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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Why aren't there NATO troops in Ukraine then?
You know why, but I hear your point. In practice NATO is supporting in every possible way other than boots on the ground.

If there is a peace treaty that leaves Russia with gained territory id expect that new border will be held up by international forces, but that's my speculation.
 
The (settled?) view out here is that if there's any kind of pausing of this conflict that isn't an outright Ukrainian military victory, then Russia will eventually - and not long term eventually - be back for what it wasn't able to achieve in Ukraine, and with a real hard on for the Eastern states, as well as Finland. The betting is that Putin will survive if there's a 'frozen conflict/partition' type result , but not a straightforward loss.

The other settled view out here - people I speak to from Finland to Romania - is that if a) the weapons transfers, and b) Ukrainian membership of NATO had been in place in February 2022, then not one Ukrainian would be dead. That is a view that is very widespread within NATO and the accession states, and that includes the US. That a country has been laid waste, and a quarter to a third of a million people are dead, and another 10 million are refugees and IDP's, because NATO refused to draw a red line on a map is something that weighs very heavily on the military, political, and diplomatic elites from the Arctic to the Med, and from Washington to Tallin.



Finland.

Didn’t Russia get pwned quite badly there previously?



Find it quite interesting that the US informed Russia of Bidens’s visit a few days before he went. Kind of exposes Putin’s nonsense about war with the US/NATO. The fact they did that and Russia sat back and kept quiet like the naughty child they are shows that they know full well what war with NATO/US means.

Add to that and the ‘satan missile’ test that went wonky, (how could it have gone any other way?), the real question has to be why is NATO holding back?

If Russia is dissolved, will there still be a role for NATO?
 
Finland.

Didn’t Russia get pwned quite badly there previously?



Find it quite interesting that the US informed Russia of Bidens’s visit a few days before he went. Kind of exposes Putin’s nonsense about war with the US/NATO. The fact they did that and Russia sat back and kept quiet like the naughty child they are shows that they know full well what war with NATO/US means.

Add to that and the ‘satan missile’ test that went wonky, (how could it have gone any other way?), the real question has to be why is NATO holding back?

If Russia is dissolved, will there still be a role for NATO?

It’ll be staring down China
 
very interesting article by anatol lieven - in the guardian of all places - For years, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. What made him finally snap in 2022? | Anatol Lieven
It is an interesting article, but it omits to mention that the cooling of European governments towards cooperation with Russia came in the context of Russia invading Georgia, poisoning the President of Ukraine, shooting opposition politicians, making a London hotel bar radioactive and so on. It's not as if Merkel and co just suddenly got bored.
 
It’ll be staring down China


Taiwan is a red herring, Xi doesn’t want to dominate via war, he wants to do it via the Benjamins, he’s done pretty well but you don’t pull a higher level third world nation into global economic #1 in a generation or two. Personally don’t see China as a threat, militarily the US and their allies will stomp any expansionist planes of theirs for the foreseeable. But that doesn’t seem to be their way, with a sixth of the global population they are now open and they’re on the world stage. They are right, the Cold War mentality needs to end .
 
How long can they keep sending people into the meat grinder before they mutiny?

Edit- Also if that is really the plan it's a bad one. Russia doesn't have unlimited human resources, it has an ageing and shrinking population, and up to a million Russians have fled the country since the war in addition to nearly 150,000 killed. It isn't China or India or even the US, it is barely in the top 10 countries by population and is only a little more populous than Mexico and Japan. Throwing away significantly more young lives than they have already is going to seal Russia's fate as an irrelevance far more than Ukraine joining NATO would.
A lot of the people they’ve been throwing at the front are anything but young, they’ll accept volunteers up to the age of 60 iirc, and we’ve all seen the pictures of this. Younger people are disproportionately more likely to have fled the country, the young, IT-savvy who’ve bypassed the censorship and have more liberal opinions aren’t hanging about.

One issue they’ve faced is that many of their more capable troops were wiped out in the initial invasion, the self-regarding elite VDV (paras equivalent) took massive casualties. This has led to a skills gap, and lack of experienced people to train new recruits - also why they’ve been sending many to Belarus for training (triggering rumours of an invasion from there). Plus the higher echelons of the military are often promoted there through nepotism and corruption rather than through ability.
 
It is an interesting article, but it omits to mention that the cooling of European governments towards cooperation with Russia came in the context of Russia invading Georgia, poisoning the President of Ukraine, shooting opposition politicians, making a London hotel bar radioactive and so on. It's not as if Merkel and co just suddenly got bored.
Putin got away with all that tho, the thing that shut down cooperation happened a year ago
 
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from the guardian article i link to above. which doesn't make it seem such a batshit idea after all, the bit about the us-ukraine strategic partnership
That partnership is November 2021, when Russia’s build-up for invasion was well underway. It was likely more a reactive partnership stemming what was going on over the border than some long-planned expansionist scheme.
 
That partnership is November 2021, when Russia’s build-up for invasion was well underway. It was likely more a reactive partnership stemming what was going on over the border than some long-planned expansionist scheme.
I don't suppose these partnerships are just drawn up overnight, there must have been rather a tail before the thing was signed
 
Ukraine has a ten point 'peace treaty', there's now the Chinese initiative. Do we know of any other countries that have put forward a peace plan?
 
Ukraine has a ten point 'peace treaty', there's now the Chinese initiative. Do we know of any other countries that have put forward a peace plan?

I imagine various governments are doing it just to look relevant - or for a bet...

Ukraine would probably accept the 'breakaway' (invaded) republics, and Crimea, being under UN governance but within the Ukrainian nation, but only if the PK/PE forces under that UN administration included a significant proportion from NATO countries, and with Ukraine joining both the EU and NATO, with NATO forces being stationed in Ukraine.

That's my hunch of the fudge they'd be likely to accept - there'd probably be a little bit of wiggle room about very small slices of territory going to Russia proper, but I'm talking about a village here and a village there.

Russia? No idea. They'd probably say that they'd keep the subsumed republics and Crimea as Russia proper, Ukraine from the Dneipr to the Ru border as a UN protectorate staffed by Russians, and western Ukraine as a 'sovereign' state that was constitutionally neutral by treaty (think Austria post WW2), but no EU membership, limits on size of its armed forces etc...

For the Russians, that wouldn't be their acceptable end state, it would simply be a pause line - when everyone gets bored, and they've rebuilt their army, they'd simply invade once again.
 

Russia cuts oil supplies to Poland, says oil firm

Poland’s largest oil company, PKN Orlen, has stopped receiving oil via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, its chief executive officer, Daniel Obajtek, has said.
 
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