Effects - current and potential of the worlds sanctions on Russia

[Ĝasper]

Kinda off topic here, but it makes me angry how journalists on the BBC etc are linking the war in Ukraine and inflation the UK, while energy companies have 300% increases in profits. All the while hinting at a "just give up Ukraine, our support is waning" message.

 

[RD2003]

France and Spain on Wednesday lambasted the European Commission’s proposed price cap on wholesale natural gas, set so high that critics have questioned if it would ever be used.

Agence France-Presse reports:

The EU executive on Tuesday unveiled a gas “safety ceiling” of 275 euros per megawatt hour as the bloc grapples with high energy prices spurred by Moscow’s war in Ukraine and supply cuts.

But the conditions meant the cap would only kick in when EU gas prices breach that threshold for two weeks running, calculated on advance purchases through the bloc’s main gas price benchmark, TTF.

The cap was also contingent on the TTF price for liquefied natural gas - an easily transportable form of gas that can be shipped worldwide - exceeding 58 euros for 10 days within that same two-week period.

The only time the TTF gas price has gone above the 275-euro limit was between August 22 and 29 this year.

It was running at around 120 euros in trading on Tuesday.

Spanish ecological transition minister Teresa Ribera called the commission’s proposal a “joke”, saying it would cause steeper price hikes and hamper efforts to tame decades-high inflation.

The French energy transition ministry criticised an “insufficient” scheme that “does not respond to the reality of the market”.

“The commission must propose an operational text, not simply a text that is political grandstanding and may have negative or no effects,” it said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08edd1a15205ef#block-637e759f8f08edd1a15205ef

 

[gosub]

Last ditch EU talks over Russian oil price cap

There’s growing pressure from the US and the G7 for the EU to agree on a price for Russian crude.

www.google.com

Dec 5 shaping up to be an interesting day

 

[gosub]

France and Spain on Wednesday lambasted the European Commission’s proposed price cap on wholesale natural gas, set so high that critics have questioned if it would ever be used.

Agence France-Presse reports:

The EU executive on Tuesday unveiled a gas “safety ceiling” of 275 euros per megawatt hour as the bloc grapples with high energy prices spurred by Moscow’s war in Ukraine and supply cuts.

But the conditions meant the cap would only kick in when EU gas prices breach that threshold for two weeks running, calculated on advance purchases through the bloc’s main gas price benchmark, TTF.

The cap was also contingent on the TTF price for liquefied natural gas - an easily transportable form of gas that can be shipped worldwide - exceeding 58 euros for 10 days within that same two-week period.

The only time the TTF gas price has gone above the 275-euro limit was between August 22 and 29 this year.

It was running at around 120 euros in trading on Tuesday.

Spanish ecological transition minister Teresa Ribera called the commission’s proposal a “joke”, saying it would cause steeper price hikes and hamper efforts to tame decades-high inflation.

The French energy transition ministry criticised an “insufficient” scheme that “does not respond to the reality of the market”.



Russia-Ukraine war live: death toll rises after Russian strikes across Ukraine; European parliament ‘under cyber-attack’

FFS

Well over a decade on since common foreign and defence policy was treatyed into being and policy still seems to be DONT!.

 

[RD2003]

Russia’s finance ministry on Thursday proposed scrapping liquidity restrictions for spending on “anti-crisis” investments from its National Wealth Fund (NWF), citing the need to support key sectors amid challenging geopolitical conditions.

Reuters reports:

Russia’s fiscally conservative authorities have tended to be cautious in their use of NWF funds.
Thursday’s move suggests they want to be more creative in the way they maintain Russia’s economic health, as Moscow ramps up spending on what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
The ministry also said it would seek to reduce the threshold at which investments in other financial assets from the rainy day fund can be made to 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 10% currently, according to draft proposals.
“Introducing amendments to article 9611 of the budget code is aimed at making it possible to finance high-priority, self-sustaining infrastructure projects using the National Wealth Fund and to make anti-crisis investments regardless of the size of the (fund’s) liquid assets,” the ministry said in an explanatory note.
The ministry proposed that the total volume of such investments not exceed 4.25 trillion roubles ($61.24 billion).
“These changes will ensure reliable support for key sectors of the Russian economy in the current challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions,” the ministry said.
The NWF is Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, built up through years of profits on the country’s oil and gas exports.
As of Jan. 1, the fund stood at $148.4 billion, equivalent to 7.8% of GDP, having dropped by $38.1 billion in December, as the government took out cash to plug its budget deficit.
But only $87.2 billion, or 4.6% of GDP, was in liquid assets, and the ministry has warned that could fall to as low as 1.4% of GDP by 2024, which the Accounts Chamber has said would be the lowest ratio for 20 years.
As of Feb. 1 last year, three weeks before Russia sent troops into Ukraine, the total fund stood at $174.9 billion, or 10.2% of projected GDP. ($1 = 69.3955 roubles) (Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Sharon Singleton)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...085c034debb430#block-63d28add8f085c034debb430

 

[RD2003]

Interesting interview on the mood in Russia now, not just dealing with the effects of sanctions.

The BBC’s Steve Rosenberg: ‘The increasing aggression in Russia worries me – it could get bumpy’

The broadcaster’s Russia editor on Putin’s attitude to the BBC, the future of the war in Ukraine, and playing the piano with Mikhail Gorbachev

www.theguardian.com

'If you go to a supermarket in Moscow, the shelves are pretty full. The selection perhaps isn’t as large as it was a year ago, and a lot of western products that used to be there have disappeared, like Coca-Cola, replaced by new local brands. Imported goods are becoming much more expensive. But for the majority of Russians across the country, they don’t see a huge effect from sanctions. Now that may change this year. I think the economy is going to come under increasing pressure.'

 

[RD2003]

‘My family’s rhetoric has become violent’: Russians on one year of war

Four Russians reflect on how life has changed in their country since the invasion of Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

“There are no shortages in stores, the brands that have gone, such as Ikea, have been replaced by others – although it’ll take us some time to find out what the quality of these new brands is like. Events are held – although without European performers, which is a pity. People work, study.

“Prices have certainly increased, but people still have enough money for foreign holidays in India, Turkey, Thailand or the UAE.”
Julia*, 31, who works in education and lives in central Moscow, says her middle-class family are ardent supporters of Putin’s politics.
“One of my brothers has a ‘Z’ on his WhatsApp profile picture. I haven’t been in touch with him for a while.”


'Julia says language used in conversation has palpably changed over the past 12 months, which she feels is indicative of a cultural shift, reflecting that many Russians are on a war footing these days, or even celebrating Russia’s aggression.

“The rhetoric of my colleagues and family has become violent. For example, they quote things [the Russian foreign minister, Sergei] Lavrov says, containing mafia expressions and prison slang. Speaking like this is very uncharacteristic of these people.'

“They often use [expressions and words] such as ‘as a real man would do’, ‘masculine’, ‘duty’ and ‘truth’, and [openly] trash international regulations and so on. Such [discourse] is now widely accepted in society. I feel that the sanctions have strengthened support for Putin. It’s not comfortable to live here.”

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

sadlty predictable :'(

 

[gosub]

Terrifying video of Russian plane losing cabin pressure mid-flight shows how dangerous it's gotten to fly in Russia

Sanctions have meant Russia is not able to service many of its aircraft or get spare parts delivered, leading to a decline in airline safety.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[The39thStep]

Found this article, a holistic view of sanctions /response to sanctions/consequences of sanctions to be even handed and informative.

Testing Loyalties | Frankie Bond

A year later, the Russia sanctions and an emerging geopolitical order.

www.phenomenalworld.org

 

[kabbes]

Found this article, a holistic view of sanctions /response to sanctions/consequences of sanctions to be even handed and informative.

Testing Loyalties | Frankie Bond

A year later, the Russia sanctions and an emerging geopolitical order.

www.phenomenalworld.org

Yes, that’s a good article, including this important point:

Western sanctions against Russia are not intended to “succeed” in the conventional sense, which is to persuade a target to reverse course on a contentious policy issue. They are better seen as a vehicle for demarcating economic territory, reorientating the map of western capitalism away from a regional hegemon now viewed as irredeemably unreliable. This is also the logic behind the US sanctions on China’s advanced technology sector, for which Washington is currently requesting support in European capitals, seeking to embed “strategic competition” for the long term. Such measures inevitably incur escalating responses from their targets, such as so-called “blocking statutes,” legislation increasingly favored in both Russia and China that makes complying with foreign sanctions illegal, thereby forcing multinational companies to choose sides.

Sanctions thus serve an important purpose for powerful factions within both capital and government, particularly national security establishments that have long fought internal battlesagainst advocates of free trade and cosmopolitan economic integration. In this demarcation of the economic landscape, a highly volatile international order is emerging, characterized by slowly decoupling supply chains, weaponized interdependence, and perpetual low-grade financial conflict.

 

[RD2003]

'The dark fleet shows just some of the difficulties in maintaining an energy embargo.

“There are regulatory gaps, and holes and shortcomings that prevent it ever being enforced,” Bockmann said.

“If your tanker is registered in Panama, your single-ship shell company is a brass-plate address in Liberia, your ship manager is in a shopping mall in India, you’ve got lowly paid crew from the Philippines, call at Russia and discharge at China, and use a dodgy P&I [insurance] company that’s based in the Seychelles, where does that bring you to any form of international regulation, despite all the rules and conventions out there?” '

The ‘dark fleet’ of tankers shipping Russian oil in the shadows

As sanctions loomed, sales of ageing crude carriers suddenly soared, bought by operators unknown to the market

www.theguardian.com

 

[The39thStep]

Well, well well.

Postimees and EPL: Kaja Kallas, resign

Editorials published on the websites of three of Estonia's major dailies have called for Kaja Kallas to step down as prime minister of Estonia in the wake of revelations that a company her husband has a stake in has made a profit from shipping manufactured products to Russia, since the...

news.err.ee

 

[jeff_leigh]

Terrifying video of Russian plane losing cabin pressure mid-flight shows how dangerous it's gotten to fly in Russia

Sanctions have meant Russia is not able to service many of its aircraft or get spare parts delivered, leading to a decline in airline safety.

www.businessinsider.com

Business Insider isn’t known for its Impartiality

 

[gosub]

Business Insider isn’t known for its Impartiality

Sanctions Haven’t Stopped Russians From Having Their Fun in the Sun

Boeing aircraft are still plying tourist routes from Moscow to Turkey, Egypt, and Thailand, and they’re refueling—and possibly getting repairs—en route.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[RD2003]

Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, when it shrunk 3.5%, the state statistics service Rosstat estimated on Wednesday.

Russia’s economy is on course to recover this year from a 2.1% drop in GDP in 2022, as the west imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

In the first quarter of this year, GDP decreased 1.8% and grew 4.9% in the second, Reuters reports.

 

[kabbes]

GDP is a terrible measure of the success — even economic success — of a country. If you spend all your resources producing weapons that you then blow up, you’ve still maxed out that year’s GDP. Dig a hole then fill it in and you’ve performed measurable production. So I’m not surprised that as a country puts itself into a war footing, it initially experiences a GDP bump. But in the long run, these things aren’t going to help you even economically, let alone in terms of social contentment.

 

[RedRedRose]

Russia says it was "caught off guard" after country "loses" 76 planes

"We were unexpectedly caught off guard," Russia's transport minister said of Western sanctions on the aviation industry.

www.newsweek.com

So, Russia's aviation industry hasn't been doing too well.

 

[RD2003]

Sanctions are another thing that was supposed to have brought about Russia's collapse and the fall of the regime, according to many...



Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that Russia is working on the assumption that sanctions against it by the United States and its allies will last for many years, Reuters reported.

He said:

We have no doubt that these sanctions will last for many years. Even without statements from the respected (U.S.) representative, we already knew this. We assume this when formulating our line.

Peskov also added:

The world is much more diverse than the United States, so the American-centric world is ending, and a period of diversity is beginning, including in international economic relations.

 

[ska invita]

We assume this when formulating our line.

I remember on the eve of the invasions them saying "we lived through the cold war, we can live through the consequences of this"

 

[RD2003]

I remember on the eave of the invasions them saying "we lived through the cold war, we can live through the consequences of this"

'The West' seemed to think it was just like bullying the likes of Saddam again.

 

[The39thStep]

Are the Russians still relying on washing machines for parts due to the sanctions?

 

[RD2003]

Are the Russians still relying on washing machines for parts due to the sanctions?

They were supposed to be resorting to catapults and stones by now.

 

[The39thStep]

They were supposed to be resorting to catapults and stones by now.

Sharing a shovel between two drunks

 

[Humberto]

Amongst all the backslapping can I ask if we know if Russia would have earlier this year or now even agree to peace? And what would have happened to Ukraine and its people if they hadn't heroically resisted and achieved this current stalemate?

 

[phildwyer]

Amongst all the backslapping can I ask if we know if Russia would have earlier this year or now even agree to peace? And what would have happened to Ukraine and its people if they hadn't heroically resisted and achieved this current stalemate?

Putin will settle for the Russian-majority regions of Donbass and Crimea, plus a guarantee of neutrality. Doesn't seem like the end of the world.

 

[RD2003]

Meanwhile, from the Guardian.


EU countries are digging in against parts of the commission’s latest proposed sanctions on Russia, namely the so-called “no Russia clause”, retaliatory financial limits and enforcing sanctions on goods for personal use, six sources told Reuters. Some member states, which the sources declined to identify, say the new proposal goes too far and would backfire on EU global trade and ultimately fail in its aims.

 

[Humberto]

Putin will settle for the Russian-majority regions of Donbass and Crimea, plus a guarantee of neutrality. Doesn't seem like the end of the world.

And if Ukraine hadn't resisted?

 

[RD2003]

And if Ukraine hadn't resisted?

They might have had a Russian puppet government by now instead of a US puppet government.

The main error was in allowing themselves to be led by the noses into this disastrous confrontation by the west.

 

[phildwyer]

They might have had a Russian puppet government by now instead of a US puppet government.

The main error was in allowing themselves to be led by the noses into this disastrous confrontation by the west.

Yep. And the West never cared tuppence for the Ukraine. They were out to get Putin because he stood up to them in Syria.