Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

I can't read Twitter (and am becoming increasingly frustrated with it's use as a primary news source on here).

But. If it was the Russians (and yes it looks that way) then surely this is the precursor to an invasion of Moldova, no? Otherwise, why do it.

Happy days.

yeh it'd be much better if instead of posting tweets as a substitute for analysis the tweets could be relegated to footnotes or supporting evidence for what posters here actually say. surely that's what we're all more interested in, right, what people here think rather than what some tweeter of uncertain value thinks

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

I can't read Twitter (and am becoming increasingly frustrated with it's use as a primary news source on here).

But. If it was the Russians (and yes it looks that way) then surely this is the precursor to an invasion of Moldova, no? Otherwise, why do it.

Happy days.

Yeah. It was on the cards from the beginning. Remember Lukashenko letting it accidentally slip in the early days of the war?

From March 1st. (See enlargement top left):



Russians must think everyone is as stupid as they are

 

[Idris2002]

Regarding the "accidents" at various sites in Russia. I think these are very unlikely to be the work of Russian dissidents, due to the choice of targets. If you were going to pick up the gun and point it in that direction, you would be A) terrified, and B) so enraged that your anger would overcome your fear. Which means that you'd be more likely to point your weaponry at something with a face, rather than a technical research bureau or an oil storage depot.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah. It was on the cards from the beginning. Remember Lukashenko letting it accidentally slip in the early days of the war?

From March 1st. (See enlargement top left):

View attachment 320147

Russians must think everyone is as stupid as they are

i'm still not sure why there's an air cavalry patch on the map

 

[Idris2002]

Re; Transnistria and Moldova - the numbers of Russian troops in the former are limited, so their capacity to invade Moldova would be limited. Could this then be an attempt to entice a NATO member state (Romania) into direct participation in the war?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Re; Transnistria and Moldova - the numbers of Russian troops in the former are limited, so their capacity to invade Moldova would be limited. Could this then be an attempt to entice a NATO member state (Romania) into direct participation in the war?

It's an excuse by Russia to complete the take over of southern Ukraine, forming a land bridge to Transnistria, so they can protect them.

 

[Idris2002]

It's an excuse by Russia to complete the take over of southern Ukraine, forming a land bridge to Transnistria, so they can protect them.

Yeah, that makes more sense. Their big offensive in the east hasn't exactly been an outstanding success, so let's see how this bold new strategy works out for them.

 

[ska invita]

But. If it was the Russians (and yes it looks that way) then surely this is the precursor to an invasion of Moldova, no? Otherwise, why do it.

to maintain a sense of being a force to be feared? - a perception that has taked a partial knock of late

 

[frogwoman]

Re; Transnistria and Moldova - the numbers of Russian troops in the former are limited, so their capacity to invade Moldova would be limited. Could this then be an attempt to entice a NATO member state (Romania) into direct participation in the war?

Why would he do that?

 

[ska invita]

to maintain a sense of being a force to be feared? - a perception that has taked a partial knock of late

whats funny frogwoman ?

 

[planetgeli]

It does sort of make sense. But they need that excuse/justification?

 

[frogwoman]

to maintain a sense of being a force to be feared? - a perception that has taked a partial knock of late

The fact that they've taken a knock with their tanks being towed away by tractors etc. I was agreeing with you.

 

[ska invita]

The fact that they've taken a knock with their tanks being towed away by tractors etc. I was agreeing with you.

then again there'll be plenty of Ukrainians who have no doubt that the threat is very real, very deadly and very tortuous

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

It does sort of make sense. But they need that excuse/justification?

It's a so called Russian "tactical truth".

 

[DaveCinzano]

It's very unlikely that either Moldova, Transnistria or Ukraine would have done it

Could just be aggrieved listeners, talk radio can have that effect

 

[frogwoman]

Fed up with the pundits views of FC Tiraspol's transfer options and starting formations I guess

 

[frogwoman]

It would be funny if it was just some aggrieved listener in Bender fed up with some stupid opinion they heard and ended up starting a geopolitical incident

 

[Indeliblelink]

Some interesting remarks from Igor Stelkov on this pro-Russia site claiming Romanian troops have been replacing Moldovian troops in advance of going into Transnistria.
So claiming NATO will invade Transnistria by stealth as the reason Russia needs to protect it.

https://avia-pro.net/news/moldaviya-rumyniya-i-ukraina-mogut-atakovat-pridnestrove-s-tryoh-storon

The day before, several explosions thundered on the territory of Transnistria at once. So far, it has not been possible to establish who exactly is behind the incident, however, according to the ex-Minister of Defense of the DPR Igor Strelkov, this is just an excuse to move on to an open conflict in the region. Moreover, three countries can be drawn into it at once - Moldova, Romania and Ukraine.

“A large number of Romanian soldiers and officers have been brought into Moldova under the guise of ‘Moldovan military’. In particular, in all headquarters, a significant part of the Moldovan officers was replaced by officers of the Romanian army (in all key positions), and in the commandant companies of military units (performing the functions of the military police), the personnel were completely replaced by Romanians ", - said Strelkov.

Experts really expect destabilization of the situation in Transnistria. At the same time, apparently, it is important for the West that Romania participate in the military operation.

“Romania is, first of all, a NATO country. No matter how events develop in the future, NATO, on completely “legal” grounds, will be able to provide military assistance to Romania. Nevertheless, it is quite likely that Romania will not openly participate in this - in all likelihood, Romanian troops may be brought into Transnistria ostensibly to stabilize the situation, and after that provocations should be expected.”, - the expert marks.

At the moment, there is no information about the activity of NATO and the Moldovan military near the borders of Transnistria.

 

[DownwardDog]

i'm still not sure why there's an air cavalry patch on the map
View attachment 320149

It's the details of the US units that he wants us to believe are committed to the defence of Ukraine. Next to the 1st Cavalry insignia is the details of everything at Fort Hood, Texas. Above that are details of the 1st Infantry Division at Fort Riley, Kansas.

Fuck me, they'd know about it if they were simultaneously fighting 1st Cav and 1st Infantry.

 

[frogwoman]

Neither Romania or Moldova have any plans to invade Transnistria. Transnistria supplies a lot of Moldova's electricity. Both sides are quietly hoping the war goes away. The 'Pro Russian' nature of Transnistria vastly overstated

 

[tommers]

Some interesting remarks from Igor Stelkov on this pro-Russia site claiming Romanian troops have been replacing Moldovian troops in advance of going into Transnistria.
So claiming NATO will invade Transnistria by stealth as the reason Russia needs to protect it.

https://avia-pro.net/news/moldaviya-rumyniya-i-ukraina-mogut-atakovat-pridnestrove-s-tryoh-storon

so NATO want to get involved, so they use Romania, but they disguise them so that nobody knows it's NATO.

Genius. Those 4 dimensional chessboards are all used up at the moment.

 

[frogwoman]

Even Romanian nationalists who want a Greater Romania including Moldova generally specify they don't consider this Greater Romania to include Transnistria.

 

[frogwoman]

I've thought for a long time that Moldova should recognise Transnistria's independence, would go along way to reduce dependence on smuggling and Russian money

 

[Cid]

I can't read Twitter (and am becoming increasingly frustrated with it's use as a primary news source on here).

But. If it was the Russians (and yes it looks that way) then surely this is the precursor to an invasion of Moldova, no? Otherwise, why do it.

Happy days.

Problem being that social media (twitter and telegram) increasingly is a primary news source on this. Much of what the mainstream press is reporting comes from the various twitter feeds people are posting up, and the sources often have more detail/context than whatever gets crunched into the guardian news feed.

That said it would probably be good policy if people used thread reader app or something, should make it easier. e.g for flb's post:

Thread by @ignis_fatum on Thread Reader App

@ignis_fatum: ‼️After threats by the #Putin regime terrorists that Moldova will be the next target for an invasion , “explosions” occurred near the “FSB” building in Tiraspol which is located in north eastern #Moldo...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[IC3D]

Neither Romania or Moldova have any plans to invade Transnistria. Transnistria supplies a lot of Moldova's electricity. Both sides are quietly hoping the war goes away. The 'Pro Russian' nature of Transnistria vastly overstated

I saw a report on France24 and it was just a couple of very old belligerent pro Russian men and a queue of young people renewing Moldavian passports.

 

[DaveCinzano]

It would be funny if it was just some aggrieved listener in Bender fed up with some stupid opinion they heard and ended up starting a geopolitical incident

Let those among us whose stupid opinions have not precipitated global meltdown cast the first stone

 

[frogwoman]

I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Romania in June, really hope a war doesn't start there as well

 

[frogwoman]

 

[frogwoman]

I met a Transnistrian guy while living in Moldova who had a Moldovan passport, his mum had a Russian passport and his brother had a Ukrainian passport.

 

[Flavour]

But if the Transnistrians flee to Moldava proper then the Russians will have to go and protect them there, too!