Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[AnnO'Neemus]

This is so weird. Our defence secretary was on the phone to a fake Zelensky today. Don’t they have secret passwords or secretaries or anything.

Borat (Sasha Baron-Cohen) making new movie film for show how stupid and greedy politicians is.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Is it only the Russian working class that will be hit then? Will dentists, doctors, lawyers, small business owners, and all the the other non-working class folk, be unaffected and think Putin's ace?

No but how do the numbers compare? Which do you reckon there are more of?

Actually why the fuck am I bothering?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Spurce?

spruce?



(sorry )

 

[ohmyliver]

The fucking moron. I bet he spilled loads of state secrets and battle plans before he twigged.

at least they didn't get through to Doris, Rabb, or Truss...

 

[Raheem]

Spurce?

 

[SpineyNorman]

See, in the medium to long term I wouldn't fall off my chair is those actors did become important players in Russia's political bearpit, but now, or next week, or in 3 months, possibly even 6 months? Nah.

There's also the danger that in highlighting/celebrating Russian internal opposition we give the Putin regime ammunition to portray it as being a western front, enemies within, traitors and all the other good stuff that justifies them being sent off to count trees in Siberia.

I also take the view that a hard military and economic defeat is a prerequisite for serious internal opposition - which requires enduring, large scale military and logistic support to the Ukrainian state (and possibly groups if the state apparatus is destroyed?) - though, of course, I understand that a more peaceable Russia isn't there only potential outcome of such a defeat...

I agree. I think the tensions I alluded to can only really be heightened to the point where they can seriously affect things if the military situation deteriorates further from the Russian point of view.

The thing I object to is the suggestion that any attempt at bringing class into the analysis is somehow juvenile student politics. Especially coming from posters who, to put it bluntly, don't know wtf they're on about.

 

[Dogsauce]

is there an organised Russian working class who are likely to take up the fight against their masters? Id love to see mass mutinies and a general strike that brought putin's war machine to a halt - but that is far more likely to happen through ordinary ukrainians fighting like fuck (And the former probably couldn't happen without the latter). And my understanding is that much of the Russian anti war movement is concentrated amongst younger, well educated Russians in the cities who probably dont see themselves as part of an international working class.

I think Belarus may be a more likely place for an organised uprising - it’s been attempted in very recent times and there is some resistance to playing Putin’s game already - troops refusing to mobilise, Russian supply trains being disrupted. They haven’t had the social media crackdown yet as in Russia proper, platforms like TikTok still widely used and anti-war stuff circulating there. If I were looking to influence/support opposition groups then this would be a better shot than Russia. It’s also where ballistic missiles are being launched at Kyiv, so valuable if it can be taken out of play (though Russian troops are unlikely to go home without a fight). It’d piss Putin off if the invasion of Ukraine ended with losing a puppet state rather than gaining one.

I don’t know if there is strong kinship between Ukraine and Belarus, or if stronger links are with Russia. Wikipedia tells me that Russian is the mother tongue for 70% of the population, and most trade is with Russia, so I guess historically it’s been the latter. Maybe steeplejack can elaborate on this a bit?

 

[SpineyNorman]

is there an organised Russian working class who are likely to take up the fight against their masters? Id love to see mass mutinies and a general strike that brought putin's war machine to a halt - but that is far more likely to happen through ordinary ukrainians fighting like fuck (And the former probably couldn't happen without the latter). And my understanding is that much of the Russian anti war movement is concentrated amongst younger, well educated Russians in the cities who probably dont see themselves as part of an international working class.

Why do they have to be organised (at least formally)? Why does it need to be a general strike? Class struggle isn't the glorious proletariat overthrowing the capitalist pigdogs or nothing.

When the material depravation really starts to hit who will be hit worst? What impact do you think that will have?

I don't know what the bit about ordinary Ukrainians fighting comes from - I fully support that (not that my support means much) and believe Ukrainian resistance is vital to intensifying tensions within Russia.

 

[Spymaster]

Which do you reckon there are more of?

It's not a question of who there are more of, but of how many of them will be convinced by the politics of "class war" outfits who've achieved precisely fuck-all politically for over a generation.

 

[SpineyNorman]

It's not a question of who there are more of, but of how many of them will be convinced by the politics of "class war" outfits who've achieved precisely fuck-all politically for over a generation.

Wtf have 'class war outfits' got to do with anything? Class struggle had been going on for centuries before they existed and no doubt will continue when they're long gone.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm just interested in your reasoning and how you arrive at the conclusions. Don't get so touchy! Take it as a compliment.

My reasoning is the same as that of both NATO & EU, which is just common sense, why would it be any different?

 

[SpineyNorman]

My reasoning is the same as that of both NATO & EU, which is just common sense, why would it be any different?

Lol

 

[Kaka Tim]

Why do they have to be organised (at least formally)? Why does it need to be a general strike? Class struggle isn't the glorious proletariat overthrowing the capitalist pigdogs or nothing.

When the material depravation really starts to hit who will be hit worst? What impact do you think that will have?

I don't know what the bit about ordinary Ukrainians fighting comes from - I fully support that (not that my support means much) and believe Ukrainian resistance is vital to intensifying tensions within Russia.

cos without organisation its going to easily supressed and unlikely to able to sustain itself? Cos a strong and organised working class movement would have the power to actually effect change?

 

[SpineyNorman]

cos without organisation its going to easily supressed and unlikely to able to sustain itself? Cos a strong and organised working class movement would have the power to actually effect change?

Yes, the better organised the more effective. This is hardly an astounding observation is it? Does that mean less well organised struggle won't have an effect?

Mason wrote a lot about working class resistance under the Nazis - hardly any organisation whatsoever once the regime really took hold. Yet it shaped the chronology and ultimately in a large part the outcome of the war. Or was mason just doing student politics too?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Most certainly not, but it gives a bit of a lie to your to your insistence that the best way to support them is through means other than the provision of military hardware.

To the average Ukrainian, currently starving and being shelled to buggery, your support in the form of attempting to mobilise the Russian working class to rise-up against Putin instead of giving them NLAWS, is probably about as welcome as a turd in a swimming pool.

How does it give 'a bit of a lie' if you acknowledge your previous claim may not be true?

And how do you know what they would welcome?

 

[SpackleFrog]

My reasoning is the same as that of both NATO & EU, which is just common sense, why would it be any different?

I assumed you might have some different opinions to the EU and NATO, do you not?

 

[Gramsci]

Never knew this . Only a short series of tweets worth a read .

More on this in this Open Democracy article. A lot of talk from politicians in the West about defending democracy and European values against Russian authoritarianism. Yet Western institutions have forced neo liberal "reforms" onto Ukraine.

As much as I'm against Putin I do think a more balanced view of West Vs Putin should look at how West has "helped" Ukraine.

Why Ukraine needs foreign debt cancellation now

As the country fights a bloody war with Russia, international financial institutions must show solidarity by wiping Ukraine’s crippling debts

www.opendemocracy.net

Indeed, there have been consistent concerns from international and local NGOs that IMF-instituted economic reforms attached to loans have severely affected living standards and social services, with a particularly detrimental impact on women and marginalised groups.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I assumed you might have some different opinions to the EU and NATO, do you not?

Not when it comes down to what is likely to result in an escalation that could result in a nuclear war, no.

Do you want a nuclear war?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Yes, the better organised the more effective. This is hardly an astounding observation is it? Does that mean less well organised struggle won't have an effect?

Mason wrote a lot about working class resistance under the Nazis - hardly any organisation whatsoever once the regime really took hold. Yet it shaped the chronology and ultimately in a large part the outcome of the war. Or was mason just doing student politics too?

you're the one who said "why do they have be organised?" so I answered your question.
And - correct me if im wrong - whilst there were some very brave Germans who stood up the regime - my understanding was that the war's outcome was overwhelming shaped by Germany having to take on the combined military and economic might of the US, USSR and the British empire.

 

[elbows]

Probably getting ahead of the inevitable leak.

I certainly take note of the way its being spun in this BBC article:

A Ministry of Defence source said it was a "fairly sophisticated" video call that was not made to Mr Wallace's own mobile phone.

The source said the call came to him via "another government department" - something the source said added to its credibility.

During the call Mr Wallace was asked about Nato and the state of the negotiations taking place between Ukraine and Russia, the source added.

The source said he "was asked leading questions to encourage inappropriate comments" but he "didn't say anything that was not factual or appropriate".

In his post revealing the call on Twitter, Mr Wallace wrote: "No amount of Russian disinformation, distortion and dirty tricks can distract from Russia's human rights abuses and illegal invasion of Ukraine. A desperate attempt."

The BBC has been told that the call to Mr Wallace involved an actor in front of a Ukrainian flag, who asked a range "of wild questions".

Defence sources say they are concerned that there may be an attempt to distort or edit Mr Wallace's answers before he terminated the call.

Ukraine war: Ben Wallace and Priti Patel targeted by hoax calls

The defence and home secretaries blame Russia after receiving calls from imposters this week.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[SpineyNorman]

you're the one who said "why do they have be organised?" so I answered your question.
And - correct me if im wrong - whilst there were some very brave Germans who stood up the regime - my understanding was that the war's outcome was overwhelming shaped by Germany having to take on the combined military and economic might of the US, USSR and the British empire.

Why did Hitler go to war when he did? Why did he open the eastern front when he did? What impact did that have on the outcome of the war? I strongly recommend you read mason. It's arguably the biggest debate in the historiography of the second world war. This isn't really the place for it.

I did say why do they have to be organised because the implication in your post was that they would otherwise have no effect. This is demonstrably false. In fact in certain circumstances formal organisation is a weakness. It certainly was in nazi Germany.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Spurce?

Deciduous

 

[bimble]

I certainly take note of the way its being spun in this BBC article:

Ukraine war: Ben Wallace and Priti Patel targeted by hoax calls

The defence and home secretaries blame Russia after receiving calls from imposters this week.

www.bbc.co.uk

It was a video call ?? Ducking hell. That is really embarrassing.

 

[Raheem]

Wonder what the stoopid thing he knows he said is, and what other stoopid things he said.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Not when it comes down to what is likely to result in an escalation that could result in a nuclear war, no.

Do you want a nuclear war?

When did you stop beating your wife?

 

[friedaweed]

modern warfare institute podcast about the battle for kyiv at What Will the Battle of Kyiv Look Like? - Modern War Institute

Cheers. Bedtime anti worried-man ear candy. I do like a good podcast to forget about my work woes. Great that it's on Spotify too

 

[friedaweed]

Missed that sorry, must have been in the middle of the argy bargy back and forth that I skim past.

I was listening to David Shrigley's "Worried Noodles"the other day and it made me think of you

Various - David Shrigley's Worried Noodles

View credits, reviews, tracks and shop for the 2007 CD release of "David Shrigley's Worried Noodles" on Discogs.

www.discogs.com

 

[Cid]

On the podcast front Sinica have now put out a couple of episodes on Chinese perspective on Ukraine... Centrist liberal caveat attached, but relevant and interesting perspectives. I'd give a summary, but really need a relisten first. The most recent one with Maria Repnikova sounded interesting, but I appear not to have taken it on board at all.

 

[steveseagull]

Article about Kadyrov. Unhinged stuff.

Diary of a warlord: Inside the mind of ‘Putin’s attack dog’

Nobody involved in the war in Ukraine is more fearsome than Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov — at least when it comes to social media.

www.politico.eu

 

[friedaweed]

On the podcast front Sinica have now put out a couple of episodes on Chinese perspective on Ukraine... Centrist liberal caveat attached, but relevant and interesting perspectives. I'd give a summary, but really need a relisten first. The most recent one with Maria Repnikova sounded interesting, but I appear not to have taken it on board at all.

Can you up a link mate?