Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Spymaster]

So you are saying that you are absolutely certain that in a few months time sanctions will be put in place on Gazprom/Gazprom bank? I think your belief that you can be certain about what is going to happen is absurd.

Well you do this a lot. It’s very dishonest. I’ve said nothing like I’m absolutely certain of anything. However, I think we can be very confident that “the west” is currently working very hard to reduce its dependency on Russian fuel.

My point about Gazprombank remaining unsanctioned is not that makes supplying weapons pointless (although if you are financing Russia's invasion through buying gas it may well cancel it out) but just to highlight that Western states are supplying military aid to Ukraine because it suits their interests to do so, and that it is naive to think that they are motivated by what is best for ordinary Ukrainians.

Fuck me; ‘States act mostly out of self interest’.

Chomsky’s got nothing on you!

In this case it’s a fortunate coincidence that the interests of most states and the people of Ukraine, overlap massively.

 

[Yossarian]

Perhaps the most blatant lie since "We have no intention of invading Ukraine":

"Our armed forces don’t bomb cities. Everyone is well aware of this,” Maria V. Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, said on Thursday.

 

[JimW]

Perhaps the most blatant lie since "We have no intention of invading Ukraine":

"Our armed forces don’t bomb cities. Everyone is well aware of this,” Maria V. Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, said on Thursday.

Pound hospitals with artillery from land and sea though...we're all about that.

 

[Dystopiary]

At the present rate there will be very few women and children, or elderly men, left in much of the Ukraine. Lots of men of fighting age with lots of weaponry. Will Russia be able to pacify and control such a country? If there is no ceasefire agreement I can't see much future in Putin's attempt at empire building. ( I can't see much future for Ukrainians either).

Lots of the people fighting/defending are women, both those who were already in the military and those who've taken up arms more recently.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Arguing that a struggle against Russian imperialism should be led by the organised Ukrainian working classes and that is what we should be actively supporting is kind of irrelevant when there is no realistic possibility of that happening. From what i can see the majority of Ukrainians have enthusiastically thrown in their lot with their government as they believe their interests are one and the same. Good luck arguing them out of that.

What about the Russian working class? Conscripts, rank and file soldiers sick of being I'll equipped cannon fodder. workers in factory towns hit by sanctions and hyperinflation.

I wouldn't bet against at least one of those being a significant factor in how this all ends.

Or is that a bit too Rick from the young ones for you too?

 

[bimble]

Just saw this. Even more convinced the negotiations are, for now, just a bit of propaganda & theatre from Russia.

Vladimir Putin accused of war crimes as school and theatre are hit in Ukraine

British foreign secretary says there is ‘very strong evidence’, and France says Putin is only pretending to negotiate

www.theguardian.com

 

[Artaxerxes]

And indeed the graun has just reposted this from Reuters:

The big gap being Russia is blowing up chunks of Ukraine and its people

 

[JimW]

Just saw this. Even more convinced the negotiations are, for now, just a bit of propaganda & theatre from Russia.

Vladimir Putin accused of war crimes as school and theatre are hit in Ukraine

British foreign secretary says there is ‘very strong evidence’, and France says Putin is only pretending to negotiate

www.theguardian.com

What's been said about the situation in the field setting the parameters for talks strikes me as true, and that neither side thinks they've exhausted the military option yet, so afraid it will drag on.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Arguing that a struggle against Russian imperialism should be led by the organised Ukrainian working classes and that is what we should be actively supporting is kind of irrelevant when there is no realistic possibility of that happening. From what i can see the majority of Ukrainians have enthusiastically thrown in their lot with their government as they believe their interests are one and the same. Good luck arguing them out of that.

That wasn't the argument I was making though, at all. I was talking about what the working class in Russia and around the world could potentially do.

I totally agree the majority of Ukrainians will likely see their interests as one and the same with their govt right now by the way. They won't forever though.

By the way, in Kherson which is already occupied, people are protesting every day. Kherson: Russian-occupied city stays angry and defiant

 

[elbows]

Just saw this. Even more convinced the negotiations are, for now, just a bit of propaganda & theatre from Russia.

Yeah such theatre is usually part of things, as are accusations from multiple quarters that a side is acting in bad faith and are not really serious about the talks.

Mind you, I tend to think that even when neither side expects peace to emerge from the current round of talks, it still lays the groundwork on the technical side of things for more meaningful talks at some later stage. At a minimum it means parties gain clues about the details of potential future wiggle room, and neither party will be going in cold/starting from scratch should such a scenario arise in future.

 

[Kaka Tim]

What about the Russian working class? Conscripts, rank and file soldiers sick of being I'll equipped cannon fodder. workers in factory towns hit by sanctions and hyperinflation.

I wouldn't bet against at least one of those being a significant factor in how this all ends.

Or is that a bit too Rick from the young ones for you too?

is there an organised Russian working class who are likely to take up the fight against their masters? Id love to see mass mutinies and a general strike that brought putin's war machine to a halt - but that is far more likely to happen through ordinary ukrainians fighting like fuck (And the former probably couldn't happen without the latter). And my understanding is that much of the Russian anti war movement is concentrated amongst younger, well educated Russians in the cities who probably dont see themselves as part of an international working class.

 

[SpackleFrog]

FFS, SpackleFrog, you have just quoted me saying 'WEAPONS', not jets, and not a NFZ, which funny enough means just 'WEAPONS', the whole bloody discussion from the start was just about 'WEAPONS', not jets, and not a NFZ.

It's so easy, if you only follow the discussion, read the words and understand them.

I don't undertand why you're getting upset. I just asked you to clarify whether you were applying the same logic to the question of weapons as to the question of the no fly zone.

I just want to check I'm getting this right - you are saying that in the case of weapons, thats what Ukraine is asking for so thats what Western states should supply and it would be immoral not to do that. But in the case of the no fly zone, you are saying that although Ukraine is asking for it, Western states should not agree to this. Is that correct?

 

[kebabking]

What about the Russian working class? Conscripts, rank and file soldiers sick of being I'll equipped cannon fodder. workers in factory towns hit by sanctions and hyperinflation.

I wouldn't bet against at least one of those being a significant factor in how this all ends.

Or is that a bit too Rick from the young ones for you too?

See, in the medium to long term I wouldn't fall off my chair is those actors did become important players in Russia's political bearpit, but now, or next week, or in 3 months, possibly even 6 months? Nah.

There's also the danger that in highlighting/celebrating Russian internal opposition we give the Putin regime ammunition to portray it as being a western front, enemies within, traitors and all the other good stuff that justifies them being sent off to count trees in Siberia.

I also take the view that a hard military and economic defeat is a prerequisite for serious internal opposition - which requires enduring, large scale military and logistic support to the Ukrainian state (and possibly groups if the state apparatus is destroyed?) - though, of course, I understand that a more peaceable Russia isn't there only potential outcome of such a defeat...

 

[SpackleFrog]

Well you do this a lot. It’s very dishonest. I’ve said nothing like I’m absolutely certain of anything. However, I think we can be very confident that “the west” is currently working very hard to reduce its dependency on Russian fuel.

You said it was a matter of fact, I took that as you saying you were certain of it. Aplogies. If you're saying it's very likely then I don't think that's absurd, although I do think it's wrong.

In this case it’s a fortunate coincidence that the interests of most states and the people of Ukraine, overlap massively.

I don't think they overlap as much as you are suggesting, at all.

 

[Dogsauce]

think that was Melitopol

Other places reported that he was released by Russia. I think the words Ukraine gov used was ‘extracted’ rather than rescued, so possibly consistent with this.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't undertand why you're getting upset. I just asked you to clarify whether you were applying the same logic to the question of weapons as to the question of the no fly zone.

I just want to check I'm getting this right - you are saying that in the case of weapons, thats what Ukraine is asking for so thats what Western states should supply and it would be immoral not to do that. But in the case of the no fly zone, you are saying that although Ukraine is asking for it, Western states should not agree to this. Is that correct?

How many times do I need to keep repeating I've only ever said we should supply weapons, before that will sink into that thick head of yours?

 

[Spymaster]

What about the Russian working class? Conscripts, rank and file soldiers sick of being I'll equipped cannon fodder. workers in factory towns hit by sanctions and hyperinflation.

Is it only the Russian working class that will be hit then? Will dentists, doctors, lawyers, small business owners, and all the the other non-working class folk, be unaffected and think Putin's ace?

 

[bimble]

This is so weird. Our defence secretary was on the phone to a fake Zelensky today. Don’t they have secret passwords or secretaries or anything.

 

[Spymaster]

I don't think they overlap as much as you are suggesting, at all.

Well they seem to disagree with you. The silly sods clearly don't know what's best for them.

And the "matter of fact" referred to certain EU nations dependence on Russian fuel, not the certainty of imminent santions on Gazprom/bank. I think you knew that though.

 

[JimW]

We're sadly so atomised and enmeshed in the coils of an ever more complex economic dispensation that it might only be as the necessary defenders of the homeland that we realise and remember the true power is ours together, only sudden catastrophe seems to break through the new normal now.
So if anywhere, it'll be in Ukraine we see the class act, as has begun in the mutual aid we've read reports of. Even though Russians will suffer horribly back home too, not sharply and acutely enough to tip the balance against the controls, I think. And history says that even if Ukrainians want to win the peace afterwards too, gains often get promptly clawed back as the dust settles.

 

[SpackleFrog]

is there an organised Russian working class who are likely to take up the fight against their masters? Id love to see mass mutinies and a general strike that brought putin's war machine to a halt - but that is far more likely to happen through ordinary ukrainians fighting like fuck (And the former probably couldn't happen without the latter). And my understanding is that much of the Russian anti war movement is concentrated amongst younger, well educated Russians in the cities who probably dont see themselves as part of an international working class.

The main union federation, the Confederation of Labour of Russia which has around 1.25million members, has expressed opposition but it's been very lukewarm. Just calling for an end to the invasion and diplomatic solutions. There are independent unions who have made much stronger calls though. There are also unions in Belarus mobilising against the war, the metal workers union has had raids on its office in response and leaders arrested.

Much of the anti-war movement is young people, definitely. They may not see themselves as part of an internationalist working class but they probably do see themselves as internationalist to some extent. It will be in the cities yes but in the first week following the invasion there were protests in 58 cities.

The point that I'm trying to make though is not that the movement exists but that if it can be built, we could help with that.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Is it only the Russian working class that will be hit then? Will dentists, doctors, lawyers, small business owners, and all the the other non-working class folk, be unaffected and think Putin's ace?

They're not gonna be immiserated in the same way if that's what you mean. But yeah, other classes will also feel the impact.

 

[JimW]

Is it only the Russian working class that will be hit then? Will dentists, doctors, lawyers, small business owners, and all the the other non-working class folk, be unaffected and think Putin's ace?

They usually retain enough of a stake in the way things are to stay onside as a class, though obviously individuals vary.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Well they seem to disagree with you. The silly sods clearly don't know what's best for them.

And the "matter of fact" referred to certain EU nations dependence on Russian fuel, not the certainty of imminent santions on Gazprom/bank. I think you knew that though.

Genuine mistake, I read you as saying it was a matter of fact they were working towards that, apologies.

I think neither of us is well placed to give an accurate picture on how Ukrainians view their class interests.

 

[bimble]

Ukraine’s electricity supply has been unplugged from dependence on Russia and connected up to the EU’s grid instead. Or something much more complicated but similar. Clever stuff. Actual good news but also symbolically it will piss Putin right off.

Press corner

Highlights, press releases and speeches

ec.europa.eu

 

[A380]

Ukraine’s electricity supply has been unplugged from dependence on Russia and connected up to the EU’s grid instead. Or something much more complicated but similar. Clever stuff. Actual good news but also symbolically it will piss Putin right off.

Press corner

Highlights, press releases and speeches

ec.europa.eu

This

ENTSO-E, the European organisation for national electricity transmission system operators (TSOs - think National Grid in the UK) have announced that they have synchronised Ukraine's grid to the main European synchronous area - basically it means its now much easier to send energy into Ukraine.

Continental Europe successful synchronisation with Ukraine and Moldova power systems

www.entsoe.eu

 

[Spymaster]

I think neither of us is well placed to give an accurate picture on how Ukrainians view their class interests.

But only one of us is suggesting that their interests 'don't currently overlap [with those of western states] as much as I'm suggesting', whilst Ukrainians of all classes take up British, German, and American arms and get full-square behind their government.

 

[steveseagull]

Arnie steps up. Arnie is very very popular in Russia with people of a certain age. Hopefully it will get through Russia's Iron Digital Curtain

 

[Cid]

The point that I'm trying to make though is not that the movement exists but that if it can be built, we could help with that.

How though? Russia is walled-off in communication terms. We can reach those with VPNs, but that's just talking to people who were already politically aware enough to get on top of that. Communications with unions etc are always going to mediated by whoever is keeping an eye on that... It's essentially attempting to wage a propaganda war with the Russian state, which is probably quite difficult. I mean people have been doing just that of course, though afaik more from a general awareness perspective.

I'm guessing Russian socialists who are actually in Russia and are consequently a bit more relevant than us, have been trying to do this for... Well, I mean the history is there. What revolutionary potential can we add to that? We can't provide legal support, we can't provide financial support etc.

I am actually entirely with you that a mobilised Russian populace is one of the only long-term routes out of this. But we have no idea what form that would take... dissatisfaction in the military is a hellishly risky thing to be dicing with - as likely to bring another authoritarian colonel (why the fuck is it always colonels; someone write a book called 'colonels and coups') to the fore as anything else. Outside of that again, the evidence is that the Russian state is full on paranoid and likely to clamp down quickly on any developing movements. Perhaps some hope that their intelligence community has some of the flaws the military does... It just seems like stretching though.

 

[frogwoman]

Skype still works for me.