Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[RD2003]

Of course he did, all by himself. Clever!

No, he gave the order, 'Britain must have Brexit!'

 

[steveseagull]

Chomping through the Russian Air Force

 

[dilute micro]

If they really took down that IL-76 with the paratroopers onboard that's huge. That will ripple through the Russian army and will hurt morale.

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Want to listen to a nerd get a subtle semi over anti-tank weapons?

 

[Dandred]

 

[RD2003]

This is interesting: Lev Gumilev: passion, Putin and power

 

[JimW]

There was talk earlier in the thread about whether conscripts could be used, Meduza has this on possible compulsion to sign contracts: ‘I’m panicking — where is my child?’ Conscript soldiers are being sent to fight against Ukraine, their relatives say. Here’s what their families told Meduza. — Meduza

 

[Rimbaud]

I don’t like to say it, but I can’t see what the US & UK are on about when they declare that Putin’s plans have gone awry & things aren’t panning out as he’d have liked. It’s only been 1 day and already the Russians are on the outskirts of Kiev FFS.

It took the US around 5 weeks to take Kabul (13/11/2001?) from the start of combat operations on 7 October 2001. Similarly, the 2003 Iraq invasion lasted about a month before Bush fatuously announced ‘mission accomplished’.

I’ll be very happy to be proved wrong, and maybe the Ukrainian army’s strategy is to lure the Russians into the city and house-by-house street fighting, but it does seem premature to claim Putin’s plans are unravelling after just one day

On the other hand, according to some reports, Putin has lost more soldiers in the first 2 days than the US lost in the first 2 years in Iraq.

Could be bullshit, still hard to tell by now, but if not, I don't think this is even close to as one sided as the Iraq war was.

 

[Rimbaud]

No, he gave the order, 'Britain must have Brexit!'

Just like the CIA ordered the Euromaidan, right?

 

[Weller]

On the other hand, according to some reports, Putin has lost more soldiers in the first 2 days than the US lost in the first 2 years in Iraq.

Could be bullshit, still hard to tell by now, but if not, I don't think this is even close to as one sided as the Iraq war was.

Theres some crazy reports about on twitter etc but wasn't it around 1500 lost for USA in Iraq first 2 years though and if that were true for Putin just 2 days wouldn't he have massively ramped things up he seems mad enough too if it really was that

Lots of shelling and bombing hour ago and still happening on live streams around Kyiv but could be either side Ukraine seems much better equipped than Saddam ever really was by the time US invaded anyway
Wasn't Iraq just very inaccurate scud missiles coming back and Saddam setting oil reserves on fire as smoke screen etc as was all he really had no weapons of mass destruction etc

I have an ex work friend living in Ukraine now so worrying times looking at what both have that they COULD use if it does carry on like Iraq

 

[agricola]

Can’t believe the news about that IL-76 shot down (some reports say two), poor bastards.

 

[Aladdin]

All of this is horrible..

 

[JimW]

Can’t believe the news about that IL-76 shot down (some reports say two), poor bastards.

Apparently US officials confirmed it was two to the AP, but can't see the tweet myself:

 

[JimW]

Communist Duma member Mikhail Matveyev is first to call publicly for an end to the war:

I voted to recognize the DNR/LNR for peace, not for war. For Russia to become a shield, so they wouldn’t bomb the Donbas — not so [we'd] bomb Kyiv.

 

[petee]

compendium of anarchist statements

Against the Invasion of Ukraine: Support Resistance to the War

Caught between rival factions of the ruling class and the escalating possibility of world war, the exploited and excluded of the Ukraine now find themselves assaulted by an all out invasion by Putin. While authoritarians on the Left, Right and in the Center cheer on their factions, as anarchists...

itsgoingdown.org

 

[bimble]

I don't think that Putin anticipated that Zelensky, the Jewish ex-comedian, would turn into this really quite macho heroic war-leader figure who gives good twitter videos from the streets whilst knowing he's a target to get wiped out. I reckon he expected him to flee. "I need ammunition, not a ride" was a good line.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I don't think that Putin anticipated that Zelensky, the Jewish ex-comedian, would turn into this really quite macho heroic war-leader figure who gives good twitter videos from the streets whilst knowing he's a target to get wiped out. I reckon he expected him to flee. "I need ammunition, not a ride" was a good line.

Meanwhile man's man Putin is cowering from everyone and everything.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This hit on a residential block of flats seems legit, as Sky has been showing live footage of it.



They are also reporting fighting has broken out in certain areas of Kyiv, by advance Russian special forces that are attempting to push towards the city centre, but are facing strong resistance from the Ukrainian military. Main convoys of Russian troops and tanks are some way from Kyiv, held up be Ukrainian forces, and lots of suggestions that Putin had expected to just roll into a number of cities by now, the fear is he may start using heavier weapons, resulting in heavy civilian casualties.

 

[kebabking]

A couple of interesting things I'll lob on the thread.

Russian ground forces still aren't doing deliberate night fighting - that points to two things: firstly a lack of night vision and GPS navigation gear, and secondly a lack of training.

The Ukrainians shot down two Russian Il-76 transport aircraft south west of Kyiv. That the Russian Air Force would send such vunerable aircraft there says that a) 'the plan' did not imagine that Ukrainian resistance would be anything like as effective as it is, b) that 'the plan' is far more important than the objective reality of the combat conditions (for the war nerds, that's a phrase that was treated as the holy of holies within the Red Army, so I'm using it with some relish...), and/or c) that people who know their business with regards to air assault operations are being over-ridden by who don't.

The IL-76 could take up to 200 soldiers, or 120(ish) parachutists - and they would be from the absolute, elite, tip-of-the-spear of the Russian Army - the failure of this op, and the losses involved, combined with the failure of the airmobile op at Antonov Airport at Kyiv on the first night of the war and the losses involved there, is going to have a serious impact on the morale of the airborne forces, and the wide Army for whom they are the elite, and the willingness of planners to use them again.

I've seen the phrase 'amateur hour' used, and while I have some misgivings about using it, it's certainly true that something has gone very wrong in either the planning of these operations, or the execution of them.

Having seen the various videos of Putin haranguing his senior intelligence officials, I'd put some money on him sticking his oar into the planning cells and/or screaming at operational HQ's and using words like gulag...

 

[Idris2002]

Bollocks.

 

[LDC]

See below, video old.

 

[killer b]

The very first reply to that tweet is someone linking to a copy of the same video on YouTube from several years ago

 

[Kaka Tim]

How long can the Russians sustain a full on assault at this level?
Apart from the logistics, Im guessing putin needs kyiv to fall quickly as otherwise it is a propaganda disaster that could have serious implications for domestic support for the war, the morale of the army and the international response.

 

[bimble]

Meanwhile man's man Putin is cowering from everyone and everything.

Bizarre video here, that i cant find any other version of. Apparently Putin speaking to business leaders (?) yesterday.

He seems apologetic, kind of frightened.

Not at all the same as in previous recent televised addresses.

 

[Idris2002]

The very first reply to that tweet is someone linking to a copy of the same video on YouTube from several years ago

See my deletion. "You done fucked up, son".

 

[strung out]

It's hard not to look at the downing of those two troop carrying Russian planes and not think back to the destruction of MH17 and the murder of 280 civilians (including 80 children) back in 2014, by the Russian backed forces in Donbas. Bit of justice there.

 

[killer b]

See my deletion. "You done fucked up, son".

No worries. Useful to remind everyone to check before sharing anyway

 

[Smokeandsteam]

putin needs kyiv to fall quickly as otherwise it is a propaganda disaster that could have serious implications for domestic support for the war, the morale of the army and the international response.

Let’s hope so. My sense is he’s already losing the first off that list. No idea re the second and no faith in the latter. The best possible outcome here however is that Russians turn on him and his stinking regime.

 

[LDC]

The best possible outcome here however is that Russians turn on him and his stinking regime.

That's not going to happen quickly (if at all) though, and I suspect if it does it opens a whole new can of worms about the fragmentation of Russia and all the instability that would likely bring. Not many good outcomes for what's going on now that I can see, does feel like things are going to shit most likely, or at least a new era of increased tension in Europe.

 

[Yossarian]

See my deletion. "You done fucked up, son".

Well, at least it shows that there are a lot of people in Kyiv who aren't exactly strangers to using Molotov cocktails against armoured vehicles.