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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Yes , it was the RCP and RCG who had the victory to Malvinas line wasn't it. ?
Socialist Organiser I think wanted 'self determination for the Falklands ?
Militant were stop the war ?
the Millies lines was just bizarre (as you might expect).

Ooh, I've found it - once again illustrating the genius of Comrade Grant

The labour movement should be mobilised to force a general election to open the way for the return of a Labour government to implement socialist policies at home and abroad. Victory of a socialist government in Britain would immediately transform the situation in relation to the Falklands. The junta would no longer be able to claim to be fighting British imperialism ... A Labour government could not just abandon the Falklanders and let Galtieri get on with it. But it would continue the war on socialist lines.
 
the Millies lines was just bizarre (as you might expect).

Ooh, I've found it - once again illustrating the genius of Comrade Grant

The labour movement should be mobilised to force a general election to open the way for the return of a Labour government to implement socialist policies at home and abroad. Victory of a socialist government in Britain would immediately transform the situation in relation to the Falklands. The junta would no longer be able to claim to be fighting British imperialism ... A Labour government could not just abandon the Falklanders and let Galtieri get on with it. But it would continue the war on socialist lines.
And yet still a more coherent line than TC's ... *


*I should disclose that I was a member -not that they had members, oh no - of that particular Trot group for a few months. Till I realised that my mum's (Euro Communist) analysis of them as 'stupid trot kids' was, in fact, correct... I should also add in my defence that I fancied the membership secretary, a lot. That was post the Falkands though, and the fancying was unrequited...)
 
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What does the Falklands have to do with Ukraine?

Apart from both being illegally invaded by countries run by extremely unpleasant dictators, that funny enough the people living there didn't want to live under.
I think the thread deserves a little detour every now and again . It’s grim stuff . Anyway were you hinting that you backed our boys ?
 
I think the thread deserves a little detour every now and again .
And of course, whatever else came from the Falklands campaign * it saw a dictator invade a territory, assuming they would just move in and the government responsible would roll over, get surprisingly (to most of the world) beaten; lose power leading to much needed regime change. Here's hoping.

*Fucking Thatch, I know.
 
You are obviously wrong. Lots here support the US etc and want them to win.

I don't want anyone to win, I want Russia to lose. More specifically I want Putin and his fucking awful government to lose. There aren't going to be any winners anyway except the arms industry. But generally I confess I probably want the aggressor in a war, to lose the war they start. I wanted the US-UK coalition to lose in Iraq (of course they were never going to but that's not the point). You can hope Russia loses its fucked up macho war, without supporting NATO, the USA, or war in general.
 
Apparently Zelenskyy visited somewhere in Avdiivka, to award medals.

Putin visited somewhere on the Arabit Spit, somewhat further behind the frontlines.
The clip I saw on the BBC had P, opening a gift, which looked like an icon.
To me, it seems strange that, during a "special military operation" a senior officer has the time & resources to obtain such an item of religious significance.
 
Apparently Zelenskyy visited somewhere in Avdiivka, to award medals.

Putin visited somewhere on the Arabit Spit, somewhat further behind the frontlines.
The clip I saw on the BBC had P, opening a gift, which looked like an icon.
To me, it seems strange that, during a "special military operation" a senior officer has the time & resources to obtain such an item of religious significance.

The gift was for Orthodox Easter, which has already happened. There’s speculation that this is just additional footage from his previous visit (and more that this is the body double again, but that feels a bit conspiracy theory to me, though a few pointers as to why seem plausible)
 
  • Ukraine’s government has criticised Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his efforts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, and invited the Brazilian leader to visit the war-torn country and see for himself the consequences of the Russian invasion. Lula responded by condemning the violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity by Russia and again called for mediation to end the war.
 
  • Ukraine’s government has criticised Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his efforts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, and invited the Brazilian leader to visit the war-torn country and see for himself the consequences of the Russian invasion. Lula responded by condemning the violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity by Russia and again called for mediation to end the war.

I don't think I've seen you ever post more than a news link without comment, or at most a sentence as a contribution to this thread and topic.

Something coherently setting out your actual position and politics or making an argument for it would be welcome.

What do you think about that article might be a start?
 
In remarks to journalists as he returned from his trip, Lula said Brazil was “trying to build a group of countries without any involvement in the war, that don’t want the war and defend world peace to have a discussion with both Russia and Ukraine”.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: LDC
“They invaded Ukraine because Ukraine wanted to join an alliance that was formed to stop Russian aggression”

So close, yet so far to epiphany
Russia invaded Ukraine because they thought they could get away with it as they did in 2014. Had the push on Kyiv succeeded and Zekensky either capitulated or bern replaced by a puppet, nobody in the West would have cared much. There would have been hand-wringing, wrist-slapping and after a respectable period, business returning back to normal with oligarchs syphoning of their ill-gotten proceeds to the Western financial institutions.

This has nothing to do with NATO expansion or with a desire to check Russian expansion. It's a failed invasion which has given the USA & UK the opportunity to 💪. If they didn't get involved they would lose face by appearing as weak as the Russians.
 
Russia invaded Ukraine because they thought they could get away with it as they did in 2014. Had the push on Kyiv succeeded and Zekensky either capitulated or bern replaced by a puppet, nobody in the West would have cared much. There would have been hand-wringing, wrist-slapping and after a respectable period, business returning back to normal with oligarchs syphoning of their ill-gotten proceeds to the Western financial institutions.

This has nothing to do with NATO expansion or with a desire to check Russian expansion. It's a failed invasion which has given the USA & UK the opportunity to 💪. If they didn't get involved they would lose face by appearing as weak as the Russians.


No shit
 
I don't want anyone to win, I want Russia to lose. More specifically I want Putin and his fucking awful government to lose. There aren't going to be any winners anyway except the arms industry. But generally I confess I probably want the aggressor in a war, to lose the war they start. I wanted the US-UK coalition to lose in Iraq (of course they were never going to but that's not the point). You can hope Russia loses its fucked up macho war, without supporting NATO, the USA, or war in general.
Thats basically how i feel too, but that's the easy bit. The hard bit is what happens next.

Russia has successfully annexed the Ukrainian coastline within the first month of the invasion and are fully embedded in the annexed land a year later.
TC posted a link to a letter calling for the US (sorry, Poland-led NATO) to massively increase the amount of arms going to Ukraine as everyone now recognises that this territory is effectively lost and for Ukraine to "win" (it back) it needs to massively increase firepower. That is one option.

In fact there are only three options that NATO will follow:
1. Massively increase the arming of Ukraine and retake the annexed land
2. Supply enough arms to maintain the 'stalemate' (a stalemate in which Russia has successfully annexed the southern sea border), and drag the war on indefinitely
3. Begin peace talks, which to be meaningful will inevitably mean agreeing to the loss of some Ukrainian territory. At the end of any peace talks no doubt a new, heavily armed border would be created.

I guess there is also 4, significant retreat, but under Biden at least, that won't happen, though potentially the clock is ticking towards this if the Republicans win the next election.

That's a realistic picture of the situation. The US has balked at #1 and is doing #2 for now. I can well see the case for #3, even more so if #4 is on the horizon. That was the case the head of the US army was making - negotiate now from a position of relative strength while Ukraine has it.
 
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Thats basically how i feel too, but that's the easy bit. The hard bit is what happens next.

Russia has successfully annexed the Ukrainian coastline within the first month of the invasion and are fully embedded in the annexed land a year later.
TC posted a link to a letter calling for the US (sorry, Poland-led NATO) to massively increase the amount of arms going to Ukraine as everyone now recognises that this territory is effectively lost and for Ukraine to "win" (it back) it needs to massively increase firepower. That is one option.

In fact there are only three options that NATO will follow:
1. Massively increase the arming of Ukraine and retake the annexed land
2. Supply enough arms to maintain the 'stalemate' (a stalemate in which Russia has successfully annexed the southern sea border), and drag the war on indefinitely
3. Begin peace talks, which to be meaningful will inevitably mean agreeing to the loss of some Ukrainian territory. At the end of any peace talks no doubt a new, heavily armed border would be created.

I guess there is also 4, significant retreat, but under Biden at least, that won't happen, though potentially the clock is ticking towards this if the Republicans win the next election.

That's a realistic picture of the situation. The US has balked at #1 and is doing #2 for now. I can well see the case for #3, even more so if #4 is on the horizon. That was the case the head of the US army was making - negotiate now from a position of relative strength while Ukraine has it.

I think it's not quite the case that one can separate those options into entirely different things though. The whole situation now (Ukraine not all under a brutal Russian occupation) is clearly largely or in part due to arms & intelligence etc. supply, and option 3) will now happen under much better terms than it would have in many other scenarios and will likely run alongside 4). In fact negotiation only can happen due to the fighting being reasonably successful, if they'd been no resistance (or minimal) there is no indication Russia would have done anything apart from occupy and engage in some variation of repression, forcible deportation, eradication of 'undesirable elements', etc. I mean I guess on some terrible weighing that up against the dead and injured from the fighting is something some people engage with though?

I think things might get very much worse if the Ukraine counter offensive is significantly effective, and Crimea looks like a winnable goal. I can see NATO and others then trying to put the brakes on Ukraine as if Russia starts seeing the loss of Crimea as likely, or even possible, then they will consider anything goes as being on the cards. I also think nobody wants to see the break-up of Russia and the loss of Crimea could also make that more likely.

Edited: Just a thought, but if Russia was at all serious and wanted to encourage the likelihood of peace talks they could get their media and politicians to lay off talking about wiping Ukraine and Ukrainians off the face of the planet.
 
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Not many would want the sudden break up of Russia, which could be very violent and dangerous. But a lot of Russia's own inhabitants, both from the majority ethnic Russian communities and from the non-Russian minorities, might well be in favour of a true federation. It exists on paper only. If you live in the Russian Far East or Siberia, even along the Volga somewhere, you probably would rather not be ruled all the way from Moscow, even if you don't often express that publicly.
 
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