Effects - current and potential of the worlds sanctions on Russia

[Smangus]

Hi All

I am interested in the current and an potential effects of the sanctions on Russia financial, cultural ,sporting etc that are being imposed. It strikes me that Russia and Putin are going to be very isolated very quickly. Also how Russia will react as a society and whether this will prompt internal change or lead to more severe repression.

While I support them I'm sure there is an element of opportunism here, a chance to give Putin a good kick by the rest of the world at the first opportunity presenting itself for 20 years+

Obviously ordinary Russians will be hit hardest , this is the biggest (new) set of sanctions against a country I can remember in my lifetime and given the world is so interconnected these days seems to have the potential for greater impact than ever.

Anyway thoughts anyone?

Cheers

 

[Dogsauce]

It’s not the first opportunity in 20 years, there was good justification in 2014 and some sanctions then which have impacted the Russian economy.

 

[Idris2002]

China gets a huge boost as the new global superpower.

 

[Badgers]

Not vouching for the source but...

 

[ska invita]

Theres a good article here from a knowledgeable (though quite trad Marxist) economist about what impact the sanctions will have.
He highlights lots of ways that the Russian state has already insulated itself from potential impacts - of course not fully

From sanctions to slump? - Weekly Worker

Michael Roberts looks at the dreadful consequences of the economic war being waged against Russia

weeklyworker.co.uk

The most interesting bit of the article for me though came at the end -and is not about sanctions, but about potential spoils of war:

QUOTE: "Of course, much depends on how the war pans out. If Putin can gain control of Ukraine, that opens up significant riches to be exploited. Ukraine is rich in natural resources, particularly in mineral deposits. It possesses the world’s largest reserves of commercial-grade iron ore – 30 billion tonnes of ore, or around one-fifth of the global total. It ranks second in terms of known natural gas reserves in Europe, which today remain largely untapped. Ukraine’s mostly flat geography and high-quality soil composition make the country a big regional agricultural player. The country is the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat and the largest exporter of seed oils like sunflower and rapeseed. Coal mining, chemicals, mechanical products (aircraft, turbines, locomotives and tractors) and shipbuilding are also important sectors of the Ukrainian economy.

All of this remains to be fully exploited. The EU and the US have also been drooling over the prospect of getting hold of these resources. As I recently showed,1 the Ukraine government plans to sell off huge tracts of land to foreign and domestic investors to develop. That could deliver huge dividends to whichever power controls the country. Either way, once the war is over and after thousands have been killed or injured, Ukraine’s people will see little benefit."

- it does also point to some of the potential commodity resource motivations underlying this conflict.

 

[Dogsauce]

There’s a lot of what might be termed more ‘cultural’ sanctions, stopping stuff like Netflix and Apple Pay working - not things that will mean people starve but will piss off the middle classes and young people, you can’t have nice things, might encourage some to ask why, maybe motivate protests (or resentment at the west). Curious how this will play out.

 

[ska invita]

on the subject of sports sanctions, ive just realised that the invasion came 3 days after the end of the winter olympics - timetabled in perhaps.

 

[existentialist]

RT America shuts its doors...

RT America ceases productions and lays off most of its staff

RT America will cease productions and lay off most of its staff, according to a memo CNN obtained from T&R Productions, the production company behind the Russian state-funded network.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Smangus]

on the subject of sports sanctions, ive just realised that the invasion came 3 days after the end of the winter olympics - timetabled in perhaps.

A Chinese veto apparently

 

[Smangus]

The cost of the war to Russia is generally put as 20 million Euros a day by various sources, I have read that Putin has saved up 600 billion ?? to insulate Russia from sanctions- That's only 30 days of war -not factoring in the cost of any occupation etc . Not very much leeway for any delays. More poor planning?

Research: ‘Ukraine war costs Russian military €20 billion per day’

 

[frogwoman]

This looks plausible and its from a source I trust but I read another piece saying that medicine etc was still being supplied? kebabking you probably know more about what the sanctions do and don't cover than I do?

 

[kebabking]

frogwoman no Idea afraid - I've no idea what's covered.

There's going to be an overlap of stuff that's not sanctioned, and stuff they either can't afford, because the exchange rate, and stuff they can't buy because no one will take the ruble, or because their bank accounts don't work.

Pretty clear the economy is tanking though...

 

[bimble]

Impacts of sanctions will go far beyond the region, some people who study global supply of wheat & grains in particular are making pretty terrifying predictions about the impacts this will have on food supply especially in poorer countries who rely on Russia & Ukraine as their suppliers of these things.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine leaves global trade in tatters

Sanctions on Russia are starting to wreak havoc on global trade, with potentially devastating consequences for energy and grain importers while also generating ripple effects across a world still struggling with pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions.

www.wionews.com

Russia Invasion: Likely “Biggest Grain Supply Shock in Living Memory,” Wheat Prices Continue to Surge

David L. Stern, Alex Horton, John Hudson and Kareem Fahim reported on the front page of today’s Washington Post that, “Russian forces laid siege to key urban areas across Ukraine on

agfax.com

Russia-Ukraine crisis replaces Covid as top risk to global supply chains, Moody's says

Covid-19 drove global supply chains to the breaking point, causing shortages and sending prices skyrocketing. Just as the pandemic has calmed down, Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatens to further scramble those fragile supply chains.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Raheem]

Impacts of sanctions will go far beyond the region, some people who study global supply of wheat & grains in particular are making pretty terrifying predictions about the impacts this will have on food supply especially in poorer countries who rely on Russia & Ukraine as their suppliers of these things.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine leaves global trade in tatters

Sanctions on Russia are starting to wreak havoc on global trade, with potentially devastating consequences for energy and grain importers while also generating ripple effects across a world still struggling with pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions.

www.wionews.com

Russia Invasion: Likely “Biggest Grain Supply Shock in Living Memory,” Wheat Prices Continue to Surge

David L. Stern, Alex Horton, John Hudson and Kareem Fahim reported on the front page of today’s Washington Post that, “Russian forces laid siege to key urban areas across Ukraine on

agfax.com

Russia-Ukraine crisis replaces Covid as top risk to global supply chains, Moody's says

Covid-19 drove global supply chains to the breaking point, causing shortages and sending prices skyrocketing. Just as the pandemic has calmed down, Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatens to further scramble those fragile supply chains.

edition.cnn.com

Isn't this directly about the war, rather than the sanctions? Ukraine is one of the major producers of wheat. The sanctions shouldn't prevent Russian wheat reaching most of the world.

 

[A380]

I don’t think anyone really knows what the effects of this will be on Russia and the wider world. It’s an economy bigger than Spain’s and very integrated into the EUs. And of course almost 150m people live there. In ‘normal’ times if something on this scale had happened to the Russian economy most of the west (and China?) would be pouring resources in to prevent contagion. Now we are going 75% all out.

We might be shocked and surprised by the impact once the dust settles.

 

[gosub]

 

[Chilli.s]

They might not have any facebook, netflix or spotify, but they'll be able to keep the heating on what with all the gas we won't be buying

 

[two sheds]

The cost of the war to Russia is generally put as 20 million Euros a day by various sources, I have read that Putin has saved up 600 billion ?? to insulate Russia from sanctions- That's only 30 days of war -not factoring in the cost of any occupation etc . Not very much leeway for any delays. More poor planning?

Research: ‘Ukraine war costs Russian military €20 billion per day’

million versus billion? Ah typo 20 billion per day.

 

[Smangus]

million versus billion? Ah typo 20 billion per day.

Yeah sorry!

 

[zahir]

First moves to stop oil and gas imports from Russia.

 

[Humberto]

The state response seem to be to punish the civilians

 

[Pickman's model]

The state response seem to be to punish the civilians

that is ever the state response.

 

[not-bono-ever]

its ok tho, China State owned corporations are heavily into central command ordered negotiations with a briefcase of yuan, to take over or get a huge slab in rusal and gazprom so Russian can get some cash and get the brands out of the spotlight. so not all bad news

 

[zahir]

Nationalisation as a response to companies leaving.

 

[existentialist]

Nationalisation as a response to companies leaving.

And they will, of course, pretty much guarantee that those businesses will never trust Russia enough to return any time soon.

That will be true in spades of the aircraft leasing companies.

 

[Pickman's model]

don't like the sound of the effective suspension of the arctic council prompted by the invasion Ukraine’s Conflict Has Rippled All the Way to the Arctic: so much climate science will go undone because of the invasion and the western response.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Kind of forgot I had this - Jeremy deller from the Venice Biennale- William Morris trashing the abramovich yacht

 

[gosub]

BlackRock funds take $17 billion loss on Russia exposure, Western banks owed $121 billion

Western banks are owed over $120 billion from Russian entities, much of which they may never get back.

fortune.com

 

[zahir]

Thread on Russia's economy post-sanctions.

 

[platinumsage]

Thread on Russia's economy post-sanctions.

A two-week 255-tweet thread. Does he have a blog?