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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Belarusian opposition radio (and troop movements) seem to suggest Belarus will enter the war in next 1-2 days despite much opposition in Belarusian military circles & near total opposition amongst the wider civilian population. A further sign of desperation. Belarus' military is pretty outdated, and not rated highly.


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If that's the case there's going to be some fragging.
 
The Belarusian KGB is stepping up to ‘purge’ the Belarusian railway of unreliables. The rail war disrupting troop & material movement is really winding them up.


That'll go well. I wonder how effectively a railway that has been gutted of essential personnel for "unreliability" is going to work. It's Stalin's officer purges all over again.
 
The use of this word 'cleansing' makes me feel sick. I think Zelensky was right when he suggested that Putin really believes that Ukraine is stuffed full of anti-russian nazis requiring anihilation not just defeat.

Have you watched Oliver Stone's film? Let's ignore the fact it's a piece of shit and just note that he does interview Putin and Putin describes full well why he thinks, or suggests, Ukraine is indeed full of Nazis.
 
Have you watched Oliver Stone's film? Let's ignore the fact it's a piece of shit and just note that he does interview Putin and Putin describes full well why he thinks, or suggests, Ukraine is indeed full of Nazis.
I haven’t and not sure I could stomach it.
 
Quite a bit of chat that the Russians have released some casualty data.

Just short of 10,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces dead, another 14,000 injured. That figure - for what it's worth, and there's debate - won't include contractors from groups like Wagner, or from the Ministry of the Interior, who have their own troops in Ukraine.

It's broadly in line with some of the numbers that were being floated, but it's high - about two-thirds of all of Soviet losses in a decade in Afghanistan.
 
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Quite a bit of chat that the Russians have released some casualty data.

Just short of 10,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces dead, another 14,000 injured. That figure - for what it's worth, and there's debate - won't include contractors from groups like Wagner, or from the Ministry of the Interior, who have their own troops in Ukraine.

It's broadly in line with some of the numbers that were being floated, but it's high - about two-thirds of all of Soviet losses in a decade in Afghanistan.
It wouldn't be reasonable to assume that it'll continue as one-sidedly as that - if Russia starts deciding to go for more brutal options perhaps via his "vengeance weapons" (Fuel-air, hypersonics, chemicals), I'm sure he could quickly reap vast numbers of casualties quite cheaply. But - even allowing for the tendency for us to see the Ukrainian victory stories more - it does seem clear that the Russian military system is quite rotten at the core. I saw a comment recently about the absence of an NCO tier in their military, which means that smaller groups have little autonomy, and must essentially wait for word from a senior officer as to what to do next. Which has the handy side-effect, of making those senior officers geo-locatable, and able to be assassinated...and yet the system seems to have been incapable of adapting even to that threat. Someone is going to be writing quite the PhD thesis on the use of public communications systems in 21C warfare... :)

Of course, one of the big "lag factors" in any effect that this loss rate might have on Russian public opinion is the vice-like grip the Kremlin have on information. It's pretty obvious that some stuff is getting through, but I wonder if it will become enough to have any influence on the Kremlin itself? I quietly hope that someone on the inside is arranging for some kind of coup whereby Putin gets presented with a...physical ultimatum he just can't refuse. It would seem to be the option likely to result in the least loss of life. I guess there aren't the number of convenient African/South American republics someone like him can be exiled to, these days... :hmm:
 
Quite a bit of chat that the Russians have released some casualty data.

Just short of 10,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces dead, another 14,000 injured. That figure - for what it's worth, and there's debate - won't include contractors from groups like Wagner, or from the Ministry of the Interior, who have their own troops in Ukraine.

It's broadly in line with some of the numbers that were being floated, but it's high - about two-thirds of all of Soviet losses in a decade in Afghanistan.

Oops.
 
Just read a thing that pointed out nobody has seen anything of Russian casualty evacuation or medical response personnel, nothing with red crosses on, and this being one factor in why their losses are so high.

I've seen - and apparently so has twitter - stuff from Ukraine that suggests that medical support in the Russian Army means some rubber bands to act as tourniquets...
 
Just read a thing that pointed out nobody has seen anything of Russian casualty evacuation or medical response personnel, nothing with red crosses on, and this being one factor in why their losses are so high, they just leave their men to die.
Russian military doctrine doesn't really espouse the "we bring everyone home" notion that Western, and especially US, militaries tend to go for. Cynically, it's probably mainly a motivating factor - if you know that taking one for the team is going to mean something to someone, and they'll at least try to save you or bring back your mortal remains, you're more likely to take that risk, and die - be recognised - as a hero. If you've seen your fallen comrades rotting by the side of the road, or dying slowly of treatable injuries, it's not exactly going to inspire you to do much beyond a) what you're told, and b) trying to survive.
 
Just read a thing that pointed out nobody has seen anything of Russian casualty evacuation or medical response personnel, nothing with red crosses on, and this being one factor in why their losses are so high, they are more likely to just leave their men to die.

There were ambulances stuck in that traffic jam. I don't buy the assumptions behind 'more likely to just leave their men to die'. There will be good human beings in the Russian medic squad. And there will be a medic squad. Even if the system is rotten, good people will still exist.
 
Latest report from my Ukrainian in laws: some refugees from Mariupol have finally arrived in their town. Apparently there are several women who have been taken to the local kindergarten, all sitting catatonic on the floor. Able to sip water if it's physically tipped into their mouths from a cup but not eating, not speaking, not even responding to their children's cries.

It really is time we stopped letting weak, angry, cruel little men run entire civilisations.
 
Like being hung drawn and quartered?
For my part, the limit on assassination approaches would have to factor in a significant bit of "let them not make me be any more like them then absolutely necessary".

A quick and painless kill solves the problem, without debasing (any more than the minimum) everyone involved.
 
Latest report from my Ukrainian in laws: some refugees from Mariupol have finally arrived in their town. Apparently there are several women who have been taken to the local kindergarten, all sitting catatonic on the floor. Able to sip water if it's physically tipped into their mouths from a cup but not eating, not speaking, not even responding to their children's cries.

It really is time we stopped letting weak, angry, cruel little men run entire civilisations.
Sadly there seems to be no chance of that changing anytime soon. Quite the opposite.
 
There were ambulances stuck in that traffic jam. I don't buy the assumptions behind 'more likely to just leave their men to die'. There will be good human beings in the Russian medic squad. And there will be a medic squad. Even if the system is rotten, good people will still exist.
Yeah, I don’t think it’s about bad people just a stinking system which doesn’t prioritise the injured. This is the thing I was referring to, it’s quite long, it does mention the medical supplies in the traffic jam.
 
Latest report from my Ukrainian in laws: some refugees from Mariupol have finally arrived in their town. Apparently there are several women who have been taken to the local kindergarten, all sitting catatonic on the floor. Able to sip water if it's physically tipped into their mouths from a cup but not eating, not speaking, not even responding to their children's cries.

It really is time we stopped letting weak, angry, cruel little men run entire civilisations.
I would say this, wouldn't I, but we are looking down the barrel of a massive mental health catastrophe, not just by those directly traumatised by their own experience, but indirectly, vicariously, and in all kinds of ways. I'm already picking up on levels of anxiety amongst clients about, eg., the prospect of nuclear war, and others deeply upset by the images of human suffering in Ukraine. We are going to reap the whirlwind.
 
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