I've done a bit of buying and selling of btc over the last few weeks. Mainly just to get to know the market and what it's all about.
It's interesting, and there are lots of little things going on. A lot of demand in the UK but supply difficulty is proving a steady supply of punters who are willing to pay well over Gox spot price.
Is it a bubble? The future? A pyramid/ponzi scheme? Tulip mania? A genuine new currency? Overpriced? Underpriced?
My conclusion - a mix of all these things. Bitcoin will be defined by the two phases, before the bubble, and after. And we are in the bubble right now. IMO, right at the start.
This is how bubbles play out:
And I believe we are just under the media attention point. The internet hasn't had a global lottery/pyramid/ponzi phenomena and btc is ripe to be it. Partly because as a system it's pretty good. It could have long term potential for all kinds of things - but that's the long term. In the short term it would only take one country to get a rush on it to trigger a wider mania.
One of the features of the market is that every week or two, big holders dump coins onto the market. Not too large, but certainly large enough to affect the price. The pattern has been repeated at least 3 times. A big sell (perhaps equivalent to 5 times the total orders for that day, that sucks up the available buy orders, then 5 minutes later another big sell which pulls the price down 20%. It's as if they are deliberately creating mini "bear traps" to shake out the doubters, while keeping a lid on the price. It's unregulated, so there are cowboys at work pulling trading tricks that they would not get away with on the FTSE, NASDAQ, etc.
I have a little stash of coins, nothing more than I can afford to lose, and am going to ride the boom and try and sell before the top. I have a basic reputation on a few trading locations and a gox account, so I should be able to divest quickly. Who knows. It's a gamble really.