Effects - current and potential of the worlds sanctions on Russia
- Thread starter Smangus
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gosub
~#
Russian-Ukraine conflict lurching globe toward food crisis: FAO expert - Thai PBS World
A wider conflict between Russia and Ukraine has cut off the supply chain of grain from Europe's breadbasket while driving up food prices, which could threaten
www.thaipbsworld.com
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
put the link in threadreader app
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Have you a view on the matter?
gosub
~#
Russia’s Inflation Rate Surpasses Annual Target in Two Weeks - The Moscow Times
Prices in Russia have risen faster over the last two weeks than the government hoped they would during the entire year, official statistics published Wednesday showed.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Reading a Meduza article on the economic impact, apparently although medicines aren't directly targeted 55% are imported and 85 to 90 percent of ingredients used in domestic manufacture are too. Also surprised to learn Russia's own refining sector is small and outdated and the tech needed to upgrade it apparently comes from Europe not China, so even fuel might not be the strongest prop.
meduza.io
Is Russia prepared for an economic crisis? Development expert Natalia Zubarevich on how sanctions will affect ordinary Russians — and what tools the government has to soften the blow — Meduza
There’s no doubt that the sanctions passed against Russia by the U.S., the EU, and others will have an enormous effect on Russia’s economy, while the exodus of international companies from the Russian market will have a significant impact on the country’s employment rate. To get a sense of how...
Flavour
hang the bankers
putting this here...
www.theguardian.com
"if Iran is anything to go by, it will not lead to a total collapse of the Russian economy. Since only the US, which consumes hardly any Russian oil, has so far imposed an embargo on Russian energy exports, Russia continues to earn hard currency. Having piled up its foreign exchange earnings, it has enough foreign exchange reserves to settle its entire foreign currency debt outright more than 12 times over. Russia’s problem is not financial but political. It cannot access its hundreds of billions in foreign exchange reserves because of European and American sanctions. For its part, it has barred foreign investors from selling their Russian investments. And when it makes the $117m payment in roubles, it is not obvious that its foreign creditors will be able to set up bank accounts in Russia into which to receive them."
my take = the Western banks/governments will use debt forgiveness as a carrot in order to try and convince Russia to end the war. Putin will laugh this off because Russia's debt is not that bad (compared to the US, or most any Euro country) and because he can continue earning FX through China/India/wherever else that isn't the US
What happens when a major economy can’t pay its debts in dollars? Russia is about to show us | Adam Tooze
The problem for Putin’s regime is political rather than financial – that’s why this would be no ordinary default, says historian Adam Tooze
"if Iran is anything to go by, it will not lead to a total collapse of the Russian economy. Since only the US, which consumes hardly any Russian oil, has so far imposed an embargo on Russian energy exports, Russia continues to earn hard currency. Having piled up its foreign exchange earnings, it has enough foreign exchange reserves to settle its entire foreign currency debt outright more than 12 times over. Russia’s problem is not financial but political. It cannot access its hundreds of billions in foreign exchange reserves because of European and American sanctions. For its part, it has barred foreign investors from selling their Russian investments. And when it makes the $117m payment in roubles, it is not obvious that its foreign creditors will be able to set up bank accounts in Russia into which to receive them."
my take = the Western banks/governments will use debt forgiveness as a carrot in order to try and convince Russia to end the war. Putin will laugh this off because Russia's debt is not that bad (compared to the US, or most any Euro country) and because he can continue earning FX through China/India/wherever else that isn't the US
JimW
支那暗杀团
This story has the Kremlin focus grouping in anticipation of dissatisfactions to come associated with sanctions: 'We've never been in this situation before' The Kremlin wants to know what Russian people are most concerned about. Their solution: focus groups. — Meduza
Thought the bit about the medicines impact affecting over 50s most and them being most socially active and preponderantly Putin's support base was interesting.
Thought the bit about the medicines impact affecting over 50s most and them being most socially active and preponderantly Putin's support base was interesting.
Yossarian
⏭️
Almost three months in, sanctions aren't working: the Russian economy seems to be in strong shape and the ruble is worth more than it was before the invasion.
Russia’s exports, meanwhile, have held up surprisingly well, including those directed to the West. Sanctions permit the sale of oil and gas to most of the world to continue uninterrupted. And a spike in energy prices has boosted revenues further.
As a result, analysts expect Russia’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months. The iif reckons that in 2022 the current-account surplus, which includes trade and some financial flows, could come in at $250bn (15% of last year’s gdp), more than double the $120bn recorded in 2021. That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen.
www.economist.com
Russia’s exports, meanwhile, have held up surprisingly well, including those directed to the West. Sanctions permit the sale of oil and gas to most of the world to continue uninterrupted. And a spike in energy prices has boosted revenues further.
As a result, analysts expect Russia’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months. The iif reckons that in 2022 the current-account surplus, which includes trade and some financial flows, could come in at $250bn (15% of last year’s gdp), more than double the $120bn recorded in 2021. That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen.
Russia is on track for a record trade surplus
Imports have collapsed, but exports are holding up
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Cessation of Arctic construction projects associated with the gas industry. The Murmansk project is massive.
thebarentsobserver.com
Biggest Arctic construction sites could turn into ghost towns
Thousands of jobs will vanish if projects like the Belokamenka Yard outside Murmansk come to halt.
thebarentsobserver.com
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Hmmm... Not sure this 'sanctions aren't working' stuff really holds up to much scrutiny.Almost three months in, sanctions aren't working: the Russian economy seems to be in strong shape and the ruble is worth more than it was before the invasion.
Russia’s exports, meanwhile, have held up surprisingly well, including those directed to the West. Sanctions permit the sale of oil and gas to most of the world to continue uninterrupted. And a spike in energy prices has boosted revenues further.
As a result, analysts expect Russia’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months. The iif reckons that in 2022 the current-account surplus, which includes trade and some financial flows, could come in at $250bn (15% of last year’s gdp), more than double the $120bn recorded in 2021. That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen.
Russia is on track for a record trade surplus
Imports have collapsed, but exports are holding up
See here:
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i wouldn't trust any economist (or for that matter mathematician) who can't deal with negative numbers. 2--1 is not 1 but 3.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Where are you getting those figures from?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it is but an example of something being down by -50%, as i thought you'd notice.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I think the equivalent of that was 20 years ago or so, the humiliation of the collapse of the soviet empire and not enough done to bring Russia willingly into the western sphere. Though as I’ve mentioned before it wasn‘t like dealing with a defeated enemy that needed rebuilding, much of the bosses remained the same.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Did you know many of the bosses in Germany after ww2 had been bosses during ww2?
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
it said:
Which is bollocks. Though building LNG terminals takes time.
Though also relevant:
which may explain the interest outside parties have in the country. Same old squabbling for resources.
gosub
~#
My thoughts exactly. WEF and Biden's son on the board of Ukraninan energy company (among other things)
ska invita
back on the other side
Say this is true... (Sanctions more harm than good)
www.theguardian.com
The thing is I can't imagine a political situation by which the sanctions will be lifted....
The EU should forget about sanctions – they’re doing more harm than good | Simon Jenkins
Far from compelling Russia to exit Ukraine, they are causing great suffering worldwide as food and energy prices soar, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott
The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe, says Larry Elliott, the Guardian’s economics editor
'It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.'
'There is (...) no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-to-be-part-of-new-round-of-russia-sanctions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-to-be-part-of-new-round-of-russia-sanctions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-to-be-part-of-new-round-of-russia-sanctions
'When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.'
'If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.
Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesn’t appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.
Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.
The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.'
not-bono-ever
meh
Theres still much of that there russian energy being brokered through switzerland. Marc Rich would be proud
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
A quick snap from Reuters: Russia may be getting more revenue from its fossil fuel sales now than before its invasion of Ukraine, according to one US official.
US energy security envoy, Amos Hochstein, told lawmakers during a hearing that increases in global oil prices have offset the impact of import bans.
US energy security envoy, Amos Hochstein, told lawmakers during a hearing that increases in global oil prices have offset the impact of import bans.
gosub
~#
The Week In Russia: 'The Complete Collapse Of Everything'
As the war in Ukraine rages, Russian President Vladimir Putin likens himself to Tsar Peter the Great -- but critics find a glaring flaw in the comparison. Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev provides the poisonous voice-over for a terrible, troubled time.
www.rferl.org
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