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UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

The failure to give any meaningful advice or direction with regards to how to reduce energy consumption (or reward for doing it) is especially criminal; there is scope for many (most) people (and certainly most businesses) to reduce their energy consumption relatively painlessly and it should have been relentlessly put out ever since the "special operation" started.

Yes. There was the one looming plan touted in the press a while back, paying people with smart meters to reduce their electricity use during peak hours, but the amounts people would be paid sounded far less than was originally touted in the press.
 
Timescales for new nuclear builds are a problem though. I'm not pro-nuclear but would probably hedge my bets by going for both nuclear and storage in the medium terms, so long as as much funding attention is paid to storage as it is nuclear. Neither will fix the short-term issues though, although there are plans to extend the life of a couple of the current nuclear reactors which are currently due to reach end of life within a couple of years.

Whilst I'm not going to argue that timescales for nuclear are a problem (they are - at least a decade lead time to get one up and running, and currently more like two decades), I'd argue that timescales for any significant power schemes are a problem. I'm not pro-nuclear because of some sort of fetish, just that it's one of the few viable technologies we can build today that can meet our medium-term energy needs whilst weaning us off fossil fuels and building out improved renewable and storage technologies. Even with the colossal number of breakthroughs and builds of renewables, we're still miles away from supplanting gas, coal and "biomass" for our baseload. Grid-scale storage technologies (even just to the extent of balancing load rather than storing it) are still in their infancy.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that privatisation is largely to blame. Long-term planning for the future needs forecasting and worst-case scenarios went out of the window and power shortages become supply/demand profit opportunities. A nationalised energy infrastructure could (and did) plan ahead for the benefit of the whole grid, and not just the profitable parts of it.
 
Yes. There was the one looming plan touted in the press a while back, paying people with smart meters to reduce their electricity use during peak hours, but the amounts people would be paid sounded far less than was originally touted in the pres
.
I can't see myself concentrating all my energy use into midnight to 7 am :hmm:
And my evening meal has been getting later and later recently.
I suppose I might switch to eating lunch instead in preparation for life in France ...

1664833213429.png
 
That already happens, especially since europe has more gas storage capacity than the UK. But I dont think there is a 'first dibs' component to this arrangement, and most of the interconnected systems between nations are setup on the basis that if one country has a shortfall, others will have spare capacity to send their way, an assumption that will probably get into trouble this winter.
Well there did used to be a last dibs on russian gas as we were the last on the pipeline so I don't see how there couldn't be a 'first dibs' if the gas was imported via the UK.

Last I heard when Russia were threatening to cut off the gas supply that most of Europe's gas storage was virtually full with enough to keep them going through winter. :hmm:
 
A lot of the gas we import comes in in tankers from US and the gulf. A lot of European countries don't have the facilities to receive these ships and then there are landlocked countries that can't possibly receive a tanker load of gas.

It maybe possible that we could unload the tankers here and pipe the gas to Europe via the existing pipeline but then we would get first dibs on the gas.
I am reliably told that 30% of the UK's gas demand is met in the form of liquefied natural gas through Milford Haven port.
 
We can also look back at articles from August when the UK received a LNG shipment from Australia:


Energy analyst David Cox said the Australian shipment was a sign of how "desperate" European countries were to secure alternative sources of gas before winter.

"European nations are desperately trying to store up before the winter comes," he told the BBC.

"This shipment isn't necessarily for the UK, because we don't have the storage to keep it anyway. But I imagine most of it will be exported to Europe where they're racing to increase their supplies."

This is the first time Australia has shipped a liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo to Europe in at least six years, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the news.

The UK gets about half of its gas directly from the North Sea. A further third comes via pipelines from Norway and it also buys LNG from Qatar, the US and a handful of other countries.

Anyway its certainly true that EU countries raced to hit a target for how ful they could get their storage by November, and managed to beat those targets. I find it hard to tell whether that will be enough on its own to avoid problems, since supplies from storage are always made use of in winter to compensate for the much higher levels of demand. And theres also the question of whether gas can be sent from storage to all the right places at the right time and in the right quantities to cover all demand scenarios.

As I've probably said before, I dont consider massive shortages and associated blackouts to be completely inevitable. But the risk of them increases when wiggle room, diversity of supply and resilience decreases, so this stuff has to be planned for. Especially given that wiggle room/margins usually need to be maintained to cover for any unexpected outages and technical issues, even before the weather and any possible further shenanigans by Russia are factored in. Plus France has been having a nightmare with its nuclear power stations, and is in a race against time to get enough of them back online again to meet their winter demand, a situation that has ramifications for countries that normally expect to receive some of Frances surplus electricity.
 

From Trends in UK imports and exports of fuels - Office for National Statistics

3. A closer look at gas​


The UK imported £19.6 billion of gas in 2021; a notable increase of 312% from £4.8 billion in 2020. The UK exported £3.4 billion of gas in 2021, increasing by 167% from £1.3 billion in 2020.

The trade in gas has been consistently high since the latter half of 2021, as global gas demand increased following the conclusion of many of the strictest coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic restrictions. Domestic renewable energy production was low in 2021 (PDF, 4.1MB) because of less favourable weather conditions, resulting in higher gas demand for electricity generation. Additionally, higher gas demand in Asia as part of a shift away from dirtier fuels such as coal, supply constraints and lower than usual gas storage levels in Europe have also pushed prices up.

The UK imports around 50% of its gas from the international market and most homes in England and Wales are heated by mains gas supply. Gas is also used to fuel around a third of the UK's electricity generation, so rising gas prices will usually lead to rising electricity prices.

Norway is typically the UK's largest gas supplier. In 2021, the UK imported £14.5 billion of gas from Norway, which accounted for 77% of all gas imports (Figure 3). Other countries the UK imports gas from include Qatar, the United States and Russia. Almost half of the UK's gas exports in 2021 were to Ireland (47.2%), and the Netherlands was also a large export partner (28.2%).
 
Having spoken to an old friend who worked for the national grid earlier this century, and read between the lines of a few documents and found some important news in the business press, I now have this angle:

Traditional UK way of handling energy in recent decades has been looking especially precarious because it drank way too much market kool aid of the short-term variety. Lots of reliance on rapid price changes being able to change the direction of electricity and gas travel so that supplies come into the UK when needed, rather than relying on long term contracted guaranteed supply from various partners. But possible conditions this winter have undermined confidence that these market mechanisms can be relied upon to actually meet our needs this time.

Just one very important example of this would be gas from Norway. For example in the early winter planning document for gas in this country (as opposed to the full proper winter report which is due out in a couple of days), one scenario they were having to consider was:

To show how import dependency changes for the more flexible supplies, if Norway was incentivised to maximise flows to Europe.

That quote is from https://www.nationalgrid.com/gas-transmission/document/140316/download

Well it now looks like they woke up to the possibility of the traditional market approach all going wrong, got cold feet and a proper long-term supply deal is being done which could make a very real difference to our prospects this winter.

eg see this story from Bloomberg today:


The UK is on the cusp of securing a natural-gas contract with Norway for as long as 20 years in a bid to stave off the risk of winter blackouts, people familiar with the matter said.

A deal is expected to be secured next week, though ministers are still locked in negotiations with their Norwegian counterparts on price, the amount of gas and the length of the contract, according to one of the people, who asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters.

Not just the crucial supplies from Norway either:

Prime Minister Liz Truss earlier hinted at the talks, telling Sky News that “we are looking at long-term energy contracts with other countries,” while adding “I have not signed any deal.” The Times said the government is also holding negotiations with Qatar.

Earlier, Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg told a fringe meeting at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham that he’d just been talking to a “friendly country” about energy supplies.

The UK is also in discussions with US liquefied natural gas producers for supply contracts as long as 20 years, Bloomberg reported last month. The government’s energy task force that’s leading negotiations on new gas deals is headed by Madelaine McTernan, a former M&A banker who headed the UK’s vaccine group that procured Covid shots during the pandemic.
 
I've been looking at articles saying that just recently the UK became a net exporter of energy.



However, I think that means a net exporter in certain quarters of the year - rather than a net exporter over an annual cycle, right?
 
Having spoken to an old friend who worked for the national grid earlier this century, and read between the lines of a few documents and found some important news in the business press, I now have this angle:

Traditional UK way of handling energy in recent decades has been looking especially precarious because it drank way too much market kool aid of the short-term variety. Lots of reliance on rapid price changes being able to change the direction of electricity and gas travel so that supplies come into the UK when needed, rather than relying on long term contracted guaranteed supply from various partners. But possible conditions this winter have undermined confidence that these market mechanisms can be relied upon to actually meet our needs this time.

Just one very important example of this would be gas from Norway. For example in the early winter planning document for gas in this country (as opposed to the full proper winter report which is due out in a couple of days), one scenario they were having to consider was:



That quote is from https://www.nationalgrid.com/gas-transmission/document/140316/download

Well it now looks like they woke up to the possibility of the traditional market approach all going wrong, got cold feet and a proper long-term supply deal is being done which could make a very real difference to our prospects this winter.

eg see this story from Bloomberg today:




Not just the crucial supplies from Norway either:

Private Eye was warning we’d gone full free market and were a potential bad month away from disaster since about 2015. To much expectation the market could pick up the slack and reliance on emergency gas generators to make up shortfall. Then we got rid of a huge chunk of gas storage to boot
 
I've been looking at articles saying that just recently the UK became a net exporter of energy.



However, I think that means a net exporter in certain quarters of the year - rather than a net exporter over an annual cycle, right?

Yes. To match the articles you should say electricity not energy, and there are also contradictions between different articles, with that first one claiming 'for the first time ever' while others say its just the first time for 12 years. And for some reason yet another version of the story says 'for the first time since 2017' - I dont know which of those is most accurate but in any case its only a story of one particular quarter, though later analysis might well discover that this persisted in the subsequent quarter too, I dont know. Britain "exported electricity for first time since 2017 in second quarter' - Energy Live News

Its a story of multiple things coinciding:

France built too many nuclear power stations decades ago, ending up with ore supply than domestic demand required, so ended up running them at less than optimal capacity and exporting lots of electricity from them to other countries. But they got into a big mess with their nuclear power station fleet this year, due to delayed maintenance and some corrosion issues that forced many plants offline. So we've had a reversal of the usual situation, we've been exporting electricity to them instead of the other way around. They are trying to get many plants back online before winter but the situation continues to cause concern.

We got a lot of LNG, but some of the pipelines to move it to europe were under maintenance during the quarter in question. Combined with lower domestic demand and lower generation prices than the continent, this opened up the opportunity to turn some of that gas into electricity here and then export it to europe.

Probably some other factors too. Our wind generation capacity is quite impressive these days, at least when weather conditions are favourable. And at some point Norway had some hydroelectric problems due to lack of rainfall so we've probably been turning some of their gas into electricity and sending it back to them, but I dont know whether this situation coincided with the quarter that those articles are talking about.

Its been an 'interesting' period for sure but the demand picture changes rather a lot in winter and so I dont know to what extent this stuff will persist, too many variables for me to have a stab at that, including much uncertainty about the weather and how many reactors France will get back online.
 
Private Eye was warning we’d gone full free market and were a potential bad month away from disaster since about 2015. To much expectation the market could pick up the slack and reliance on emergency gas generators to make up shortfall. Then we got rid of a huge chunk of gas storage to boot

Yes its been an issue for ages. Correcting some of those errors by going for long term guaranteed contracts rather than relying on short-term price based market signals to balance everything is a significant step in the right direction. The loss of gas storage capacity was a major blunder and wont be so easy to fix.
 
Yes, that sort of UK fuels picture is dominated by the history of north sea oil and gas production.

There will be occasional stories about unleashing new north sea oil and gas projects but there are no serious claims that we'll ever again reach the levels of production seen at the peak. At times enough has been done to halt the steep declines, and even to raise production a bit, but nothing like restoring it to the very peak levels. The peak relied on some of the easiest, largest fields being exploited at impressive rates, and those days are well behind us. Nor does fracking in the UK context hold the serious prospect of making a really huge difference to magnitude of production, unlike the USA for example.

Therefore if we are ever to return to a state where we are a net exporter or neutral, much of the action will have to take place in areas such as transition to renewable/non-fuel sources, and reductions in demand/improvements to efficiency. I suppose technically if we were ever to end up with a really large scale system of turning renewable electricity into hydrogen then the resulting hydrogen will probably be labelled a fuel, but this is a technicality of terminology and much uncertainty remains as to whether big talk about hydrogen economies will actually become reality at any point.
 
A large chunk of that electricity is generated using imported fuels though. And there is all the fuel used for things other than mass generation. And then there is any fuel that's expired. So it doesn't tell us much about whether the UK is a net importer or exporter of energy.
 
A large chunk of that electricity is generated using imported fuels though. And there is all the fuel used for things other than mass generation. And then there is any fuel that's expired. So it doesn't tell us much about whether the UK is a net importer or exporter of energy.

During the lifetime of any crises intended to be discussed in this thread, the overall picture of the UK as a net importer isnt going to change. Well massive disruption to imports and massive resulting demand destruction could change the magnitude of it, in the similar way to how we saw the pandemic affect demand, but under those conditions we still wouldnt expect to see us flip back to being a net exporter. I do think it was useful to touch on that picture and some of its detail in order to provide the larger context of our energy situation, but I dont think its something to dwell on for much longer in this thread.

In contrast to that, electricity imports vs exports are likely to fluctuate a lot during this period. The figures wont tell a single story on their own, as already mentioned it will be a combined story of various prices, our demand needs vs those of some european countries, our quantities of gas & gas power station surplus availability, Frances nuclear situation, the Netherlands situation, Norways situation, electricity interconnector capacity, hourly changes to demand, how strongly the wind is blowing, and more. At the moment it tells a story of that is part normal, part an inversion of the traditional norms due to the situation this part of the world finds itself in. If there are particular periods of crisis in one or more countries this autumn or winter, the electricity import/export picture may well reflect some dramatic details of that at times. Some of those stories may be demonstrated via a few key hours of data, or a few days worth. I'm sure they will be drawn attention to if such situations arise. In the meantime it may well be useful for interested people to study the 'new normal' fluctuations in this data so they can see how this stuff is behaving on non-doom days.
 
My questions about to what extent the UK is a net importer/exporter of energy are mainly to do with me trying to think through what it would mean, if all of our power generation and fuel extraction were to be nationalised.

That is, if it were all state owned then the proportion of any fossil fuel extracted, or renewable energy generated, that was needed for the UK's own use, could be sold (to domestic or commercial consumers in the UK) at a price that would be decoupled from global wholesale prices. So I'm trying to get a picture of whether that would be 25% or 50% or 75% or 100% of the energy the UK uses.

But I guess that's a bit off topic for this thread.
 
My questions about to what extent the UK is a net importer/exporter of energy are mainly to do with me trying to think through what it would mean, if all of our power generation and fuel extraction were to be nationalised.

That is, if it were all state owned then the proportion of any fossil fuel extracted, or renewable energy generated, that was needed for the UK's own use, could be sold (to domestic or commercial consumers in the UK) at a price that would be decoupled from global wholesale prices. So I'm trying to get a picture of whether that would be 25% or 50% or 75% or 100% of the energy the UK uses.

But I guess that's a bit off topic for this thread.

I dont mind drifts into somewhat off-topic areas as long as they are still energy/electricity related and dont last too long. Especially at this stage when we are still a while away from the period of maximum risk to security of electricity supply.

If I were attempting that sort of calculation I suppose I'd probably have to remove oil & petrol from the picture because the somewhat complex realities of different grades of oil and different sorts of refineries and refinery capacity variations by nation means the picture of that fuel often involves exporting unrefined stuff and certain grades of oil and importing other grades and refined products.

I'd probably try that exercise with gas on its own. And I'd leave some of the calculations until we see whether the news the other fay about the UK switching approach and trying to agree some long-term gas supply contracts with the nations we get most of our imports from come to fruition, and at what price we get locked into with those.

Other complications which will limit how much room we had to deviate from market price for gas when it comes to our own north sea gas will be all the return on investment stuff that companies want in return for production of those gas fields.

And when considering what price we might try to offer our own domestically source energy to consumers for, the other day when responding to someones comment about rationing, I was remiss in leaving out the price-driven form of rationing/demand destruction. Governments, the media etc can be rather coy about exploring this topic properly, but its a feature of this century that on several levels when it comes to trying to balance supply and demand, trying to transition, trying to make progress when it comes to things like efficiency, a relatively high price can be considered to have some desirable effects, not just undesirable ones. They dont mind admitting this in certain limited ways, such as when talking about green levies and providing impetus and incentive for change, but they arent so keen to tell the most dramatic stories about deliberate demand destruction via pricing people out of the market.
 
An information campaign abandoned (for now):


Ministers have stepped back from mooted plans to launch a public information campaign to encourage households to reduce their energy use this winter.

A campaign asking households to turn their thermostats down and use their dishwashers and washing machines at times when energy demand is lower has been discussed between the business department, energy companies and the network operator National Grid.

However, the business department on Wednesday said there are now “no plans for the government to tell the public to reduce usage for the sake of our energy supplies”.

The article also mentions that the National Grids report is coming out on Thursday. And contains a smattering of woes, including:

National Grid’s outlook for winter energy supplies will be the first comprehensive assessment of the risk of blackouts this winter. The eagerly awaited document should show how resilient Britain’s energy supplies are over the coming months. An early view, published in August, showed that the UK should be able to meet its energy demand in the coming months. However, since then Norway has indicated it may prioritise supplying its domestic market over exporting power.

Government analysis has predicted that Britain could experience power cuts for four days in January if there were gas shortages and the weather was particularly severe.
 
An information campaign abandoned (for now):




The article also mentions that the National Grids report is coming out on Thursday. And contains a smattering of woes, including:
they wouldnt do a save water thing during the drought either - its pure ideology about the state not intervening - idiocy dressed up as principle
 
An information campaign abandoned (for now):




The article also mentions that the National Grids report is coming out on Thursday. And contains a smattering of woes, including:

It is remarkable how stupid these people are - they've somehow failed to learn that dealing with a problem well can lead to people having a positive opinion of them. Most toddlers understand that.
 
Well there are many variables, there wont be certainty and it will be a combination of factors that either lead us to woe or allow us to dodge the bullets.

Thursdays National Grid report isnt going to be able to spell out exactly what will happen, it will just describe things such as what we face under scenarios such as their reasonable worst case scenario. Thats life, thats planning. I'll be talking plenty about such scenarios until they either happen or dont come to fruition.

Anyway, todays front page of the TImes includes this - I havent found an online version yet.

Screenshot 2022-10-06 at 00.19.jpg

Its all very well securing commitments to keep interconnectors open, but which direction they flow at any moment in time will depend on all the usual factors and so certainties will be hard to come by even if the spirit of cooperation is kept alive and well on the political level. And it would be unusual to expect any government to put the energy needs of other countries above its own needs if the shit hits the fan.
 
Well there are many variables, there wont be certainty and it will be a combination of factors that either lead us to woe or allow us to dodge the bullets.

Thursdays National Grid report isnt going to be able to spell out exactly what will happen, it will just describe things such as what we face under scenarios such as their reasonable worst case scenario. Thats life, thats planning. I'll be talking plenty about such scenarios until they either happen or dont come to fruition.

Anyway, todays front page of the TImes includes this - I havent found an online version yet.

View attachment 345970

Its all very well securing commitments to keep interconnectors open, but which direction they flow at any moment in time will depend on all the usual factors and so certainties will be hard to come by even if the spirit of cooperation is kept alive and well on the political level. And it would be unusual to expect any government to put the energy needs of other countries above its own needs if the shit hits the fan.
In any case, a cold calm weather system affecting the UK is likely to affect parts of northern Europe too, so everyone will need more power.
 
re-reading the thread & the present windy blasts around my ears reminded me of this site


a quick look revealed that 42% of current supply [10:20 6th Oct 2022] is being provided by wind generation ...

It's great when the wind blows, I remember back in August it was as little 2.5% - 10% over a number of days.
 
It's great when the wind blows, I remember back in August it was as little 2.5% - 10% over a number of days.
aye, something that needs to be developed is a means of "storing" electricity generated on windy days ...

I know that the pumped storage HEP schemes are used in this way, IMO there needs to be more, similar projects.
Also, we need very many more "mini" and "micro" hydro schemes. At least it is possible to "retro-fit" many reservoirs.
 
Also see this kind of estimate:

The UK has wasted more than 1,300GWh of wind since the start of the energy crisis in September 2021 due to the lack of energy storage capacity.

That’s one of the findings of a new report by energy storage developer Highview Power which suggests as a result of the lack of an efficient battery capacity, the UK spent more money turning off wind farms and using gas as a backup, at a cost of more than £390 million since September 2021.

The analysis estimated the wasted wind energy, was enough to power half a million homes a day.


I think quite a lot is wasted at night too, and we need various things to help somewhat even out the fluctuations between peak and minimum electricity use over each 24 hour cycle. As well as large-scale storage solutions, there is often discussion about per-household batteries. Sometimes this appears in the press in the form of ideas about a future where far more people have electric cars, and charging those overnight, and potentially then using their batteries for stuff other than travel. There are also the sort of large home batteries that Nissan, Tesla and others offer to homes that have many thousands of pounds available to spend on such things- these are often thought about in the context of homes with solar panels but you can charge these from the grid too.
 
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