Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Flavour]

I have a terrible feeling that we may see a nuclear attack on Kherson in the next few weeks. I think the Russians will abandon the city before they do it, but blame it on Ukraine as re-draw the chronology.

Paranoia level = medium-high

 

[kebabking]

I have a terrible feeling that we may see a nuclear attack on Kherson in the next few weeks. I think the Russians will abandon the city before they do it, but blame it on Ukraine as re-draw the chronology.

Paranoia level = medium-high

It's not paranoia.

I fully expect a nuclear/radiological (but probably nuclear) detonation on Ukrainian soil. i would now be more surprised if there wasn't one than if there was.

50/50 a pitifully bad attempt at a false-flag, or an open state attack - false-flag would tend towards radiological, open state would tend towards nuclear.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Dirty bomb mebbes. A departing fuck you as they make Kherson uninhabitable for a while.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

It's not paranoia.

I fully expect a nuclear/radiological (but probably nuclear) detonation on Ukrainian soil. i would now be more surprised if there wasn't one than if there was.

50/50 a pitifully bad attempt at a false-flag, or an open state attack - false-flag would tend towards radiological, open state would tend towards nuclear.

Isn't that NATOs line after which they get fully involved. A how will the Russians react? Its pretty terrifying.

 

[Flavour]

Everyone knows the Ukrainian State would not (and cannot, as they don't have nukes) use nuclear weapons on their soil, but the Russian State has gone far beyond caring what anyone else thinks or cares vis-a-vis "the narrative"

 

[kebabking]

Isn't that NATOs line after which they get fully involved. A how will the Russians react? Its pretty terrifying.

It's straight forward Russian, as well as Putin, exceptionalism. He thinks he can always escalate further than the other guy because eventually the other guy will cave when faced with the true might, power, and stoicism of Mother Russia/Putin.

If you study his political history, when faced with a shit position, he almost always escalates and it usually serves him well.

He takes the view that ther people's red lines are just guidelines, his are rock solid - and in truth, the west has fed him that diet over the lest 20 years.

 

[jimbarkanoodle]

i guess that's why they have tried to clear the civilians out of the city, it wont look quite as bad to the rest of the world when they do it if its mostly enemy soldiers that get killed.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I did read recently that Moscow has invited remaining male residents if Donbas ( I think ) to join the militia if they want to stay in the region. Invited. That’s a nice guesture

 

[Pickman's model]

i guess that's why they have tried to clear the civilians out of the city, it wont look quite as bad to the rest of the world when they do it if its mostly enemy soldiers that get killed.

Tbh it's more likely to me they've done it so there are fewer people telling the Ukrainians where the defences and prepared positions are

 

[seventh bullet]

A 'tankie'? Is that an acronym for something?

As a person with Jewish heritage, I've never 'massively enjoyed' anti Semitism.

Tankie as used in the present has been revived by social media-dwelling youths to handily identify the resurgent Marxism-Leninism/Stalinism of their contemporaries. Like others have posted, it derives from defenders of Soviet imperialism, starting with the Hungarian intervention to crush the uprising of 1956, and extends to the crude anti-imperialism of the mid-late twentieth century.

 

[Ming]

I presume NATO’s spy satellites are carefully monitoring RU’s nukes?

 

[Ming]

Seems to be a lot of normalizing of the use of nukes in the media currently. ‘Oh they're only tactical‘. I think when you cross the psychological bridge from the unthinkable it’s impossible to go back. You’ve opened the box.

 

[A380]

What do the Chinese do if Putin uses nukes? They have perhaps even more reason not to want that genie out of the bottle than the West given their reliance on large scale armies.

 

[Ming]

What do the Chinese do if Putin uses nukes? They have perhaps even more reason not to want that genie out of the bottle than the West given their reliance on large scale armies.

Scary times bro. Hopefully they won’t blow our world up.

I read a quote from William Shatner about when he went up to space (ish) in Bezos’ cockrocket. Remember he was tearful when he came down (as I’m sure we all would be)? He said it was partly because all he saw was was death. Cold space. No life. I think every fucking politician with their hands on our future should be forced to make that journey so they understand how rare our planet is.

eta:

 

[StoneRoad]

Problem is the nuclear deterrent [MAD] requires the command / political system to be rational, even at the "tactical" scale.

Putin is demonstrating that he is not rational by our / any normal standards.
and that worries me.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Putin is demonstrating that he is not rational by our / any normal standards.
and that worries me.

Rest assured most people who know a bit about him say he is rational. That doesn’t mean he’s not amoral or a massive cunt tho.

 

[Pickman's model]

Problem is the nuclear deterrent [MAD] requires the command / political system to be rational, even at the "tactical" scale.

Putin is demonstrating that he is not rational by our / any normal standards.
and that worries me.

it's weird how frequently people are othered as 'irrational' when is really meant is we don't understand the reasons for their decisions.

 

[existentialist]

it's weird how frequently people are othered as 'irrational' when is really meant is we don't understand the reasons for their decisions.

It's weird how people so often other themselves as "irrational" (or stupid/ridiculous) when they don't understand the reasons for their OWN decisions...

 

[Rimbaud]

It's not paranoia.

I fully expect a nuclear/radiological (but probably nuclear) detonation on Ukrainian soil. i would now be more surprised if there wasn't one than if there was.

50/50 a pitifully bad attempt at a false-flag, or an open state attack - false-flag would tend towards radiological, open state would tend towards nuclear.

False flag. It doesn't matter if it isn't particularly convincing, as long as the narrative is out there they can sow some degree of confusion and doubt and provide handy excuses for those who would support them regardless.

 

[Rimbaud]

What do the Chinese do if Putin uses nukes? They have perhaps even more reason not to want that genie out of the bottle than the West given their reliance on large scale armies.

Let's presume Russia makes a lame attempt at a false flag dirty bomb or tactical nuke.

The Chinese government will officially play neutral and say "let's wait for the facts to emerge" while unofficially pumping out astro-turfed conspiracy theories that Ukraine did it all over Chinese social-media.

 

[A380]

Let's presume Russia makes a lame attempt at a false flag dirty bomb or tactical nuke.

The Chinese government will officially play neutral and say "let's wait for the facts to emerge" while unofficially pumping out astro-turfed conspiracy theories that Ukraine did it all over Chinese social-media.

In public perhaps. But once the the nuclear genie is out of the bottle, in that use of a tactical weapon has happened, then any beach landing in Taiwan becomes much much harder (and its already difficult - or will be once the PLA Navy have build enough sealift capacity, its probably impossible until the ships are commissioned in a few years). A beach landing site being almost designed as a perfect target for a battlefield weapon, or which the Americans have loads, probably conveniently some on carriers.

The Chinese are probably already switching to an economic & political lead strategy for getting Taiwan 'back', In a world where tactical nuclear weapons are in play any military plan would move from very difficult to almost impossible.

 

[Rimbaud]

In public perhaps. But once the the nuclear genie is out of the bottle, in that use of a tactical weapon has happened, then any beach landing in Taiwan becomes much much harder (and its already difficult - or will be once the PLA Navy have build enough sealift capacity). A beach landing site being almost designed as a perfect target for a battlefield weapon, or which the Americans have loads, probably conveniently some on carriers.

Note to the US - a nuclear war can be won by rivals - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

You may find it slightly hair raising to learn that China's Global Times newspaper is publishing rticles about how a nuclear war can be won.

 

[teuchter]

Progress on reclaiming territory seems to have slowed a lot in the past 2-3 weeks, sadly, as far as I can see.

 

[maomao]

Note to the US - a nuclear war can be won by rivals - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

You may find it slightly hair raising to learn that China's Global Times newspaper is publishing rticles about how a nuclear war can be won.

They appear to be describing a new type of weapon, that is a nuclear missile that remains in orbit until needed. Do we know if these exist or not?

 

[TopCat]

Isn’t it more likely that the Russians are digging in and preparing to defend Kherson by conventional means?

 

[Rimbaud]

They appear to be describing a new type of weapon, that is a nuclear missile that remains in orbit until needed. Do we know if these exist or not?

I've no idea.

 

[A380]

They appear to be describing a new type of weapon, that is a nuclear missile that remains in orbit until needed. Do we know if these exist or not?

Could have been built anytime since the 50s banned by treaty. Not sure the Chinese would want to change that given the relative experience of them in space v the US.

 

[gosub]

Note to the US - a nuclear war can be won by rivals - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

You may find it slightly hair raising to learn that China's Global Times newspaper is publishing rticles about how a nuclear war can be won.

Who Is Franz Gayl? Pentagon Worker Takes Heat for Op-Eds in Chinese Media

"If we don't talk about this now, we are going to sleepwalk into this conflict," Gayl said of a potential military action between the U.S. and China.

www.newsweek.com

Thought it was Dr R North whom addressed issue of lack of IED vehichle protection in Iraq

 

[not-bono-ever]

Isn’t it more likely that the Russians are digging in and preparing to defend Kherson by conventional means?

They don’t have much choice if they want to save face I suppose. It’s going to be Khersongrad . Grim

 

[Rimbaud]

Who Is Franz Gayl? Pentagon Worker Takes Heat for Op-Eds in Chinese Media

"If we don't talk about this now, we are going to sleepwalk into this conflict," Gayl said of a potential military action between the U.S. and China.

www.newsweek.com

Thought it was Dr R North whom addressed issue of lack of IED vehichle protection in Iraq

There's a bit of a record of Chinese propaganda just making up imaginary foreigners.

E.g. Swiss Biologist "Wilson Edwards".

Fictitious Swiss scientist entangles China’s state media

Chinese state media outlets scrub quotes about the pandemic after Switzerland says person does not exist..

www.aljazeera.com