Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[not-bono-ever]

No fighting in the war room Vlad

 

[LDC]

ISW concludes drone at Kremlin was likely a Russian staged event Institute for the Study of War

Also been some wild speculation last night on Russia using a nuclear strike, seems like it was some fevered dream of an OSINT weirdo.

 

[LDC]

Quite 'looking forward' to seeing all the usual suspects that claim everything is a false flag claming this likely false flag definitely isn't...

 

[The39thStep]

ISW concludes drone at Kremlin was likely a Russian staged event Institute for the Study of War

Also been some wild speculation last night on Russia using a nuclear strike, seems like it was some fevered dream of an OSINT weirdo.

Nuclear strike also parroted by Osechkin ( the one who had the story about the Wagner atrocities) and Igor Sushko. Suchko also predicted that if there was a nuclear strike Putin would be deposed by a coup.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

also we all know putins currently hiding behind a very large table in a bunker somewhere

Still scared of covid?

 

[existentialist]

Still scared of covid?

Still paranoid.

 

[Spymaster]

Quite 'looking forward' to seeing all the usual suspects that claim everything is a false flag claming this likely false flag definitely isn't...

In fairness, it's a staggeringly crap false flag operation that relies on convincing your target audience that your defences are so shit, an enemy can land a bomb on your seat of government with a fifty quid drone.

 

[strung out]

ISW concludes drone at Kremlin was likely a Russian staged event Institute for the Study of War

Also been some wild speculation last night on Russia using a nuclear strike, seems like it was some fevered dream of an OSINT weirdo.

I would be very wary of some of the stuff ISW is coming out with at the moment. There is a good thread here on why some of their conclusions seem questionable and why it's a good idea to stay open minded about some of the recent developments in the war.

 

[moochedit]

Cracks in Brics?

China votes for UN resolution with reference to Russia's 'aggression'

The resolution is not centred on the Ukraine war and instead calls for greater cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Did their ambassador skim read it?

 

[LDC]

I would be very wary of some of the stuff ISW is coming out with at the moment. There is a good thread here on why some of their conclusions seem questionable and why it's a good idea to stay open minded about some of the recent developments in the war.

Cheers, that's interesting.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

In fairness, it's a staggeringly crap false flag operation that relies on convincing your target audience that your air defences are so shit that an enemy can land a bomb on your seat of government with a fifty quid drone.

You assume that the people they are trying to impress have more than a vodka-soaked potato for a brain.

Putin is not in the Kremlin these days, even if there were he wouldn't be at 2am.

The explosions were tiny, no more than a flash-bang. No damage was done to any buildings.

The CCTV was perfectly positioned to capture the explosions, it also captured the fact that there were two people climbing the dome wearing fire-fighter helmets. In Russia fire-fighters arrive before the fire.

Immediately declared an assassination attempt on Putin, a terrorist incident that gives Russia the greenlight to respond in anyway it feels fit, indeed the missiles started flying toward Kyiv straight after it was declared such.

Yet another comical pile of bollocks from Russia, we can see it, but those that have had nothing but bullshit brainwashing for years lap it up and cheer on the missiles heading to Ukraine.

 

[nogojones]

Would assume that the people you are trying to impress have more than a vodka-soaked potato for a brain.

Putin is not in the Kremlin these days, even if here were he wouldn't be at 2am.

The explosions were tiny, no more than a flash-bang. No damage was done to any buildings.

There CCTV was perfectly positioned to capture the expulsions, it also captured the fact that there were two people climbing the dome wearing fire-fighter helmets. In Russia fire-fighters arrive before the fire.

Immediately declared an assassination attempt on Putin, a terrorist incident that gives Russia the greenlight to respond in anyway it feels fit, indeed the missiles started flying toward Kyiv straight after it was declared such.

Yet another comical pile of bollocks from Russia, we can see it, but those that have had nothing but bullshit brainwashing for years lap it up and cheer on the missiles heading to Ukraine.

Looking back at the first vid of the attack and there is clearly two people climbing the dome in the middle of the night. So it's either an amazing coincidence that some staff were up there cleaning bat droppings off the roof, or the attack was known to be coming. I'm leaning towards shenanigans personally.



Eta. There's also wobble on the camera, so it's not some fixed CCTV or webcam view of the Kremlin. Someone was just "lucky" enough to be filming the roof of the Kremlin in the middle of the night

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm leaning towards shenanigans personally.

If Kyiv had the capacity to drone Moscow, from nearly 300 miles away you'd think they'd cancel the 9th May Red Square parade too...

 

[LDC]

Looks more like a firework type explosion than anything, and the people on the roof barely ducked. (I mean I know fuck all, but looks quite odd to me.)

 

[_Russ_]

You assume that the people they are trying to impress have more than a vodka-soaked potato for a brain.

Putin is not in the Kremlin these days, even if there were he wouldn't be at 2am.

The explosions were tiny, no more than a flash-bang. No damage was done to any buildings.

The CCTV was perfectly positioned to capture the explosions, it also captured the fact that there were two people climbing the dome wearing fire-fighter helmets. In Russia fire-fighters arrive before the fire.

Immediately declared an assassination attempt on Putin, a terrorist incident that gives Russia the greenlight to respond in anyway it feels fit, indeed the missiles started flying toward Kyiv straight after it was declared such.

Yet another comical pile of bollocks from Russia, we can see it, but those that have had nothing but bullshit brainwashing for years lap it up and cheer on the missiles heading to Ukraine.

I have no idea whether it was false flag or not, though seems the resident Walt knows for sure.

Just a quick point though, the 2 blokes went up the dome AFTER the first drone strike.

 

[Spymaster]

If Kyiv had the capacity to drone Moscow, from nearly 300 miles away you'd think they'd cancel the 9th May Red Square parade too...

I don't think that's the pretence that they're trying to uphold though. A drone flight over 300 miles of heavily defended Russian territory culminating with a bomb landing on the Kremlin is too ludicrous a proposition for even vodka-soaked potato brains. What they seem to be trying to sell is that it was an attack launched more locally by Ukrainian backed insurgents, or SF.

 

[Spymaster]

... the resident Walt knows for sure.

Who's that then?

 

[StoneRoad]

Looking again at the quality of the film, and the fact that the area is well-equipped with "pantsir" systems and the range ...

I'm inclined to say "false-flag operation" is more likely, although I don't totally dismiss the idea of pro-Ukrainian / insurgents / SFs being involved.

 

[nogojones]

I have no idea whether it was false flag or not, though seems the resident Walt knows for sure.

Just a quick point though, the 2 blokes went up the dome AFTER the first drone strike.

Didn't realise there were two drones involved. I'm going back to undecided now.

 

[A380]

The attack was in fact launched by Russian anti fascist anarchists fighting alongside Ukraine. But they were the wrong sort of anti fascist anarchists fighting alongside Ukraine.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Just a quick point though, the 2 blokes went up the dome AFTER the first drone strike.

You sure?

Doesn't seem so from here:

 

[spitfire]

Couple of threads here with the timeline that suggests the 2 geezers were on the ladder before the fiery bang but after the first drone.

One was retweeted by Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat but they definitely work for the CIA so can't be trusted.

Personally I don't know what to think of it all so will bravely sit on the fence.

 

[MickiQ]

If they're going to these lengths then surely they must believe that the public really aren't behind them anymore.

 

[A380]

If they're going to these lengths then surely they must believe that the public really aren't behind them anymore.

Well, whatever else they are, they aren’t stupid.

 

[existentialist]

Who's that then?

I think it's projection. Our interlocutor seems to be fairly high up the list of people flinging around categorical claims based in absolutely nothing at all.

 

[planetgeli]

Cui bono? Who benefits?

What does Ukraine have to benefit from throwing a firework at the Kremlin in the middle of the night?

vs

Big up the threat/increased mobilisation/increased military action etc. (I don't believe for a minute Putin is bothered about getting the proles onside - 'we are under attack' is a far more basic or visceral message).

 

[ska invita]

Who benefits?

Arms industry
Ultimately irrelevant action in the scheme of things, tomorrows chip paper

 

[The39thStep]

Who's that then?

Pm me once we get an answer

 

[JimW]

Did their ambassador skim read it?

I read a book on the history of the China - India border conflict and IIRC there was one treaty back in the 1920s where their bloke with plenipotentiary powers signed off on something and missed a bit to the annoyance of Beiping or Nanjing or wherever when it came to light, plus much ongoing wrangling.

 

[JimW]

Has thunderbolt from a pissed off Jehovah been ruled out?