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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Pickman's model said:
and it sounds like they're at it again
View attachment 297769
www.dailymail.co.uk

Russia preparing to INVADE Ukraine in January, Kiev General warns

Vladimir Putin's forces have fanned out across the Ukrainian frontier: from Belarus to the north; the separatist-backed territory in the east; and on the banks of the Black Sea in the Crimean Peninsula.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia-Ukraine border: Nato warning over military build-up

Nato's chief urges Russia to be transparent over its "large and unusual" massing of border forces.
www.bbc.co.uk

www.forbes.com

Russian Possible Invasion Of Ukraine? Reports Of Military Buildup Grow

It comes as thousands of Russian troops have amassed near the border with Ukraine.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

would nato do anything?
Click to expand...

NATO won't, simply because there's no unanimity about what to do - the Eastern and Northern states see Ukraine as the test bench of Europe's willingness to fight, and see themselves as next on Vlads' menu, but Germany is dead set against even stiff statements lest they get in the way of gas and business.

France is making statements that vere one way and then the other, Sweden (not NATO, but with a relationship so close that not only it may as well be, but rather closer than a couple of NATO members), is sending troops to Ukraine, the UK holds regular exercises there, we've a training mission there, and we're building them a Navy, and the US is shovelling munitions to Ukraine like they're going out of fashion.
 
kebabking said:
NATO won't, simply because there's no unanimity about what to do - the Eastern and Northern states see Ukraine as the test bench of Europe's willingness to fight, and see themselves as next on Vlads' menu, but Germany is dead set against even stiff statements lest they get in the way of gas and business.

France is making statements that vere one way and then the other, Sweden (not NATO, but with a relationship so close that not only it may as well be, but rather closer than a couple of NATO members), is sending troops to Ukraine, the UK holds regular exercises there, we've a training mission there, and we're building them a Navy, and the US is shovelling munitions to Ukraine like they're going out of fashion.
Click to expand...
wouldn't it be cheaper to just send the materiel direct to moscow?
 
I suspect it's just tension raising as in the cold war. Looks like they want to carve up Ukraine but will NATO let them.
 
Has anyone started a book on when this will kick off?

I'd put my money on 8th January, as the Ukrainians will be hung over then, as their Christmas festivities follow the Julian calendar
 
Nylock said:
Couldn't you have picked a less hyperbolic source than the fucking Express??? Three weeks ago they were banging on about the possibility of war between us and France over the cross channel refugee issue...
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I did wonder seeing that it was the Express, but it was dramatic so I posted it :( :)
 
The theory is that Russia plans to grab a chunk of Novoroissiya to get the 3 million people living their and then trade the region (big lump of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts) for Crimea Oblast in terms of formal recognition.
Russia is headed to demographic collapse beginning later this decade and Putin is nearing the end of his reign. A lot of very long term trends are going into reverse in the coming years. Putin likely knows he and his countries time for action is closing. If he strikes now he could have a bargaining chip to take Crimea off the table. If he does not it will be a serious rubbing point between Russia and its broader neighbourhood.
He may not be the master chess player some see him as, but hes great at poker. He can pull of a bluff but not really master a long game. The coming invasion (if it comes) is more likely to be a bluff.
His fear is Turkey, Poland and Finland.
Because some countries have long memories and still willing people.
 
The ACG have shared this article from Konflikt, a new anarchist group in Bulgaria, on the situation in Ukraine :

www.anarchistcommunism.org

Ukraine: war drums on the Dnieper - Anarchist Communist Group

Whilst tensions between Putin's Russia and Zelensky's Ukraine have reduced in recent days, we are sharing the following article from Konflikt, a new libertarian revolutionary group in Bulgaria, which analyses the situation and the needed response from the working class: rejection of both camps...
www.anarchistcommunism.org www.anarchistcommunism.org
 
Lots of chatter about this in the Swedish news today. The Swedish military has made a major deployment to the Baltic island of Gotland, implying they might be worried the Russians aren’t planning to stop in Ukraine if they launch an incursion.

It seems a lot of people are deciding that Putin is about to push the go button on whatever his plan is.
 
MrCurry said:
Lots of chatter about this in the Swedish news today. The Swedish military has made a major deployment to the Baltic island of Gotland, implying they might be worried the Russians aren’t planning to stop in Ukraine if they launch an incursion.

It seems a lot of people are deciding that Putin is about to push the go button on whatever his plan is.
Click to expand...

Definitely feels like it's edging closer to something happening.
 
Read this on the Carnegie site, week old but strikes me as a non-swivel-eye insight into Russian perspective, author is a former journo who started at foreign ministry: Are Russia and Ukraine Once Again on the Brink of War?
Russia, for its part, is discovering its own worst option. For three decades, the greatest fear of the Russian leadership was that Ukraine (and Belarus) would join NATO and move Western military infrastructure right up to Russia’s borders. Now it turns out that that can happen even without NATO, and in more real and long-term and less predictable ways. An aggrieved country that is building its entire identity on the rejection of everything Russian is far easier to turn into a fortified area on Russia’s border than a country confined by NATO procedures. In the absence of any security guarantees from a bloc, that country will be ready at the drop of a hat to welcome foreign aircraft, ships, and troops, and to equip its own army, leaping into action out of fear.

Russia’s military preparations, the publication of the confidential correspondence, and Putin’s call for guarantees on its southwestern flank signal that Moscow has recognized the danger of coexisting with such a fortified area and does not want to accept it, but doesn’t yet know what to do about it.
Click to expand...
 
Bingoman said:
Are the Russian trying to revive the old Soviet Union style or something else?
Click to expand...

Yep there's no desire amongst Putin's circles for a return of the USSR- quite the opposite if anything. C19th Russian nationalism / Orthodox patriotism & chauvinism, and the reign of Nicholas I, much more important in their thinking.

Edited to add: several eyewitness reports of significant Russian military traffic in Belarus this afternoon. The absorption of Belarus into the Russian western military district really does see Ukraine surrounded.

On war? 50:50 I think. Certainly looking bleak presently.
 
I wonder if it’ll escalate to boots on the ground if Russia does invade. Maybe a UN peace keeping force response or just material support? Putin’s not crazy enough to go to war with NATO right?
 
I doubt it's old Vlads' plan to go to war with NATO, but I think the dynamics of the situation he was looking at 12 months ago have changed, and in a way that's (almost) diametrically opposite to that which he wanted to create.

There are two separate situations that he's trying to change:

the first is the loss of 'buffer states' between Russia and NATO (and in Putin's view, those buffer states should be Russian buffers; friendly to Moscow, with their foreign, defence and economic policies both alligned with Russia's, and set by Russia - not sovereign, independent states with the right to set their own policies and decide who their friends and partners are).

the second is a more emotional, visceral, nationalistic issue, that of Ukraine. Putin simply does not believe that Ukraine is an independent polity, he believes it to be an inherent possession of Russia.

Unfortunately for Vlad, he's spent the last year using state media - or, media- to persuade, apparently successfully, the Russian population that a) NATO is about to attack Russia with a vast Tank army, filled with homosexuals and other deviants who will burn the Othodox Church, and Russia's cultural heritage, to the ground before 'converting' good Russians to their unholy practices, and b) that Ukraine is the homeland of Russia, and that it's recovery is not only desirable, but utterly necessary to the existence of a sovereign Russia.

He probably won't attack - physically - a member state, but the Swede's and the Finn's are digging in like they expect him to have a go at them before they join NATO: Sweden has effectively militarised the island of Gotland in the Baltic and held emergency reinforcement exercises with the US and other NATO states, while Finland has started some of its dispersement procedures, activating reserve units, going to a general higher readiness - and interestingly, the Finnish president spent half his new years TV address talking about how Finnish membership of NATO is a matter purely for Finland and NATO, not Russia. Finland has also just decided to by 64 F-35's to upgrade it's air force....

I think it's coming: Vlad has backed himself into a corner, and his window of opportunity is closing, fast.
 
I hope it comes to nothing, but Putin is playing a bloody dangerous game, I see we have sent a supply of anti-tank missiles, and more troops to provide training.

Britain is supplying Ukraine with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence after Russia amassed about 100,000 troops on its border, the defence secretary said.
Ben Wallace told MPs a small team of British troops would also be sent to Ukraine to provide training.
He said there was "legitimate and real cause for concern" the Russian troops could be used for an invasion.
Click to expand...

Dozens of British troops have been in Ukraine since 2015 to help train their armed forces, and the UK has also made a commitment to help rebuild Ukraine's navy following Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014.
But Mr Wallace said the UK would be providing extra help with security in the light of Russia's "increasingly threatening behaviour".
Click to expand...

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary

The defence secretary says he is sending short-range anti-tank missiles amid Russian invasion fears.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
Dependents and some diplomats have been leaving since Jan. 5, apparently.

On Jan. 5, 18 people — mostly the children and wives of Russian diplomats — boarded buses and embarked on a 15-hour drive home to Moscow, according to a senior Ukrainian security official.

About 30 more followed in the next few days, from Kyiv and a consulate in Lviv, in western Ukraine. Diplomats at two other Russian consulates have been told to prepare to leave Ukraine, the security official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

Thinning out the Russian Embassy may be part propaganda, part preparation for a looming conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.

www.nytimes.com

Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move

The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Last edited:
kebabking said:
I can't quite believe I'm suggesting reading this, but actually it's surprisingly good - and it certainly will help you to have a grasp of UK policy, approach and intent...

www.gov.uk

An article by the Defence Secretary on the situation in Ukraine

Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace discusses NATO, Ukraine and Russia.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
Click to expand...

Yes, it is good, thanks for posting. :thumbs:

This is also a good article, I have to admit that after the massive build up of troops from early last year, then nothing happening, I found myself not paying much attention until now, because it's clearly hotting up.

In recent weeks, the Russian forces have been bolstered by naval infantry, heavy weapons, logistical units, and parachute battalions. Startled reservists are arriving on the border, as are units from Russia’s east, having trundled thousands of miles across the country by train to line up and face down their Ukrainian neighbours.

Independent Belarusian journalists are reporting that Russian hardware is arriving in Belarus for “snap military drills”, supposedly to be held in February. Perhaps it’s unsurprising that Washington has accused Russia looking for an excuse to invade: White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki claimed that US intelligence had “information that indicates Russia’s already prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation”.
Click to expand...

In other reports I spotted that Canada is sending some special forces, whereas Germany continues blocking arms exports, because of that bloody gas pipeline, and I've now learnt the US is backing them, which will look weak in Putin's eyes. What a bloody mess.

As Davidzon points out, for all of Biden’s strong rhetoric, he continues to resist the idea of making sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline project part of congressional law.

In this, the US is backing its most important EU partner: Germany, which wants to decouple the pipeline from any EU or Nato-wide sanctions package. Europe sucks on Russian gas like a crackhead on his pipe. And how many junkies can realistically sanction their dealer? Germany is weak here; and the US is made to look weak by proxy.
Click to expand...

unherd.com

Why Biden has sacrificed Ukraine

Putin sees through the West's empty rhetoric
unherd.com unherd.com
 
kebabking said:
Unfortunately for Vlad, he's spent the last year using state media - or, media- to persuade, apparently successfully, the Russian population that a) NATO is about to attack Russia with a vast Tank army, filled with homosexuals and other deviants who will burn the Othodox Church, and Russia's cultural heritage, to the ground before 'converting' good Russians to their unholy practices...
Click to expand...

I was in Donetsk for 6 months in 2015 and it was a regular occurrence that Russia supporters would be giving out leaflets in public warning people of the Jews, spies, NATO, decadent westerners all gunning for exactly that. Grim.
 
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