How likely is war with Russia?

[RD2003]

These multi ethnic dictatorships did not have to end in the messy way they did. The trouble was that the ideological underpinnings of those states were morally bankrupt, any idealism was long dead. Nobody believed in them anymore. All that was left were strong arm boot boys, all corrupt, all with no ideas. China took the option of controlled violent repression of its minorities. They've got away with it partly because the Chineses overwhelmingly outnumbered its minorities. That was not true in the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia.

Correct. In my experience it was all corruption, with the strong arm boot boys not enforcing the old ideology with any enthusiasm, but looking for an 'in' with the corruption.
What could have headed off what is, inevitably in the light of what did take place, happening now, is a 'do it anyway to prevent the inevitable chaos' attitude on the part of those who still held power.

Radicals of all stripes would have had no less chance of an audience had things gone differently in the 1989-91 watershed than in what subsequently happened, not to mention in the developing (bogus) liberalism versus autocracy narrative, which will focus well-meaning but simple minds on supporting a fake liberalism that will in no way challenge our own rulers.

 

[ska invita]

ugly as it would have been, it could have been put down eventually if the Soviet state hadn't been destroyed. It isn't my politics, but...

yes human subjugation knows no bounds. if its not your politics why bring it up? the break up of the russian empire is a historical inevitability, as is the fate of all empires. why take time to imagine what other desperate ways it might have clung on?

 

[RD2003]

yes human subjugation knows no bounds. if its not your politics why bring it up? the break up of the russian empire is a historical inevitability, as is the fate of all empires. why take time to imagine what other desperate ways it might have clung on?

It might be an historical inevitability, but at that stage in the game, it wasn't even necessary. And if the USSR had managed to save itself and clamp down on nationalism, it's quite possible that, a mere 30 years later, we wouldn't be seeing this fiasco iunfolding before our eyes.

 

[ska invita]

It might be an historical inevitability, but at that stage in the game, it wasn't even necessary.

necessary to who?
what about self-determination?
i dont follow what you are saying

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

It might be an historical inevitability, but at that stage in the game, it wasn't even necessary. And if the USSR had managed to save itself and clamp down on nationalism, it's quite possible that, a mere 30 years later, we wouldn't be seeing this fiasco iunfolding before our eyes.

Quite possibly it might have happened earlier, or later, or been worse, or not as bad.

 

[RD2003]

necessary to who?
what about self-determination?
i dont follow what you are saying

Necessary for the Soviet state.
Self-determination is a nice thing, but in this case it's contributed greatly to what we're seeing now. It could all have been addressed better than it was.

 

[Nylock]

War with Russia is still not likely but a closer possibility than I can remember in my 47 years on this planet. Then again, anything could potentially trigger an armed conflict.

What if the Russian incursions into Swedish airspace continue? What if they start making threateneing moves on the Finnish border? Neither country is a member of NATO but do have close ties to the organisation. What if the Russian armed forces engage in provocative 'exercises' on the Finnish border that prompt the Finns to request NATO assistance to bolster their border and Sweden then says "fuck it" and submits a formal application to join? Whilst Ukraine is a horrible situation for all concerned, the Russians have a rationale that they can spin both at home and abroad for their actions there. It will get really dangerous if they start looking to Sweden/Finland* once they've finished pummelling the Ukranians.

There's lots of unlikely (though not impossible) ways that it can go very bad, very quickly...



*or the NATO member states on the Baltic that they also think they have some sort of historic claim to...

 

[bimble]

Necessary for the Soviet state.
Self-determination is a nice thing, but in this case it's contributed greatly to what we're seeing now. It could all have been addressed better than it was.

Oh right. As a citizen of Slovakia I’m not sure my compatriots would find your point of view very interesting tbh.

 

[RD2003]

Oh right. As a citizen of Slovakia I’m not sure my compatriots would find your point of view very interesting tbh.

Have I mentioned Slovakia?

 

[bimble]

Have I mentioned Slovakia?

I don’t know what you’re droning on about the soviet state needn’t have collapsed and let the republics go for, it’s daft.

 

[dilute micro]

the Russians have a rationale that they can spin both at home and abroad for their actions there.

Agree with all of your post but it seems as if they want to keep the Russian public in the dark at this point. Just at a glance it looks to me as if the information age is something the old fogies in leadership don't know how to deal with and somehow think they can keep the full extent of the war a secret. In the early days of the Donbass I was surprised to learn that the Russian military had such a hard time controlling their soldiers' use of social media. I just assumed they could and would put a vice grip on it but I guess not.

 

[RD2003]

I don’t know what you’re droning on about the soviet state needn’t have collapsed and let the republics go for, it’s daft.

Slovakia wasn't a Soviet republic. Being 'a Slovakian citizen,' I thought you might have noticed.

 

[LDC]

In the early days of the Donbass I was surprised to learn that the Russian military had such a hard time controlling their soldiers' use of social media. I just assumed they could and would put a vice grip on it but I guess not.

Short of confiscating personal phones and imposing harsh punishments on anyone caught with one, it's pretty much impossible to do that nowadays. And even then they'd just nick or buy a local one at the first chance they got and use local wifi or network access which people mange to rig up in all sorts of crazy ways you'd think would be impossible. Not to mention that everyone, including the NCOs and officers, wants to use their phone and be in touch with home (or post TikToks or whatever...) so it's hard to do more than short periods of enforcement just before an operation to enforce discipline with this.

Often the first thing you see after the fighting stops (or sometimes even before) is someone on a roof fiddling with an aerial or something to get internet and phones working.

 

[bimble]

Slovakia wasn't a Soviet republic. Being 'a Slovakian citizen,' I thought you might have noticed.

Can’t be arsed. This is quite close to home for me, with my family history.

 

[RD2003]

Can’t be arsed. This is quite close to home for me, with my family history.

Yes, I heard quite a lot of it was about you.

 

[bimble]

Yes, I heard quite a lot of it was about you.

You are saying it would have been better if the soviet state hadn’t collapsed. It’s a waste of time continuing this.

 

[Nylock]

Agree with all of your post but it seems as if they want to keep the Russian public in the dark at this point. Just at a glance it looks to me as if the information age is something the old fogies in leadership don't know how to deal with and somehow think they can keep the full extent of the war a secret. In the early days of the Donbass I was surprised to learn that the Russian military had such a hard time controlling their soldiers' use of social media. I just assumed they could and would put a vice grip on it but I guess not.

Yep, keeping them in the dark about what they are actually doing over there is the only way they can retain any semblance of domestic "legitimacy" about the whole operation (you only need to see their online virtual lesson about the 'necessity' of the 'special military action' that's being broadcast to Russian primary schools today to see that the domestic bullshit factory is in full production mode).

If the Russian population at large were made fully aware that (a) the war that's being prosecuted is one of invasion and conquest as opposed to a 'defensive action' and (b) the policy shift to 'Groznyfying' whole suburbs of Ukranian cities in order to try and force a speedy surrender, then things would kick-off properly in the domestic scene. That's something the regime is keen to avoid at any cost. If the Russian people knew exactly what was going on, the whole place would implode (especially as the subsequent attempts at brutal suppression of the inevitable mass demonstrations would only feed the fire).

 

[RD2003]

You are saying it would have been better if the soviet state hadn’t collapsed. It’s a waste of time continuing this.

I did. But I didn't mention Slovakia as it wasn't part of the Soviet state.

By 1991, when the SU was wound up, the countries of the Warsaw Pact had already gone their own way.

 

[bimble]

I did. But I didn't mention Slovakia as it wasn't part of the Soviet state.

By 1991, when the SU was wound up, the countries of the Warsaw Pact had already gone their own way.

Ok.

 

[existentialist]

Yes, I heard quite a lot of it was about you.

I think that kind of snark is uncalled-for. You went to the Putin School of Personal Charm and Tact, right?

 

[Pickman's model]

Slovakia wasn't a Soviet republic. Being 'a Slovakian citizen,' I thought you might have noticed.

altho near the birth of the soviet state there was a czechoslovak legion in siberia. not sure the slovaks played any other part in the ussr mind

 

[bimble]

altho near the birth of the soviet state there was a czechoslovak legion in siberia. not sure the slovaks played any other part in the ussr mind

Eh?

 

[Pickman's model]

Eh?

eloquent as ever

haven't you heard of the czechoslovak legion in siberia during the russian civil war?

 

[andysays]

Yes, I heard quite a lot of it was about you.

You've been behaving like a dick on this thread for a while, but you've now gone beyond that and are behaving like a cunt.

Time to give your ego a rest.

 

[RD2003]

You've been behaving like a dick on this thread for a while, but you've now gone beyond that and behaving like a cunt.

Time to give your ego a rest.

I've offered a viewpoint without insisting anybody agree.

If it's time for me to give my ego a rest, it's also time for everybody else doing the same to do so.

 

[andysays]

I've offered a viewpoint without insisting anybody agree.

If it's time for me to give my ego a rest, it's also time for everybody else doing the same to do so.

I'm not talking about your viewpoint, I'm talking about your unnecessary and egotistical attacks on other posters.

 

[bimble]

I’m more bothered by his viewpoint tbh.

 

[RD2003]

I'm not talking about your viewpoint, I'm talking about your unnecessary and egotistical attacks on other posters.

And these 'attacks' have only gone one way?

 

[existentialist]

And these 'attacks' have only gone one way?

Nobody has attacked you in the way you seem apparently entitled to do to anyone who dares to disagree with you.

ETA: and that's when you don't just resort to playground insults.

 

[Pickman's model]

And these 'attacks' have only gone one way?

i'm amazed you've lasted five years here