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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Orhan Dragaš (EU expert for migrations and internal affairs, Chatham House, Royal Institute of International Affairs, and Royal United Service Institute) sets out why winning the Ukraine war is an existential matter for Russia and why the West should worry.
 
No idea if this is war relented, so I'll not clutter up the thread with twitter videos that can be watched via the link below, but we've had two other strange fires mention on here in the last few weeks, and now this, it does seem very plausible that some pro-Ukrainian saboteurs could be at work, in this case it could possibly even be a direct attack from Ukraine. Certainly something weird seems to be going in. :hmm:

Russian authorities have confirmed that oil storage tanks have caught fire at an oil depot in Bryansk, around 100 kilometres north of the Ukrainian border.

The Emergency Situations Ministry in Bryansk said they received a fire report at 2 am Moscow time, the Russian news agency Tass reported, adding that first responders were at the scene. No information was given as to the cause of the fires.

Videos posted on social media and satellite images on Nasa’s fire tracking website appeared to show large fires in at least two locations in Bryansk. LINK
 
Large explosions at the Russian Transneft-Druzhba oil depot in the Bryansk last night. Some speculation that the Druzhba pipeline may have been damaged which is the main one supplying oil to Europe.
 
No idea if this is war relented, so I'll not clutter up the thread with twitter videos that can be watched via the link below, but we've had two other strange fires mention on here in the last few weeks, and now this, it does seem very plausible that some pro-Ukrainian saboteurs could be at work, in this case it could possibly even be a direct attack from Ukraine. Certainly something weird seems to be going in. :hmm:
I know H&S are strictly optional at Russian factories but three is definitely a trend
 
That Link is March this year, you seem well up on history but piss poor at reading whats happening real time, heres another link that might inform
 
Vindman has interesting criticisms of Trump, Biden and Israel in a Haaretz interview How D.C. emboldened Putin, according to key Trump impeachment witness

Full text:

How D.C. Emboldened Putin, According to Key Trump Impeachment Witness​

Lt. Col. (ret.) Alexander Vindman, the whistleblower from Trump's first impeachment trial, told Haaretz how U.S divisions encouraged Putin to attack Ukraine, and why Israel should adopt a tougher stance on Moscow

Alexander Vindman feels vindicated. Nearly three years after the former National Security Council aide shocked Washington by telling congressional investigators about then-President Donald Trump’s pressuring of Ukraine to open an investigation into the son of his political rival Joe Biden, the world is now witnessing the importance of U.S. military aid to Kyiv – exactly what Trump threatened to withhold if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused to help him.

Trump’s first impeachment trial, in which Lt. Col. (ret.) Vindman’s testimony played a key role, boiled down to his attempts to withhold Javelin anti-tank missiles from Ukraine, in order to push Zelenskyy to “do him a favor” and taint Biden’s candidacy by digging up dirt on Hunter Biden.

In the five and a half weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, those missiles made it possible for the Ukrainian military to reportedly destroy many Russian tanks, seemingly derailing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war plans.

In a phone conversation with Haaretz this weekend, Vindman – an Iraq War veteran who immigrated to the United States from Ukraine with his siblings and father at age 3, said the then-U.S. president had been “really cheerleading for Vladimir Putin – in everything from taking Putin’s perspective on election interference to dividing NATO.” This created an atmosphere of “hyperpolarization in the U.S. political establishment, which suggested that the United States was weak and distracted,” he added.

“It was a hands-off policy under the Trump administration, after the scandal and all the way into the Biden administration,” he said, claiming that the January 6 attack on the U.S. Congress also gave Putin the impression that America was too distracted with internal problems to thwart Russia’s ambitions in Eastern Europe.

Vindman called it “a particularly important milestone in [Putin’s] decision to go after Ukraine, due to the Russian perspective that Ukraine would not garner a great deal of support when there are other bigger issues.

“Trump was out there bandwagoning for Putin in a way that suggested the Republicans would not punish Putin for his aggression, so that half of the political elites in America would not go in heavy. That was Putin’s assumption.”

This hyperpolarization “also undermined Biden’s efforts” in the days and weeks before the invasion, Vindman said, noting that some Republican lawmakers had opposed bills to fund Ukrainian forces and suspend trade with Russia and its ally Belarus.

Vindman, 46, served as director for European affairs on the NSC from July 2018 until February 2020, leaving a few months after testifying in Congress against Trump. He said he had already predicted last year that even if the United States were to apply maximum pressure to deter Russia, moving U.S. forces into Eastern Europe and levying sanctions on Moscow, it probably would not have been enough to avoid the war – “because there was just too much inertia behind it.”

He believed, though, that the Biden administration had not been doing enough to head off the war, instead preferring “an explicit policy of being reactionary” due to a “defeatist attitude” that there was nothing to be done. “They thought: Ukraine is going to lose. It’ll be over in a couple of days; why should we take any risk?” he argued.

Despite that criticism, Vindman said the Biden White House also did some “terribly important things” – such as “setting the foundation for a concerted democratic world to unite around imposing costs” and “sharing intelligence really quickly” to reveal Putin’s plans.

Now, he said, the United States and other democracies should “shed this idea that this is going to be over soon and embrace this notion that Ukraine could actually win. As shocking as that notion is, Ukraine could win. And it’s in the democratic world’s interest to have Ukraine win – because with Ukraine winning, we don’t have to all exist in this environment where ‘might makes right,’ where the strong could prey on the weak. And it really puts Iran and China on their heels.”

Regarding Israel, Vindman said that as a Jew, he wants to support the Jewish state and that at times he finds himself “kind of struggling with how much criticism to offer.”

He argued that it was “very shortsighted to side with an authoritarian regime and sacrifice Israel and the Jewish people’s values based on some misconception of short-term interests, because that is really what’s driving Israel’s foreign policy right now, he said.

The country staying on the sidelines and not adopting a tougher approach toward Russia was “having an impact on the standing of Israel,” he warned. Vindman also noted that Israel had resisted Ukrainian requests for military assistance, and unconfirmed reports that Russia has used Israeli drones.

Ultimately, he said, what is happening in Ukraine is “close to genocide. Putin doesn’t believe in the fact that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent state. And the idea here is: if the free world had done more to defeat Nazism in the 1930s, we wouldn’t have had the Holocaust. We now have an opportunity to prevent genocide in Ukraine.”
 
That Link is March this year, you seem well up on history but piss poor at reading whats happening real time, heres another link that might inform
Vucic is a scumbag but no Serbian president is going to join NATO
 
Kamil Galeev's latest is really very worthwhile, though it is also quite obscure.

Ostensibly it looks at the issue of Belarusan smuggling into Russia but it is really a potted biography of Lukashenko - who comes out of it as probably the most interesting political character in this drama right now.



I have to say that I had a bit of a soft-spot for him before after watching a slightly bonkers interview he did with BBC News about a year or two ago when he came across as extremely charismatic, very domineering, slightly mad and blessed with a vicious sense of humour. There's plenty more of that in the thread, which explains how he plays Putin like a fiddle.
 
Yep saw that. It’s a bit odd


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No doubt they will have "Property of V Zelensky" on sew-on nametags.
 
Are Russians so dumb as to believe this is done by Ukrainians?
Just spread so many lies the truth will be buried amongst them.
 
Well, the Russians are waving the nuclear cudgel about again... :rolleyes:

Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war is real​

Lavrov also acknowledged there's a possibility of the conflict escalating to nuclear weapons, though he also sounded a hopeful note about the prospects of a peace accord.
Speaking to the Russian First Channel on Monday, he said Moscow wanted to avoid "artificially" elevated risks of such a conflict.
"This is our key position on which we base everything. The risks now are considerable," Lavrov said.
"I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real, And we must not underestimate it."
Lavrov also accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine of "pretending" to negotiate, calling him "a good actor”.
"If you watch attentively and read attentively what he says, you'll find a thousand contradictions," Russia’s top diplomat said.
The foreign minister said last week that Moscow was committed to avoiding a nuclear war.
On Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that Lavrov’s latest comments were an indication Russia had lost its "last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine”.
"Thus the talk of a ‘real’ danger of WWIII. This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine," he tweeted.
Days after the invasion began back on 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear forces to be on alert.
The US and its Nato allies have said they do not want direct military intervention in Ukraine, in order to avoid the risks of a Third World War.

Source: Ukraine War feed (BBC)
 
Yet more horrors from Bucha - there's enough there to keep war crimes investigators busy for years, and it seems it could just be a microcosm of what happened in Mariupol and elsewhere.

“We already have a few cases which suggest that these women had been raped before being shot to death,” said Vladyslav Perovskyi, a Ukrainian forensic doctor who with a team of coroners has carried out dozens of autopsies on residents from Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka who died during Russia’s month-long occupation of the area.

“We can’t give more details as my colleagues are still collecting the data and we still have hundreds of bodies to examine,” he said.


 
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