Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

Biden, the twat, basically gave Putin the green light for a 'minor incursion' yesterday and is now back peddling.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that he has made clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that any Russian movement into Ukraine would be considered an invasion, after he earlier suggested allies were split over how to react to any "minor incursion."

"I have been absolutely clear with President Putin, he has no misunderstanding. If any, any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border that is an invasion," Biden told reporters at the White House.

Biden says any Russian movement into Ukraine will be considered invasion

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that he has made clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that any Russian movement into Ukraine would be considered an invasion, after he earlier suggested allies were split over how to react to any "minor incursion."

www.reuters.com

 

[splonkydoo]

Interesting....

Mark Krutov (@kromark) Tweeted: Thread: few quick takes from our latest investigation on Russian military buildup near Ukraine. We chatted with several wifes/mothers/soldiers on the trains – but didn't pretend to change our identity. Even after learning we are journalists, some people continued to chat.

Radio Free Europe lol, hardly impartial.

 

[kebabking]

Yup, Biden has badly misspoken there.

In other news, the US has massively circumvented its own processes to allow Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia to transfer anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine (they are US produced, so like all arms exports, the US has to agree before they can be passed on), and the Czech Republic has given them a load of Artillery shells from their own stocks.

The UK airlift of NLAWS anti-tank weapons has passed 2,000 in two days...

 

[kebabking]

Radio Free Europe lol, hardly impartial.

Are you saying they are wrong?

 

[splonkydoo]

Are you saying they are wrong?

I am saying that they are directly funded by the US government ($22m anually). RFE has been a well known tool of US foreign policy for almost 8 decades now.

If Russia Today had done a similar report, replete with anonymised images, would you treat it as trustworthy?

 

[kebabking]

I am saying that they are directly funded by the US government ($22m anually). RFE has been a well known tool of US foreign policy for almost 8 decades now.

If Russia Today had done a similar report, replete with anonymised images, would you treat it as trustworthy?

The fundamental difference between them is that someone will be checking RFE's reports, and using OSINT, deciding if they are true/probably true/plausible/total bollocks, and - most importantly - blabbing about it where it can be seen.

If RTE talk shite, the rebuttal won't be seen in Russia...

 

[NoXion]

If RTE talk shite, the rebuttal won't be seen in Russia...

Probably because they're Irish.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Probably because they're Irish.

I spotted that typo, but it was clear it should have been RFE.

 

[splonkydoo]

The fundamental difference between them is that someone will be checking RFE's reports, and using OSINT, deciding if they are true/probably true/plausible/total bollocks, and - most importantly - blabbing about it where it can be seen.

If RTE talk shite, the rebuttal won't be seen in Russia...

So you are in agreement with me then that this report may be untrustworthy, and is provided by a group that are not a neutral actor. The information given in its current state is flimsy and wouldn't have been reported by a serious independent news organisation.

There are many strategies of censorship and ways to either mislead or manufacture consent around a given issue. Pumping the airwaves with dis/misinformation is one, despite the ability (by whom?) to rebutt it. I don't recall rebuttals doing much in the way of preventing the Iraq war at the time, but I do remember many misleading reports which were aimed at priming the general public.

Coincidentally, the current director of RFE served under the Bush administrations Secretary of Defense from 2005- 2009, amongst an otherwise interesting résumé. Jamie Fly

 

[splonkydoo]

I spotted that typo, but it was clear it should have been RFE.

I thought they meant RT tbh.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I thought they meant RT tbh.

On reflection, I think you could be right.

I think it's fair accept it certainly wasn't meant to poor old RTE.

 

[gosub]

'They're Going To Ukraine': Social Media Chatter Sheds Light On Russia's Military Mobilization

Dozens of social media posts show a trail of military personnel and units being shipped across Russia to regions near Ukraine, an investigation by RFE/RL's Russian Service has found, adding to evidence of a buildup that Western officials fear is a prelude to a major new offensive.

www.rferl.org

 

[Sprocket.]

Ukraine is safe, Truss has spoken.

Russia-Ukraine tensions: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urges Putin to step back Russia-Ukraine tensions: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urges Putin to step back

 

[steeplejack]

Ukraine is safe, Truss has spoken.

Russia-Ukraine tensions: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urges Putin to step back Russia-Ukraine tensions: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urges Putin to step back

Vladimir Putin looks up from Komsomolskaya Pravda and, with a puzzled face, says "Who?"

 

[Raheem]

"OK, Sergei, I'm going to need real-time data on the pork markets."

 

[Pickman's model]

Vladimir Putin looks up from Komsomolskaya Pravda and, with a puzzled face, says "Who?"

in fact he turned to russian foreign minister sergey lavrov and said 'i've read her book about punctuation'

 

[Sprocket.]

Vladimir Putin looks up from Komsomolskaya Pravda and, with a puzzled face, says "Who?"

That Pork woman said Igor Sechin!

 

[not-bono-ever]

Do we have any diplomatic political heavyweights left in the uk or are they all just cunts ? No one comes to mind

 

[RileyOBlimey]

'They're Going To Ukraine': Social Media Chatter Sheds Light On Russia's Military Mobilization

Dozens of social media posts show a trail of military personnel and units being shipped across Russia to regions near Ukraine, an investigation by RFE/RL's Russian Service has found, adding to evidence of a buildup that Western officials fear is a prelude to a major new offensive.

www.rferl.org

This is probably the US wanting people in Europe to think Putin is going to invade when their fairly sure Putin isn’t going to. That would male Vlad lose a bit of face when he backs down.

 

[rekil]

Do we have any diplomatic political heavyweights left in the uk or are they all just cunts ? No one comes to mind

Craig Murray.

.

 

[not-bono-ever]

If you are minded , you might want to check out what UVB-76 has been up to since December . It back to normal tonight but will update if anything odd happens. Speculation that it was hacked but I’m not so sure

 

[Fez909]

If you are minded , you might want to check out what UVB-76 has been up to since December . It back to normal tonight but will update if anything odd happens. Speculation that it was hacked but I’m not so sure

To save anyone else the hassle of finding out what this means: it's a numbers station that started broadcasting memes recently. It's suspected that the frequency was hijacked by pirates, and now it's back to broadcasting it's 'normal' schedule - encoded spy shit.

*

 

[Ming]

I wonder if it will escalate and the world will end up burning?

 

[LDC]

I wonder if it will escalate and the world will end up burning?

I was thinking about that last night. I would bet nobody has that in their game plan, but the risk of either escalation, or something going very wrong must make the possibility of something globally catastrophic more likely.

 

[kebabking]

How wars end up is never, perhaps with one exception, what they looked like when they were in the planning stage. This may end up as being very little (in big geo-strategic/political terms), it may spin wildly out of control, the aims might change if there's early success and our friend gets a bit cocky, there just a bucketload of variables that can happen.

 

[steveo87]

The optimist in me says that there will be some 'low level' invasion, perhaps taking over the places Russia already has a 'presence', and a stalemate will take place for the next 5-10 years.

The pessimist in my really should never have watched Threads - because this all seems alarmingly familiar...

 

[LDC]

The optimist in me says that there will be some 'low level' invasion, perhaps taking over the places Russia already has a 'presence', and a stalemate will take place for the next 5-10 years.

The pessimist in my really should never have watched Threads - because this all seems alarmingly familiar...

My guess is whatever happens will primarily involve limited European countries and then Russia, I think the US will stay a step or more back tbh.

 

[steveo87]

Yeah I mean, realistically, neither Putin nor Biden would be stupid enough for option 2 (I'd like to think). I guess in reality I think this is the resumption of the Cold War, officially anyway.

I suppose the real question (or at least one I'm asking), is what happens when Putin goes?

 

[YouSir]

My guess is whatever happens will primarily involve limited European countries and then Russia, I think the US will stay a step or more back tbh.

Their weapons evidently won't. Even if there's an invasion with limited aims and just proxy actions by NATO powers it'll still lead to a load of civilian deaths, a lot of weapons floating around, an imposed/drained/fragmented or reliant government in the Ukraine... No happy endings at all from there really.

 

[kebabking]

I take a similar view to LynnDoyleCooper, but my big concern is two similar, perhaps interlinked, issues:

For many NATO/near-NATO states, Ukraine isn't a far away place about which they know nothing, but a neighbour with which they share close historical, familial and emotional ties - often with Russia not playing the hero - and the longer any conflict goes on, the greater the risk that they will become more involved, and that Russia will feel that they, NATO member states, need to be intimidated, or physically stopped from supporting Ukraine.

For the same states, and a wider group of states, if Russia can take Ukraine, or use physical force to bring it to political/national heel, then they will be next. They either fight now, with Ukraine, or they wait five years until the US is even less invested in NATO, and fight on their own.