Effects - current and potential of the worlds sanctions on Russia

[IC3D]

Just googled petrol is 0.7 euros ltr in Russia, I suppose it should't be surprising really yet somehow is.

 

[RD2003]

Russia earned €93bn in revenue from fossil fuel exports in the first 100 days of the war, according to research by Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea).

With 61% of these exports, worth €56bn (£48bn), going to the member states of the European Union, the bloc of countries remains Russia’s largest export market.

After China, Germany remains its largest customer, with exports between 14 February and 3 June amounting to €12.1bn.

Other large importers of Russian fossil fuels are Italy (€7.8bn), the Netherlands (€7.8bn), Turkey (€6.7bn) and Poland (€4.4bn).

While the volume of exports fell by around 15% in May, the increase in fossil demand has also created a windfall for the country: Russia’s average export prices were on average 60% higher than last year.

 

[RD2003]

And Georgia is currently a western ally....

Russian people and companies are using entities in Georgia to bypass western sanctions, a group of Ukrainian lawmakers say.

Speaking in Washington, David Arakhamia, Ukraine’s chief negotiator with Russia, said the Ukrainian delegation was set to have meetings at the US Congress, State Department and the Treasury to raise awareness of the issue, among other topics.

Speaking to reporters at a German Marshall Fund event, he said:

They (Russians) use heavily right now ... Georgian banks, Georgian financial system, Georgian companies and so on.
If you are a sanctioned Russian person, you go to the Internet, you open up a Georgian company, open up remotely the bank account and start processing.”

He did not provide further details or specific examples.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Aercap leasing in Dublin ( as they all are ) have started a 3.5Bn USD insurance claim for their planes that have gone awol in Russia. Also. Aeroflot have been buying some their leases out with government issued roubles and reregistering as legit Russian ones now - seesm to be a purposeful loophole in the sanctions regime for this kind of outcome

 

[gosub]

Oil shippers are hiding Russian cargoes by paying in Chinese yuan, exchanging weapons for crude, and 'going dark'

Carriers can easily mask the origins of Russian oil shipped to sanctions-averse buyers, sparking concern the products are entering Europe, per the Guardian.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[RD2003]

Lithuania to allow sanctioned Russian goods to transit its territory​

Lithuania will allow sanctioned Russian goods to transit its territory on their way to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, its foreign ministry said on Wednesday, reversing its policy after new European Commission guidelines.

The new guidelines on Wednesday followed weeks of tension among Moscow, European Union member Lithuania and the European Union that tested Europe’s resolve to enforce sanctions on Russia.

Kaliningrad, which is bordered by EU states and relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods, has had some freight transport from mainland Russia cut off since 17 June under sanctions imposed by Brussels.

The sanctions were designed to bar entry into the EU of certain Russian products, such as vodka and steel.

Moscow earlier said restricting overland transit of goods from Russia to Kaliningrad amounted to an illegal blockade; Lithuania said it had no choice but to enforce rules imposed by Brussels.

This decision, which removes restrictions on a certain range of products transported by rail, is a demonstration of realism and common sense,” a Russian foreign ministry spokesperson said by email to Reuters on Wednesday. “Although we still have questions about the contents of this document.”

Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov wrote on Telegram the new guidelines are “only the first step needed” to solve the stand-off: “We will continue to work towards the complete removal of restrictions”.

 

[RD2003]

Russian war slowing growth and hiking inflation, European Commission warns

Body revises economic forecast and says outlook for EU and eurozone heavily dependent on course of war

www.theguardian.com

 

[RD2003]

Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist and argues that western sanctions against Russia are not working:

Western sanctions against Russia are the most ill-conceived and counterproductive policy in recent international history. Military aid to Ukraine is justified, but the economic war is ineffective against the regime in Moscow, and devastating for its unintended targets.

World energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring, supply chains are chaotic and millions are being starved of gas, grain and fertiliser. Yet Vladimir Putin’s barbarity only escalates – as does his hold over his own people. To criticise western sanctions is close to anathema. Defence analysts are dumb on the subject. Strategy thinktanks are silent.

Britain’s putative leaders, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, compete in belligerent rhetoric, promising ever tougher sanctions without a word of purpose. Yet, hint at scepticism on the subject and you will be excoriated as “pro-Putin” and anti-Ukraine. Sanctions are the war cry of the west’s crusade.

 

[strung out]

He's wrong. The clue was in that it's Simon Jenkins.

 

[RD2003]

He's wrong. The clue was in that it's Simon Jenkins

I don't think he's exactly making this up, although I suppose we can alway create our own alternative reality: 'World energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring, supply chains are chaotic and millions are being starved of gas, grain and fertiliser. Yet Vladimir Putin’s barbarity only escalates – as does his hold over his own people. To criticise western sanctions is close to anathema. Defence analysts are dumb on the subject. Strategy thinktanks are silent.'

 

[Dystopiary]

Good takedown of that Simon Jenkins article here, paragraph by paragraph, by someone who knows what they're on about:

Dmitry Grozoubinski on twitter

 

[kabbes]

I’d not seen this thread before. I can’t believe that people are seriously contending that sanctions are being ineffective, let alone counterproductive. The sanctions are having a disastrous effect on Russia’s economy. That effect is not necessarily seen in the first few months — although their inability to build and replace weaponry is pretty obvious — it’s something that builds to a point that the government starts to really struggle to deal with its population.

The evidence that the sanctions are effective are plentiful, including in this peer reviewed paper

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow

papers.ssrn.com

 

[RD2003]

Good takedown of that Simon Jenkins article here, paragraph by paragraph, by someone who knows what they're on about:

Dmitry Grozoubinski on twitter

Hardly a devastaing 'takedown', though, is it? It's mostly a series of counter-claims to those of Jenkins some of which aren't really verifiable. And the author has to lose points for talking about appeasement as if it's 1939.

And in the end it's still difficult to argue against the fact that six months on, despite new sanctions being regularly introduced, the Russian economy has not ground to halt, and probably won't, and Russian aggression continues with no sign of it stopping soon. Nor against the fact that their repercussions are increasingly going to be felt right across the world.

 

[RD2003]

I’d not seen this thread before. I can’t believe that people are seriously contending that sanctions are being ineffective, let alone counterproductive. The sanctions are having a disastrous effect on Russia’s economy. That effect is not necessarily seen in the first few months — although their inability to build and replace weaponry is pretty obvious — it’s something that builds to a point that the government starts to really struggle to deal with its population.

Again, though, this is mere theory. The outcome, as always, is likely to be a lot messier and to nobody's real satisfaction.

 

[existentialist]

I don't think he's exactly making this up, although I suppose we can alway create our own alternative reality: 'World energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring, supply chains are chaotic and millions are being starved of gas, grain and fertiliser. Yet Vladimir Putin’s barbarity only escalates – as does his hold over his own people. To criticise western sanctions is close to anathema. Defence analysts are dumb on the subject. Strategy thinktanks are silent.'

Ka-ching! What's that, another 800₽?

 

[RD2003]

Ka-ching! What's that, another 800₽?

If only.

 

[RD2003]

Here's another bit of Jenkins' article that it's difficult to argue against.

'A rare student of this subject is the American economic historian Nicholas Mulder, who points out that more than 30 sanctions “wars” in the past 50 years have had minimal if not counterproductive impact. They are meant to “intimidate peoples into restraining their princes”. If anything they have had the opposite effect. From Cuba to Korea, Myanmar to Iran, Venezuela to Russia, autocratic regimes have been entrenched, elites strengthened and freedoms crushed. Sanctions seem to instil stability and self-reliance on even their weakest victim. Almost all the world’s oldest dictatorships have benefited from western sanctions.'

 

[kabbes]

Again, though, this is mere theory. The outcome, as always, is likely to be a lot messier and to nobody's real satisfaction.

It’s not mere theory. The 130 page report I linked to has really extensive data analysis in it. You didn’t even look at it, did you?

 

[RD2003]

It’s not mere theory. The 130 page report I linked to has really extensive data analysis in it. You didn’t even look at it, did you?

130 pages? Not just after Sunday lunch. Maybe later.

However, it was the bit from you that I put in bold which I meant was mere theory. If that's fleshed out in the report, it is still theory. As I said, as always the outcome is unlikely to correspond with the aim.

 

[yield]

The US-Led Drive to Isolate Russia and China Is Falling Short
Bloomberg 05/08/2022

While the US and its allies have sanctioned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, half of the countries in the Group of Twenty have not signed up.

 

[tim]

Macdonalds is now a Tasty Period in the Russian far-East, but unlike other shopping centre luxuries it's still on the consumer menu.

 

[RD2003]

Russian oil production falls less than 3% as sanctions have ‘limited’ effect

In July production was only 310,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, IEA finds

www.theguardian.com

 

[kabbes]

Russian oil production falls less than 3% as sanctions have ‘limited’ effect

In July production was only 310,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, IEA finds

www.theguardian.com

Meanwhile, exports have dropped by more than that (0.5m), which is 5%, and the price they can achieve is below market rate. And this is before actual EU oil sanctions;

However, the IEA said the EU embargo on Russian crude and product imports, which comes into full effect in February 2023, would result in “further declines” as about 1m barrels a day of products and 1.3m barrels a day of crude “would have to find new homes”.

So that adds up to a significant hit. And that’s oil, which is easy to find new homes for. Gas relies on pipes for the main, and is thus way harder to reallocate to new buyers.

All adds up to a lot.

 

[RD2003]

Meanwhile, exports have dropped by more than that (0.5m), which is 5%, and the price they can achieve is below market rate. And this is before actual EU oil sanctions;



So that adds up to a significant hit. And that’s oil, which is easy to find new homes for. Gas relies on pipes for the main, and is thus way harder to reallocate to new buyers.

All adds up to a lot.

I didn't write the article. It was just an info piece in line with the subject of the thread.

 

[kabbes]

I didn't write the article. It was just an info piece in line with the subject of the thread.

You cherry picked the headline and ignored the other information in the same article that suggests sanctions are actually having an impact.

 

[RD2003]

You cherry picked the headline and ignored the other information in the same article that suggests sanctions are actually having an impact.

I posted a link which took you to the article, with all its nuances. People can choose to read the article or not.

Just regard me as a facilitator of opportunity.

 

[kabbes]

I posted a link which took you to the article, with all its nuances. People can choose to read the article or not.

Just regard me as a facilitator of opportunity.

In that case, I guess you are now happy to agree that the article indicates that sanctions are indeed beginning to have a noticeable effect?

 

[RD2003]

In that case, I guess you are now happy to agree that the article indicates that sanctions are indeed beginning to have a noticeable effect?

It does claim that, at the same time as highlighting that, so far, not as much as those imposing the sanctions would have wished. Which anybody who clicked the link would have noticed.

You need to lower your (ahem) 'treason' alert settings.

 

[kabbes]

It does claim that, at the same time as highlighting that, so far, not as much as those imposing the sanctions would have wished. Which anybody who clicked the link would have noticed.

You need to lower your (ahem) 'treason' alert settings.

I’m not clear about what you are claiming for this and all the other information, including the detailed academic paper I posted earlier. Are you now agreeing that the sanctions are, indeed, having an impact?

 

[RD2003]

I’m not clear about what you are claiming for this and all the other information, including the detailed academic paper I posted earlier. Are you now agreeing that the sanctions are, indeed, having an impact?

Having no (perhaps unlike you) special access to the means of accurately assessing the effects of the sanctions, I can only see the often contradictory claims that everybody else sees.