Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[8ball]

Shit or bust, and if bust - then very likely to be replaced by someone even more hardline than him. There are very possible consequences of what that may look like which is not hopeful at all.

The "shit or bust" is based on Putin's irrational ideas about Russian mythology.
I'm not convinced that there is a strong enough faction in the Kremlin to carry that without Putin.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The Ukrainians have certainly punched above their weight, that is not in doubt.
And the Russians’ original war aims are in tatters - that’s not in doubt either.

In terms of re-taking territory, though, I think you may be underestimating the weight differential, assuming you are basing your assertion on anything but avoiding despair, or an uncritical view of Western propaganda.

I really hope we can look back in not too long and say you were right and I was wrong.

Its pretty clear that the Urkainian strategy is to hold off the Russian assault, degrading Russian capabilities in the process - whilst preparing for to launch a major counter offensive/s - they are getting their new weapons into position and training up troops to use them - and also training their large number of new recruits (presumably to hold defensive position).
It may be that the counter attack in Kherson is a smaller scale operation desigined to keep russian troops off balance and to lesson the pressure in the donbas - or it could turn into something bigger.
When they launch their counter offensive there are a range of possilbilies between
1. it is largely unsuccessful and the Russians hold onto their gains - then a grinding stalemate leading to some sort of ceasefire. Or the Russians have another go (they may not have the capabiltiy to do this)
then all stages up to
2. The Russian offensive exhausts their military capabilities so much that the Ukrainian counter attacks causes them to collapse and break (like what happened at Stalingrad) - leading to a wholesale retreat back to pre-invasion lines (this then leads to a dangerous situation where Ukraine may seek to press its advantage and advance beyond pre- invasion borders into areas like Crimea)

I think anything in the range is within the bounds of reasonable possibility.

 

[8ball]

Its pretty clear that the Urkainian strategy is to hold off the Russian assault, degrading Russian capabilities in the process - whilst preparing for to launch a major counter offensive/s - they are getting their new weapons into position and training up troops to use them - and also training their large number of new recruits (presumably to hold defensive position).
It may be that the counter attack in Kherson is a smaller scale operation desigined to keep russian troops off balance and to lesson the pressure in the donbas - or it could turn into something bigger.
When they launch their counter offensive there are a range of possilbilies between
1. it is largely unsuccessful and the Russians hold onto their gains - then a grinding stalemate leading to some sort of ceasefire. Or the Russians have another go (they may not have the capabiltiy to do this)
then all stages up to
2. The Russian offensive exhausts their military capabilities so much that the Ukrainian counter attacks causes them to collapse and break (like what happened at Stalingrad) - leading to a wholesale retreat back to pre-invasion lines (this then leads to a dangerous situation where Ukraine may seek to press its advantage and advance beyond pre- invasion borders into areas like Crimea)

I think anything in the range is within the bounds of reasonable possibility.

My guess would be much closer to 1, and that seems optimistic.

Not to diss optimism..

 

[Kaka Tim]

My guess would be much closer to 1, and that seems optimistic.

Not to diss optimism..

not sure why you think that is optimistic. Russia does not have the capability to launch a full scale assault - hence it concentrating all its efforts in one small area with only limited success.

 

[8ball]

not sure why you think that is optimistic. Russia does not have the capability to launch a full scale assault - hence it concentrating all its efforts in one small area with only limited success.

I'm just giving my impressions based on a number of sources, tempered with being careful about bias.
Severodonetsk seems to be going the way of Mariupol right at this minute.

 

[maomao]

and also training their large number of new recruits (presumably to hold defensive position)

There have been a few references to a million or so soldiers being ready end of August. Six months training and presumably highly motivated.

 

[David Clapson]

There are Brits on C4 News complaining about lack of kit, food and intelligence when fighting. No shit Sherlock. Why expect anything at all in such desperate chaos? If you're going to go, wouldn't you buy body armour and helmet etc before you go? And take plenty of money for food? You might as well max out your credit card....you're not likely to come home.

 

[Duncan2]

There are Brits on C4 News complaining about lack of kit, food and intelligence when fighting. No shit Sherlock. Why expect anything at all in such desperate chaos? If you're going to go, wouldn't you buy body armour and helmet etc before you go? And take plenty of money for food? You might as well max out your credit card....you're not likely to come home.

Saw that guy.He estimated that as many as seven hundred Brits had gone to Ukraine and that of those thirty or so had lost their lives.However he also said that there were so far as he knew no official records of who had gone out or of what had become of them subsequently.Not entirely surprising of course that war should prove to be a bloody shambles they appear to have resorted to doing their own thing.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I'm just giving my impressions based on a number of sources, tempered with being careful about bias.
Severodonetsk seems to be going the way of Mariupol right at this minute.

Very likely - a grinding siege that costs Russia dearly in men and equipment and leaves them in control of the rubble. It terms of the overall progress of the war it is of little strategic importance - it still leaves the Russians on the wrong side of the river. What it would do would be to allow Russia to claim it has complete control of the region - and claim some sort of "victory" . Its not going to affect the success or otherwise of the likely Ukrainain counter attack - other than the extent to which it has weakened Russian military capability.
At Stalingrad the Germans besieged the city for months - slowly grinding their way forwards - pouring in more and more men and equipment and stripping their flanks in the process. The soviets put enough resources into the city to hold the Germans at bay - whilst building up forces on the northern and southern flanks. After several months the launched their counter attack, broke through weakened Axis lines on the north and south (mostly ill equipped Italian and Romanian troops) and trapped an entire German army in the city, cutting them off from their supplies lines until they were battered and starved into surrender.
It was a military disaster that fatally weakened the German army and turned the tide of the war.
This is the kind of thing Ukraine is trying to achieve - hold a defensive line, wearing out your enemy until you are strong enough to launch a counter offensive that breaks the entire line - so they have to retreat or risk being encircled.

 

[not-bono-ever]

thinking about the Donbas region and shit - have to bear in mid that this place has been at war since 2014- an expanded Donbas could be occupied by the sheer weight of fresh meat from the Russians without a doubt- but its firmly hostile territory now, even from resident ethnic russians. You dont wanna get all Marigella or Guevara but even holding the occupied region would be incredibly expensive from both a cash and hardware/ bodies perspective. BUT WHAT THE FUCK DO I KNOW caveat

 

[David Clapson]

Saw that guy.He estimated that as many as seven hundred Brits had gone to Ukraine and that of those thirty or so had lost their lives.However he also said that there were so far as he knew no official records of who had gone out or of what had become of them subsequently.Not entirely surprising of course that war should prove to be a bloody shambles they appear to have resorted to doing their own thing.

You can tell from the tweets of two international brigade members https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974 and https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance that things were chaotic at first but they've become much more professional. And they were chronically short of kit at first and used twitter to get donations for radios, armour, vehicles etc.

Discipline was so absent at the start that lots of the volunteers turned up to the Yavoriv training base with their UK mobile phones switched on, and kept them on to take photos etc. Then lots of Russian missiles arrived. Yavoriv military base attack - Wikipedia

 

[David Clapson]

Very likely - a grinding siege that costs Russia dearly in men and equipment and leaves them in control of the rubble. It terms of the overall progress of the war it is of little strategic importance - it still leaves the Russians on the wrong side of the river. What it would do would be to allow Russia to claim it has complete control of the region - and claim some sort of "victory" . Its not going to affect the success or otherwise of the likely Ukrainain counter attack - other than the extent to which it has weakened Russian military capability.
At Stalingrad the Germans besieged the city for months - slowly grinding their way forwards - pouring in more and more men and equipment and stripping their flanks in the process. The soviets put enough resources into the city to hold the Germans at bay - whilst building up forces on the northern and southern flanks. After several months the launched their counter attack, broke through weakened Axis lines on the north and south (mostly ill equipped Italian and Romanian troops) and trapped an entire German army in the city, cutting them off from their supplies lines until they were battered and starved into surrender.
It was a military disaster that fatally weakened the German army and turned the tide of the war.
This is the kind of thing Ukraine is trying to achieve - hold a defensive line, wearing out your enemy until you are strong enough to launch a counter offensive that breaks the entire line - so they have to retreat or risk being encircled.

If the Americans and British would just hurry up with the fucking missile systems the Ukraine casualties could be reduced a great deal. They don't need to be very long range. 40 or 50 miles would be well in excess of the Russian artillery. There's been so much dithering about this, with more and more avoidable Ukrainian deaths every day.

 

[8ball]

Very likely - a grinding siege that costs Russia dearly in men and equipment and leaves them in control of the rubble. It terms of the overall progress of the war it is of little strategic importance - it still leaves the Russians on the wrong side of the river. What it would do would be to allow Russia to claim it has complete control of the region - and claim some sort of "victory" . Its not going to affect the success or otherwise of the likely Ukrainain counter attack - other than the extent to which it has weakened Russian military capability.
At Stalingrad the Germans besieged the city for months - slowly grinding their way forwards - pouring in more and more men and equipment and stripping their flanks in the process. The soviets put enough resources into the city to hold the Germans at bay - whilst building up forces on the northern and southern flanks. After several months the launched their counter attack, broke through weakened Axis lines on the north and south (mostly ill equipped Italian and Romanian troops) and trapped an entire German army in the city, cutting them off from their supplies lines until they were battered and starved into surrender.
It was a military disaster that fatally weakened the German army and turned the tide of the war.
This is the kind of thing Ukraine is trying to achieve - hold a defensive line, wearing out your enemy until you are strong enough to launch a counter offensive that breaks the entire line - so they have to retreat or risk being encircled.

I’ve said before that I’m neither an expert in such matters nor do I claim special knowledge. I’m sure I’m mostly a week or so out of date too.

I find it quite cheering to be disagreed with from multiple quarters.

What I think has no bearing on anything, frankly. Last thing I’d do is cheerlead for the Russians.

I’m crossing all my fingers and toes for the Ukrainians. They’ve got a hell of a fight on their hands.

not-bono-ever ‘s caveat applies for me too.

I just want this to end with as little bloodshed as possible.

 

[Dogsauce]

If the Americans and British would just hurry up with the fucking missile systems the Ukraine casualties could be reduced a great deal. They don't need to be very long range. 40 or 50 miles would be well in excess of the Russian artillery. There's been so much dithering about this, with more and more avoidable Ukrainian deaths every day.

It takes a while to train people up for these systems, they can’t just be fired up on arrival. Hopefully they’ll start training people right now even before stuff gets there. The kit they are getting has a max range of about seventy miles, though rumours are it can go a little further. Snake Island is well within that range from Ukrainian mainland.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It seems that the US has finally confirmed he will supply more advanced rocket systems and helicopters to Ukraine.

The medium-range high mobility artillery rocket systems are part of a new $700m tranche of security assistance for Ukraine from the US that will include helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more, according to two senior administration officials. The weapons package will be formally unveiled on Wednesday.

In a New York Times guest essay published on Tuesday, Biden said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will end through diplomacy but the United States must provide significant weapons and ammunition to give Ukraine the highest leverage at the negotiating table.

“That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Biden wrote.

“That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Biden wrote.

US to send advanced rocket systems to Ukraine as Russia tightens grip on Sievierodonetsk

Medium-range rocket systems, helicopters and anti-tank weapons form part of latest US package to help desperate situation in Donbas

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

I’ve said before that I’m neither an expert in such matters nor do I claim special knowledge. I’m sure I’m mostly a week or so out of date too.

I find it quite cheering to be disagreed with from multiple quarters.

What I think has no bearing on anything, frankly. Last thing I’d do is cheerlead for the Russians.

I’m crossing all my fingers and toes for the Ukrainians. They’ve got a hell of a fight on their hands.

not-bono-ever ‘s caveat applies for me too.

I just want this to end with as little bloodshed as possible.

I wonder how many years it'll take before the number of people who die from the effects of the war exceeds the number of people killed during it, the suicides, the effects of breathing in toxic chemicals, the injuries and so on. So in terms of bloodshed this war will keep taking for many years to come, even if it ended today

 

[Rob Ray]

Ukraine video dispatch: The recovery in Kharkiv

Alexis Daloumis reached the frontline city shortly after Ukrainian forces had pushed the Russian Army out of artillery range, and reports on the situation as it recovers from the assault. This is t…

freedomnews.org.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well, this is a bit special.

Turkey will donate a Bayraktar combat drone to Lithuania to be handed over to Ukraine after hundreds of Lithuanians crowdfunded nearly six million euros to buy it, Lithuania’s defence ministry said.

The manufacturer Baykar will deliver the TB2 advanced combat drone, painted in the colours of the Lithuanian and Ukrainian flags, in a few weeks, according to the ministry. LINK

 

[Dystopiary]

Russia's occupying forces stole from Chernobyl labs:

• 689 computers
• 344 vehicles
• 1,500 radiation dosimeters
• Irreplaceable software
• Almost every piece of firefighting equipment

The estimated cost $135 million

source: The Washington Post via Hanna Liubakova's twitter account

 

[Raheem]

Russia's occupying forces denazified from Chernobyl labs:

C4u.

 

[kebabking]

UK has asked the US - for they built them - for permission to transfer 'a number' of M270B1 GMLRS tracked vehicles: twelve tubes of rockety goodness on each.

GPS guided, 200lb warhead, 70+KM range. It will also fire any other M30/31 rocket in the family, extended range rocket will go to 130+KM, Alternative Warhead works like a big shotgun against troops and soft vehicles on the open.

If the Americans agree, Russian Artillery are in deep shit.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's been 100 days today, and a former Ukrainian defence minister has penned a good piece here.

We Ukrainians want peace more than anyone in the world. For about 100 days, we have been fighting Russian forces on the ground, in the sky, on the sea, and in cyber and information spaces. Defence experts originally gave us little hope of success. They changed their position when we showed our ability to resist. Now we need to demonstrate the strength to hold our course and resist the temptations of a false resolution.

In this existential battle for our future, ostensibly friendly or consoling pundits and politicians persistently suggest we should surrender to achieve peace more quickly. Of course, we do not want a war to take longer than necessary, but we will not get trapped into a bogus deal which will only make things worse.

Ukraine is desperate for peace, but we won’t sign up to a bogus Russian deal | Andriy Zagorodnyuk

Kissinger is wrong: urrendering territory would have terrible consequences for the world, says the former Ukrainian defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk

www.theguardian.com

 

[A380]

Well, this is a bit special.

I imagine the Baykar sales department can’t keep up with the enquiries at the moment… still good on them for this.

 

[ska invita]

oh yeah those lovely dogooder arms manufacturers, lovely to see them giving something back to the world

 

[DaveCinzano]

oh yeah those lovely dogooder arms manufacturers, lovely to see them giving something back to the world

Great buncha lads

 

[ska invita]

Great buncha lads

they work bloody hard actually to keep us all safe

 

[The39thStep]

Great buncha lads

Bayker have awards for how they promote diversity

 

[Supine]

oh yeah those lovely dogooder arms manufacturers, lovely to see them giving something back to the world

I thought they made little remote controlled planes?

 

[Raheem]

Nothing more diverse than bits of you ending up in random places.

 

[maomao]

They're certainly doing their bit to promote the numbers of disabled soldiers in the Russian armed forces.