Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[strung out]

This is interesting from a former Soviet state, coming hot on the heels of Kazakhstan deciding to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

 

[steveseagull]

Outside of that again, the evidence is that the Russian state is full on paranoid and likely to clamp down quickly on any developing movements. Perhaps some hope that their intelligence community has some of the flaws the military does... It just seems like stretching though.

Seems like the top brass are completely ignoring their intelligence agencies and the intelligence agencies are only telling them what they want to hear so it does seem to be in the same state as the Armed Forces

 

[bimble]

This

Missed that sorry, must have been in the middle of the argy bargy back and forth that I skim past.

 

[bimble]

Perhaps the most blatant lie since "We have no intention of invading Ukraine":

"Our armed forces don’t bomb cities. Everyone is well aware of this,” Maria V. Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, said on Thursday.

With this level of lying being standard policy, the only way you could make any sort of meaningful peace settlement with them (if you were Ukraine I mean) would have to be cast iron legally binding guarantees from other countries that they’d step in and protect you if Russia invaded again. I see no other way, so can’t imagine it will be possible to arrive at a deal just between the two countries directly involved.

 

[dilute micro]

With this level of lying being standard policy, the only way you could make any sort of meaningful peace settlement with them (if you were Ukraine I mean) would have to be cast iron legally binding guarantees from other countries that they’d step in and protect you if Russia invaded again. I see no other way, so can’t imagine it will be possible to arrive at a deal just between the two countries directly involved.

Or NATO could pretend to invade Ukraine. How's that for icing on Putin's cake?

 

[Cid]

Skype still works for me.

I suppose what would be genuinely helpful is supporting anti war Russians/Russian speakers over here.

 

[Rimbaud]

This is interesting from a former Soviet state, coming hot on the heels of Kazakhstan deciding to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

This is a really important part of this IMO.

Russia is in decline, not only relative to the west, but relative to Asia.

China used to view Russia as their "big brother" and still have that residual respect for it. But it doesn't change that now China is richer per capita than Russia and has 10x as many people. Russia's entire economy is smaller than that of Guangdong province alone, population isn't too dissimilar either. China has interests in Russia's Central Asian back yard too.

This is on top of India, another old ally of Russia who now dwarves its economy and is likely going to be the 3rd largest economy by the end of this decade, and could also potentially overtake China by the 2040s/2050s. Central Asia is also their backyard.

Russian decline is in some ways a symptom of the world becoming more multipolar, and I don't think their "near abroad" is sustainable.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction for the next half century of Russian history:

Step 1 - After the war, Russia will become an impoverished client state of China.
Step 2 - China will overplay its hand, creating anti-Chinese, pro-European sentiment in Russia.
Step 3 - NATO countries and the west will support a democracy/westernisation movement in Russia which succeeds because of how it can coexist with the powerful force of Russian nationalism.
Step 4 - Russia joins NATO and/or the EU, or whatever equivalent exists by that time

 

[nogojones]

This is so weird. Our defence secretary was on the phone to a fake Zelensky today. Don’t they have secret passwords or secretaries or anything.

The fucking moron. I bet he spilled loads of state secrets and battle plans before he twigged.

 

[bimble]

The fucking moron. I bet he spilled loads of state secrets and battle plans before he twigged.

Or sent a load of weapons to the wrong country by mistake yeah.

 

[existentialist]

Arnie steps up. Arnie is very very popular in Russia with people of a certain age. Hopefully it will get through Russia's Iron Digital Curtain

Wonderfully theatrical, but it felt heartfelt. I hope it does some good.

 

[Spymaster]

This is so weird. Our defence secretary was on the phone to a fake Zelensky today. Don’t they have secret passwords or secretaries or anything.

That's a conversation I'd have kept quiet about if I was Ben

 

[Cid]

That's a conversation I'd have kept quiet about if I was Ben

Probably getting ahead of the inevitable leak.

 

[nogojones]

This is so weird. Our defence secretary was on the phone to a fake Zelensky today. Don’t they have secret passwords or secretaries or anything.

Dear Mr Ben

My name is President Zelensky and I am a Ukrainian prince.

I have 7 Million US dollars resting in an offshore account and because of the godless Russian invasion I cannot move it to Europe to buy new anty-tank bombs.

If you send me your bank account details I will deposit the 7 Million in your account and ask that you only retain One million for your services. We can then buy lots of bombs.

Good be with you. God bless the Queen Lizrbaeth.

You're Truly

Mr President Zelensky

 

[kebabking]

I suppose what would be genuinely helpful is supporting anti war Russians/Russian speakers over here.

The question is, how can they be supported - politically or otherwise - without giving Putin an excuse to brand them all as tools of western liberalism and traitors to mother Russia?

 

[DaveCinzano]

Unless he actually meant President rather than PM, then it was a fake Shmyhal, not a fake Zelenskyy.

 

[existentialist]

Seems like the top brass are completely ignoring their intelligence agencies and the intelligence agencies are only telling them what they want to hear so it does seem to be in the same state as the Armed Forces

It's a perennial problem. If you like power, the chances are that you don't much like people telling you things you don't want to hear. So those people either STFU, or quietly fade out, and you end up with a personal version of the Facebook echo chamber.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But only one of us is suggesting that their interests 'don't currently overlap [with those of western states] as much as I'm suggesting', whilst Ukrainians of all classes take up British, German, and American arms and get full-square behind their government.

This is also projection. The fact that Ukrainians are fighting to defend themselves from invasion does not equate to an automatic endorsement of the Zelensky govt.

 

[SpackleFrog]

How though? Russia is walled-off in communication terms. We can reach those with VPNs, but that's just talking to people who were already politically aware enough to get on top of that. Communications with unions etc are always going to mediated by whoever is keeping an eye on that... It's essentially attempting to wage a propaganda war with the Russian state, which is probably quite difficult. I mean people have been doing just that of course, though afaik more from a general awareness perspective.

I'm guessing Russian socialists who are actually in Russia and are consequently a bit more relevant than us, have been trying to do this for... Well, I mean the history is there. What revolutionary potential can we add to that? We can't provide legal support, we can't provide financial support etc.

I am actually entirely with you that a mobilised Russian populace is one of the only long-term routes out of this. But we have no idea what form that would take... dissatisfaction in the military is a hellishly risky thing to be dicing with - as likely to bring another authoritarian colonel (why the fuck is it always colonels; someone write a book called 'colonels and coups') to the fore as anything else. Outside of that again, the evidence is that the Russian state is full on paranoid and likely to clamp down quickly on any developing movements. Perhaps some hope that their intelligence community has some of the flaws the military does... It just seems like stretching though.

I do fully understand your point and I don't have ready answers, I wish I did, I suppose my point is that nobody is trying to work out how we might do this and that scares me.

Just on the financial support, why can't we provide that sorry?

 

[SpackleFrog]

How many times do I need to keep repeating I've only ever said we should supply weapons, before that will sink into that thick head of yours?

I'm just interested in your reasoning and how you arrive at the conclusions. Don't get so touchy! Take it as a compliment.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The question is, how can they be supported - politically or otherwise - without giving Putin an excuse to brand them all as tools of western liberalism and traitors to mother Russia?

He's doing that anyway though, what difference does that make?

 

[teqniq]

Probably getting ahead of the inevitable leak.

Patel now claiming the same:

 

[Cid]

I do fully understand your point and I don't have ready answers, I wish I did, I suppose my point is that nobody is trying to work out how we might do this and that scares me.

Just on the financial support, why can't we provide that sorry?

Banking restrictions. Though I don't fully understand that, may be ways. There probably are a bunch of other factors that would make it tricky in any case (I imagine any significant effort would be met with Russian treason laws pretty quickly), but I think sanctions prevent it already.

 

[Cid]

Patel now claiming the same:

Patel of course has probably been conducting high level talks with him, in secret, just between the two of them, and has only just twigged.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Banking restrictions. Though I don't fully understand that, may be ways. There probably are a bunch of other factors that would make it tricky in any case (I imagine any significant effort would be met with it Russian treason laws pretty quickly), but I think sanctions prevent it already.

And that's partly why I'm worried about how sanctions work in practice.

Hopefully there are ways though. Not that I would know where to start.

 

[A380]

Missed that sorry, must have been in the middle of the argy bargy back and forth that I skim past.

Wasn't meant to be a dig sorry, just a link to the source material.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Supposedly Russian troops pulled out of South Ossetia so that’s interesting if true

 

[frogwoman]

Supposedly Russian troops pulled out of South Ossetia so that’s interesting if true

Spurce?

 

[Spymaster]

The fact that Ukrainians are fighting to defend themselves from invasion does not equate to an automatic endorsement of the Zelensky govt.

Most certainly not, but it gives a bit of a lie to your to your insistence that the best way to support them is through means other than the provision of military hardware.

To the average Ukrainian, currently starving and being shelled to buggery, your support in the form of attempting to mobilise the Russian working class to rise-up against Putin, instead of giving them NLAWS, is probably about as valued as a turd in a swimming pool.

 

[Rimbaud]

Supposedly Russian troops pulled out of South Ossetia so that’s interesting if true

In Georgia, Calls Emerge To Retake South Ossetia, Abkhazia

As Russia finds itself increasingly bogged down in Ukraine, social media appeals have emerged in Georgia, a country all too familiar with Russian military aggression, urging people there to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, lands lost in the 2008 war with Russia.

www.rferl.org

Couldn't find a source for that, but in the process of searching I found this claiming that there are calls in Georgia to retake Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which would surely compound Russia's problems.

Disclaimer- they are just calls on social media which doesn't mean anything and this may just be Radio Free Europe trying to stir the pot.

 

[bimble]

I don’t suppose this means a lot, if I had a private jet and had seen Putin’s speech yesterday I’d be getting out to wherever possible asap too.