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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

JimW said:
Meduza has seen a Kremlin poll that says 30% of Russians want the war to end now versus 57% in favour of continuing: 30 percent of Russians say they want the war to end immediately What the latest Kremlin-commissioned opinion poll reveals about domestic support for the war — Meduza Age splits unsurprisingly put those more likely to be sent to fight it as most opposed but even that headline figure is pretty solid given the climate and information availability, seems to me. Wonder how much that will affect policy if at all.
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maybe unsurprisingly, the older non urban sample are the most bullish for bother by the look of that. Seems to be a fashionable thang for boomers now
 
Food terrorism - I think she's right.

Hanna Liubakova on twitter:

"This is food terrorism. Due to the Russian invasion, wheat fields are burning. The Russian military deliberately causes fires and do not allow them to be extinguished, Ukrainians say. Despite shelling and mining, local farmers are trying to carry out field work"
 
The39thStep said:
Update on the other two Brits who joined Azov from the Georgian Division . Tony Giddings ( first photo above next to Aslin) is now MIA last seen in Mariupol John Harding ( first photo above last man on the right ) was last seen on a bus being evacuated from Avostal but surprisingly no further news despite the fact that would be linked with Pinner and Aslin


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update on Harding. He is a prisoner in the DPR,, he was interviewed on Russian news.
 
Question for the military people: Ukraine says it can win the war if they get enough long range weapons. They’ve currently got 8-ish HIMARS but they’ve said they need a hundred. Also Western artillery pieces out range Russian ones And are much more accurate. And Ukraine has made it clear they won’t win without these weapons in much bigger numbers.

So why isn’t the West giving them? Is it supply change delays in manufacturing and transportation, training of Ukrainian troops taking too long or what? Ukraine is a big country with lots of potential troops fighting on home territory. They could win. But fighting the Russian artillery at over their range is key right?

Why aren't we giving them all the shit we have now? It’s unlikely we‘ll have to deal with a second front.

ed:sp
 
Ming said:
Question for the military people: Ukraine says it can win the war if they get enough long range weapons. They’ve currently got 8-ish HIMARS but they’ve said they need a hundred. Also Western artillery pieces out range Russian ones And are much more accurate. And Ukraine has made it clear they won’t win without these weapons in much bigger numbers.

So why isn’t the West giving them? Is it supply change delays in manufacturing and transportation, training of Ukrainian troops taking too long or what? Ukraine is a big country with lots of potential troops fighting on home territory. They could win. But fighting the Russian artillery at over their range is key right?

Why aren't we giving them all the shit we have now? It’s unlikely we‘ll have to deal with a second front.

ed:sp
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The States is wary of escalating things too much, but there's also the case that there simply isn't enough ammunition to feed 100 Himars in active use. The US strategy is to gain air superiority and hit things with JDAMs - they're not well equipped for this sort of battle.
 
8ball said:
Is there some agreed limit to the number of weapons this would be? :confused:
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No. That's the problem.

One one side of the line the West is selling weapons to an ally, completely standard and hard for Russia to argue with. The other side of the line the West is fighting the war using Ukrainians to operate their weapon systems.

It's down to guesswork/judgement where that line is and Russia and the West may take different views about it. The decision has been taken in the West not to cross the line, as it risks escalating things and kicking off WW3. With Russia already publicly claiming (although showing no sign of actually believing) that the line has already been crossed, the West is being cautious about what they give to Ukraine.
 
Supplying of longer range weapons used as justification for Russia occupying more of Ukraine.

Ukraine war: Russia's Lavrov says ready to expand war aims​


Russia's military focus in Ukraine is no longer "only" the east of the country, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said. In an interview with Russian state media, he implied Moscow's strategy had changed after the West supplied Ukraine with longer-range weapons. Russia would now have to push Ukrainian forces further from the front line to ensure its own security, he explained.
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andysays said:
Supplying of longer range weapons used as justification for Russia occupying more of Ukraine.

Ukraine war: Russia's Lavrov says ready to expand war aims​

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Russian nationalists, like Girkin, have been arguing for a while that Russia should drop the 'special operation' language and expand its war aims.

Girkin calls for the reunification of the entire territory of “Novorossiya” (including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts as well as Kryvyi Rih) with the Russian Federation and the creation of a Malorossiya state (all of Ukraine up to the Polish border).

Other nationalist have been similarly critical of the Kremlin's limited war aims of 'liberating' the Donbas region. Their voices have been reaching a crescendo in recent days.

Putin has to balance placating these nationalist demands with the Russian population's willingness to accept the full mobilisation it'd require.

If Lavrov is now talking about expanding the war aims it's more likely to be in response to nationalist demands than the West providing a handful of long range missile systems a few weeks ago.
 
David Clapson said:
Why are people attaching any importance to what Russia says about escalation? If you believe anything Russia says you're living in a parallel universe. Whatever Russia does or doesn't do, it will be for their own reasons, and have nothing to do with a few more HIMARS here or there.
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Yeah, I have a feeling that if they stop making any progress at all, or if ground gets re-taken significantly, they might start just claiming that the amount of weapons coming in has increased.
 
David Clapson said:
Why are people attaching any importance to what Russia says about escalation? If you believe anything Russia says you're living in a parallel universe. Whatever Russia does or doesn't do, it will be for their own reasons, and have nothing to do with a few more HIMARS here or there.
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Fuck me that's a stupid post. So for you the only thing about Russia's statements is they're false. Like the only reason to attach importance is verity. But what they say is important, if you want to understand their thinking. Clearly you think that wholly unimportant
 
David Clapson said:
Why are people attaching any importance to what Russia says about escalation? If you believe anything Russia says you're living in a parallel universe. Whatever Russia does or doesn't do, it will be for their own reasons, and have nothing to do with a few more HIMARS here or there.
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FWIW, I think it is rather useful, and germane to this thread, to be hearing what Russia's responses to developments are.
 
Ming said:
Question for the military people: Ukraine says it can win the war if they get enough long range weapons. They’ve currently got 8-ish HIMARS but they’ve said they need a hundred. Also Western artillery pieces out range Russian ones And are much more accurate. And Ukraine has made it clear they won’t win without these weapons in much bigger numbers.

So why isn’t the West giving them? Is it supply change delays in manufacturing and transportation, training of Ukrainian troops taking too long or what? Ukraine is a big country with lots of potential troops fighting on home territory. They could win. But fighting the Russian artillery at over their range is key right?

Why aren't we giving them all the shit we have now? It’s unlikely we‘ll have to deal with a second front.

ed:sp
Click to expand...
The US says that Ukraine has 12 HIMARS. Soon they'll have 16 - another four were announced a few hours ago U.S. to send four more HIMARS to Ukraine Some of the 12 are probably reserved for training, so maybe your figure of 8 is for the ones which are in use on the front line? Where did you read it?

When you say "we" what you really mean is "Biden". The US has the biggest stocks of HIMARS and the HIMARS factories. Biden's power is limited. The Republicans oppose him on pretty much everything, just to see him fail. It doesn't matter that a Ukraine victory would be good for the world. All the Republicans care about is beating the Democrats in 2024. It suits them to play to the MAGA crowd who say "Europe should sort out its own problems, all we care about is petrol prices". It suits them to frighten TV viewers by parroting Putin and Lavrov's propaganda about red lines and nukes. That's how fucked up America is these days. That's why the approval and delivery of HIMARS for Ukraine has been so agonisingly slow. A lot of Ukrainian lives could have been saved if the 16 systems had been approved 3 months ago.

And now Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Australia want to buy HIMARS. But there aren't huge stocks of launchers and ammunition in warehouses. They're also quite expensive - about $1.5m per launcher, plus a six figure price for every single missile (I think - there are many different types - kebabking probably knows the prices of the types which Ukraine is getting.) So it's hard to see how the 16 launchers could grow to 100.
 
David Clapson said:
The US says that Ukraine has 12 HIMARS. Soon they'll have 16 - another four were announced a few hours ago U.S. to send four more HIMARS to Ukraine Some of the 12 are probably reserved for training, so maybe your figure of 8 is for the ones which are in use on the front line? Where did you read it?

When you say "we" what you really mean is "Biden". The US has the biggest stocks of HIMARS and the HIMARS factories. Biden's power is limited. The Republicans oppose him on pretty much everything, just to see him fail. It doesn't matter that a Ukraine victory would be good for the world. All the Republicans care about is beating the Democrats in 2024. It suits them to play to the MAGA crowd who say "Europe should sort out its own problems, all we care about is petrol prices". It suits them to frighten TV viewers by parroting Putin and Lavrov's propaganda about red lines and nukes. That's how fucked up America is these days. That's why the approval and delivery of HIMARS for Ukraine has been so agonisingly slow. A lot of Ukrainian lives could have been saved if the 16 systems had been approved 3 months ago.

And now Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Australia want to buy HIMARS. But there aren't huge stocks of launchers and ammunition in warehouses. They're also quite expensive - about $1.5m per launcher, plus a six figure price for every single missile (I think - there are many different types - kebabking probably knows the prices of the types which Ukraine is getting.) So it's hard to see how the 16 launchers could grow to 100.
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Am I right that the HIMARS is basically artillery that can shoot further than what the Russians currently have (negating their main current advantage)?
 
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