Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[The39thStep]

Needs vrs wants.

I’m not a military expert however, and to be honest I might be best off asking on the Ukraine threads where they tend to assemble , but what equipment / tactics do the Israelis need to flatten Gaza and route out Hamas?

 

[existentialist]

I’m not a military expert however, and to be honest I might be best off asking on the Ukraine threads where they tend to assemble , but what equipment / tactics do the Israelis need to flatten Gaza and route out Hamas?

No, you're wrong.

It's not best off asking on the Ukraine threads.

 

[planetgeli]

I’m not a military expert however, and to be honest I might be best off asking on the Ukraine threads where they tend to assemble , but what equipment / tactics do the Israelis need to flatten Gaza and route out Hamas?

Bows and arrows would probably do by now. But this is all a reaction to Biden saying "we will never let Israel run out of military assets" (has he ever said this for Ukraine? No? Oh there appears to be a pecking order)

 

[Pickman's model]

Bows and arrows would probably do by now. But this is all a reaction to Biden saying "we will never let Israel run out of military assets" (has he ever said this for Ukraine? No? Oh there appears to be a pecking order)

There always is

 

[The39thStep]

No, you're wrong.

It's not best off asking on the Ukraine threads.

Yeh , you are right tbh . However surely we can learn something about the bombing of civilian targets , by Russia, from that thread and the routing out of sympathisers ?

 

[WouldBe]

View attachment 394207
i think the journalists rate themselves too highly if they think press coverage will save kherson

If the printed their crap on Kevlar it might help.

 

[dilute micro]

And meanwhile, far to the north, Russia got wrecked again in Avdiivka.

 

[brogdale]

Yeh , you are right tbh . However surely we can learn something about the bombing of civilian targets , by Russia, from that thread and the routing out of sympathisers ?

One snippet...

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Yeh , you are right tbh . However surely we can learn something about the bombing of civilian targets , by Russia, from that thread and the routing out of sympathisers ?

I think they were quite keen on thermobaric weapons.

 

[RedRedRose]

Russian counter-counter-offensive not doing so well. Today it was 900+ dead, 40 odd tanks and APC's. Day before was 800 dead and 90 APC's destroyed. Russia might be hoping the world is distracted with the Middle East and trying to go on the offensive. Surely, they can't sustain loses of this magnitude for long.

 

[ska invita]

Russian counter-counter-offensive not doing so well. Today it was 900+ dead, 40 odd tanks and APC's. Day before was 800 dead and 90 APC's destroyed. Russia might be hoping the world is distracted with the Middle East and trying to go on the offensive. Surely, they can't sustain loses of this magnitude for long.

have you a link/source for that please

 

[existentialist]

Russian counter-counter-offensive not doing so well. Today it was 900+ dead, 40 odd tanks and APC's. Day before was 800 dead and 90 APC's destroyed. Russia might be hoping the world is distracted with the Middle East and trying to go on the offensive. Surely, they can't sustain loses of this magnitude for long.

They do seem to have been progressively degraded throughout the war. Formerly "elite" battalions seem now to be bulked out by inexperienced conscripts, the more experienced personnel often having been squandered in futile and pointless assaults, and the losses in materiel, overall, are significant - otherwise, Russia wouldn't be trying to field ancient vehicles and weaponry, as they clearly are.

Added to which, it's the Russian presidential elections in March 2024, and it is likely that Putin is not going to want to fan the flames of dissent with further rounds of overt mobilisation, which will exacerbate the manpower shortage.

We don't know just how costly to Ukraine these tremendous, though unsuccessful, assaults are becoming, but the picture - often supposedly powerful units retreating in disarray following their assault, only to attempt a further counterattack - would suggest that Russia is probably taking disproportionate levels of casualties in comparison to the Ukrainians.

While there is evidently quite a lot of learning and adaptation going on at the lower levels, it seems as if Russian military doctrine remains unchanged at the top, and completely fails to take into account the limitations they are increasingly operating under.

Add to that the attrition of Russian air defence kit (S400 batteries being attacked, and losses of rare and hard-to-replace electronic warfare equipment), and I'd say the picture is looking increasingly unpromising for them. Which is not to say that Ukraine has got it in the bag, but I imagine that, if Putin still had hair, he'd be pulling it out in handfuls...unless he's ignorant of the picture on the ground, which is also possible.

 

[teuchter]

If Putin's current intention is to maintain the currently occupied territory and freeze the frontline where it is now, then I don't see that he would necessarily be tearing his hair out because they seem to be managing to do this at the moment.

The speculation that the Russian military is about to become so degraded that they can't hold the current position has been going on for months, and yet there's been no evidence of this actually happening.

 

[Pickman's model]

They do seem to have been progressively degraded throughout the war. Formerly "elite" battalions seem now to be bulked out by inexperienced conscripts, the more experienced personnel often having been squandered in futile and pointless assaults, and the losses in materiel, overall, are significant - otherwise, Russia wouldn't be trying to field ancient vehicles and weaponry, as they clearly are.

Added to which, it's the Russian presidential elections in March 2024, and it is likely that Putin is not going to want to fan the flames of dissent with further rounds of overt mobilisation, which will exacerbate the manpower shortage.

We don't know just how costly to Ukraine these tremendous, though unsuccessful, assaults are becoming, but the picture - often supposedly powerful units retreating in disarray following their assault, only to attempt a further counterattack - would suggest that Russia is probably taking disproportionate levels of casualties in comparison to the Ukrainians.

While there is evidently quite a lot of learning and adaptation going on at the lower levels, it seems as if Russian military doctrine remains unchanged at the top, and completely fails to take into account the limitations they are increasingly operating under.

Add to that the attrition of Russian air defence kit (S400 batteries being attacked, and losses of rare and hard-to-replace electronic warfare equipment), and I'd say the picture is looking increasingly unpromising for them. Which is not to say that Ukraine has got it in the bag, but I imagine that, if Putin still had hair, he'd be pulling it out in handfuls...unless he's ignorant of the picture on the ground, which is also possible.

i've been fielding enquiries from moscow at my electoral consultancy recently, and while i can't go into details don't be surprised if the russian election breaks down 56-44 in favour of putin

 

[Artaxerxes]

 

[dilute micro]

If Putin's current intention is to maintain the currently occupied territory and freeze the frontline where it is now, then I don't see that he would necessarily be tearing his hair out because they seem to be managing to do this at the moment.

The speculation that the Russian military is about to become so degraded that they can't hold the current position has been going on for months, and yet there's been no evidence of this actually happening.

For one thing, the Russians are not holding the current position (for the sake of your point). The Ukrainians are advancing, albeit slowly. The Russians are having to relocate units from one part of the line to another part. That's the first evidence of degradation. That's because some units no longer exist or have lost so many members to be effective.

 

[RedRedRose]

have you a link/source for that please

Any of the daily update YouTube videos will tell you the same; Russians tried to close the salient near Avdiivka and this was countered by Ukraine.

 

[existentialist]

If Putin's current intention is to maintain the currently occupied territory and freeze the frontline where it is now, then I don't see that he would necessarily be tearing his hair out because they seem to be managing to do this at the moment.

The speculation that the Russian military is about to become so degraded that they can't hold the current position has been going on for months, and yet there's been no evidence of this actually happening.

Except that if that was Putin's intention, what was the major (and catastrophic) attack at Avdi'ivka the day before yesterday about?

 

[existentialist]

i've been fielding enquiries from moscow at my electoral consultancy recently, and while i can't go into details don't be surprised if the russian election breaks down 56-44 in favour of putin

Hmm. I was expecting the usual 102% of the vote.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hmm. I was expecting the usual 102% of the vote.

yes, this is a common misconception - authoritarian leaders think they will be bolstered if they arrange for a massive majority, whereas (and it is something many people find difficult to credit) a much narrower win in fact makes them stronger and appear more legitimate. traditionally voting consultancies have encouraged authoritarians in their delusion but this is a mistake - no one at the moment really believes vladimir putin, for example, won the last election. but by fixing a much narrower but still solid majority many russians will be persuaded of the accuracy of the result and thus be more likely to accept him as president.

 

[editor]

Apparently even a soldier's funeral counts as a military target for Russia. Apparently at least one living soldier was also present, along with a 6-year-old boy who could potentially have grown up to be a soldier

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said every household was affected in the village: "From every family, from every household, there were people present". Interfax Ukraine reported that the funeral was for a Ukrainian soldier. His widow, son - also a soldier - and daughter-in-law were among those killed, the outlet quoted local prosecutor Dmytro Chubenko as saying.

Russian airstrike kills 51 at a funeral in Ukraine

The attack in the Kharkiv region is described as one of the area's "bloodiest crimes".

www.bbc.com

Barbaric scum.

 

[existentialist]

Apparently even a soldier's funeral counts as a military target for Russia. Apparently at least one living soldier was also present, along with a 6-year-old boy who could potentially have grown up to be a soldier

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said every household was affected in the village: "From every family, from every household, there were people present". Interfax Ukraine reported that the funeral was for a Ukrainian soldier. His widow, son - also a soldier - and daughter-in-law were among those killed, the outlet quoted local prosecutor Dmytro Chubenko as saying.

Russian airstrike kills 51 at a funeral in Ukraine

The attack in the Kharkiv region is described as one of the area's "bloodiest crimes".

www.bbc.com

Especially as it now emerges that local informants told the Russians where to strike. The SBU have arrested two men.

Treason, betrayal and grief in Ukrainian village devastated by Russian missile strike

Two brothers who grew up in village of Hroza have been charged with treason in wake of attack that killed 59 people

www.theguardian.com

 

[teuchter]

Except that if that was Putin's intention, what was the major (and catastrophic) attack at Avdi'ivka the day before yesterday about?

This is what ISW reckons - see last two sentences:

These tactical-level adaptations and successes, however, are unlikely to translate into wider operational and strategic gains for Russian forces. Geolocated footage shows that Russian gains around Avdiivka are concentrated to the southwest of Avdiivka, and Russian forces have not completed an operational encirclement of the settlement and will likely struggle to do so if that is their intent. Avdiivka is also a notoriously well-fortified and defended Ukrainian stronghold, which will likely complicate Russian forces’ ability to closely approach or fully capture the settlement. Russian forces additionally already control segments of the critical N20 Donetsk City-Kostyantynivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk highway and other routes that run near Avdiivka, so the hypothetical capture of Avdiivka will not open new routes of advance to the rest of Donetsk Oblast. As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces likely intend attacks in the Avdiivka area to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from redeploying to other areas of the front. However, Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixing operation, and they are unlikely to unduly commit Ukrainian manpower to this axis.[11]

Institute for the Study of War

Ongoing localized Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka likely demonstrate the ability of Russian forces to learn and apply tactical battlefield lessons in Ukraine. Russian forces launched localized attacks towards Avdiivka after intensive artillery

www.understandingwar.org

 

[teuchter]

For one thing, the Russians are not holding the current position (for the sake of your point). The Ukrainians are advancing, albeit slowly.

When I look at the maps (which I have been doing for the last couple of months) what I see is very small Ukrainian advances in some places mixed in with very small Russian advances elsewhere. This doesn't match what the impression you might get from just reading this thread - you might get the impression that Ukraine is making slow but steady progress overall, but I just don't see that, and I think it is wishful thinking. As I've said before I'll be very pleased to be proven wrong by a sudden and significant breakthrough.

 

[Pickman's model]

When I look at the maps (which I have been doing for the last couple of months) what I see is very small Ukrainian advances in some places mixed in with very small Russian advances elsewhere. This doesn't match what the impression you might get from just reading this thread - you might get the impression that Ukraine is making slow but steady progress overall, but I just don't see that, and I think it is wishful thinking. As I've said before I'll be very pleased to be proven wrong by a sudden and significant breakthrough.

yes but in which direction?

 

[dilute micro]

When I look at the maps (which I have been doing for the last couple of months) what I see is very small Ukrainian advances in some places mixed in with very small Russian advances elsewhere. This doesn't match what the impression you might get from just reading this thread - you might get the impression that Ukraine is making slow but steady progress overall, but I just don't see that, and I think it is wishful thinking. As I've said before I'll be very pleased to be proven wrong by a sudden and significant breakthrough.

It doesn't matter what you see. You're not genuinely interested in what Ukraine is doing. Instead, you're good for making an occasional display of feigned concern for how the war is going for them.

 

[Pickman's model]

It doesn't matter what you see. You're not genuinely interested in what Ukraine is doing. Instead, you're good for making an occasional display of feigned concern for how the war is going for them.

He's good for nothing

 

[existentialist]

He's good for nothing

He's good for a laugh. You just have to squint a bit.

 

[teuchter]

It doesn't matter what you see. You're not genuinely interested in what Ukraine is doing. Instead, you're good for making an occasional display of feigned concern for how the war is going for them.

Maybe this NYT analysis is just feigning concern too, but it seems to agree with me that Ukraine's gains in territory are tiny and it actually reckons that Russia has made a net gain this year.

Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One. (Published 2023)

Although both sides have launched ambitious offensives, the front line has barely shifted. After 18 months of war, a breakthrough looks more difficult than ever.

www.nytimes.com

 

[The39thStep]

When I look at the maps (which I have been doing for the last couple of months) what I see is very small Ukrainian advances in some places mixed in with very small Russian advances elsewhere. This doesn't match what the impression you might get from just reading this thread - you might get the impression that Ukraine is making slow but steady progress overall, but I just don't see that, and I think it is wishful thinking. As I've said before I'll be very pleased to be proven wrong by a sudden and significant breakthrough.

The counter offensive is slightly behind schedule