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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

That's not going to happen quickly (if at all) though, and I suspect if it does it opens a whole new can of worms about the fragmentation of Russia and all the instability that would likely bring. Not many good outcomes for what's going on now that I can see, does feel like things are going to shit most likely, or at least a new era of increased tension in Europe.

Don’t disagree with what you’ve said, but all those processes were moving subterraneanly anyway.
 
Vitali Klitschko, Mayor of Kiev and former heavyweight boxing champion, warns of a difficult night ahead. I think I heard on the radio that he is going to fight.
When I first heard Vitaly Klitschko was the mayor of Kiev I thought there must be another one, but no. It is THE Vitaly Klitschko.

I’m hoping we can convince Frank Bruno to stand against Sadiq Khan.
 
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That's not going to happen quickly (if at all) though, and I suspect if it does it opens a whole new can of worms about the fragmentation of Russia and all the instability that would likely bring. Not many good outcomes for what's going on now that I can see, does feel like things are going to shit most likely, or at least a new era of increased tension in Europe.
Agreed, and it's important not to overlook the depth and degree to which Putin is still capable of directing public opinion through his media.
 
Russian ambassador to Ireland just got ripped to shreds in an interview on RTE news

The same ambassador who said this on Feb 16th.

"We do not have any plans to invade anybody, least of all Ukraine," Mr Filatov said.

"We do not have any political, economic, military or [any] other reason to do that. The whole idea is insane. If you knew something about the Russian and Ukrainian people you would never ask such a question."


Here's the news clip.

 
Although the Russians have a much larger Army - the Ukrainians have modern equipment and they will have prepared for exactly this scenario for years - no doubt with plenty of info and advice from NATO. NATO will also be providing top level intelligence on russian troop movements etc. Also the Ukrainians have are very highly motivated - their country is facing an existential threat - and know that the longer they hold out the worse it gets for Putin - they have a massive incentive to fight like fuck and they are being loudly cheered on by pretty much the entire world.
The Russians troops may well not be highly motivated and have not faced such a determined and well armed opponent in living memory. Putin aside - how much stomach have the Russian military got for a prolonged, hugely costly fight. Sure - if they keep going they will conquer the country - but then they will be facing a prolonged, very well supported - and ultimately unwinnable insurgency.
It may be that the original plan was to sweep in quickly , knock out the Urkanian state and then negotiate a ceasefire on their terms - looks like they might not happen any time soon. This means they will probably start bombing and the shelling the fuck out of Kiev and other cities and the conflict will drag on- with the wolrd screaming for it to halt. Popular opinion does matter - russians have the internet, they have friends and relatives all over the world - not least in Ukraine. Putin's Russia is not North Korea - he does not have the totalitarian power of a Stalin. Are other senior regime members and military really prepared for Russia to become a Pariah state for the sake of Putins vanity/hubris/insantiy?
 
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