Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
Nope. See the latest revelations from the dominion trial for details of his (and other fox news "big names'") duplicity.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
Bellingcat says that the Buk came from the 53rd not that the 53rd did the shootdown. DPR sepratists in leather jackets and adidas trackies pressed the button.
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
TopCat and anyone else who's interested, there's a transcript of the MH17 judgement hearing, operative paragraphs, summary of the day in court etc here:
MH17 trial | District Court of The Hague
from gosub on the Another Malaysian airliner crashed in Ukraine thread, Bellingcat open source evidence:
MH17 - The Open Source Evidence - bellingcat
MH17 trial | District Court of The Hague
from gosub on the Another Malaysian airliner crashed in Ukraine thread, Bellingcat open source evidence:
MH17 - The Open Source Evidence - bellingcat
How long can they keep sending people into the meat grinder before they mutiny?
Edit- Also if that is really the plan it's a bad one. Russia doesn't have unlimited human resources, it has an ageing and shrinking population, and up to a million Russians have fled the country since the war in addition to nearly 150,000 killed. It isn't China or India or even the US, it is barely in the top 10 countries by population and is only a little more populous than Mexico and Japan. Throwing away significantly more young lives than they have already is going to seal Russia's fate as an irrelevance far more than Ukraine joining NATO would.
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ska invita
back on the other side
population ukraine 43million, population russia 143 million.
plus its a brutal dictatorship so good luck dodging the draft.
it seems like war propaganda is broadly effective within russia also.
of course its all madness and a massive russian fuck up, probably they couldve got away with it if they just salami sliced along bits in the south east, but now they are committed and economy and arms production is on a war footing i wouldnt bank on russia just running out of steam
It's a big difference obviously but it's not THAT big a difference - Ukraine is basically in a total war scenario of national defense with defenders' advantage and increasingly advanced weaponry, while Russia has other security concerns beyond Ukraine and can't throw everything at them. Suppose Georgia decides to take back Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Or Japan takes some of those disputed islands back?
ska invita
back on the other side
i thought this was a good summation
www.theguardian.com
although these are the lines that really stand out for me, and chime with what ive been trying to say on this thread for a while now
"In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking. The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leaders appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank."
Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end?
Five scenarios for the end of the war, from a Russian or Ukrainian breakthrough to a frozen conflict
"In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking. The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leaders appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank."
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Does anyone out there know of any accurate estimates of comparative casualties?
In another part of the forest I saw some simps, feebs and three-time losers arguing that Ukraine was losing 8 soldiers for ever 1 Russian casualty, result: "in your face NATOcels, Putins' attritional strategy is working".
I hope it's not working, but I'd also like to know if there's any source, of any kind, that might even have a smidgen of reliability when it comes to that one.
In another part of the forest I saw some simps, feebs and three-time losers arguing that Ukraine was losing 8 soldiers for ever 1 Russian casualty, result: "in your face NATOcels, Putins' attritional strategy is working".
I hope it's not working, but I'd also like to know if there's any source, of any kind, that might even have a smidgen of reliability when it comes to that one.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
There's been mood music for a while about Ukraine maybe having to settle for a loss of some eastern territories in return for ending the war. In reality it would do nothing of the sort, and would only kick the can down the road at best. Everything will hinge on the next month or two, and on how well Ukraine does and how badly Russia performs.i thought this was a good summation
although these are the lines that really stand out for me, and chime with what ive been trying to say on this thread for a while nowWin, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end?
Five scenarios for the end of the war, from a Russian or Ukrainian breakthrough to a frozen conflict
"In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking. The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leaders appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank."
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
The US military estimated about 100,000 dead for both Russia and Ukraine three months back
I've not seen anything more reliable and more recent.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Yossarian
⏭️
More recent, don't know if more reliable:
On Norwegian TV on Jan. 22, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, said estimates were that Russia had suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths. General Kristoffersen, in an email to The New York Times through his spokesman, said that there is “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”
Senior U.S. officials said this week that they believe the number for Russia is closer to 200,000.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
I suppose whether the question there is whether kicking the can down the road would be worth it, compared to throwing the dice - its not only Russia who would get to rest, learn, refit and rearm and the argument around the Donbas and Crimea (that they were arbitrarily given to Ukraine during Soviet times and that there is some independent evidence* to suggest the population of those areas might genuinely want closer ties with / be a part of Russia) is the argument Putin has with the most justification to it (obviously not enough to justify what he's done) - so anything beyond that would be much harder for "the world" to accept (especially if it was "the world" who had come up with and guaranteed that peace plan - eg: if Lula's proposal led to a peace).
* of course not the recent referendums
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you can't pop those rounds of ammo in a howitzer or mlrs and expect them to work
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Ukraine itself has only released "figures" for Russian injured and dead, plus Ukrainian civilian numbers. Nothing from them about their own injured and dead and they are the only authority on this.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
very interesting article by anatol lieven - in the guardian of all places - For years, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. What made him finally snap in 2022? | Anatol Lieven
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Yeah I read that. Definitely a good piece. The Guardian has been doing a little reporting lately on how the world is not united with the "West's" war and has started reporting on why.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
BiB - exactly and something Putin ensured couldn't happened after the 2014 invasion, hence his excuse of Ukraine's possible NATO membership as one of the main reasons for this war was and is nothing more than complete bollocks, despite a tiny number of complete idiots on here swallowing that bullshit.
ska invita
back on the other side
The US IS a war economy
ska invita
back on the other side
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Only true for Crimea, not Donbas.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Why aren't there NATO troops in Ukraine then?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
from the guardian article i link to above. which doesn't make it seem such a batshit idea after all, the bit about the us-ukraine strategic partnership
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
My own little outlook on NATO-Ukraine relations is that there are plenty of NATO member states who would be quite happy to see that rule sail off into the shredder. Rules are made by people , and people can change them.
The (settled?) view out here is that if there's any kind of pausing of this conflict that isn't an outright Ukrainian military victory, then Russia will eventually - and not long term eventually - be back for what it wasn't able to achieve in Ukraine, and with a real hard on for the Eastern states, as well as Finland. The betting is that Putin will survive if there's a 'frozen conflict/partition' type result , but not a straightforward loss.
The other settled view out here - people I speak to from Finland to Romania - is that if a) the weapons transfers, and b) Ukrainian membership of NATO had been in place in February 2022, then not one Ukrainian would be dead. That is a view that is very widespread within NATO and the accession states, and that includes the US. That a country has been laid waste, and a quarter to a third of a million people are dead, and another 10 million are refugees and IDP's, because NATO refused to draw a red line on a map is something that weighs very heavily on the military, political, and diplomatic elites from the Arctic to the Med, and from Washington to Tallin.
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