Russia mobilises - consequences and reactions

[steeplejack]

Would he dare to? I don't think so, because the war is unpopular in Belarus.
Do you know what it could be steeplejack?

View attachment 345958

link: Hanna Liubakova

Compiling a list doesn't necessarily mean mobilisation is coming.

I question whether the Belarusian armed forces are capable of launching any kind of meaningful offensive. They have two overall commands (Western / Northern) and a Southern Command is in formation but appears to be more defensive in nature. Their equipment and training is notoriously poor / outdated.

If Lukashenko orders a mobilisation, let alone an invasion of Ukraine, his regime will collapse within 2-3 months. There is around 10% support for such an action in the population; most of his senior top brass don't want it; I can't see there being maximal enthusaism for it amongst the junior officers and ranks.

The functions of Belarus' army is largely for internal security & parading on national holidays. Any invasdion of northern Ukraine would cost a huge amount and would certainly lead to Lukashenko's downfall. Given the number of Russian soldiers in the country, it may even lead to a 'civil war' as Putin tries to prop him up. Given that most conventional military functions seem to be beyond the Russian army at present, the outcome of that really is uncertain.

I suspect this is a paper / PR exercise designed to follow whatever 'agreements' were reached on his recent visit to Russia, without actually committing to military action. Belarus' change in status from a passive, to an active combatant spells the end of the regime.

 

[Yossarian]

A 35-year-old father of six volunteered when Putin announced the mobilisation. His relatives say he was dead nine days later.

Koltun called his relatives from Novosibirsk, where he and the other men from Bratsk had been sent for further preparations and training.

Gudo said her son brought 7,000 rubles (about $112) with him to Novosibirsk, but when he called on October 2, he no longer had any money. He said that at the staging grounds, unidentified people were selling "bad" vodka, that the conscripts were drinking heavily. She said Koltun told her he wasn't.

"But what the hell is going on there?" she asked.

When he called "he said that it was a complete mess," Gudo said. "He said, 'We walk and wander back and forth, everyone's drunk, they didn't give us any uniforms, there's no food.'"

"He said that he was only eating what he brought from home. How is this possible in the army?" Gudo said.

'Everyone's Drunk. No Uniforms. No Food.' Inside The Confusion Greeting Some Of Russia's Newly Mobilized Troops

At least 16 mobilized Russian soldiers have died in the 2 1/2 weeks since President Vladimir Putin announced a sweeping plan to get more troops to bolster the flagging Ukraine war effort. Though small, the number underscores the wider chaos afflicting the recruitment process.

www.rferl.org

 

[Raheem]

Compiling a list doesn't necessarily mean mobilisation is coming.

I question whether the Belarusian armed forces are capable of launching any kind of meaningful offensive. They have two overall commands (Western / Northern) and a Southern Command is in formation but appears to be more defensive in nature. Their equipment and training is notoriously poor / outdated.

If Lukashenko orders a mobilisation, let alone an invasion of Ukraine, his regime will collapse within 2-3 months. There is around 10% support for such an action in the population; most of his senior top brass don't want it; I can't see there being maximal enthusaism for it amongst the junior officers and ranks.

The functions of Belarus' army is largely for internal security & parading on national holidays. Any invasdion of northern Ukraine would cost a huge amount and would certainly lead to Lukashenko's downfall. Given the number of Russian soldiers in the country, it may even lead to a 'civil war' as Putin tries to prop him up. Given that most conventional military functions seem to be beyond the Russian army at present, the outcome of that really is uncertain.

I suspect this is a paper / PR exercise designed to follow whatever 'agreements' were reached on his recent visit to Russia, without actually committing to military action. Belarus' change in status from a passive, to an active combatant spells the end of the regime.

I wonder if the deployments to Belarus are mainly about preventing a coup there, rather than marching on Ukraine.

Only wondering, mind, and Ukrainians seem fairly convinced it's the latter.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[sleaterkinney]

Some won't even make it to Ukraine..

 

[steeplejack]

I wonder if the deployments to Belarus are mainly about preventing a coup there, rather than marching on Ukraine.

Only wondering, mind, and Ukrainians seem fairly convinced it's the latter.

Impossible to tell, but the alarmed tweet above is from a Ukrainian film director-turned-soldier who is working in that sector.

So difficult to tell what is happening and what not- signals very contradictory.

 

[strung out]

Russia's mobilised men are starting to come back in coffins.

 

[Cid]

There are reports of a mass shooting at a training ground in Belgorod... RIA says two 'terrorists' from unspecified CIS country killed 11/wounded 15 'volunteers willing to participate in a special operation in Ukraine'. Both were killed. On front page of RIA news at the moment.

I'm putting in this thread for obvious reading between the lines reasons. Though of course there could be other scenarios.

 

[agricola]

There are reports of a mass shooting at a training ground in Belgorod... RIA says two 'terrorists' from unspecified CIS country killed 11/wounded 15 'volunteers willing to participate in a special operation in Ukraine'. Both were killed. On front page of RIA news at the moment.

I'm putting in this thread for obvious reading between the lines reasons. Though of course there could be other scenarios.

poor bastards

 

[existentialist]

Russia's mobilised men are starting to come back in coffins.

There are some interesting reports of supposed "mobilisitsky" actually turning out to be reservists or contract soldiers who claim to be "mobilised" to get gentler treatment from Ukraine...

Interesting fact: the word "mobil-" refers to "mobilise". The word "mogil" is the Russian for "grave". The term "mogilistsky" crops up a lot in reference to the mobilisation. Hmm

 

[turing test]

This thread is bleak. My dad dodged the draft in the US in the 70s. So I like this song about draft dodgers.

 

[two sheds]

"Remember Alice?"

along with "one two three what are we fighting for?"

 

[turing test]

That is a big pile of garbage your talking about.

 

[bluescreen]

Fast-tracked mass weddings for mobilised soldiers

 

[Cid]

Fast-tracked mass weddings for mobilised soldiers

I'm shocked and appalled that the official has a Rode wireless go, but couldn't be arsed to get a nice compact lav to plug into it, instead of having that chunky base unit stuck on her dress.

 

[Raheem]

Seems like Moscow has ended call-ups and given some kind of amnesty to dodgers. Probably illegally, because only the president is supposed to have that authority.

 

[teqniq]

Short thread, grim:

 

[NoXion]

Short thread, grim:

That's supposed to be a toilet? Looks more like a place where you keep livestock.

 

[RD2003]

Somewhere up this thread I said '...just because a Russian is critical of this war, or the apparent lack of preparation, and doesn't want to go to his probable death, it doesn't necessarily mean he's not a patriot or imperialist-minded.' This Georgian author seems to agree somewhat.

Why we are wary of Russian émigrés in Georgia – so soon after Russian invaders | Davit Gabunia

In this, one of a series of essays on the war in Ukraine from countries in or neighbouring the former Soviet bloc, a Georgian playwright says the government is out of step with the anti-Putin popular mood

www.theguardian.com

'At first glance, there is no problem at all in a noble act of hospitality – Georgia giving shelter to people who do not want to fight in war is truly a kind act. Beneath the surface, however, problems are brewing. Even without official numbers, a brief walk around central parts of Tbilisi is enough to confirm that the language predominantly spoken in the streets now is Russian.

Few, if any, of these displaced Russians, even if they are fleeing a totalitarian regime and positioning themselves against the war, seem keen to show off their pacifist ideas once safely in Georgia. Apart from a couple of small-scale demos, I cannot recall any significant acts of protest by relocated Russians against the war, let alone in support of Ukraine. At the end of September a popular joke circulating on Georgian social media went: “Oh, man, it is exhausting to read thousands of posts by Russian migrants freely criticising Putin’s politics and the war in Ukraine.” Of course, the truth is very few Russians have taken advantage of the (still existing) freedom of speech in Georgia.'

'Some are more vocal in expressing their disapproval of the graffiti in the streets supporting Ukraine or comparing Putin to male genitalia. When a bar in Tblisi began asking its Russian visitors for “visas”, issued if they ticked a “Glory to Ukraine” box, many Russians, including the reality TV star Ksenia Sobchak, protested vociferously on social media. I witnessed a Russian customer in my local cafe storm out swearing obscenities when a staff member, who did not speak Russian, politely told her the wifi password was “StandwithUkraine”.'

 

[Dystopiary]

Ukrainians have been saying this a lot. (See also isn't it great that people support Navalny?)

BTW Ksenia Sochak isn't just a reality TV star, she's Putin's goddaughter. Her father is considered by many to have played a massive part in Putin's rise to where he is today.

 

[RD2003]

Ukrainians have been saying this a lot. (See also isn't it great that people support Navalny?)

BTW Ksenia Sochak isn't just a reality TV star, she's Putin's goddaughter. Her father is considered by many to have played a massive part in Putin's rise to where he is today.

Indeed, and I was surprised the Georgian author didn't mention her father. I remember from the time I spent there that he was one of the star turns of the coming New Russia, and immensely popular among those who fancied themselves liberals. Putin was a mere background figure in Sobchak's St Petersburg, whom I doubt anybody had ever heard of even in that city.

The article interested me in that it chimed with my experience that you find a streak of Russian nationalism even in those you thought the least likely of people.

 

[RD2003]

Russian journalist and Putin’s rumoured goddaughter flees to Lithuania

Ksenia Sobchak, media personality and daughter of Vladimir Putin’s one-time boss, was subject of arrest order

www.theguardian.com

' “Sobchak always tried to sit on both chairs,” Alexander Rodniansky, a prominent Ukrainian-born movie director and longtime friend, wrote on his Instagram channel on Thursday, referring to her journalism while maintaining personal connections to the ruling elite.'

 

[frogwoman]

Ukrainians have been saying this a lot. (See also isn't it great that people support Navalny?)

BTW Ksenia Sochak isn't just a reality TV star, she's Putin's goddaughter. Her father is considered by many to have played a massive part in Putin's rise to where he is today.

I know someone who voted for her!

Widely seen as like a caricature of a feminist the same way as Zhirinovsky was a Putin approved caricature of the far right etc

 

[RD2003]

As I said somewhere above with regard to those fleeing the draft, it doesn't matter if you oppose or support the war, if you're Russian you're under suspicion...

Russian TV station in Latvia loses licence over Ukraine war coverage

TV Rain had relocated from Russia soon after invasion but on-air remarks by presenter were deemed to take Moscow’s side

www.theguardian.com

 

[Ax^]

damn NATO for starting this war

 

[Dystopiary]

As I said somewhere above with regard to those fleeing the draft, it doesn't matter if you oppose or support the war, if you're Russian you're under suspicion...

Russian TV station in Latvia loses licence over Ukraine war coverage

TV Rain had relocated from Russia soon after invasion but on-air remarks by presenter were deemed to take Moscow’s side

www.theguardian.com

There were very good reasons for TVRain/Dozhd losing its licence. Using Latvia, yet another country where people have suffered under Russian colonialism and over whom it still maintains a sense of entitlement, to push its propaganda, doesn't make TVR a victim of random xenophobia.

Bad Baltic Takes on thread reader:

Just last week, it was fined by Latvia’s media regulator for again falsely showing Crimea as Russia and calling Russian troops “our boys”.

As it’s now a Latvian channel, that’s legally problematic in all kinds of ways relating to rules around accuracy in broadcasting, protecting the constitutional order of Latvia, and not using the country as a base to support terrorism and genocide abroad.

The regulator fined the channel €10,000 and said that was the channel’s 2nd serious violation in recent months, while pointing out that a third could lead to its license being revoked.

But that wasn’t TV Rain’s biggest controversy of last week.

Host Alexey Korostelev said TV Rain helps Russian troops “for example, with equipment & basic amenities at the front”.

(This thread by Madi Kapparov contains further info on TV Rain/Dozhd.)

And the sense of entitlement continued...

 

[RD2003]

View attachment 354844

There were very good reasons for TVRain/Dozhd losing its licence. Using Latvia, yet another country where people have suffered under Russian colonialism and over whom it still maintains a sense of entitlement, to push its propaganda, doesn't make TVR a victim of random xenophobia.

Bad Baltic Takes on thread reader:



(This thread by Madi Kapparov contains further info on TV Rain/Dozhd.)

And the sense of entitlement continued...

View attachment 354843

It's an anti-Putin station which relocated to Latvia, now being banned mostly for the slightly ambiguous comments of one presenter.

The main point I was making related to something I said further up the thread, however, which is that, like those fleeing the miltary mobilisation, just because they're anti-Putin, it doesn't necessarily mean they don't have, to one degree or another, nationalistic attitudes. This also applied to anti-Soviet dissidents such as Solzhenitsyn.

In the case of those fleeing the draft, they're not necessarily anti-Putin either. Many will be just anti-being killed in a war.

If western authorities are only prepared to work with Russians who have no trace of nationalism at all in them, they might find themselves looking at a very small group of people.

 

[clusterfarce]

Yesterday Mr Putin said that 300 000 had been mobilised. 150 000 sent to the front and 150 000 in training.
My thought on the training claims was where, by whom and with what?
I have seen numerous Russians claim that a huge army is being trained for the offensive. I do not believe them.
That said 150 000 is a huge number of defensive troops for this war. Perhaps it has slowed the rate of Ukrainian advances. But in that case its an incredible number for such a small gain. It may be the Russian master plan is to use untrained conscripts to blunt Ukraines offensives then to try to grind attritional gains from their part trained 150 000? Its a plan just not a long term one.
Either way the bleakest of situations.

 

[ska invita]

Yesterday Mr Putin said that 300 000 had been mobilised. 150 000 sent to the front and 150 000 in training.
My thought on the training claims was where, by whom and with what?
I have seen numerous Russians claim that a huge army is being trained for the offensive. I do not believe them.
That said 150 000 is a huge number of defensive troops for this war. Perhaps it has slowed the rate of Ukrainian advances. But in that case its an incredible number for such a small gain. It may be the Russian master plan is to use untrained conscripts to blunt Ukraines offensives then to try to grind attritional gains from their part trained 150 000? Its a plan just not a long term one.
Either way the bleakest of situations.

i guess when youre an occupying army you need a lot of army to occupy with

 

[Ax^]

Yesterday Mr Putin said that 300 000 had been mobilised. 150 000 sent to the front and 150 000 in training.
My thought on the training claims was where, by whom and with what?
I have seen numerous Russians claim that a huge army is being trained for the offensive. I do not believe them.
That said 150 000 is a huge number of defensive troops for this war. Perhaps it has slowed the rate of Ukrainian advances. But in that case its an incredible number for such a small gain. It may be the Russian master plan is to use untrained conscripts to blunt Ukraines offensives then to try to grind attritional gains from their part trained 150 000? Its a plan just not a long term one.
Either way the bleakest of situations.

hoping he can rebuild his army wear down Ukraine by hitting infrastructure over the winter
but who is left to take charge of training the new troops for the spring offensive after 9 months of war