Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Chz]

how do you know that?

Ouija board.

 

[The39thStep]

how do you know that?

Who else would they bring in to mediate and try and talk them through war tactics?

 

[Artaxerxes]

It’s an honour to have Mr Segal on the forum

 

[Chz]

For those who prefer to discuss the issue...

Sorry it's the FT, but you can get around the paywall if you try. I'll spoiler the more relevant bits.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

Spoiler: Nato’s dilemma: what to do about Ukraine’s bid to join?

Benjamin Tallis, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, says that such commitments have an additional benefit for the US. “The US is still blocking [Ukraine’s membership], and blocking for not wholly unfair if still blinkered reasons: they want Europeans to take more care of their own defence and to not simply add another European country that is dependent on them,” says Tallis.

But some countries are nervous about the potential cost of the commitments, tying up tens of billions of taxpayer money at a time of rising inflationary and budgetary pressures.

“The concern is that the more we talk about security guarantees, or assurances, or commitments, the more it becomes obvious that this is really expensive,” says one senior European official who speaks regularly to Zelenskyy’s cabinet about security issues.

The choice for Nato members, the official adds, is: “either the Israel model, which is them [Ukraine] being able to defend themselves, which is expensive in terms of investment, or the Nato model of us defending them if they need it, which is expensive in terms of the responsibility we take on.”

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

Spoiler: Clouds gather over support for Ukraine

During the second world war, the US sent significant amounts of tanks, planes, trucks and other war supplies to the Soviet Union to help its fight against Nazi invaders. Joseph Stalin certainly wished for more. But in his wartime correspondence with Franklin Roosevelt, I find no evidence that the US president told the Soviet dictator: “You know, we’re not Woolworths.”

However, that is how Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, put things this week when he said his response to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s requests for more military aid was: “You know, we’re not Amazon.”

~

The first is the European Commission’s latest Eurobarometer poll.

In this survey, conducted last month, we see that, taken as a whole, public opinion in the 27-nation EU is in favour of humanitarian support for Ukraine (88 to 9 per cent), sanctions on Russia (72 to 22 per cent), paying for military aid for Kyiv (64 to 31 per cent) and inviting Ukraine to join the EU (64 to 28 per cent).

Dig a little deeper, though, and we come across evidence of less solid support for Ukraine in seven countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary and Slovakia. Enthusiasm for Ukraine is most tepid in the areas of financing the purchase and supply of military equipment for Kyiv, and making Ukraine an EU candidate member.

~

All in all, I see quite a few problems building up for Nato and the EU as they try to maintain a united front of support for Ukraine.

US politics is one concern. But so, too, are the evolving political conditions of parts of central and eastern Europe.

Not sure if there's a lot of support for Ukraine in NATO.

 

[Ming]

Have you ever imagined what it would be like to meet up for a drink with Urban's military hardware and acronym enthusiasts?

FUBAR.

 

[Ming]

AFAIK, that's the codename for the exact shade of lilac in which the boathouse at Hereford is painted

'Vat boathouse?'

 

[Dogsauce]

I reckon it is probably unlikely that the US has a stock of chemical weapons for the simple reason of why would it need them? They're the poor man's nuke, the toy of despots and crackpots and almost as dangerous to the user as the target. The US has nukes and things like FAE which are damn near nuclear levels of destruction. It has enough conventional firepower at its disposal to flatten any other country to the ground. It's nothing to do with morals or principles it just doesn't need such things.

The only reason the UK doesn’t have chemical and biological weapons is because we got the bomb. There was no moral argument presented against having them, just that they became obsolete and the cost of maintaining them pointless. I once read (tangentially related to some work I was doing) the cabinet papers/meeting notes where this was decided, they’re in the archives at Kew. I don’t think it will be any different in the US. However, If they ever need them I’m sure they could put something together pretty quick, because the knowledge isn‘t destroyed, and probably never will be as it may always be needed to counter others who do have them.

 

[existentialist]

'Vat boathouse?'

I could tell you, but I'd have to kill you afterwards.

 

[Ming]

I could tell you, but I'd have to kill you afterwards.

I heard it was painted in DPM and no one could find it.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Not trusting British spec ops to be able to find a boathouse tbh

 

[SpookyFrank]

Not trusting British spec ops to be able to find a boathouse tbh

Depends if the boathouse has a bar in it.

 

[strung out]

The Kerch Bridge into Crimea from Russia appears to have been hit again.

 

[TopCat]

The last time they did this a huge wave of drone and missile attacks came down on them.

 

[StoneRoad]

The Ukrainians have "better" air defense systems now, and lots of practice at clobbering drones / missiles in the past six months ...

 

[Flavour]

The last time they did this a huge wave of drone and missile attacks came down on them.

as opposed to the lack of drone and missile attacks that there has been in recent weeks

 

[StoneRoad]

Now wondering if & when the Crimea bridges / causeways - not just Kerch - will be in range of missiles such as Storm Shadow / scalp ...

 

[Flavour]

it is the US's fault that the bridge even existed in the first place to be honest

 

[TopCat]

as opposed to the lack of drone and missile attacks that there has been in recent weeks

Recent weeks attacks were minor compared to what I mentioned.

 

[TopCat]

it is the US's fault that the bridge even existed in the first place to be honest

Have you run out of coherent thought? Just sarcasm left? I’m sure you can do better.

 

[Rob Ray]

The last time they did this a huge wave of drone and missile attacks came down on them.

Yes perhaps they should stick to waging war in ways that don't annoy the Russians.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Yes perhaps they should stick to waging war in ways that don't annoy the Russians.

Those old seventy year olds should just give up

 

[gosub]

Russia halts deal allowing Ukraine to ship grain in blow to global food security

A Kremlin spokesman said the arrangements would continue only after Russian demands are met with regards to allowing food to leave via the Black Sea.

www.upday.com

 

[TopCat]

Now wondering if & when the Crimea bridges / causeways - not just Kerch - will be in range of missiles such as Storm Shadow / scalp ...

Are they not within range already?

 

[TopCat]

Yes perhaps they should stick to waging war in ways that don't annoy the Russians.

Add you to the no coherent response but sarcasm with Flavour

 

[Rob Ray]

Add you to the no coherent response but sarcasm with Flavour

Mate you made an absolutely absurd comment, sarcasm is entirely justified.

 

[existentialist]

Add you to the no coherent response but sarcasm with Flavour

Did you ever stop to wonder why there is such a preponderance of "no coherent response but sarcasm" responses to your posts? And perhaps then go on to muse what might the the common factor in all of those...?

No, of course you didn't.

 

[TopCat]

Russia halts deal allowing Ukraine to ship grain in blow to global food security

A Kremlin spokesman said the arrangements would continue only after Russian demands are met with regards to allowing food to leave via the Black Sea.

www.upday.com

They allege the previous agreement to let their (Russian) fertiliser and grain out was not kept to.

It’s hard to keep up with the rounds of sanctions and exemptions.

 

[Flavour]

the implication of your post, TopCat , which mentioned the increased bombing of Ukraine in response to the previous UKR attack on the bridge, was that this attack, too, would likely increase bombing of Ukraine. This implies that you think the UKR government should refrain from attacking the invader so as to avoid the increased risk of retaliatory attacks on UKR civilian targets which would be, somehow, to be at-least-partially-blamed on the UKR government for having aroused the ire of the invader and provoked it into increased bombing of civilian targets. blaming the woman for being raped, as usual.

 

[Fez909]

They allege the previous agreement to let their (Russian) fertiliser and grain out was not kept to.

It’s hard to keep up with the rounds of sanctions and exemptions.

The link you quoted says [Russian] grain exports are at record levels. This ALJ article gives more detail:

Why did Russia terminate the deal?

Russia had been saying for months that conditions for the deal’s extension had not been fulfilled.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said last week that he wanted an end to sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank.

Other demands include the resumption of supplies of agricultural machinery and parts, lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance, the resumption of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline and the unblocking of assets and the accounts of Russian companies involved in food and fertiliser exports.

“The Black Sea agreements ceased to be valid today,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “Unfortunately, the part of these Black Sea agreements concerning Russia has not been implemented so far, so [their] effect is terminated,” he added.

source

 

[TopCat]

the implication of your post, TopCat , which mentioned the increased bombing of Ukraine in response to the previous UKR attack on the bridge, was that this attack, too, would likely increase bombing of Ukraine. This implies that you think the UKR government should refrain from attacking the invader so as to avoid the increased risk of retaliatory attacks on UKR civilian targets which would be, somehow, to be at-least-partially-blamed on the UKR government for having aroused the ire of the invader and provoked it into increased bombing of civilian targets. blaming the woman for being raped, as usual.

Blaming the woman for being raped? This is a new low even for you.