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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Biden confirms the intent is to be a stopgap:

Biden told Zakaria that the cluster munitions were being sent as a “transition period” until the US is able to produce more 155mm artillery.
“This is a war relating to munitions. And they’re running out of that ammunition, and we’re low on it,” Biden said. “And so, what I finally did, I took the recommendation of the Defense Department to – not permanently – but to allow for this transition period, while we get more 155 weapons, these shells, for the Ukrainians.”


 
Biden confirms the intent is to be a stopgap:

Biden told Zakaria that the cluster munitions were being sent as a “transition period” until the US is able to produce more 155mm artillery.
“This is a war relating to munitions. And they’re running out of that ammunition, and we’re low on it,” Biden said. “And so, what I finally did, I took the recommendation of the Defense Department to – not permanently – but to allow for this transition period, while we get more 155 weapons, these shells, for the Ukrainians.”


Cluster bombs for a bit, more artillery shells on their way.

This doesn’t really ring true. Once they give them cluster bombs they won’t stop.
 
What do you mean?
Just wondering how it works when you see a pro-Russian talking-point on the internet such as Ukrainian soldiers being "in their sixth decade". Do you know right away how often you're going to mention it, or do you just take the opportunities as they come? Also, is it important not to stray too far from the original wording?

(Four times so far, including one where they were in their seventh decade - I guess that probably was stretching it a bit.)
 
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Russia & Ukraine both saying the other side is planning an escalation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station.


Its only been a couple of weeks since the previous round of bullshit about this. Below is what I said last time. Which doesnt mean I'm really relaxed about this stuff - I dont believe the detail of either sides claims on these matters but the claims being made at all might be a sign of planned risky military action taking place not so far from the plant, which is obviously not a good thing.

Both sides have made all sorts of claims about the nuclear plant in the past, including going public with suggestions that provocations and incidents with radioactive implications were imminent.

It didnt happen that time and so our media is slightly more cautious when it comes to how to report on this stuff this time around.

I have a low degree of confidence about what will actually happen. I can only point to the past, and to the fact that accusations from both sides tend to intensify whenever military operations increase in the territory near to the plant. So I assume thats what triggers the propaganda, but this doesnt offer me many clues about what will actually happen. At a minimum I'd say its both sides getting their cover stories in order in the event that military actions in the area end up having consequences for the plant itself.
 
Just saw that and couldn’t help thinking how fucking sad it is when half of Urban appears to be more warmongery than Rishi bloody Sunak
15 likes for a 'Defence Intelligence' post that lauded Sunak and Wallace 'dancing on the tables' , the other week . Two days later after descending from the tables, Sunak announced that he would consider ignoring the public sector pay review results.
 
Just wondering how it works when you see a pro-Russian talking-point on the internet such as Ukrainian soldiers being "in their sixth decade". Do you know right away how often you're going to mention it, or do you just take the opportunities as they come? Also, is it important not to stray too far from the original wording?

(Four times so far, including one where they were in their seventh decade - I guess that probably was stretching it a bit.)
I was watching interviews with these old blokes. It suggests so many of the younger ones are dead. You ignore it why? Essential to keep morale up?
 
on the issue of age and state of Ukrainian soldiers, I read (cant find link now, it was a UK newspaper most likely) Ukraine started the war with around 160,000 personnel in standing army IIRC**. Its been some months now since the head of the US army said Ukraine has had 100,000 soldiers killed. Obviously on top of the 160k they've conscripted a lot of people - I dont know the numbers - but from that back of an envelope workings out it does sound like the Ukrainian professional army is massively ...'stretched' to put it mildly

Just wiki'd Russian army: "In terms of active-duty personnel, they are the world's fifth-largest military force, with 1.15 million and at least two million reserve personnel"

**Double checked the Ukrainian personnel numbers on wiki: "By February 2018, the Ukrainian armed forces were larger and better equipped than ever before, numbering 200,000 active-service military personnel and most of the volunteer soldiers of the territorial defence battalions have been integrated into the official Ukrainian army.[46]
Source, Carnegie something or other Ukraine’s Toughest Fight: The Challenge of Military Reform

Obviously accurate figures for the current situation are impossible to come by
 
Cluster bombs for a bit, more artillery shells on their way.

This doesn’t really ring true. Once they give them cluster bombs they won’t stop.
In a rare move for me, I tend to agree with you there TopCat.

Just saw that and couldn’t help thinking how fucking sad it is when half of Urban appears to be more warmongery than Rishi bloody Sunak
I don't doubt for a moment that if the UK hadn't decommissioned all of theirs, he'd have donated the lot. Sunak gets to virtue signal by way of the fact that he can't do anything else.
 
I was watching interviews with these old blokes. It suggests so many of the younger ones are dead. You ignore it why? Essential to keep morale up?
I haven't seen it in order to be able to ignore it. I suspect some of our media interests don't overlap.

The average age of soldiers is reported to have risen markedly on both sides since the start of the conflict. Russia scrapped all age limits over a year ago. But to imagine that either side is effectively running a Dad's Army reboot would be shamelessly wishful thinking, imo.
 
I think this whole cluster bomb story is an off-ramp for people who previously supported Ukraine. "giving them tanks and guns and nice simple bombs was fine, I was all for it back then! But now they're giving them cluster bombs you can count me out"

No dubt It will be used as such by some, do you think it was intended even in part as a way to ease public opinion in the west towards the classic American "lets get the fuck out (for god's sake think of the economy)" endgame?
 
Just saw that and couldn’t help thinking how fucking sad it is when half of Urban appears to be more warmongery than Rishi bloody Sunak
Always intrigued by people who support Ukraine being given the tools to evict a brutal, imperialist regime from their territory getting called warmongers by the likes of you.

For what it's worth, cluster munitions are fucking awful, unbearably so, but the decision appears to have been driven by the fact that without them, Ukraine would have been in danger of running out of artillery ammunition to sustain the offensive for as long as they need to. Ukraine and USA have presumably calculated that the provision of these types of munitions are likely to save more Ukrainian lives now than hypothetical lives later once the war has finished.

Regardless, the quickest way for this war to end is for Russia to be convinced to leave, whether through force or negotiation (and good luck to anyone who can convince them to leave voluntarily without significant shedding of Russian blood).
 
Ukraine’s minister of defense has announced several commitments about the use of cluster munitions, which should go a ways towards addressing the concerns raised in this thread:

We welcome the decision of the US to provide Ukraine with the new liberation weapons that will significantly help us to de-occupy our territories while saving the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers.Under Article 51 of the UN Charter Ukraine has a universal internationally recognised right to self-defence and thus we have been officially requesting these types of munitions for a long time.I would like to stress that in exercising our inalienable right to self-defence we will continue to strictly comply with all the international humanitarian conventions signed and ratified by Ukraine.It is important to note that the russian federation has been indiscriminately using cluster munitions from day 1 of the unprovoked large-scale aggression. In February-March 2022 Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city with over a million population, was relentlessly bombarded by russians cluster munitions. Our position is simple - we need to liberate our temporarily occupied territories and save the lives of our people. For this we need to inflict losses on the enemy - war criminals, rapists and looters - who are occupying our territories. The more losses we inflict on them the more lives of Ukrainian people we will be able to save. It is in our interest to save the lives of our soldiers. This is why we will continue to do this using all lethal weapons available to us. Regarding the cluster munitions, we have 5 key principles which we will abide by and which we have clearly communicated to all our partners, including the US. I have personally informed our US partners about these five principles in writing a long time ago. 1. Ukraine will use these munitions only for the de-occupation of our internationally recognised territories. These munitions will not be used on the officially recognized territory of russia.2. We will not be using cluster munitions in urban areas (cities) to avoid the risks for the civilian populations - these are our people, they are Ukrainians we have a duty to protect. Cluster munitions will be used only in the fields where there is a concentration of russian military. They will be used to break through the enemy defence lines with minimum risk for the lives of our soldiers. Saving the lives of our troops, even during extremely difficult offensive operations, remains our top priority. 3. Ukraine will keep a strict record of the use of these weapons and the local zones where they will be used.4. Based on these records, after the de-occupation of our territories and our victory these territories will be prioritised for the purposes of de-mining. This will enable us to eradicate the risk from the unexploded elements of cluster munitions. The Minister of Defence of Ukraine is by law acting as the Head of the national de-mining agency. In this capacity I will ensure the implementation of the relevant legal framework for the de-mining process after our victory. 5. We will report to our partners about the use of these munitions, and about their efficiency to ensure the appropriate standard of transparent reporting and control.
 
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