Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Rimbaud]

surely some arabs' political views find expression in religious terms and some in secular terms, similarly with russians.

I can't speak for Zizek but I've heard others make the point that Putin's Kremlin is more similar to Al Qaeda's neo-medievalist millenarianism than it is to the modernist mission of the Soviet Union.

Irrespective of what individual Russians may believe, Zizek is presumably talking about the ideological outlook of the Russian state and it is definitely a credible and serious comparison, even if he phrases it in typically proactive terms.

There are quite a lot of serious studies on Putinist ideology which make this case, e.g. this book:

Putin’s Dark Ages: Political Neomedievalism and Re-Stalinization in Russia

Two decades before the war against Ukraine, a “special operation” was launched against Russian historical memory, aggressively reshaping the nation’s understanding of its history and identity. The Kremlin’s militarization of Russia through World War II propaganda is well documented, but the...

www.routledge.com

 

[The39thStep]

Capitalism always finds a way.

So very true and sadly although capitalism could find a way to resolve so many many injustices in life , it just shovels a few pennies in a hat for the sake of conscience or turns the other cheek.

 

[Pickman's model]

I can't speak for Zizek but I've heard others make the point that Putin's Kremlin is more similar to Al Qaeda's neo-medievalist millenarianism than it is to the modernist mission of the Soviet Union.

Irrespective of what individual Russians may believe, Zizek is presumably talking about the ideological outlook of the Russian state and it is definitely a credible and serious comparison, even if he phrases it in typically proactive terms.

There are quite a lot of serious studies on Putinist ideology which make this case, e.g. this book:

Putin’s Dark Ages: Political Neomedievalism and Re-Stalinization in Russia

Two decades before the war against Ukraine, a “special operation” was launched against Russian historical memory, aggressively reshaping the nation’s understanding of its history and identity. The Kremlin’s militarization of Russia through World War II propaganda is well documented, but the...

www.routledge.com

there's a lot of people argue we live in a neomedieval world, eg the rand corporation https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1887-1.html. i find it difficult to believe that a modern insurgent organisation like aq, wedded to modern technology, using the internet in a very innovative fashion, imaginatively using both box-cutters and aircraft, can really be described as neomedieval outside the sort of framework rand identify. and russia may be a really authoritarian state but over the past century it's been at the cutting edge of military thinking. i've linked to a very interesting article about that a day or two back (if you search 'west point' you'll find it). for instance, it was soviet military thinkers who came up with the operational level of warfare, not - as i'd thought - clausewitz or one of his western successors. this is important as gerasimov has drawn largely on these interwar soviet thinkers to develop russia's way of war. for me, putin's use of religion is a very machiavellian use of religion - of tying religion to the interests of the state, using it to promote the state's policies and as an additional legitimising influence for the state (i'm thinking of the way machiavelli addresses religion in the discourses).

as for your book, it's worth remembering that this country was utterly fascinated by the middle ages for much of the nineteenth century, a fascination which has left a very clear architectural legacy in the palace of westminster and churches up and down the land. even now cry god for harry etc is a hardy perennial. yet it's the people we don't like who are always associated now with the middle ages and not us.

 

[emanymton]

There’s been loads of tables , graphs and articles which have explored this and other ways Russia has mediated the sanctions . I suppose that in itself isn’t surprising, what is and has been the posturing from western states about how they would tighten the screw ,and their apparant inability to come up with plan B .

We don't have a complete picture though, they will expect Russia to find there way around them, the question is by how much and at what extra cost. We don't know that or what the expectations were. And them being full of bluster and bullshit just muddies the water even more.

If Russia used to import 1000 of X at a coat of USD100 each and they are now importing 100 at a cost USD500, that seems pretty effective to me, but someone will still put some stuff on Twitter about Russia beating sanctions because of that 100.

This was the other issue I had with the "car graph" even if all of the increase is going in to Russia (which I doubt), it doesn't mean anything without knowing what the number going directly into Russia before sanctions was. The value on that graph could be anything from 1pct to 100pct of the previous figure for all I know and the perosn posting it doesn't say, so it means nothing.

 

[emanymton]

We don't have a complete picture though, they will expect Russia to find there way around them, the question is by how much and at what extra cost. We don't know that or what the expectations were. And them being full of bluster and bullshit just muddies the water even more.

If Russia used to import 1000 of X at a coat of USD100 each and they are now importing 100 at a cost USD500, that seems pretty effective to me, but someone will still put some stuff on Twitter about Russia beating sanctions because of that 100.

This was the other issue I had with the "car graph" even if all of the increase is going in to Russia (which I doubt), it doesn't mean anything without knowing what the number going directly into Russia before sanctions was. The value on that graph could be anything from 1pct to 100pct of the previous figure for all I know and the perosn posting it doesn't say, so it means nothing.

If anyone is interested I found this.

UK trade with Russia - Office for National Statistics

Goods and services the UK trades with Russia.

www.ons.gov.uk

The main exports from the UK to Russia in 2021 were machinery and transport equipment (£1.5 billion) and chemicals (£0.7 billion). Cars accounted for £0.4 billion of the machinery and transport equipment exports; 1.6% of the UK’s total car exports 2021

 

[discokermit]

in the same period china has gone from third biggest exporter of cars in the world to first. a big part of that will be supplying russia.

 

[emanymton]

in the same period china has gone from third biggest exporter of cars in the world to first. a big part of that will be supplying russia.

So which is are the sanctions working or not? Because that contradicts the idea that they are not working.

 

[discokermit]

not. they are being bypassed by other countries and china is making up any shortfall. seems like a lot of cars going into russia whichever way you look at it, which would suggest they are not working as intended.
germany has slipped from second to third in regards to car export and japan from top to second so i reckon china will think the sanctions are working great.

 

[emanymton]

not. they are being bypassed by other countries and china is making up any shortfall. seems like a lot of cars going into russia whichever way you look at it, which would suggest they are not working as intended.
germany has slipped from second to third in regards to car export and japan from top to second so i reckon china will think the sanctions are working great.

So what you are saying is China has a interest in the sanctions on Russia continuing, which is a desirable outcome itself.

 

[Pickman's model]

So what you are saying is China has a interest in the sanctions on Russia continuing, which is a desirable outcome itself.

Because...

 

[tim]

9,000 children evacuated from Belgorod and 16 left dead in the last week after attacks from Ukraine and deniable militia chums.

Ukraine war: Thousands of children to be evacuated from Belgorod after strikes

 

[The39thStep]

We don't have a complete picture though, they will expect Russia to find there way around them, the question is by how much and at what extra cost. We don't know that or what the expectations were. And them being full of bluster and bullshit just muddies the water even more.

If Russia used to import 1000 of X at a coat of USD100 each and they are now importing 100 at a cost USD500, that seems pretty effective to me, but someone will still put some stuff on Twitter about Russia beating sanctions because of that 100.

This was the other issue I had with the "car graph" even if all of the increase is going in to Russia (which I doubt), it doesn't mean anything without knowing what the number going directly into Russia before sanctions was. The value on that graph could be anything from 1pct to 100pct of the previous figure for all I know and the perosn posting it doesn't say, so it means nothing.

Sure just need to add that to a big picture discussion though

 

[discokermit]

So what you are saying is China has a interest in the sanctions on Russia continuing, which is a desirable outcome itself.

how so?

 

[gosub]

Big-Ticket, Expensive, Heavily Armored NATO Tanks Mostly Overweight Duds in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Considering how much kerchief-twisting there was about it in the first place, and how they are doing in the war right now, handing over top-end NATO tanks to Ukraine doesn’t look like a great idea.

www.kyivpost.com

Biggest headache (UAVs) seems to be telling which is friend and which is foe

 

[discokermit]

.

 

[Riklet]

I think Zizek's analysis is spot on tbh. And the minor comment about arabs and religious fundamentalism? Seriously who cares, this is just offense for offense's sake.

They have been too soft on Russia with the Ukraine response. The sanctions are weak and haven't hurt Russia economically, just disrupted life for ordinary Russians. Ukraine is still able to fend Russia off for now (the idea they are losing the war because theyve lost a few villages and 5km of land is a bit preemptive), but only through a proper bloody nose will they be able to deter future "Greater Russia" expansionism and aggression.

You can't negotiate from a place of weakness only of strength. Personally I think they should continue and up the campaign against Russian economic assets within Russia or even in other countries for the moment. Maybe take over Transnistria too

And in the end, it's better this happens now in a more isolated conflict than in 10 years in something much much worse and on a far larger scale. It's like people have learnt nothing from appeasement in the 30s, including many lefties and socialists on this thread.

 

[Rimbaud]

there's a lot of people argue we live in a neomedieval world, eg the rand corporation https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1887-1.html. i find it difficult to believe that a modern insurgent organisation like aq, wedded to modern technology, using the internet in a very innovative fashion, imaginatively using both box-cutters and aircraft, can really be described as neomedieval outside the sort of framework rand identify. and russia may be a really authoritarian state but over the past century it's been at the cutting edge of military thinking. i've linked to a very interesting article about that a day or two back (if you search 'west point' you'll find it). for instance, it was soviet military thinkers who came up with the operational level of warfare, not - as i'd thought - clausewitz or one of his western successors. this is important as gerasimov has drawn largely on these interwar soviet thinkers to develop russia's way of war. for me, putin's use of religion is a very machiavellian use of religion - of tying religion to the interests of the state, using it to promote the state's policies and as an additional legitimising influence for the state (i'm thinking of the way machiavelli addresses religion in the discourses).

as for your book, it's worth remembering that this country was utterly fascinated by the middle ages for much of the nineteenth century, a fascination which has left a very clear architectural legacy in the palace of westminster and churches up and down the land. even now cry god for harry etc is a hardy perennial. yet it's the people we don't like who are always associated now with the middle ages and not us.

I think you are ignoring the very explicitly ultra-right rejection of liberalism and the enlightenment in favour of mysticism and blood and soil which is what is meant by neo-medievalism and is where the point of similarity between the Kremlin and Islamic State lies.

As for 19th Century fascination with the middle ages, this was part of romanticism which was a reaction against modernism and enlightenment values and found political expression in fascism, even if its influence on the UK remained limited to aesthetics.

The combination of ultra-reactionary ideology with an embrace of modern technology is what distinguished 30s fascism from more benign forms of traditionalism. As Umberto Eco observed of Italian fascism and German Nazism:

Traditionalists implies the rejection of modernism. Both Fascists and Nazis worshiped technology, while traditionalist thinkers usually reject it as a negation of traditional spiritual values. However, even though Nazism was proud of its industrial achievements, its praise of modernism was only the surface of an ideology based upon Blood and Earth (Blut und Boden). The rejection of the modern world was disguised as a rebuttal of the capitalistic way of life, but it mainly concerned the rejection of the Spirit of 1789 (and of 1776, of course). The Enlightenment, the Age of Reason, is seen as the beginning of modern depravity. In this sense Ur-Fascism can be defined as irrationalism.

As for the RAND corporations use of the term neo-medievalism, that is referring to something completely different, the erosion of state sovereignty under globalisation, rather than an ultra-right rejection of modernist enlightenment values (but not of technology).

In the thread about Zizek linked to earlier there is a discussion about a disagreement he has with Chomsky, who rejects the theorising of continental philosophy in favour of an analytical approach. Zizek is right that a refusal to look at the nature of a political system in favour of isolated facts about it led him to be wrong about the Khmer Rouge, and it is no surprise that Chomsky is also wrong about Putin's Russia for the same reasons.

There were of course people on the left who opposed war against Nazi Germany (prior to 1941) and registered as conscientious objectors on the basis of drawing ethical equivalence with British or French imperialism and highlighted German legitimate grievances; the problem with them too was a refusal or failure to understand the nature of Hitler's regime.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think you are ignoring the very explicitly ultra-right rejection of liberalism and the enlightenment in favour of mysticism and blood and soil which is what is meant by neo-medievalism and is where the point of similarity between the Kremlin and Islamic State lies.

As for 19th Century fascination with the middle ages, this was part of romanticism which was a reaction against modernism and enlightenment values and found political expression in fascism, even if its influence on the UK remained limited to aesthetics.

The combination of ultra-reactionary ideology with an embrace of modern technology is what distinguished 30s fascism from more benign forms of traditionalism. As Umberto Eco observed of Italian fascism and German Nazism:



As for the RAND corporations use of the term neo-medievalism, that is referring to something completely different, the erosion of state sovereignty under globalisation, rather than an ultra-right rejection of modernist enlightenment values (but not of technology).

Yeh you're playing fast and loose with terms here. Take mysticism. You say that mysticism and blood and soil form this nm of which you speak. But aq are not mystics in the commonly understood meaning of the word. Their Islamism has been described as political Islam for a reason. Do they really believe that union with or absorption into the deity can be achieved through contemplation, or do they have a vague and ill-defined spiritual belief? I don't really think they do. And any suggestion they're blood and soil types is, I think, bs. AQ define more through religion than race. Where is AQ's soil? Did you mean to bring up AQ at all, being as you have dumped them now in favour of daesh?

And if there are clear problems with nm as applied to aq then there are likely problems with its application to Russia. Could you expand on putin's mysticism pls?

 

[Rimbaud]

Yeh you're playing fast and loose with terms here. Take mysticism. You say that mysticism and blood and soil form this nm of which you speak. But aq are not mystics in the commonly understood meaning of the word. Their Islamism has been described as political Islam for a reason. Do they really believe that union with or absorption into the deity can be achieved through contemplation, or do they have a vague and ill-defined spiritual belief? I don't really think they do. And any suggestion they're blood and soil types is, I think, bs. AQ define more through religion than race. Where is AQ's soil?

Sure, you're on stronger ground when you talk of Russia but if there are clear difficulties with one of the 2 examples of nm you hold up I'm sure there are problems with the other. Is Russian orthodox Christianity vague and ill-defined?

Theocracy is inherently mystical and inherently a rejection of modernism (loosely defined as rationalism, democratic values and small-l liberalism).You have a point that the caliphate is not strictly speaking blood and soil but it has a similar function to Putin looking back at Peter the Great.

 

[Pickman's model]

Theocracy is inherently mystical and inherently a rejection of modernism (loosely defined as rationalism, democratic values and small-l liberalism).You have a point that the caliphate is not strictly speaking blood and soil but it has a similar function to Putin looking back at Peter the Great.

The caliphate? Wtf? When did aq declare a caliphate?

 

[Rimbaud]

The caliphate? Wtf? When did aq declare a caliphate?

They didn't but that is their stated goal. You didn't know this?

 

[Pickman's model]

They didn't but that is their stated goal. You didn't know this?

yeh I know that. Do you think that going on about aq then introducing daesh and then bringing in 'the caliphate' is really a good debating style? Daesh did declare a caliphate. For aq it is a goal. Two different conceptions of the caliphate, one declared and the other an aspiration, exist. It's a vague and ill-defined way, perhaps a mystic way, to discuss things

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think a theocracy is inherently mystic. I'd like to see your working on that one. It is inherently spiritual or religious, but need not aim at either union with a deity nor be ill-defined and vague in religious terms. But for me this nm of which you speak isn't a useful or illuminating concept, I feel it obscures more than it explains

 

[Rimbaud]

I don't think a theocracy is inherently mystic. I'd like to see your working on that one. It is inherently spiritual or religious, but need not aim at either union with a deity nor be ill-defined and vague in religious terms. But for me this nm of which you speak isn't a useful or illuminating concept, I feel it obscures more than it explains

It's a term which describes a kind of revolt against the modern world (against democracy, liberalism, rationalism) so is useful to this end. Obviously any broad term to categorise a range of political phenomena occurring in different cultural contexts (I would include American Christian Nationalism as a similar manifestation) will be imperfect, but refusing to categorise anything blocks the ability to recognise trends. Nazism, Fascism and Falangism were distinct movements with significant differences but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't look at why the 1930s gave rise to these kinds of anti-democratic movements and dwelling pedantically on their differences blocks any possibility of understanding of why there is a global pushback on democratic/liberal values and why authoritarianism is on the rise.

 

[Rimbaud]

yeh I know that. Do you think that going on about aq then introducing daesh and then bringing in 'the caliphate' is really a good debating style? Daesh did declare a caliphate. For aq it is a goal. Two different conceptions of the caliphate, one declared and the other an aspiration, exist. It's a vague and ill-defined way, perhaps a mystic way, to discuss things

My comparison was that they look back to reviving the golden age of medieval caliphates like the Umayyad Caliphate, similar to how Putin looks back to reviving the lost greatness of imperial Russia symbolised at its pinnacle by Peter the Great.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's a term which describes a kind of revolt against the modern world (against democracy, liberalism, rationalism) so is useful to this end. Obviously any broad term to categorise a range of political phenomena occurring in different cultural contexts (I would include American Christian Nationalism as a similar manifestation) will be imperfect, but refusing to categorise anything blocks the ability to recognise trends. Nazism, Fascism and Falangism were distinct movements with significant differences but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't look at why the 1930s gave rise to these kinds of anti-democratic movements and dwelling pedantically on their differences blocks any possibility of understanding of why there is a global pushback on democratic/liberal values and why authoritarianism is on the rise.

If you're looking to the 1930s you're already looking to the wrong place, with Italian fascism for example taking shape rather earlier than that, with national socialism too building on trends developing even before the first world war and so on.

Any term which seeks to describe the very disparate rejections of modernity under one umbrella, which lumps aq and putin's Russia together, is for me useless. Rejecting the enlightenment? It's eurocentric bollocks. It's clear to any student of American history that the United States emerged from colonies which were largely formed on Christianity, and protestant Christianity at that. It's no surprise to me at least that Christian identity movements, American Christian nationalism, festers there - it is simply a continuation of the pre-enlightenment way in which political views were expressed in religious terms.

History is not and never has been a progression toward a better future. Gains are made but need to be defended if they're not to be washed away as sand castles are by the sea. The enlightenment, now near three hundred years ago, is not something which can really be defended, it's dead and buried in the grave. Would you defend it? Can you defend it? For me there's a political agenda behind the use of the nm term, that 'we' are superior to 'they'. It's used by Dina Khapaeva as you say, as a shorthand for anti-western, anti-democratic, far-right views. We all know the pejorative meaning of medieval in current discourse. So it's 'they' are bad, 'we' are good. It privileges a notion of Europe of the last several centuries against the barbarians in eurasia and the Middle East. I think it says rather more about proponents of the term than it dies those it seeks to describe.

There is perhaps a cyclical fashion in which reason is privileged over irrationality. But humans are made of two halves, the rational and the irrational. 'We' are always rational - 'they' are not. No attempt is made to marry the two. Take magic for example. If rationality were superior then it would have disappeared decades if not centuries ago. Yet magical texts, be they grimoires, books on the golden dawn, on crowley, gurdjieff, osho, can not only be found in general bookshops across the UK but are often issued by university presses like Oxford's or the state University of new York. Many posters here rail against 'woo' yet London alone supports at least three bookshops dedicated to the sale of magical and occult texts. Belief in formerly outre notions is commonplace Just to continue this a little further, ideas which would have been niche in the nineteenth century are increasingly mainstream now. Any victory rationality and the enlightenment enjoyed was fleeting.

But in conclusion to return to the classification of people 'we' don't like as nm offers perhaps a glimmer of hope that perhaps in the future there might be a neo-enlightenment which might finally offer a place for both rationality and irrationality

 

[The39thStep]

Whilst I'm not sure Al Qaeda's neo-medievalist millenarianism had either exit polls or overseas voting here's some data from the Russian elections concerning Russian voters abroad.

Not sure I fully understand the table below however if I have it right then Davankov the candidate of the New People Party is on the left of the table Putin next on the right, couple of rows to the right is Slutsky from the ultranationalist LDPR and Haritonov (Kharitonov) from the Russian Communist Party.

From my reading, 59% said they had voted for Putin in Athens, 38% in Rome, 31% in Bonn, 23% in Brussels, 20% in Geneva, 14% in Zagreb.

Outside of Europe: 25% in Montreal16-19% in three locations in Israel, ,15% in New York, 15% Sydney,

Interesting to note that re previous discussion kebabking that Davankov got 40% and over in the Israel locations . Davankov initially cautioned that the war would bring sanctions and would have economic consequences but didn't oppose the war and is now for a peace settlement.

BTW The blurb says the exit polls were conducted by 'We are free people and independent activists from Russia, living in Europe, Great Britain, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other parts of the planet.'

Голосуй за рубежом!

Результаты экзит-поллов голосования за рубежом на выборах Президента РФ 17 марта 2024 г.

voteabroad.info

 

[Pickman's model]

My comparison was that they look back to reviving the golden age of medieval caliphates like the Umayyad Caliphate, similar to how Putin looks back to reviving the lost greatness of imperial Russia symbolised at its pinnacle by Peter the Great.

Say what you like about Peter the Great but you'll have a tough time arguing he was a medieval monarch.

 

[discokermit]

Whilst I'm not sure Al Qaeda's neo-medievalist millenarianism had either exit polls or overseas voting here's some data from the Russian elections concerning Russian voters abroad.

Not sure I fully understand the table below however if I have it right then Davankov the candidate of the New People Party is on the left of the table Putin next on the right, couple of rows to the right is Slutsky from the ultranationalist LDPR and Haritonov (Kharitonov) from the Russian Communist Party.

From my reading, 59% said they had voted for Putin in Athens, 38% in Rome, 31% in Bonn, 23% in Brussels, 20% in Geneva, 14% in Zagreb.

Outside of Europe: 25% in Montreal16-19% in three locations in Israel, ,15% in New York, 15% Sydney,

Interesting to note that re previous discussion kebabking that Davankov got 40% and over in the Israel locations . Davankov initially cautioned that the war would bring sanctions and would have economic consequences but didn't oppose the war and is now for a peace settlement.

BTW The blurb says the exit polls were conducted by 'We are free people and independent activists from Russia, living in Europe, Great Britain, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other parts of the planet.'

Голосуй за рубежом!

Результаты экзит-поллов голосования за рубежом на выборах Президента РФ 17 марта 2024 г.

voteabroad.info

voting for putin can get you the sack in the uk,

 

[editor]

voting for putin can get you the sack in the uk,

To be honest if I had someone who was working for me who was posting pro-invasion propaganda in support of a right-wing war criminal with near fascist tendencies, I'd kick her out too.