Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[ska invita]

Regardless, the quickest way for this war to end is for Russia to be convinced to leave, whether through force or negotiation (and good luck to anyone who can convince them to leave voluntarily without significant shedding of Russian blood).

How is it quickest?
Surely the one thing you can say about inflicting a total military defeat on Russia is it's the longest way, you're describing a massive escalation of the war to reach such a result. There are hawks calling for just that instead of this ongoing stand off situation.

 

[belboid]

Always intrigued by people who support Ukraine being given the tools to evict a brutal, imperialist regime from their territory getting called warmongers by the likes of you.

For what it's worth, cluster munitions are fucking awful, unbearably so, but the decision appears to have been driven by the fact that without them, Ukraine would have been in danger of running out of artillery ammunition to sustain the offensive for as long as they need to. Ukraine and USA have presumably calculated that the provision of these types of munitions are likely to save more Ukrainian lives now than hypothetical lives later once the war has finished.

Regardless, the quickest way for this war to end is for Russia to be convinced to leave, whether through force or negotiation (and good luck to anyone who can convince them to leave voluntarily without significant shedding of Russian blood).

Sunak is hardly a peace living hippy. But even he (albeit rather weakly and pathetically) can say some things are a step too far. In supporting their use you are supporting a further escalation of violence. ‘But they did it first’ is a playground rationalisation. It completely undermines opposition to their use in the future. Not to mention you could make exactly the same rationalisations for chemical weapons.

 

[pug]

american cluster munitions are useful for advancing whereas russian ones better for retreat. Theres reasons why they want these and it's not really because they're running out of shells or used up all the Russian made cluster bombs its more about them being a useful weapon for their offensive.

 

[strung out]

How is it quickest?
Surely the one thing you can say about inflicting a total military defeat on Russia is it's the longest way, you're describing a massive escalation of the war to reach such a result. There are hawks calling for just that instead of this ongoing stand off situation.

Ok, you're right, the quickest way for the war to be ended is for Ukraine to surrender. The second quickest way is for Russia to be convinced to leave.

 

[gosub]

Ok, you're right, the quickest way for the war to be ended is for Ukraine to surrender. The second quickest way is for Russia to be convinced to leave.

I don't know. If it went nuclear. Everything would be over in about ten minutes

 

[strung out]

I don't know. If it went nuclear. Everything would be over in about ten minutes

Good point

 

[strung out]

Sunak is hardly a peace living hippy. But even he (albeit rather weakly and pathetically) can say some things are a step too far. In supporting their use you are supporting a further escalation of violence. ‘But they did it first’ is a playground rationalisation. It completely undermines opposition to their use in the future. Not to mention you could make exactly the same rationalisations for chemical weapons.

Sunak is saying what he's saying because he can't be seen to be acting in opposition to a treaty that the UK is a signatory to.

How can it be an escalation when both sides have been using cluster munitions since the start of the war?

I don't think anyone at all on here is cheering the use of them, but those who do support their supply to Ukraine are doing it from a position of causing least harm to Ukrainians by defeating Russia sooner. To call those people warmongers diminishes you.

 

[hash tag]

For fear of stating the bleeding obvious
( All war is bad imho )

What are cluster bombs and why are they controversial?

Biden administration confirms it has approved providing Ukraine with weapons opposed by human rights groups

www.theguardian.com

 

[Kaka Tim]

Compared to most actions which are described as a military offensive?

Often involve many weeks of attritional grind before a breakthrough (el alamein, normandy, stalingrad) . Nobody knows how well or badly the ukranian offensive is going until its cumilated . It may be it peters out in three weeks time at great cost in lives (no doubt accompanied by barely disguised gloating from some posters on this forum) maybe the entire Russian front collapses tomorrow. Maybe they will cumiliate but the Russians are so exhausted they are unable to go on the offensive and get overrun in short order when the Urkanians have another go in october.
Today Urkaine are trumpeting some "signficent tactical advances" near bahkmut - very possibly this is pretty insignificent but its being hyped cos they need some positive noise. Or maybe they are about to cut off a large russian force who then surrenders and the Russian military high command decide its time to give vlad some flying lessons.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ukraine surrendering would not end the death and destruction though - there would very likely be an ongoing insugency (well supported form outside Ukraine by non state actors/private individuals if not actual states) and a brutal occupation. Iraq was conqured in weeks. The insurgency went on for years at greater cost in lives than the actual "proper" war bit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Ukraine surrendering would not end the death and destruction though - there would very likely be an ongoing insugency (well supported form outside Ukraine by non state actors/private individuals if not actual states) and a brutal occupation. Iraq was conqured in weeks. The insurgency went on for years at greater cost in lives than the actual "proper" war bit.

All the fighting could cease now and the death and destruction would still continue for years as people take their own lives or die from wounds or ailments caused by the fighting, not to mention the carnage to be caused by cluster bombs and mines and so on

 

[emanymton]

Sunak is hardly a peace living hippy. But even he (albeit rather weakly and pathetically) can say some things are a step too far. In supporting their use you are supporting a further escalation of violence. ‘But they did it first’ is a playground rationalisation. It completely undermines opposition to their use in the future. Not to mention you could make exactly the same rationalisations for chemical weapons.

Your argument might work if it was about someone punching someone in the face then running off. It doesn't work quite so well if they keep punching them in the face while their mates burn their house down rape their mother and kidnap their children.

 

[Spymaster]

Sunak is hardly a peace living hippy. But even he (albeit rather weakly and pathetically) can say some things are a step too far. In supporting their use you are supporting a further escalation of violence. ‘But they did it first’ is a playground rationalisation. It completely undermines opposition to their use in the future. Not to mention you could make exactly the same rationalisations for chemical weapons.

Oh, Bellend

 

[belboid]

Your argument might work if it was about someone punching someone in the face then running off. It doesn't work quite so well if they keep punching them in the face while their mates burn their house down rape their mother and kidnap their children.

They’re not punching anyone in the face tho, are they? They’re using munitions that will continue to maim and destroy long after the war is over. Which is why even the Spanish government can give a more forceful denunciation of their use by Ukraine than the majority of urbanites.

What’s your red line? Chemical weapons? Nukes (if the russkies target that power station)?

 

[Chz]

They’re using munitions that will continue to maim and destroy long after the war is over.

Yes, they are. Have been since Day One of this nonsense that's now on Day 500. If Ukraine hadn't been using their large store of ex-Sov weapons, it might be different. But it isn't different, so there's no point in going on about it. At least the American ones have a dud rate of ~2.5% to clear up after. The old Soviet stuff is estimated to leave 30+% behind to clear up afterwards. The stuff that the Russians continue to use to this day. It's not as if not giving them the weapons will turn the Donbas into a happy fairy land clear of unexploded bombs forever more. The damage is there, it's done. The best way to prevent more damage is to end the war - and I admit there's a variety of opinions on the best way to do that, but I believe it's to help the Ukrainians push the Russians out of their country.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Russian cluster bomb graveyard.

 

[Spymaster]

They’re not punching anyone in the face tho, are they? They’re using munitions that will continue to maim and destroy long after the war is over. Which is why even the Spanish government can give a more forceful denunciation of their use by Ukraine than the majority of urbanites.

So your solution is to try to ensure that only Russia can use cluster bombs. Brilliant!

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, they are. Have been since Day One of this nonsense that's now on Day 500. If Ukraine hadn't been using their large store of ex-Sov weapons, it might be different. But it isn't different, so there's no point in going on about it. At least the American ones have a dud rate of ~2.5% to clear up after. The old Soviet stuff is estimated to leave 30+% behind to clear up afterwards. The stuff that the Russians continue to use to this day. It's not as if not giving them the weapons will turn the Donbas into a happy fairy land clear of unexploded bombs forever more. The damage is there, it's done. The best way to prevent more damage is to end the war - and I admit there's a variety of opinions on the best way to do that, but I believe it's to help the Ukrainians push the Russians out of their country.

Yes, Biden must level the playing field with these dastardly munitions

 

[emanymton]

They’re not punching anyone in the face tho, are they? They’re using munitions that will continue to maim and destroy long after the war is over. Which is why even the Spanish government can give a more forceful denunciation of their use by Ukraine than the majority of urbanites.

What’s your red line? Chemical weapons? Nukes (if the russkies target that power station)?

I'm not supplying, nor receiving weapons or deciding when and where to use them. What point would me deciding on my red lines service?

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Why the scare quotes around "offensive"?

I already answered that

 

[spitfire]

I'm not supplying, nor receiving weapons or deciding when and where to use them. What point works be deciding on my red lines service?

So you can be judged.

 

[belboid]

I'm not supplying, nor receiving weapons or deciding when and where to use them. What point works be deciding on my red lines service?

You could decide which weapons you’d oppose Ukraine using.

Would you make the same rationalisation for chemical weapons?

 

[The39thStep]

Ukraine’s minister of defense has announced several commitments about the use of cluster munitions, which should go a ways towards addressing the concerns raised in this thread:

Spoiler: Full text for those avoiding Twitter

We welcome the decision of the US to provide Ukraine with the new liberation weapons that will significantly help us to de-occupy our territories while saving the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers.Under Article 51 of the UN Charter Ukraine has a universal internationally recognised right to self-defence and thus we have been officially requesting these types of munitions for a long time.I would like to stress that in exercising our inalienable right to self-defence we will continue to strictly comply with all the international humanitarian conventions signed and ratified by Ukraine.It is important to note that the russian federation has been indiscriminately using cluster munitions from day 1 of the unprovoked large-scale aggression. In February-March 2022 Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city with over a million population, was relentlessly bombarded by russians cluster munitions. Our position is simple - we need to liberate our temporarily occupied territories and save the lives of our people. For this we need to inflict losses on the enemy - war criminals, rapists and looters - who are occupying our territories. The more losses we inflict on them the more lives of Ukrainian people we will be able to save. It is in our interest to save the lives of our soldiers. This is why we will continue to do this using all lethal weapons available to us. Regarding the cluster munitions, we have 5 key principles which we will abide by and which we have clearly communicated to all our partners, including the US. I have personally informed our US partners about these five principles in writing a long time ago. 1. Ukraine will use these munitions only for the de-occupation of our internationally recognised territories. These munitions will not be used on the officially recognized territory of russia.2. We will not be using cluster munitions in urban areas (cities) to avoid the risks for the civilian populations - these are our people, they are Ukrainians we have a duty to protect. Cluster munitions will be used only in the fields where there is a concentration of russian military. They will be used to break through the enemy defence lines with minimum risk for the lives of our soldiers. Saving the lives of our troops, even during extremely difficult offensive operations, remains our top priority. 3. Ukraine will keep a strict record of the use of these weapons and the local zones where they will be used.4. Based on these records, after the de-occupation of our territories and our victory these territories will be prioritised for the purposes of de-mining. This will enable us to eradicate the risk from the unexploded elements of cluster munitions. The Minister of Defence of Ukraine is by law acting as the Head of the national de-mining agency. In this capacity I will ensure the implementation of the relevant legal framework for the de-mining process after our victory. 5. We will report to our partners about the use of these munitions, and about their efficiency to ensure the appropriate standard of transparent reporting and control.

Renaming them liberation weapons, and being overseen by the US , whose record the last time their cluster bombs were used in a country they weren't at war with was Laos, is just taking the piss.

 

[Chz]

Turkey released the Azovstal commanders that were meant to be kept there until the end of the war. Russia is not pleased. Though given the dicking around they're doing over Sweden's NATO entry, it's a wonder that anyone ever trusts the Turkish government.

Zelenskiy brings Azovstal commanders back to Ukraine from Turkey

Russia denounced the release, which was a highly symbolic achievement on the 500th day of the Ukraine war, saying Ankara had promised under the exchange agreement to keep the men in Turkey.

www.reuters.com

 

[TopCat]

You could decide which weapons you’d oppose Ukraine using.

Would you make the same rationalisation for chemical weapons?

Hysterical apparently.

 

[Spymaster]

Renaming them liberation weapons, and being overseen by the US , whose record the last time their cluster bombs were used in a country they weren't at war with was Laos, is just taking the piss.

Massive difference between their offensive use in Laos and their defensive use in Ukraine to the extent that it's not a comparison worth making.

 

[Chz]

Massive difference between their offensive use in Laos and their defensive use in Ukraine to the extent that it's not a comparison worth making.

Agreed that comparisons to anything 50 years ago is unhelpful, particularly over a state using them on their own sovereign territory. But the "Liberation Weapons" bit is taking the piss a bit over weapons that over a hundred countries have agreed to ban.

 

[Spymaster]

Hysterical apparently.

It's a stupid position. Nobody has used chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, and are unlikely to do so. Only Russia has come close to suggesting it. The cluster bombs however have been used by both sides and are a current reality rather than a silly hypothetical to throw around on the internet.

 

[Spymaster]

But the "Liberation Weapons" bit is taking the piss a bit over weapons that over a hundred countries have agreed to ban.

Meh. It's just a phrase being used by the Minister of Defence of a country whose people are being raped and murdered by an invader. I think we can allow him a touch of hyperbole.

 

[Chz]

I think there's mild hyperbole and then there's mindless jingoism. And it's treading a very fine line. If I'm going to ignore TC for being over the top, I can at least be consistent about hating excession from the Ukrainian side when it's a statement for international media. I can totally understand it when it's for internal consumption, they are in a war for their very existence, but it does them no favours to be like that when plenty of countries are very hesitant over such things.