rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
My friend in shipping says that oil tankers are constantly busy at the moment taking Russian oil to India, and absolutely guaranteed 100% Indian oil on to the rest of the world
Effects - current and potential of the worlds sanctions on Russia
- Thread starter Smangus
- Start date
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hiraethified
You sound like this is a good thing.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i wonder how many articles are out there demonstrating how successful sanctions have been. because i'm seeing things like Why Western sanctions against Russia have fallen short which agree with you.
ska invita
back on the other side
i dont like it anymore than you do....
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
I don't think it's really possible to see the economic effect of the sanctions until after the fact. The Russian government is pumping billions into the economy from reserves and printing rubles and this has quite a stimulating effect on the economy, even with sanctions in place. It's a great short term solution. The problem with these sorts of thing is that they work absolutely brilliantly right up to the moment when they don't. It's hard not to crash - hard - when the stimulus is taken away, and it obviously can't be continued forever. I think we have no idea how it's actually going in terms of long-term effects, and won't until some time after the war is finished. It's simply to volatile to predict.
The main takeaway is that the Russian economy is simply too large to bring to heel in the short term with just sanctions. They may very well work long term, but it's quite likely that the war will be over before the effects really bite. There's also a cultural question of just how much the Russian public will put up with - another thing that's just not known. North Korea proves that you can weather any kind of sanctions if you've brainwashed the populace well enough.
In terms of goals, it's not all economic warfare. Russia has been unable to ramp up production of higher-tech weaponry. They're not building top-rate tanks or aircraft any faster than they were previously, and many of those are going out with lower quality equipment than they did before the war. If they hadn't been able to rely on the Soviet inheritance, the Russian Army would be a skeleton by now. Yes, they can pump out shells for artillery, but they're actually raiding barrels that have been in store for decades to equip the artillery because they've not had enough fine machine tools to ramp up tube production. The Soviet inheritance is vast, but not limitless. Though it must seem that way to the poor Ukrainians. It's another piece that will work very well right up to the moment when it doesn't any more. If this and the economy had some sort of taper effect as they bottomed out, you might see the light at the end of the tunnel. But history shows these things usually just function perfectly well until they crash.
The main takeaway is that the Russian economy is simply too large to bring to heel in the short term with just sanctions. They may very well work long term, but it's quite likely that the war will be over before the effects really bite. There's also a cultural question of just how much the Russian public will put up with - another thing that's just not known. North Korea proves that you can weather any kind of sanctions if you've brainwashed the populace well enough.
In terms of goals, it's not all economic warfare. Russia has been unable to ramp up production of higher-tech weaponry. They're not building top-rate tanks or aircraft any faster than they were previously, and many of those are going out with lower quality equipment than they did before the war. If they hadn't been able to rely on the Soviet inheritance, the Russian Army would be a skeleton by now. Yes, they can pump out shells for artillery, but they're actually raiding barrels that have been in store for decades to equip the artillery because they've not had enough fine machine tools to ramp up tube production. The Soviet inheritance is vast, but not limitless. Though it must seem that way to the poor Ukrainians. It's another piece that will work very well right up to the moment when it doesn't any more. If this and the economy had some sort of taper effect as they bottomed out, you might see the light at the end of the tunnel. But history shows these things usually just function perfectly well until they crash.
ska invita
back on the other side
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
No.
Last edited:
JimW
支那暗杀团
Yuan doing well out of financial restrictions in most recent sanctions, tech aspects probably biting hardest - no cloud or tech support for services with no local equivalent: https://carnegieendowment.org/russi.../06/finance-sanctions-russia-currency?lang=en
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will send staff to Moscow next week to review the Russian economy for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, in a move that has prompted anger and dismay across European capitals.
Officials of the Washington-based organisation will travel to the Russian capital and meet “stakeholders” before publishing an assessment of the economy and providing recommendations about how the Kremlin might improve its economic handling and tackle issues such as the climate crisis.
After Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the IMF stopped its annual consultations with Russia. The organization said it was a “mutual obligation” to carry out an article IV review of a member country and that the process was only suspended because of the volatility of economic data. The situation in Russia was now “more settled”.
On Friday, nine European countries protested against the IMF’s plans, saying it would damage the reputation of the Washington-based fund to resume dialogue with a country that had invaded another.
“We would like to express our strong dissatisfaction with such IMF plans,” the finance ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Poland said in a letter to the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, seen by Reuters.
Officials of the Washington-based organisation will travel to the Russian capital and meet “stakeholders” before publishing an assessment of the economy and providing recommendations about how the Kremlin might improve its economic handling and tackle issues such as the climate crisis.
After Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the IMF stopped its annual consultations with Russia. The organization said it was a “mutual obligation” to carry out an article IV review of a member country and that the process was only suspended because of the volatility of economic data. The situation in Russia was now “more settled”.
On Friday, nine European countries protested against the IMF’s plans, saying it would damage the reputation of the Washington-based fund to resume dialogue with a country that had invaded another.
“We would like to express our strong dissatisfaction with such IMF plans,” the finance ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Poland said in a letter to the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, seen by Reuters.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Expect a step change soon.
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