Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[LDC]

Yeah, it's easy living here to not quite get the emotions and underlying political anger that's been brewing there for years (generations arguably...). People have families, and deep connections all over the place in that area. Here's a pic of a kids playground near Donetsk that was shelled by Ukraine forces in 2015, killing a local and wounding some kids iirc. This shit happens all the time there. The other issue is the poor command and control of some of the forces there, both Ukrainian and Russian. Look at the flight shot down not so long ago, something like that happening in the middle of this has potentially huge consequences.

 

[Ming]

Redirect Notice

 

[Pickman's model]

I wonder if it will escalate and the world will end up burning?

yes

 

[Nikkormat]

I take a similar view to LynnDoyleCooper, but my big concern is two similar, perhaps interlinked, issues:

For many NATO/near-NATO states, Ukraine isn't a far away place about which they know nothing, but a neighbour with which they share close historical, familial and emotional ties - often with Russia not playing the hero - and the longer any conflict goes on, the greater the risk that they will become more involved, and that Russia will feel that they, NATO member states, need to be intimidated, or physically stopped from supporting Ukraine.

For the same states, and a wider group of states, if Russia can take Ukraine, or use physical force to bring it to political/national heel, then they will be next. They either fight now, with Ukraine, or they wait five years until the US is even less invested in NATO, and fight on their own.

This is exactly the feeling here in Czech Republic. While the president is pro-Russian, the government and the majority of the public are not (though some went to Donbas to fight for the separatists), and memories of the Warsaw Pact invasion in 1968 and subsequent Russian occupation are still raw, along with the 2014 attack by Russian agents on the Vrbětice arms warehouse.

 

[steeplejack]

with news that Ukraine & Russia will meet diplomatically in Paris with Franco-German involvement, this seems an accurate summary even if no war happens (still looks unlikely):

 

[teqniq]

Things seem to have gone off the boil, for now at least but an interesting observation in the lower tweet:

 

[magneze]

Interesting characterisation - "our politics" in the tweet, but "United Kingdom's ruling conservative party" in the document.

 

[Rimbaud]

I feel like Russia is having a bit of a Brexit moment.

It still sees itself as an Empire and world player but in reality, it is barely in the top 5 European economies and has only about 3/4 of the GDP of Italy. In terms of population and GDP the most analogous country is Mexico. In fact Guangdong province in China is larger by GDP and has almost as great a population. Its population is only about 3x that of Ukraine. Turkey, Germany and Iran all have around 60-70% of Russia's population.

Apart from geographical area and military might, it simply isn't a world power and throwing its weight around isn't going to help. For all its faults, the success of the US has a lot to do with its liberal approach to International Relations which allows for consensus building and developing alliances which are looser but tend to be less brittle as a result. The US didn't send in the tanks when Charles De Gaulle pulled out of NATO for instance, the Soviets did send in the tanks when the Czech government defied them however.

This goes a long way to explaining why the states Russia views as its near-abroad are so keen to cosy up to NATO and the EU but not the other way round. Attempting to seize Ukraine by force due to imperial delusion is only going to accelerate Russia's slide into irrelevance and obscurity and will probably result in them losing influence over Belarus as well as Ukraine and being reduced to a backwater.

 

[steveo87]

My current theory (that evidently changes daily)

Things seem to have gone off the boil, for now at least but an interesting observation in the lower tweet:

I mean, they're not wrong....

 

[hitmouse]

Interesting characterisation - "our politics" in the tweet, but "United Kingdom's ruling conservative party" in the document.

Tbf, the conservative party has played a fairly significant role in "our politics" in recent years. And the document also mentions the press and real estate and financial industries.

Anyway, new (broadcast on Monday, so slightly out of date, but hopefully still relevant) interview from Dresden with a Ukranian anarcho:

Elephant in the room #37 – Anarchists and war in Ukraine – AND

a-dresden.org

 

[gosub]

I feel like Russia is having a bit of a Brexit moment.

It still sees itself as an Empire and world player but in reality, it is barely in the top 5 European economies and has only about 3/4 of the GDP of Italy. In terms of population and GDP the most analogous country is Mexico. In fact Guangdong province in China is larger by GDP and has almost as great a population. Its population is only about 3x that of Ukraine. Turkey, Germany and Iran all have around 60-70% of Russia's population.

Apart from geographical area and military might, it simply isn't a world power and throwing its weight around isn't going to help. For all its faults, the success of the US has a lot to do with its liberal approach to International Relations which allows for consensus building and developing alliances which are looser but tend to be less brittle as a result. The US didn't send in the tanks when Charles De Gaulle pulled out of NATO for instance, the Soviets did send in the tanks when the Czech government defied them however.

This goes a long way to explaining why the states Russia views as its near-abroad are so keen to cosy up to NATO and the EU but not the other way round. Attempting to seize Ukraine by force due to imperial delusion is only going to accelerate Russia's slide into irrelevance and obscurity and will probably result in them losing influence over Belarus as well as Ukraine and being reduced to a backwater.

For years EUro skeptics were described as little englanders a pajorative term dating back to the end of the raj. You can't have it both ways.
I don't think Putin is trying to rebuild the CCCP and don't think Putin thinks he is either
Whilst Russia isn't the power it once was it is still has a capable military and defense a signifant industry for it.

Putin hasn't so far mobilised sufficent troops to be able to take and hold Ukraine and so far held even further back the shining new kit with he would need to do that and /or show off for export orders. However if and when it were deployed would probably be hard to avoid an escalating spiral of doom

 

[teqniq]

Further to Russian money in the UK:

Ukraine crisis: US sounds alarm over Russian ‘dirty money’ in London

American officials fear that they will be unable to impose effective sanctions on President Putin if Russia invades Ukraine because of years of British toleran

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Serge Forward]

Ukraine: neither NATO nor Moscow! - Anarchist Communist Group

 

[Rimbaud]

For years EUro skeptics were described as little englanders a pajorative term dating back to the end of the raj. You can't have it both ways.
I don't think Putin is trying to rebuild the CCCP and don't think Putin thinks he is either
Whilst Russia isn't the power it once was it is still has a capable military and defense a signifant industry for it.

Putin hasn't so far mobilised sufficent troops to be able to take and hold Ukraine and so far held even further back the shining new kit with he would need to do that and /or show off for export orders. However if and when it were deployed would probably be hard to avoid an escalating spiral of doom

I also don't think he intends to rebuild the Soviet Union, but Russia as an Empire is something much older than that.

I think he still has a notion that Russia is a great state and therefore entitled to its "near abroad" sphere of influence, and would like to weaken the EU and NATO with the goal of returning parts of Eastern Europe into its sphere of influence. (Of course the US is also guilty of similar behaviour in Latin America).

But short of military might, Russia is a weak economy and not even particularly populous with 145million people out of 750million in Europe. It is also poorer than all but a handful of European states, such as Belarus, Serbia, Bosnia, Albania. Further, it is spread quite thinly as it also has its Central Asia sphere of influence to maintain and the Russian Far East, which China quietly has its eyes on despite having an alliance of convenience with Russia for now. Indian presence and interests in Central Asia are also only going to increase and there is no way that Russia can maintain that as its backyard when it is going to inevitably share it with India and China who already dwarf Russia and the gap between them will only increase. Russia is the 11th largest economy in the world today, but it is almost inevitable that it will be overtaken in the near future by countries like Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico. It is 9th largest population but this is also projected to shrink to 14th by 2050.

In short - the geopolitical and economic conditions for Russia as a great power are simply not there and are set to diminish. It has a huge area which it considers to be its sphere of influence but does not have the economy or population to really maintain it against the backdrop of rising Asian economies, and so has to rely on disinformation and threats of force.

It is never going to return to its former prominence and trying to is only going to make it worse for itself by building resentment towards it. Probably the best thing is to offer a kind of possibility of rapprochement between Europe and Russia in a way that allows Russia to still feel important and won't feel like submission, but I guess this would be no easy task.

And like it or not, and it may not be everyone who voted Brexit, but a large and likely decisive part of support for Brexit came from belief that Britain can/should be a power in its own right, rather than in a position perceived as subordinate within the EU. I don't want to get into this too much as it is going off topic a bit, but I think there is a kind of phenomena of the countries of the "global North" who were major powers in the 19th and 20th centuries not being as decisive or dominant as they once were, but have not really came to terms with this yet.

 

[gosub]

Boris' Ukraine posting seems a bit of a risky plan. Presumably any Ruskies that sneek over the border, his job is to start babbling at them in German telling them they've gone too far. If that cunning plan doesn't work, will he have any backup?

 

[MrCurry]

Boris' Ukraine posting seems a bit of a risky plan. Presumably any Ruskies that sneek over the border, his job is to start babbling at them in German telling them they've gone too far. If that cunning plan doesn't work, will he have any backup?

He’s presumably gone there to tell the Ukrainians how their interests are not being served by whatever the French, Germans and Americans are cooking up with Russia. Would be a different story if those three had not excluded U.K. from their talks.

Looks like desperation from Boris, trying to hide the fact Brexit has made the U.K. less important on the international stage.

 

[steeplejack]

Squadron of Bristol Bulldogs under the command of Squadron Leader Francois heading to a forward position as we speak

 

[hitmouse]

Ukraine: neither NATO nor Moscow! - Anarchist Communist Group

Can anyone recommend a decent simple explanation of what the current composition of the Ukranian government is? I've seen claims like this made in a few places (from that article):
"As for the government in Ukraine, it contains several far right ministers keen on reviving reactionary, fascistic and anti-Semitic sentiment in that region."
And can certainly believe the Ukranian government containing its fair share of scumbags, but also sure that the Russian state will be keen to play up their antifascist credentials as much as possible, so a good reliable source setting out what's going on there would be appreciated.

 

[teqniq]

Could this be actually real or just sabre-rattling on the part of the Tories? Particularly as they may be hostage to Russian money as l linked to above:

Kremlin Slams ‘Alarming’ British Threat to Seize Oligarchs’ Property - The Moscow Times

The Kremlin vowed Monday to retaliate if Britain seized Russian oligarchs’ London properties as part of sweeping sanctions aimed at deterring Moscow from invading Ukraine.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Sprocket.]

Could this be actually real or just sabre-rattling on the part of the Tories? Particularly as they may be hostage to Russian money as l linked to above:

Kremlin Slams ‘Alarming’ British Threat to Seize Oligarchs’ Property - The Moscow Times

The Kremlin vowed Monday to retaliate if Britain seized Russian oligarchs’ London properties as part of sweeping sanctions aimed at deterring Moscow from invading Ukraine.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Another pile of poo for the Tories to slither their way out of.

 

[vanya]

Has anyone else noticed the way the whole Russia/Ukraine thing has brought the rank hypocrisy of American foreign policy? I remember a couple weeks ago reading some Senior Fellow at Big Foreign Affairs Think Tank (forget the name and institution) going on about how Russia had nothing to fear from countries on its border joining NATO, because NATO is a purely defensive alliance. Does anyone remember Serbia ever attacking us? For that matter, imagine for a second that Canada signed a “defensive alliance” with China that could potentially result in thousands of Chinese troops being stationed along the 49th parallel. Somehow I think Mr. Senior Fellow and everyone like him would have something to say about that, and it wouldn’t involve anything about “respecting Canada’s sovereignty”.

Likewise, also a couple weeks ago we had a member of Boris Johnson’s cabinet going on about how “Putin needs to learn to follow international law, and a basic part of international law is not invading other countries.” Umm, dude, there’s this little place called “Iraq,” you may have heard of it…

The thing is, what Russia is asking for is not even really that unprecedented-during the Cold War, there were tacit agreements between the US and USSR that Finland and Austria (to name the two I can think of off the top of my head) would be essentially neutral buffer states, involved in neither NATO nor the Warsaw pact. In both cases, Russia lived up to its word and did not invade, and the countries in question enjoyed a rather peaceful and sanguine existence throughout the Cold War era. Russia is basically asking that Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics be treated the same way, which is not entirely unreasonable. In an ideal world we’d extract additional security guarantees from Russia in return-but certainly wouldn’t treat such a demand as a barbaric non-starter the way our current political class is doing.

Furthermore, anyone who knows Russian history can understand why rolling NATO right up to the doorstep of a country that, three times in the last two centuries, has been devastated and almost destroyed by invasions from the West would produce the reaction it has. But nope, the United States and NATO are just peaceful, put upon little doves and Russia is a giant big bag ogre, so it is and so it ever must be. Its like the people running this country truly, honest, sincerely believe their shit doesn’t stink.

 

[kebabking]

Really?

Finland, Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, The Baltic States - their populations don't get to decide what economic, diplomatic, and defence relationships their countries should, or should not, have with whatever states they like because Russia, a state with six thousand nuclear weapons has an inferiority complex?

Fuck off and behave.

 

[petee]

Has anyone else noticed

classic troll opener.

 

[NoXion]

The thing is, what Russia is asking for is not even really that unprecedented-during the Cold War, there were tacit agreements between the US and USSR that Finland and Austria (to name the two I can think of off the top of my head) would be essentially neutral buffer states, involved in neither NATO nor the Warsaw pact. In both cases, Russia lived up to its word and did not invade, and the countries in question enjoyed a rather peaceful and sanguine existence throughout the Cold War era. Russia is basically asking that Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics be treated the same way, which is not entirely unreasonable. In an ideal world we’d extract additional security guarantees from Russia in return-but certainly wouldn’t treat such a demand as a barbaric non-starter the way our current political class is doing.

It's also not completely unreasonable that Russia's demand for neutral buffer states is being made in bad faith.

 

[kebabking]

There was an old Soviet maxim that the only secure border was one where the Red Army was on both sides...

Given that Putin's Russia has a habit of merging with, or straight invading and annexing, previously neutral states on its borders, the idea that Russia is to be trusted to leave these 'buffer' states in place is laughable.

In 2014 the flags being waved in Kiev were EU flags, in 2022 they are NATO flags. Odd that...

 

[splonkydoo]

It is easier to just outright say that you support NATO in international affairs rather than dressing it up with compelled outrage on behalf of other nations.

In 2014 the flags being waved in Kiev were EU flags, in 2022 they are NATO flags. Odd that...

I remember quite a lot of fascist flags being waved about in 2014 too. Odd that.

 

[hitmouse]

If anyone wants to read a close-to-8,000 words thoughtful piece about this stuff, just gonna plug this one again: James Meek · Did I invade? Do you exist? · LRB 18 December 2021

 

[not-bono-ever]

seeing as Putin is likely the richest man on earth and owns half of Mayfair through hidden offshore company structures , asset seizing might be tricky. Good luck with that .

 

[redsquirrel]

Really?

Finland, Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, The Baltic States - their populations don't get to decide what economic, diplomatic, and defence relationships their countries should, or should not, have with whatever states they like because Russia, a state with six thousand nuclear weapons has an inferiority complex?

Fuck off and behave.

Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Peru - their populations don't get to decide what economic, diplomatic, and defence relationships their countries should, or should not, have with whatever states they like because US wants to ensure profits for its bosses?

One does not have to be foolish enough to mistake Russian foreign policy for "anti-imperialism" to see the utter rank hypocrisy of the the nation that formulated the Monroe Doctrine and which has continually interfered in the politics of its neighbours over the course of more than a century talking about countries 'freedom to choose'.

I don't agree with vanya 's post but some (much) of the stuff in the mainstream UK news about this has been laughable second rate 'reds under the beds' crap. Such as the UK government releasing press stories that the Ukrainians reject. Putin cast as arch-villain, Germany as self-interested parties wanting energy, the French as 'cheese eating surrender monkeys'.

The actions of the NATO and the governments of its constituent countries are no less driven by self-interest than those of Russia. And the ratcheting up of tensions has not been one-sided.

 

[Serge Forward]

Can anyone recommend a decent simple explanation of what the current composition of the Ukranian government is? I've seen claims like this made in a few places (from that article):
"As for the government in Ukraine, it contains several far right ministers keen on reviving reactionary, fascistic and anti-Semitic sentiment in that region."
And can certainly believe the Ukranian government containing its fair share of scumbags, but also sure that the Russian state will be keen to play up their antifascist credentials as much as possible, so a good reliable source setting out what's going on there would be appreciated.

Hmm... a quick glance gives me the impression of a big tent centrist to right wing lash-up aligned to the comedian. Our charlie mowbray might have more info on this though.