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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

The absence of evidence that RU are destroying weapons dumps or high value military targets in a country with no air defence says to me they are doing that successfully.
In the absence of evidence I think it better to not immediately jump to conclusions. Or to jump to conclusions more slowly for that matter.
 
Not enough and I'm sure if they were falling out of the sky and being towed away by tractors we'd know about it.
Happened a fair bit early on.. Lobby missiles from Belarus and ships in the black sea tends to indicate ongoing concern that ut still could
 
the americans have done, time and again, 1, probably 2, certainly 3 and haven't yet had the opportunity for four and five. so let's not hold this up as the russians are uniquely vicious or nasty, people our government cuddles up to would do and have done much the same

Indeed not. His assertion that bombing a shopping centre is a ridiculous act in a war, given all that we've learned about from various conflicts, not least the one we're focussed on, is a bit daft.
 
The absence of evidence that RU are destroying weapons dumps or high value military targets in a country with no air defence says to me they are doing that successfully.

I feel almost privileged to see someone genuinely wielding this kind of absence of evidence argument in the wild. I mean I suppose you see the god-botherers and conspiracists dropping this kind of shit in youtube comments, but it's different seeing it here. Thanks.
 
I feel almost privileged to see someone genuinely wielding this kind of absence of evidence argument in the wild. I mean I suppose you see the god-botherers and conspiracists dropping this kind of shit in youtube comments, but it's different seeing it here. Thanks.
You're need for evidence reflects your insecurity.
 
I'm fully aware that there's plenty of shit getting destroyed and going unreported, of course there is - you don't need bizarre contortions like arguments from absence of evidence to get there.
 
Is it fuck. Unless some Russian state propaganda.
You can look it up on Google Maps:
Screenshot_20220628-175450_Maps.jpg

The white square building at the bottom is the shopping center that was destroyed. North of it is quite clearly a factory labeled 'zavod shlyakhovykh mashyn', which Google translate tells means 'plant of road machines'.

Which do you think was the most likely target for a Russian missile strike? How much do you trust the accuracy of Russian missiles?
 
You can look it up on Google Maps:
View attachment 329397

The white square building at the bottom is the shopping center that was destroyed. North of it is quite clearly a factory labeled 'zavod shlyakhovykh mashyn', which Google translate tells means 'plant of road machines'.

Which do you think was the most likely target for a Russian missile strike? How much do you trust the accuracy of Russian missiles?
Going on their history I'd say the civilian area was the more likely target, sadly. They've shown their ruthlessness many, many times. It's clear they're trying to intimidate and wear down morale.
 
You can look it up on Google Maps:


The white square building at the bottom is the shopping center that was destroyed. North of it is quite clearly a factory labeled 'zavod shlyakhovykh mashyn', which Google translate tells means 'plant of road machines'.

Which do you think was the most likely target for a Russian missile strike? How much do you trust the accuracy of Russian missiles?
I would be surprised if they're really hitting the things they're aiming for. I'd be surprised if most of the time they're aiming for anything much at all, just the city would do I suppose.
 
you say that and indeed it seems difficult for ukraine to counter the russians without getting bigger and better guns. but i'd have thought (and i'm sure kebabking could comment usefully on this) that it's the sort of thing light infantry or special forces might be able to deal with, something - say - the parachute regiment from the british army or the rangers from the american might be tasked with (or the sas or delta force, i don't know). every time you see images of artillery in this war you don't see a guarding force, and i wonder how easy it would be to flank them, to hold them in place with something like a drone strike, while units of infantry either debus and assault or having worked their way round the back take out the gun crews and destroy at least some of the guns.

Apologies for the lack of a timeous response...

Attacking enemy artillery is a classic cavalry Manoeuvre, and has been practiced since Crecy. However, it requires a force which is highly mobile, and a gap to move through.

The Ukrainians have done some small scale raiding of this nature, but it has a limited effect, and uses a huge amount of precious resource - but it's long been established (American civil war, and certainly WWI) that the best way to kill artillery is with more artillery. The profusion of airborne ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting and Reconnaissance) assets means that tracking artillery, and the vast logistics train that is required to keep the guns firing, is relatively easy - so the Ukrainians have taken a three pronged approach based on their ISTAR and weapons capabilities:

Self-Propelled Guns with unguided, but still pretty accurate, 155mm fires to disrupt Ru gunlines, and SPG 155mm guided fires to attack specific targets within the Ru gunlines - Bty/Regt HQ's, & ammunition stockpiles. Usually in the same attack - western guns are more accurate, and have longer range than Ru guns, and with guided ammunition they might only have to use half a dozen guided shells to disable a whole Battery (4 - 10 guns) by destroying it's C2 and available ammunition.

The arrival of GMLRS has allowed them to attack Ru Operational level ammunition dumps - the munitions arrive by train, from Russia, are unloaded, stored, and them moved by truck to the gunlines. They can be 40-70km behind the front lines, and are huge - easily a mile across, one I saw was 12 miles long, with hundreds of thousands (millions) of artillery shells and other ammunition. Helpfully they tend to put their big fuel dumps next to them...

Marrying ISTAR and deep fires has allowed the Ukr to cripple Ru artillery in some areas, and for limited periods of time - a HIMARS strike on a forward logistics hub kept 30+ miles of Ru guns silent for 3 days by destroying it's entire ammunition stock.

The problem Ukr has is one of scale: the Ru are an army that has long believed that artillery wins wars, and it spends it's budget accordingly. It's artillery forces are vast, and it's war stocks of ammunition are beyond measure.

However, Ukr has definitely hit the right policy - stop the ammunition getting to the guns: one is worthless without the other, and the logistics of keeping the guns supplied are easy to see, vulnerable, and don't move. Just as Russia has moved to a doctrine of grinding out a relentless trickle of results by the use of vast firepower, Ukr has settled on a doctrine of grinding out a result by interdiction of fuel and ammunition. It will take several months, and will require a huge surge in ammunition and modern guns from the west, but it will probably work in (eventually) massively degrading the Ru Armys main combat arm.

Less dashing perhaps, but methodical.
 
Apologies for the lack of a timeous response...

Attacking enemy artillery is a classic cavalry Manoeuvre, and has been practiced since Crecy. However, it requires a force which is highly mobile, and a gap to move through.

The Ukrainians have done some small scale raiding of this nature, but it has a limited effect, and uses a huge amount of precious resource - but it's long been established (American civil war, and certainly WWI) that the best way to kill artillery is with more artillery. The profusion of airborne ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting and Reconnaissance) assets means that tracking artillery, and the vast logistics train that is required to keep the guns firing, is relatively easy - so the Ukrainians have taken a three pronged approach based on their ISTAR and weapons capabilities:

Self-Propelled Guns with unguided, but still pretty accurate, 155mm fires to disrupt Ru gunlines, and SPG 155mm guided fires to attack specific targets within the Ru gunlines - Bty/Regt HQ's, & ammunition stockpiles. Usually in the same attack - western guns are more accurate, and have longer range than Ru guns, and with guided ammunition they might only have to use half a dozen guided shells to disable a whole Battery (4 - 10 guns) by destroying it's C2 and available ammunition.

The arrival of GMLRS has allowed them to attack Ru Operational level ammunition dumps - the munitions arrive by train, from Russia, are unloaded, stored, and them moved by truck to the gunlines. They can be 40-70km behind the front lines, and are huge - easily a mile across, one I saw was 12 miles long, with hundreds of thousands (millions) of artillery shells and other ammunition. Helpfully they tend to put their big fuel dumps next to them...

Marrying ISTAR and deep fires has allowed the Ukr to cripple Ru artillery in some areas, and for limited periods of time - a HIMARS strike on a forward logistics hub kept 30+ miles of Ru guns silent for 3 days by destroying it's entire ammunition stock.

The problem Ukr has is one of scale: the Ru are an army that has long believed that artillery wins wars, and it spends it's budget accordingly. It's artillery forces are vast, and it's war stocks of ammunition are beyond measure.

However, Ukr has definitely hit the right policy - stop the ammunition getting to the guns: one is worthless without the other, and the logistics of keeping the guns supplied are easy to see, vulnerable, and don't move. Just as Russia has moved to a doctrine of grinding out a relentless trickle of results by the use of vast firepower, Ukr has settled on a doctrine of grinding out a result by interdiction of fuel and ammunition. It will take several months, and will require a huge surge in ammunition and modern guns from the west, but it will probably work in (eventually) massively degrading the Ru Armys main combat arm.

Less dashing perhaps, but methodical.

enemy artillery was attacked at Crecy?
 
Apologies for the lack of a timeous response...

Attacking enemy artillery is a classic cavalry Manoeuvre, and has been practiced since Crecy. However, it requires a force which is highly mobile, and a gap to move through.

The Ukrainians have done some small scale raiding of this nature, but it has a limited effect, and uses a huge amount of precious resource - but it's long been established (American civil war, and certainly WWI) that the best way to kill artillery is with more artillery. The profusion of airborne ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting and Reconnaissance) assets means that tracking artillery, and the vast logistics train that is required to keep the guns firing, is relatively easy - so the Ukrainians have taken a three pronged approach based on their ISTAR and weapons capabilities:

Self-Propelled Guns with unguided, but still pretty accurate, 155mm fires to disrupt Ru gunlines, and SPG 155mm guided fires to attack specific targets within the Ru gunlines - Bty/Regt HQ's, & ammunition stockpiles. Usually in the same attack - western guns are more accurate, and have longer range than Ru guns, and with guided ammunition they might only have to use half a dozen guided shells to disable a whole Battery (4 - 10 guns) by destroying it's C2 and available ammunition.

The arrival of GMLRS has allowed them to attack Ru Operational level ammunition dumps - the munitions arrive by train, from Russia, are unloaded, stored, and them moved by truck to the gunlines. They can be 40-70km behind the front lines, and are huge - easily a mile across, one I saw was 12 miles long, with hundreds of thousands (millions) of artillery shells and other ammunition. Helpfully they tend to put their big fuel dumps next to them...

Marrying ISTAR and deep fires has allowed the Ukr to cripple Ru artillery in some areas, and for limited periods of time - a HIMARS strike on a forward logistics hub kept 30+ miles of Ru guns silent for 3 days by destroying it's entire ammunition stock.

The problem Ukr has is one of scale: the Ru are an army that has long believed that artillery wins wars, and it spends it's budget accordingly. It's artillery forces are vast, and it's war stocks of ammunition are beyond measure.

However, Ukr has definitely hit the right policy - stop the ammunition getting to the guns: one is worthless without the other, and the logistics of keeping the guns supplied are easy to see, vulnerable, and don't move. Just as Russia has moved to a doctrine of grinding out a relentless trickle of results by the use of vast firepower, Ukr has settled on a doctrine of grinding out a result by interdiction of fuel and ammunition. It will take several months, and will require a huge surge in ammunition and modern guns from the west, but it will probably work in (eventually) massively degrading the Ru Armys main combat arm.

Less dashing perhaps, but methodical.

That's what I was going to say.
 
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