I think Belarus may be a more likely place for an organised uprising - it’s been attempted in very recent times and there is some resistance to playing Putin’s game already - troops refusing to mobilise, Russian supply trains being disrupted. They haven’t had the social media crackdown yet as in Russia proper, platforms like TikTok still widely used and anti-war stuff circulating there. If I were looking to influence/support opposition groups then this would be a better shot than Russia. It’s also where ballistic missiles are being launched at Kyiv, so valuable if it can be taken out of play (though Russian troops are unlikely to go home without a fight). It’d piss Putin off if the invasion of Ukraine ended with losing a puppet state rather than gaining one.
I don’t know if there is strong kinship between Ukraine and Belarus, or if stronger links are with Russia. Wikipedia tells me that Russian is the mother tongue for 70% of the population, and most trade is with Russia, so I guess historically it’s been the latter. Maybe
steeplejack can elaborate on this a bit?
oof, a very complicated question.
It's still too early to tell I think if Belarus offers a "likelier" route to a popular uprising. The implications of 24th February (and the Belarusian constiutional referendum of 27 February, which removed Belarus' neutrality and permitted the storage of nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory) will take a time to make themselves felt.
On the Belarusian military, it is
rumoured that some senior military officials are fundamentally opposed to Belarusian participation in the war, beyond the logisitical support being offered already. It is
rumoured that Belarusian units have refused to saddle up and go to the front- the last suggestion I saw being that Russian officers would take command of Belarusian regiments. There's been a lot of hyperventilation this week about the possible deployment of Belarusian paratroopers from Brest (nothing has happened yet), and some heavy explosions in the south of Belarus two nights ago, which even led to a brief (false) rumour that a coup against the regime was underway. There have been many false twitter posts about Belarus entering the war (it hasn't) and Ukrainians or Russians staging false flag attacks to try and provoke / drag Belarus in (all bollocks thus far).
The big question now is how much control Lukashenko has over the Belarusian military (my guess is, his is not the final decision anymore). There's a sense in which he's now a regional governor of an autonomous province, much like Kadyrov is in Chechnya. On that topic, Russian / Chechen military police are now rumoured to be quite active in the militarised south,.with civilians drivers being issued with fines by them for motoring offences.
Yes, the Belarusians were coy on recognising the absurd LPR and DPR, and haven't yet done so, but there is a sense that Lukashenko all of a sudden is not so important. His job is to maintain the repression of the Belarusian citizens which unfortunately he and his various security formations- KGB, GUBOPIK, OMON- are very effective at. A schooltecher in Babryusk was arrested and jailed shortly after the invasion for wearing yellow and blue ribbons in her hair- denounced by a colleague to OMON, who came and arrested her in the middle of a class. Lukashenko is also useful "meat in the room" when Putin is attempting to demonstrate the support of friendly governments for his actions (see the "nuclear drills" the Saturday before the invasion started).
Belarus certainly is a big hospital for the Russian army's wounded and morgue for its dead. Cities such as Mazyr and Babryusk, to a lesser extent Gomel, are now major transit points for Russian casualites, on the way back to Russia. The Russian presence is also felt on the rental market for properties, in smaller cities such as Luninets and Baranovichi which have major air / missile facilities and will be prime targets if Belarus does enter the war formally.
In terms of kinship, it's an impossibly entangled question and not really whether Belarus or Ukraine is closer to Russia. For the average Russian, I think Ukraine is of much more significance- particulalrly Kyiv. Belarus by contrast is seen more as potato country. However both countries are very closely entwined with not only Russian identity and sense of self, but how it wants to be seen in future. The long history of Kievan Rus', the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the disasters of Napoleon, the Russian Civil War, Barbarossa, all engulf these countries and bind them into a common narrative. The role of the various churches on the territories of the three countries are also of vital importance even if chronicling histories of religious obscurantism is not really my bag. I hear that the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church is coming under pressure from the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Pope to make a staement condemining the warf, but refuses to do so.
Both Belarus and Ukraine are integral to the imperialist "Russky Mir" vision of Putin and his deranged far-right courtiers. It's pretty clear Ukraine won't be part of Russki Mir anytime soon. Sadly Belarus has already been lost, both to dictatorship and Russian occupation, with both Western sanctions (nice optics but as full of holes as a Swiss cheese) and democratic blandishments proving of little substance. Menawhile Tikhanovskaya is attempting to distinguish between the regime and the Belarusian people, and ally her pro-democracy struggle with that of the resistance ot Russian aggression by Ukraine. Belarusians, senior regime circles and self-serving catchfart functionaries apart, are fundamentally opposed to the war- around 90% opposed in my view.
The only way to get rid of Lukashenko (and a big chance was missed in August 2020 with the benefit of hindsight) is through armed uprising. But what then would the reaction be of the Russian occupiers? Timing as always is an impossible question- whether to do it now, as a shock, or to wait until the Russian military is further degraded through staggering losses of men and material in Ukraine. And if the Russian military seems hollowed out by corruption, shoddily organised in terms of logistics, and of very low morale, why would they put down a popular uprising in Belarus? The answer is perhaps twofold; the Belarusian army is not an army like in a coup elsewhere in the Global South, willing to switch sides for political influence or money; secondly, a deep-seated, visceral fear of civil war. An armed uprising is fraught with danger and risks for those perpetrating it but still is necessary if people want democratic change- which they do.
Whether it comes or not, whether there is any substance or not to rumours about the unhappiness of the military and their refusal to fight, only time will tell. Sorry for the Berchtesgadian monologue.
Here's a picture of an ordinary day in Luninets from this week.
More optimistically, one of many guerrilla anti-war posters in Minsk.
ig.ft.com
but it just highlights how much.
