Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[MrCurry]

I can't quite believe I'm suggesting reading this, but actually it's surprisingly good - and it certainly will help you to have a grasp of UK policy, approach and intent...

An article by the Defence Secretary on the situation in Ukraine

Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace discusses NATO, Ukraine and Russia.

www.gov.uk

I wonder who wrote it for him? Seems hard to believe that someone who is a member of this government has the intelligence to put together a cogent piece like that. It’s probably the product of senior civil servants / MI6 to which he’s put his name.

 

[Sprocket.]

I noticed Tobias Elwood becoming more prominent over the last couple of months. He has been raising the reality of a Russian incursion into Ukraine with some conviction.

 

[kebabking]

Swedish Security Agency Declares A National Event As Drone Incursions Over Nuclear Sites Grow

Swedish police are also investigating a spate of recent unmanned aircraft sightings over other sensitive sites beyond nuclear power plants.

www.thedrive.com

Grey Zone shit.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Hasn't Putin missed his chance? Am minded of Norman Parker in Parkhurst Tales when a showdown was coming between cons and screws and the guvnor appeared with the tornado team behind him and said, "Right!" - then nothing for a while, the another "Right!" - two rights, maybe, but then a third "Right!" and that's not right at all. The momentum was lost...

 

[JimW]

The other long recent piece on the Carnegie site was by that sort of exile Russian who ends up working for US intelligence/think tanks so coming from that side, anyway he reckoned there are personal animosities and emotional factors that do open the possibilty of less rational moves from Putin. Will drag out link in a bit but easy to find.
ETA article here: Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business

 

[Pickman's model]

Hasn't Putin missed his chance? Am minded of Norman Parker in Parkhurst Tales when a showdown was coming between cons and screws and the guvnor appeared with the tornado team behind him and said, "Right!" - then nothing for a while, the another "Right!" - two rights, maybe, but then a third "Right!" and that's not right at all. The momentum was lost...

you don't just storm into a country without doing some sort of dance beforehand to make it look like you've some justification, no matter how flimsy

 

[kebabking]

you don't just storm into a country without doing some sort of dance beforehand to make it look like you've some justification, no matter how flimsy

Anton Barbashin (@ABarbashin) Tweeted: Very bad message here from RIA. It states that Kyiv is increasing shelling of DNR and LNR. In a nutshell, this is how a real Russian invasion would start - lots of messages about Russians there being attacked - "2008 scenario"; that would be followed by Russia's response

Might be a thing, might not.

 

[Pickman's model]

Anton Barbashin (@ABarbashin) Tweeted: Very bad message here from RIA. It states that Kyiv is increasing shelling of DNR and LNR. In a nutshell, this is how a real Russian invasion would start - lots of messages about Russians there being attacked - "2008 scenario"; that would be followed by Russia's response

Might be a thing, might not.

yeh but it's that sort of thing you have to be on the watch for

 

[hitmouse]

Had been meaning to post this over here - James Meek has an interesting article in the current LRB, here's a non-paywalled version:
Did I invade? Do you exist?

 

[Magnus McGinty]

It’s like the slowest invasion ever. We all know it’s a bargaining chip but with very real objectives attached. If Putin manufactures a reason everyone knows it’s bullshit as he had 100,000 troops on the border coincidentally waiting. So why the theatre? He obviously doesn’t want war but can he back down from this point?

 

[petee]

computer attacks too

What We Know and Don’t Know about the Cyberattacks Against Ukraine - (updated)

Dozens of government agencies in Ukraine were targeted in a web site defacement campaign; around the same time some of the same agencies were infected with a destructive wiper. What happened?

zetter.substack.com

Last week dozens of government agencies in Ukraine were targeted in a web site defacement campaign in which hackers replaced their main web page with a politically charged message. Although the message asserted that the hackers had also stolen data from the agencies, the government was quick to announce that data had not been stolen.

Over the weekend, however, Microsoft announced that it detected destructive wiper malware on the systems of dozens of government entities in Ukraine — including some whose web sites were defaced. Wipers generally delete or overwrite important system files, rendering systems unable to boot up or otherwise operate. But it's not clear if the wiper was actually launched on any systems or just installed on them in preparation for a future wipe.

To help understand the incidents that are still unfolding, I’ve compiled what is currently known and unknown.

 

[Diamond]

I can't quite believe I'm suggesting reading this, but actually it's surprisingly good - and it certainly will help you to have a grasp of UK policy, approach and intent...

An article by the Defence Secretary on the situation in Ukraine

Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace discusses NATO, Ukraine and Russia.

www.gov.uk

No doubt, I will call down a thousand curses upon me with this but I do think that there is something to be said for Ben Wallace.

 

[Ming]

I doubt it's old Vlads' plan to go to war with NATO, but I think the dynamics of the situation he was looking at 12 months ago have changed, and in a way that's (almost) diametrically opposite to that which he wanted to create.

There are two separate situations that he's trying to change:

the first is the loss of 'buffer states' between Russia and NATO (and in Putin's view, those buffer states should be Russian buffers; friendly to Moscow, with their foreign, defence and economic policies both alligned with Russia's, and set by Russia - not sovereign, independent states with the right to set their own policies and decide who their friends and partners are).

the second is a more emotional, visceral, nationalistic issue, that of Ukraine. Putin simply does not believe that Ukraine is an independent polity, he believes it to be an inherent possession of Russia.

Unfortunately for Vlad, he's spent the last year using state media - or, media- to persuade, apparently successfully, the Russian population that a) NATO is about to attack Russia with a vast Tank army, filled with homosexuals and other deviants who will burn the Othodox Church, and Russia's cultural heritage, to the ground before 'converting' good Russians to their unholy practices, and b) that Ukraine is the homeland of Russia, and that it's recovery is not only desirable, but utterly necessary to the existence of a sovereign Russia.

He probably won't attack - physically - a member state, but the Swede's and the Finn's are digging in like they expect him to have a go at them before they join NATO: Sweden has effectively militarised the island of Gotland in the Baltic and held emergency reinforcement exercises with the US and other NATO states, while Finland has started some of its dispersement procedures, activating reserve units, going to a general higher readiness - and interestingly, the Finnish president spent half his new years TV address talking about how Finnish membership of NATO is a matter purely for Finland and NATO, not Russia. Finland has also just decided to by 64 F-35's to upgrade it's air force....

I think it's coming: Vlad has backed himself into a corner, and his window of opportunity is closing, fast.

It’s weird how Russia has embraced capitalism for the oligarchs and yet Putin is still ideological with regards to the dignity of the Rodina. Without nukes and gas reserves the country really would be nowhere. Its GDP is around Italy’s. I guess all that KGB training left an impression.

 

[RD2003]

It’s weird how Russia has embraced capitalism for the oligarchs and yet Putin is still ideological with regards to the dignity of the Rodina. Without nukes and gas reserves the country really would be nowhere. Its GDP is around Italy’s. I guess all that KGB training left an impression.

Nothing weird. There is no contradiction between the type of capitalism a country embraces and enduring nationalistic myths and notions.

Russia didn't embrace 'capitalism for the oligarchs.' The oligarchs got control because too many in the former Soviet elite saw personal advantage in listening to advice from 'free market' fanatics sticking in their oars from a western direction, with all the hubris they were currently indulging in. In doing so, they destroyed, instead of taking time to reorganise, their industrial base, and that is why they now have 'only nukes and gas' and have a GDP about the size of Italy's. It's also what gave those who became the oligarchs the opportunity to organise and consolidate. The mass of the Soviet people were nowhere, and had no say; they were spectators, dazzled and manipulated, just like anywhere else, but perhaps more atomised by the legacy of the Soviet-era monopoly on power and information. They will continue to have no say even if Putin comes unstuck, no matter what grandstanding his successors and the 'liberal' chatterers might indulge in. Any genuine left (though whether one even exists, or ever can in any meaningful sense, is debatable) will remain marginalised. And that will suit Putin's successors and 'the West' just fine. And in a few years, Russia will look a bit like it does at the moment.

Putin regards himself as the saviour of the Russian nation. And he has some reason to do so in that he brought a halt to the chaos of the Yeltsin years, reined in the oligarchs, and, in the absence of clear alternative ideologies, regalvanised the national myth (hardly something unique to Russia.) Eventually the post-Soviet crash in life expectancy levelled out, and tens of millions began getting paid again instead of having to wait months with no wages while watching the new rich roll by in their Mercedes and BMWs, and all in the name of liberal capitalism, which goes a long way to explain why he enjoyed genuine popularity for so long, and a blind eye was generally turned to the continued corruption and graft.

I don't like that any more than anybody else, but it's just the way it is.

 

[Ming]

Nothing weird. There is no contradiction between the type of capitalism a country embraces and enduring nationalistic myths and notions.

Russia didn't embrace 'capitalism for the oligarchs.' The oligarchs got control because too many in the former Soviet elite saw personal advantage in listening to advice from 'free market' fanatics sticking in their oars from a western direction, with all the hubris they were currently indulging in. In doing so, they destroyed, instead of taking time to reorganise, their industrial base, and that is why they now have 'only nukes and gas' and have a GDP about the size of Italy's. It's also what gave those who became the oligarchs the opportunity to organise and consolidate. The mass of the Soviet people were nowhere, and had no say; they were spectators, dazzled and manipulated, just like anywhere else, but perhaps more atomised by the legacy of the Soviet-era monopoly on power and information. They will continue to have no say even if Putin comes unstuck, no matter what grandstanding his successors and the 'liberal' chatterers might indulge in. Any genuine left (though whether one even exists, or ever can in any meaningful sense, is debatable) will remain marginalised. And that will suit Putin's successors and 'the West' just fine. And in a few years, Russia will look a bit like it does at the moment.

Putin regards himself as the saviour of the Russian nation. And he has some reason to do so in that he brought a halt to the chaos of the Yeltsin years, reined in the oligarchs, and, in the absence of clear alternative ideologies, regalvanised the national myth (hardly something unique to Russia.) Eventually the post-Soviet crash in life expectancy levelled out, and tens of millions began getting paid again instead of having to wait months with no wages while watching the new rich roll by in their Mercedes and BMWs, and all in the name of liberal capitalism, which goes a long way to explain why he enjoyed genuine popularity for so long, and a blind eye was generally turned to the continued corruption and graft.

I don't like that any more than anybody else, but it's just the way it is.

I’m an outcomes type person when I’m looking at situations. All the rest is froth and bubbles/bullshit. So where is Russia outside Moscow?

 

[RD2003]

I’m an outcomes type person when I’m looking at situations. All the rest is froth and bubbles/bullshit. So where is Russia outside Moscow?

Please translate into English.

 

[Ming]

Please translate into English.

Sure. The outcomes of the wall coming down were oligarchs taking over the place and regular Russians getting financially fucked due to their lack of knowledge of share ownership in newly privatized state energy companies. This mainly occurred around Moscow. Putin is an ideological leader due to his service and indoctrination in the KGB who wants to take his country back to the centre of the world stage.

 

[RD2003]

Sure. The outcomes of the wall coming down were oligarchs taking over the place and regular Russians getting financially fucked due to their lack of knowledge of share ownership in newly privatized state energy companies. This mainly occurred around Moscow. Putin is an ideological leader due to his service and indoctrination in the KGB who wants to take his country back to the centre of the world stage.

Thanks. Little different to what I said, except that I don't agree that Putin has any ideology other than a (so far) pragmatic nationalism, which was always the only option open to him. Apart from a particular approach to the defence and prestige of the Russian nation and state, little or nothing remains of the KGB education he received.

Putin was picked out for power when it was clear that the Russia which had beeen created when Perestroika crumbled was already unchallengeable internally. He was appointed to tidy up Yeltsin's mess and project a more competent and formidable Russia internationally, and, as far as possible, make it a reality. Some of those behind his appointment did come to realise they'd bitten off more than they could chew, and found out too late that they'd been wrong to regard him as a relatively minor functionary they could control.

 

[Ming]

Thanks. Little different to what I said, except that I don't agree that Putin has any ideology other than a (so far) pragmatic nationalism, which was always the only option open to him. Apart from a particular approach to the defence and prestige of the Russian nation and state, little or nothing remains of the KGB education he received.

Putin was picked out for power when it was clear that the Russia which had beeen created when Perestroika crumbled was already unchallengeable internally. He was appointed to tidy up Yeltsin's mess and project a more competent and formidable Russia internationally, and, as far as possible, make it a reality. Some of those behind his appointment did come to realise they'd bitten off more than they could chew, and found out too late that they'd been wrong to regard him as a relatively minor functionary they could control.

Who do you think picked him out for power?

 

[RD2003]

Who do you think picked him out for power?

A cabal of the most powerful oligarchs persuaded Yeltsin that things couldn't go on like they were, and forced his hand in return for immunity from prosecution on corruption grounds. As I said, they wanted Putin because they thought that he'd proved himself competent and they could control him.

 

[Ming]

A cabal of the most powerful oligarchs persuaded Yeltsin that things couldn't go on like they were, and forced his hand in return for immunity from prosecution on corruption grounds. As I said, they wanted Putin because they thought that he'd proved himself competent and they could control him.

So outcomes were private control of state energy industries and an ideolog in the driving seat. Looks like I was right.

 

[RD2003]

So outcomes were private control of state energy industries and an ideolog in the driving seat. Looks like I was right.

Fair enough. When you said 'and yet Putin is still ideological with regards to the dignity of the Rodina,' you seemed to me to be implying continuity with the Soviet ideology. Aside from nationalism (which is now Russian and not Soviet nationalism), I don't think that's the case.

 

[Ming]

Fair enough. When you said 'and yet Putin is still ideological with regards to the dignity of the Rodina,' you seemed to me to be implying continuity with the Soviet ideology. Aside from nationalism (which is now Russian and not Soviet nationalism), I don't think that's the case.

Agree. I used the word Rodina as it was created in the 90’s with regards to Russian rather than Soviet nationalism. I do think however than Putin harkens back to the days of the USSR. Sputnik and Yuri.

 

[RD2003]

Agree. I used the word Rodina as it was created in the 90’s with regards to Russian rather than Soviet nationalism. I do think however than Putin harkens back to the days of the USSR. Sputnik and Yuri.

Maybe, but definitely without the Bolshevik/Stalinist interpretation of Marxism.

 

[JimW]

One thing that came through from the articles I read is the Russian state's finances are actually in reasonable nick (as opposed to the real economy of people's livelihoods) as there's no harm being an energy exporter in the current climate and the resurgence of oil prices has been a bonus. So they're not short of capacity to act.

 

[JimW]

Bit of top trumps assessment of Ukraine's military capacity: 2014 vs. 2022 Ukraine’s improved but still longshot odds of withstanding a full-fledged Russian invasion — Meduza Basic take seems to be ground forces vastly improved but Russia with absolute air and sea supremacy so still largely fucked if it comes to it.

 

[Raheem]

So outcomes were private control of state energy industries and an ideolog in the driving seat. Looks like I was right.

Think private control of state energy industries was already achieved.

 

[steeplejack]

Build up of equpment in SE/ S Belarus, well outwith the stated areas of the joint "military drills".

 

[kebabking]

Interesting....

Mark Krutov (@kromark) Tweeted: Thread: few quick takes from our latest investigation on Russian military buildup near Ukraine. We chatted with several wifes/mothers/soldiers on the trains – but didn't pretend to change our identity. Even after learning we are journalists, some people continued to chat.

 

[steeplejack]

The Belsat portal (Belarusian opposition portal based in Poland) runs through the possible scenarios that may unfold in the weeks ahead, and speculates on a permanent and significant stationing of Russian troops in Belarus.

Looks likely that by early February Belarus' sovereignty in terms of defence and foreign affairs will exist only in theory.