Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[tim]

Mmm. Not convinced by it at all.

We'd all feel let down if you were.

 

[TopCat]

Maiden News sort of gives the tone.

 

[Raheem]

Maiden News sort of gives the tone.

Isn't that a heavy metal fanzine?

 

[existentialist]

Mmm. Not convinced by it at all.

You surprise me

 

[existentialist]

No spare ammo for Grad rocket systems? Other reports indicate continuous firing of the same. The article seems to have a lot of wishful thinking. Dresses up inaction as somehow the right thing.

They might have the ammunition, but not to hand. Ukraine has been giving Russian logistics a serious working over.

 

[_Russ_]

No spare ammo for Grad rocket systems? Other reports indicate continuous firing of the same. The article seems to have a lot of wishful thinking. Dresses up inaction as somehow the right thing.

How many times has the "Russia is running out of ...blah blah" nonsense been dragged out now?.

 

[agricola]

How many times has the "Russia is running out of ...blah blah" nonsense been dragged out now?.

hopefully the media will run out of those references soon

 

[Dogsauce]

How many times has the "Russia is running out of ...blah blah" nonsense been dragged out now?.

Not nearly as many times as the ISW Twitter lot have claimed that Russia’s attack has ‘culminated’.

 

[Pickman's model]

How many times has the "Russia is running out of ...blah blah" nonsense been dragged out now?.

Nearly as often as you've been walt of the month

 

[tim]

How many times has the "Russia is running out of ...blah blah" nonsense been dragged out now?.

It was dragged out quite a lot by Prigozhin, but he probably won't be dragging it out much more, now he's moved to the outer suburbs of Minsk.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Russia & Ukraine both saying the other side is planning an escalation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station.

Russia, Ukraine accuse each other of plotting imminent attack on nuclear plant

Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday accused each other of plotting to stage an attack on the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, long the subject of mutual recriminations and suspicions.

www.reuters.com

-Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday accused each other of plotting to stage an attack on the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, long the subject of mutual recriminations and suspicions.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he told his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, about Russian "dangerous provocations" at the plant in southeastern Ukraine.

Russian troops seized the station, Europe's largest nuclear facility with six reactors, in the days following the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Each side has since regularly accused the other of shelling around the plant and risking a major nuclear mishap.

Renat Karchaa, an adviser to the head of Rosenergoatom, which operates Russia's nuclear network, said Ukraine planned to drop ammunition laced with nuclear waste transported from another of the country's five nuclear stations on the plant.

"Under cover of darkness overnight on 5th July, the Ukrainian military will try to attack the Zaporizhzhia station using long-range precision equipment and kamikaze attack drones," Russian news agencies quoted Karchaa as telling Russian television. He offered no evidence in support of his allegation.

Zelenskiy tweeted that he had told Macron in a telephone conversation that "the occupation troops are preparing dangerous provocations at the Zaporizhzhia (nuclear plant)."

He said he and Macron had "agreed keep the situation under maximum control together with the IAEA", the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency.

A statement issued by the Ukrainian armed forces quoted "operational data" as saying that "explosive devices" had been placed on the roof of the station's third and fourth reactors on Tuesday. An attack was possible "in the near future".

"If detonated, they would not damage the reactors but would create an image of shelling from the Ukrainian side," the statement on Telegram said. It said the Ukrainian army stood "ready to act under any circumstances".

Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military also provided no evidence for their assertions.

None of the reactors at the plant is producing electricity.

In his nightly video message, Zelenskiy said Russia was planning to "simulate an attack on the plant. Or they could have some other kind of scenario.

"But in any case, the world sees - and cannot fail to see - that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia. And no one else."

IAEA WANTS PLANT DEMILITARISED

The IAEA, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, has been trying for more than a year to clinch a deal to ensure the plant is demilitarised and reduce the risks of any nuclear accident.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

How many times has the "Russia is running out of ...blah blah" nonsense been dragged out now?.

I thought the amount of mutunions they were using had slowed down which indicates that supply was a problem?

 

[The39thStep]

I thought the amount of mutunions they were using had slowed down which indicates that supply was a problem?

I don't think supply from the factories is an issue, we seem to have moved beyond the rusty weapons/shovels propaganda to accepting that production may have in fact been ramped up. It's where supply dumps are hit that causes logistical problems. However, this issue is the same for both sides.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

I don't think supply from the factories is an issue, we seem to have moved beyond the rusty weapons/shovels propaganda to accepting that production may have in fact been ramped up. It's where supply dumps are hit that causes logistical problems. However, this issue is the same for both sides.

It has been ramped up in Russia. I have (had - it's summer now) a Russian student. She was reporting to me that production has been ramped up to such an extent that people working in these industries are going to have to work 6 days a week instead of 5 by some decree or other, and that work hours have been extended too.

 

[Pickman's model]

I thought the amount of mutunions they were using had slowed down which indicates that supply was a problem?

Which may indicate. Or may not.

 

[Pickman's model]

It has been ramped up in Russia. I have (had - it's summer now) a Russian student. She was reporting to me that production has been ramped up to such an extent that people working in these industries are going to have to work 6 days a week instead of 5 by some decree or other, and that work hours have been extended too.

This The Return of Industrial Warfare from last year plus various reports since highlights that the Western powers are in the shit as regards missile and ammunition production. This NATO allies would run out of ammo within days of war with Russia: Report from Feb 23 reiterates the issue. Given the increasing tensions between China and the USA it's hard to see that the current provision of materiel to Ukraine can continue at the same rate indefinitely as nato forces will need a considerable quantity in case of any war in support of Taiwan or in the event of a war over Chinese ambitions in the south China Sea. Russian production may falter. Its logistical problems may exacerbate any production issues it may have. But it, unlike Ukraine, is not at so much risk of matters beyond its control affecting its ability to wage war. For my money - and bear in mind I have been constant regarding 2025 for some years now - western supply of Ukraine presents China with an opportunity unlikely to be repeated, of being able to attack Taiwan while the Americans have scant reserve of many of their most effective weapons. A potential change of presidents in Washington doesn't change the calculus so much as America being in the possible position of needing to supply a war on two fronts, and it seems reasonable to me to suggest that in such a position the Americans would supply their own forces to the detriment of ukraine

 

[editor]

Tragic to see Russia still cowardly targeting civilians, residential apartments and restaurants. I look forward to the day that these war criminals get what's coming to them.

 

[The39thStep]

She and her solicitor were really badly assaulted

 

[editor]

She and her solicitor were really badly assaulted

Fucking cowardly scum.

Chechnya has been run by Ramzan Kadyrov since 2007. A staunch ally of Vladimir Putin and a cheerleader for the war in Ukraine, he has been widely accused of ordering extrajudicial killings, abductions and torture at home.
The journalist and lawyer described how their car had been ambushed by a group of at least 10 masked men in three cars a short distance from the airport. She said later they believed the men had been waiting for them inside the airport.
"It was a classic kidnapping," Yelena Milashina told a Chechen human rights official in hospital in Grozny. "They pinned down then threw our driver out of his car, climbed in, bent our heads down, tied my hands, forced me to my knees and put a gun to my head."
"They threw us on the side of the road and started kicking us in the face, all over the body... they stabbed me in the leg," Mr Nemov was quoted as telling the Russian bar association.
They were then dragged into a ravine, Ms Milashina explained later, and the men started beating them with plastic polypropylene pipes, demanding that they unlock their mobile phones. She explained her password was too complicated to tap in while being beaten.
"They didn't understand, and by the time they did they had already shaved me and poured green dye on me and I didn't see a thing," she told Sergei Babinets of rights group Crew against Torture.

Chechnya Milashina attack: Armed thugs beat up Russian journalist and lawyer

Yelena Milashina had received threats from Chechnya's leader before, but went to hear a court verdict.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[The39thStep]

Back channel, track 2, 'casual' discussions, testing the water but Biden's been briefed. 'Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'

Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with Russians

The aim of the discussions is to lay the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the war, people briefed on the talks told NBC News.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[ska invita]

Back channel, track 2, 'casual' discussions, testing the water but Biden's been briefed. 'Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'

Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with Russians

The aim of the discussions is to lay the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the war, people briefed on the talks told NBC News.

www.nbcnews.com

NBC/CNBC is a good news source for coverage of this war I've found, gives a much more honest impression of how things are looking from the US, which is after all the country in the driving seat here.

 

[Pickman's model]

NBC/CNBC is a good news source for coverage of this war I've found, gives a much more honest impression of how things are looking from the US, which is after all the country in the driving seat here.

Not really is it. Because if they were really in the driving seat do you think the Ukraine offensive would be the indecisive thing us officials anticipate? How is Biden in the driving seat on this one?

 

[ska invita]

Because if they were really in the driving seat do you think the Ukraine offensive would be the indecisive thing us officials anticipate?

i keep rereading this but i dont understand your question

 

[MrCurry]

Back channel, track 2, 'casual' discussions, testing the water but Biden's been briefed. 'Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'

Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with Russians

The aim of the discussions is to lay the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the war, people briefed on the talks told NBC News.

www.nbcnews.com

I suppose we should be wary of simplistic interpretations, but that sounds very much like the US preparing to sell Ukraine down the river by agreeing a secret deal with Russia that they will keep parts of what they’ve seized in exchange for withdrawing. All conveniently in time for next year’s US elections.

 

[_Russ_]

I suppose we should be wary of simplistic interpretations, but that sounds very much like the US preparing to sell Ukraine down the river by agreeing a secret deal with Russia that they will keep parts of what they’ve seized in exchange for withdrawing. All conveniently in time for next year’s US elections.

Despite wordy presentations the US policy makers are ultimately lead by simplistic guidelines of profit and loss not only in financial terms.
I agree that it looks like the ground is being readied for a classic American let’s get the fuck out scenario

 

[ska invita]

I suppose we should be wary of simplistic interpretations, but that sounds very much like the US preparing to sell Ukraine down the river by agreeing a secret deal with Russia that they will keep parts of what they’ve seized in exchange for withdrawing. All conveniently in time for next year’s US elections.

thats looked the most likely outcome for a long time IMO
i do object to "sell Ukraine down the river by agreeing a secret deal " though. its reported that Ukraine has also has much of its professional soldiers killed and is heavily reliant on conscripts. There comes a point where an army has to recognise the limits of what it can achieve. The fact that the US is talking to Russians about a deal doesnt mean those same conversations havent already been had with Ukranians. Id expect every possible eventuality of the war has been discussed to the point of exhaustion.

Anyway, no point getting too far down the hypotheticals tunnel just yet.

 

[kabbes]

What it needs is for some British toffs to draw a straight line across the country, and be damned if that bisects a few towns along the way. That’ll settle it for good.

 

[ska invita]

Sad truth is Putin has already drawn the new border

 

[strung out]

thats looked the most likely outcome for a long time IMO
i do object to "sell Ukraine down the river by agreeing a secret deal " though. its reported that Ukraine has also has much of its professional soldiers killed and is heavily reliant on conscripts. There comes a point where an army has to recognise the limits of what it can achieve. The fact that the US is talking to Russians about a deal doesnt mean those same conversations havent already been had with Ukranians. Id expect every possible eventuality of the war has been discussed to the point of exhaustion.

Anyway, no point getting too far down the hypotheticals tunnel just yet.

It's not really the US talking to Russia. It's some weird think tank people who object to Ukraine fighting to take their territory back and want to present them with a negotiated fait accompli that forces them to take a deal they don't want, so everyone can quickly forget what Russia has done and get back to business as usual.

 

[_Russ_]

"Ben Hodges @general_ben: Well, you can't be assertive if you don't know what your your objective is. I mean the objective, the objective seems to be avoid World War Three and avoid the Russian Federation collapse and so. And and keep Ukraine in the fight so that they don't lose. So it's hard to be assertive with ... If that's the unstated desired outcome .... I hate that statement. I'm with you for as long as it takes and and as long as what takes. It's an empty statement. It's a feel good statement, but. It doesn't. It doesn't deliver 11 rocket, one missile, one anything.
And so it's a it's an escape statement for leaders. Uh, which, unfortunately, too many of them use. And so if I ever hear it, I would always say, OK, so as long as what takes, you know, please tell me as long as what takes. And and good luck sticking with it"