Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Cid]

Can you up a link mate?

I never really know how to link podcasts, as I just do it through apps...

Feigenbaum I found grated a little in that interview, but still think it's worth a listen.

China's soft power collides with the hard realities of the Russo-Ukrainian War: A conversation with Maria Repnikova – The China Project

China's soft power collides with the hard realities of the Russo-Ukrainian War: A conversation with Maria Repnikova

supchina.com

China’s Ukraine conundrum, with Evan Feigenbaum – The China Project

China’s Ukraine conundrum, with Evan Feigenbaum

supchina.com

 

[strung out]

Article about Kadyrov. Unhinged stuff.

Diary of a warlord: Inside the mind of ‘Putin’s attack dog’

Nobody involved in the war in Ukraine is more fearsome than Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov — at least when it comes to social media.

www.politico.eu

So unhinged that he pretended to be just outside Kyiv when he was actually back home in Grozny.

 

[friedaweed]

I never really know how to link podcasts, as I just do it through apps...

Feigenbaum I found grated a little in that interview, but still think it's worth a listen.

China's soft power collides with the hard realities of the Russo-Ukrainian War: A conversation with Maria Repnikova – The China Project

China's soft power collides with the hard realities of the Russo-Ukrainian War: A conversation with Maria Repnikova

supchina.com

China’s Ukraine conundrum, with Evan Feigenbaum – The China Project

China’s Ukraine conundrum, with Evan Feigenbaum

supchina.com

Nice one Cid. much appreciated

 

[not-bono-ever]

This is interesting from a former Soviet state, coming hot on the heels of Kazakhstan deciding to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Iirc it was the Uzbeks that scuppered the new improved Soviet Union plan in 90/91 by jumping ship early and telling Moscow to GTF

 

[steveseagull]

Man down. Whilst trying to build a bridge. Careless.

 

[smokedout]

at least they didn't get through to Doris, Rabb, or Truss...

I wouldn't be so sure. Hearing reports Raab has locked himself in his office with a bottle of whiskey and has been sat with his head in his hands just saying "fuck" over and over again for nearly five hours now. Meanwhile Truss is on her way to Donetsk for a top secret rendezvous.

 

[elbows]

Its a bit late and Im tired so I might have forgotten something really obvious, but right now I'm a little bit confused by this bit in a John Simpson piece:

Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call

Russia's president revealed his peace conditions in a phone call - the BBC spoke to someone who listened in.

www.bbc.co.uk

Still, President Putin's demands are not as harsh as some people feared and they scarcely seem to be worth all the violence, bloodshed and destruction which Russia has visited on Ukraine.

My confusion is, whats actually missing from Russias demands mentioned in the piece that we would have expected to be included?

 

[DownwardDog]

Man down. Whilst trying to build a bridge. Careless.

Captain Mainwaring defected.

 

[spring-peeper]

Wishful thinking, truth or propaganda?

Saw it here - Russia bogged down on all fronts as war on Ukraine enters fourth week

Russian forces in Ukraine are blasting cities and killing civilians but no longer making progress, Western countries said on Thursday, as a war Moscow was thought to have hoped to win within days entered its fourth week.


Heavily outnumbered Ukrainian forces have prevented Moscow from capturing any of Ukraine’s biggest cities so far despite the largest assault on a European state since World War Two. The invasion has largely stalled on all fronts, with Russian forces suffering heavy losses and making minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days, British military intelligence said on Thursday.

“Ukrainian resistance remains staunch and well-coordinated,” the Ministry of Defence said. “The vast majority of Ukrainian territory, including all major cities, remains in Ukrainian hands.”

 

[steveseagull]

I bring you news of another Colonel making an early exit

 

[_Russ_]

With reports this morning of hits near Lviv airport, it’s hard for me to accept that the intelligence report above is a wholly true assessment

 

[brogdale]

With reports this morning of hits near Lviv airport, it’s hard for me to accept that the intelligence report above is a wholly true assessment

Yeah, those brave cruise missiles are battling forward and making progress

 

[bimble]

The amount of generals and top ranking types being taken out, the Ukrainian army must be getting really good intelligence. Is it spies or what ?

 

[existentialist]

With reports this morning of hits near Lviv airport, it’s hard for me to accept that the intelligence report above is a wholly true assessment

There is a lot of close-in fighting in the south, which - perhaps because there's a lot of close-in fighting - we don't get nearly so much reporting from. And then there are the bombings and missile attacks on the cities. They're two separate things, but both are clearly happening.

 

[existentialist]

The amount of generals and top ranking types being taken out, the Ukrainian army must be getting really good intelligence. Is it spies or what ?

Well, we know that one thing is their crappy comms, which can be intercepted to find out who's talking, and direction finding used to locate the source.

 

[steveseagull]

This one has not taken an early bath but he has been nicked by the FSB so could likely have an accident with a window in the near future

 

[bimble]

Well, we know that one thing is their crappy comms, which can be intercepted to find out who's talking, and direction finding used to locate the source.

Maybe they’re getting video calls from putin impersonators asking where they are and what they’re planning to do next.

 

[steveseagull]

9 Generals arrested
4 Generals killed
6 Colonels killed

 

[bimble]

This one has not taken an early bath but he has been nicked by the FSB so could likely have an accident with a window in the near future

Yep this is the stuff that does make it very likely that the boss is indeed well aware that things are not going brilliantly.

 

[RedRedRose]

Never knew this . Only a short series of tweets worth a read .

Similar point made by Jacobin magazine To Help Ukraine, Cancel Its Foreign Debt

 

[Supine]

This guys threads are really interesting. This one is on Russian age demographics and their army.

 

[_Russ_]

Aljazeera reporting the cruise missiles hitting Lviv this morning were likely launched from aircraft over the black sea.
Is this as dodgy as it sounds to me?, I dont know what the ROEs are for NATO or participating countries if they detect such launches over what im assuming are international waters.
Havnt looked where the various FIRs are in the area but the airspace over the black sea does at least have controlled airways through that are under control of various adjoining countries, ill have to look at some charts

ETA a quick look and it seems possible to make such a flight within the odesa and simferapol FIRs so not really a problem for Russia

 

[bimble]

Does doing a massive purge of your highest security & military people make the ones not yet defenestrated more loyal or less so idk. If it’s just an attempt to shift the blame for failures to ‘fifth columnists’ it still has unpredictable consequences.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This one has not taken an early bath but he has been nicked by the FSB so could likely have an accident with a window in the near future

Gen Gavrilov was reportedly arrested either because of "leaks of military info that led to loss of life" or the "wasteful squandering of fuel", according to Christo Grozev, the chief Russia investigator at the Bellingcat open-source intelligence reporting project.

"One thing is clear: it's doubtless that Putin recognises the deep s--- this operation is in," he wrote on Twitter. "It's so bad that he changes horses in mid stream – a big no-no during war."

Gen Gavrilov had previously worked as a commander in the FSO, the military unit tasked with guarding the president. Russia's National Guard has been fighting in Ukraine and has reportedly suffered heavy casualties.

Which is on top of what happened at the weekend.

Over the weekend, Putin also arrested the head and deputy head of a unit within the FSB, Russia's spy organisation, which had been responsible for pre-invasion intelligence in Ukraine.

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, two Russian journalists considered best connected to Russia's intelligence community, said Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, the head of the FSB's Fifth Service, and his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh, had been arrested for corruption and intelligence failings.

"It looks like two weeks into the war, it finally dawned on Putin that he was completely misled. The department, fearful of his responses, seems to have told Putin what he wanted to hear," they wrote in an article for the Centre for European Policy Analysis, a Washington-based think tank.

Paywall busted link to full article - archive.ph

 

[Cid]

Its a bit late and Im tired so I might have forgotten something really obvious, but right now I'm a little bit confused by this bit in a John Simpson piece:

Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call

Russia's president revealed his peace conditions in a phone call - the BBC spoke to someone who listened in.

www.bbc.co.uk

My confusion is, whats actually missing from Russias demands mentioned in the piece that we would have expected to be included?

I think he means that, if these were Russia's goals, it wasn't worth the invasion. It's quite a weird article though... I mean a) I'm guessing those were not Putin's goals, and b) he brushes off disarmament of Ukraine as just a 'face-saving' thing for Putin, and easy for Ukraine to accept.

 

[emanymton]

I think he means that, if these were Russia's goals, it wasn't worth the invasion. It's quite a weird article though... I mean a) I'm guessing those were not Putin's goals, and b) he brushes off disarmament of Ukraine as just a 'face-saving' thing for Putin, and easy for Ukraine to accept.

Yeah that struck out at me. Disarmament is huge it is barely mentioned. Honestly don't put much stock in this one.

 

[steveseagull]

Two for the price of one. His deputy also found himself in foreseen unfortunate circumstances

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yeah that struck out at me. Disarmament is huge it is barely mentioned. Honestly don't put much stock in this one.

But, the devil would be in the detail.

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia.

Realistically they weren't a threat to Russia anyway, so this 'disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia.' could just mean agreement not to develop nukes & other WMD's, which Russia claims they were doing and that was a threat to them, whereas Ukraine denies it, so it would be easy for them to agree they wouldn't develop them.

 

[Pickman's model]

Does doing a massive purge of your highest security & military people make the ones not yet defenestrated more loyal or less so idk. If it’s just an attempt to shift the blame for failures to ‘fifth columnists’ it still has unpredictable consequences.

Don't know it does either but it doesn't make them more competent

 

[Kaka Tim]

(posted in wrong thread - so transferred here )


Other reports telling a similar story -

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17. Russian forces made little territorial progress and continued to deploy reserve elements—including from the 1st Guards Tank Army and 810th Naval Infantry Brigade—in small force packets that are unlikely to prove decisive. Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties around Kharkiv, and Russian attempts to bypass the city of Izyum are unlikely to succeed. Russian forces continued assaults on Mariupol on March 17 but did not conduct any other successful advances from Crimea.

Institute for the Study of War

I think there was an expectation that after the Russians had regrouped and resupplied they would unleash a strong assault on Kiev - but this doesnt seem to be happening - which suggests that they just haven't got the resources to do it. If the above is correct im not sure how much longer the main attack on Kiev can carry on if the Ukranians keep going after their supplies. As someone pointed out upthread - they are clearly getting good intel on Russian positions - where command and supply centres are etc - and this may prove to be decisive (russian mlitiary not expecting that there own logistics would be vulnerable may be a factor too) . It maybe at some point soon the russian forces around kiev will not be able to operate effectively.
I know Elbows has consistently expressed scepticism about claims of wide spread Russian setbacks but so far those claims have been pretty much backed up by subsequent events.