Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[gosub]

What possible alternative, now, has Putin got to a long-term occupation of Ukraine? If he wants to win, that is.

RT was about an hour saying its just Donbass (its not) and no plan to hold.

 

[zahir]

What do you mean by sanctions that might hurt the U.K.?

Some suggestions here.

The western allies had kept their most potent financial sanctions in reserve in expectation of brinkmanship with Putin. Alongside hitting Russia’s biggest banks, other tools they could use include cutting the country off from the global Swift payments system and blocking access to US dollar clearing. Removing Russia from Swift, the international payments network that allows banks to exchange information about transactions, would be a heavy blow to its biggest banks and the country’s ability to trade outside its borders. It would also stymie Russia’s ability to recoup international profits from its oil and gas exports, which account for more than 40 per cent of its revenue. Swift, a Belgian co-operative, is used by more than 11,000 banks and financial institutions worldwide and handles 42mn messages a day, facilitating trillions of dollars worth of transactions. Russia itself accounted for 1.5 per cent of transactions in 2020. Being cut off from Swift would not prevent Russian banks from carrying out cross-border transactions, but doing so would become more costly and arduous. Foreign dealings would rely on the use of less efficient communication tools, such as email and telex.

The impact would also be damaging for Europe, which relies on Russia for more than 40 per cent of its natural gas supply and 26 per cent of oil. “There will be a huge fallout for European banks,” said a senior executive at a foreign lender with a large Russian presence. “We are not talking about Iran or North Korea; Russia is much more integrated into the flow of goods globally.” The person added: “You can open Pandora’s box, but be aware of what comes out. You would create a big mess in Russia, but also for cross-border payment services. How would Europe pay their gas bill without Swift?” US politicians called for the move following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 but faced resistance from European countries that felt it was too severe. The US, however, successfully lobbied to kick Iran off Swift in 2012 and again 2018 after the country was reinstated in 2016. Russia has attempted to limit the threat of losing access to Swift by developing its own system, though it has attracted few banks outside its borders and is used for just 20 per cent of domestic payments.

 

[elbows]

What possible alternative, now, has Putin got to a long-term occupation of Ukraine? If he wants to win, that is.

The biggest unknowns relate to how well the puppet regime goes down with the public in Ukraine.

Recent decades have revealed many hopes in the minds of the public about the future and what could be possible, including looking towards the rest of Europe. But also many divisions, disappointments with 'democracy', and a vast amount of blatant corruption within the political classes. And no shortage of external actors seeking influence, oligarch power moves, dodgy media ownership etc. There is potential for ongoing resistance, but also for a client state that falls into line and back within the sphere of relatively straightforward Russian influence.

 

[tommers]

 

[RD2003]

Wonder how long since the Ukrainian leadership last took a Moscow city break?

 

[Ax^]

some mumbling about Russia leading area of Moldova not sure if scale back is on his game plan atm

 

[andysays]

What is the extent of support for this amongst the russian population?

Are you planning to start a thread about Urban75's lack of empathy for ordinary Russian people who support Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

 

[Kaka Tim]

the corruption and shitiness of the Ukrainian state, the US/EU/NATO's provocative eastern policies and the wests' self aggrandising mishandling of the collapse of the communism are all academic now - none of that remotely excuses what the Russian state is doing - just fucking appalling and no good outcomes for anyone. WW2 analogies got trundled out far too often but the echoes of 1939 are a bit too fucking close to comfort IMHO: major power with chip on the shoulder run by ruthless, paranoid nationalists invades neighbour on utterly spurious grounds.
Meanwhile the rest of us watch the carnage unfold whilst being utterly powerless to do anything about it.
Global geo-politics have just taken a very dangerous and unpredictable turn. Putin is not playing by rules of rational real-politick - hes totally kicked the table over.
My kids (7 and 9) were listening to the news and getting really upset - I was having to tell them that we would be ok and everything would be fine and no we wouldn't end up at war - but I really don't know anything for certain about how bad this might get. Major economic shock and huge refugee crises looks pretty nailed on - and thats just for starters. Who the fuck knows anymore? We could be rationing food and fuel within a year.

 

[gosub]

What is the extent of support for this amongst the russian population?

Mainstream media completely behind. Putin (predictablY) Some black square with "No to war appearing amongst Russian social medai influencers

 

[Mirrors_Lie]

This.

Russia has a big army and airforce. Ukraine has a decent ish army and old kit and fuck all airforce

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania have ever worse air forces, in fact, they don't have any, they also don't have any tanks, and only brown water capabilities for their Navies, Albania and Ireland also don't have either an air force or any tanks. Russia has plenty!

 

[RD2003]

the corruption and shitiness of the Ukrainian state, the US/EU/NATO's provocative eastern policies and the wests' self aggrandising mishandling of the collapse of the communism are all academic now - none of that remotely excuses what the Russian state is doing - just fucking appalling and no good outcomes for anyone. WW2 analogies got trundles out far too often but the echoes of 1939 are a bit too fucking close to comfort IMHO: major power with chip on the shoulder run by ruthless, paranoid nationalists invades neighbour on utterly spurious grounds.
Meanwhile the rest of us watch the carnage unfold in whilst being utterly powerless to do anything about it.
Global geo-politics have just taken a very dangerous and unpredictable turn. Putin is not playing by rules of rational real-politick - hes totally kicked the table over.
My kids (7 and 9) were listening to the news and getting really upset - I was having to tell them that we would be ok and everything would be fine and no we wouldn't end up at war - but I really don't know anything for certain about how bad this might get. Major economic shock and huge refugee crises looks pretty nailed on - and thats just for starters. Who the fuck knows anymore? We could be rationing food and fuel within a year.

To slightly paraphrase somebody: 'We may not be interested in history, but history is interested in us.'

 

[cupid_stunt]

That's a good thread, spot on.

 

[elbows]

the corruption and shitiness of the Ukrainian state, the US/EU/NATO's provocative eastern policies and the wests' self aggrandising mishandling of the collapse of the communism are all academic now - none of that remotely excuses what the Russian state is doing - just fucking appalling and no good outcomes for anyone. WW2 analogies got trundled out far too often but the echoes of 1939 are a bit too fucking close to comfort IMHO: major power with chip on the shoulder run by ruthless, paranoid nationalists invades neighbour on utterly spurious grounds.
Meanwhile the rest of us watch the carnage unfold in whilst being utterly powerless to do anything about it.
Global geo-politics have just taken a very dangerous and unpredictable turn. Putin is not playing by rules of rational real-politick - hes totally kicked the table over.
My kids (7 and 9) were listening to the news and getting really upset - I was having to tell them that we would be ok and everything would be fine and no we wouldn't end up at war - but I really don't know anything for certain about how bad this might get. Major economic shock and huge refugee crises looks pretty nailed on - and thats just for starters. Who the fuck knows anymore? We could be rationing food and fuel within a year.

I dont care for excuses, I care for explanations, detail and context.

I expect many energy issues to become huge stories that impact everyone this century, its just a question of when that becomes blindingly apparent to all.

As for Putin and what he has done now, its an escalation but its not really a strange new universe to me compared to what we already saw years ago - the seeds of what Russia deems possible now were sown by what they were able to get away with in regards the annexation of Crimea. And that twitter thread about the dodgy bear poking analogy mentions that Russia has hardly been passive in recent decades.

 

[Idris2002]

 

[cupid_stunt]

Thank you, Poland.

Poland is preparing a medical train to transport Ukrainians wounded in the Russian invasion, the country’s health ministry has told Reuters. In a statement to the newswire, Poland’s health ministry said: " Poland is preparing to accept migrants from Ukraine, including Ukrainian citizens affected by the armed conflict. We will do everything to ensure that every person who enters the territory of Poland has access to healthcare, including hospitalisation. Beds are being prepared in hospitals for the admission of the wounded.

Poland’s Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said that Poland had prepared a list of 120 hospitals where people affected by the conflict in Ukraine could be treated.

“In total, we estimate at the moment that it would be possible to admit several thousand patients injured as a result of hostilities, including those seriously injured,” he told local media.

 

[zahir]

 

[The39thStep]

Some suggestions here.

Ah so Bimbles post was about Johnson’s failure to warn/ brief the public and the possibility of Putin imposing these sanctions ?

 

[ska invita]

contentious

 

[zahir]

Ah so Bimbles post was about Johnson’s failure to warn/ brief the public and the possibility of Putin imposing these sanctions ?

What?

 

[The39thStep]

What?

Did you read Bimbles post ie the one I was replying to ?

 

[ska invita]

Thank you, Poland.

Lviv was the capital of one incarnation of Poland - a close link between the regions

(ETA a beautiful city i have heard)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Lviv was the capital of one incarnation of Poland - a close link between the regions

Indeed, and Poland has been planning to receive refugees for some weeks, let's hope the rest of Europe steps up to help.

 

[RD2003]

The firm Mrs 2003 works for cancelled all orders with their Russian customers as early as 2 days ago, demanding immediate payment of all outstanding debts.

Think I smell redundancies in the air.

 

[zahir]

Did you read Bimbles post ie the one I was replying to ?

Yes. I think maybe you're misreading her post.

 

[The39thStep]

Yes. I think maybe you're misreading her post.

The post where she talks about sanctions that will hurt the U.K. ?

 

[ska invita]

Indeed, and Poland has been planning to receive refugees for some weeks, let's hope the rest of Europe steps up to help.

This is the same Poland who lets 'brown' people freeze to death on the same border, lest we forget

 

[editor]

Brave woman.

Imagine living in a country where you can be arrested just for saying no to war.

 

[zahir]

The post where she talks about sanctions that will hurt the U.K. ?

Surely the point is that sanctions that hit Russia may also have effects on the countries imposing them. Anyway I expect bimble can answer for herself.

 

[bimble]

Surely the point is that sanctions that hit Russia may also have effects on the countries imposing them. Anyway I expect bimble can answer for herself.

Yeah sorry, just that, stupid to imagine Johnson would say anything like that though it’s not his style to be truthful or tell bad news.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

They don't mention Japan much in the gpw plus the USSR benefitted from loads of us (and UK) military aid, not to take away that 90% of German casualties on the eastern front and the vast numbers killed in the USSR.

Well of course, but the USSR liberated Berlin rather than the mighty USA was my point.