Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kabbes]

Kind of interesting article here on the reluctance a lot of people have to acknowledging that, as he puts it, Ukraine is winning. Not a dovish voice.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

Winning? Their troops are crossing the border into Russia and starting their assault on Moscow? Or does he just mean not losing as much as feared?

 

[kabbes]

Somewhere along the line, Lloyds syndicates will almost certainly have a hand in insuring it.

Oligarchs’ policies have all been cancelled, to my knowledge.

 

[bimble]

All the stuff about sanctions targeting specific people, the underlying idea is that if those rich men get cross enough Putin’s in trouble, but it doesn’t actually seem true cos what can they do nothing much, he’s made them dependent on him for everything they do still have.

 

[Spymaster]

Those things I don’t think they’d much bother Putin though. He’d be quite happy if people can’t flee the country anymore and he doesn’t show any signs of caring about whether or not his population suffers as a result of his choices.

The immediate consequences might not affect him directly but sowing the seeds of discord among regular Russians is what will eventually bring him down.

 

[Spymaster]

Oligarchs’ policies have all been cancelled, to my knowledge.

Even the ones that aren't sanctioned?

 

[bimble]

Winning? Their troops are crossing the border into Russia and starting their assault on Moscow? Or does he just mean not losing as much as feared?

Winning means denying your opponent their goals, and territorial integrity I think.

 

[Pickman's model]

Even the ones that aren't sanctioned?

Especially them

 

[bimble]

The immediate consequences might not affect him directly but sowing the seeds of discord among regular Russians is what will eventually bring him down.

Yeah that would be nice but absolutely no signs of it yet.

 

[Spymaster]

Yeah that would be nice but absolutely no signs of it yet.

Because it's not happening in any significant way yet.

 

[bimble]

Because it's not happening in any significant way yet.

So you think that’s what Biden is trying to threaten him with, if you do chemical weapons we will do more sanctions and hope that you’ll eventually be ousted as a result. Can’t see him quaking in his Italian boots.

 

[bimble]

Offering a new life in California for all defecting Russian soldiers would be a proper threat.

 

[Pickman's model]

Offering a new life in California for all defecting Russian soldiers would be a proper threat.

Sure they'd be welcomed with open arms if they joined fire services there

 

[Spymaster]

So you think that’s what Biden is trying to threaten him with, if you do chemical weapons we will do more sanctions and hope that you’ll eventually be ousted as a result. Can’t see him quaking in his Italian boots.

I don’t know. There may be a military type response instead/as well. Just pointing out that the sanctions that Russia are currently under are tiny compared to what could happen.

 

[emanymton]

So you think that’s what Biden is trying to threaten him with, if you do chemical weapons we will do more sanctions and hope that you’ll eventually be ousted as a result. Can’t see him quaking in his Italian boots.

They will never do anything of real substance because at the end of the day to them the lives of people in Ukraine are nothing next to money and the accumulation of wealth. A single billionaire has more worh in their eyes than a million ordinary Ukrainians.


Good I am so depressed by this. On the one hand I want to step back a bit and follow this less closely, bit on the other that feels like a betrayal of people in Ukraine who don't have that choice.

 

[Spymaster]

Winning? Their troops are crossing the border into Russia and starting their assault on Moscow? Or does he just mean not losing as much as feared?

Yes. This concept of “winning” must seem pretty hollow to Ukrainians in Kharkiv and Mariupol at the moment.

 

[kabbes]

Even the ones that aren't sanctioned?

Well, I don’t want to get too specific, but broadly yes. If you’re a Russian businessman rich enough to own a multi-million pound yacht, it’s unlikely that your yacht is still insured by the London Market.

 

[kabbes]

Winning means denying your opponent their goals, and territorial integrity I think.

I think that’s called a no-score draw.

 

[Spymaster]

Well, I don’t want to get too specific, but broadly yes. If you’re a Russian businessman rich enough to own a multi-million pound yacht, it’s unlikely that your yacht is still insured by the London Market.

Nice. Does that mean that a lot of them are currently floating around uninsured, given Lloyd’s near monopoly on maritime insurance?

 

[emanymton]

They will never do anything of real substance because at the end of the day to them the lives of people in Ukraine are nothing next to money and the accumulation of wealth. A single billionaire has more worh in their eyes than a million ordinary Ukrainians.


Good I am so depressed by this. On the one hand I want to step back a bit and follow this less closely, bit on the other that feels like a betrayal of people in Ukraine who don't have that choice.

I mean the French state are obviously taking the the pressure to withdraw form Russia very seriously.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/21/renault-moscow-russia-nestle

 

[Pickman's model]

They will never do anything of real substance because at the end of the day to them the lives of people in Ukraine are nothing next to money and the accumulation of wealth. A single billionaire has more worh in their eyes than a million ordinary Ukrainians.


Good I am so depressed by this. On the one hand I want to step back a bit and follow this less closely, bit on the other that feels like a betrayal of people in Ukraine who don't have that choice.

You're no good to anyone if you're so depressed or burnt out. Look after yourself

 

[emanymton]

You're no good to anyone if you're so depressed or burnt out. Look after yourself

Thank you.

 

[bimble]

I think that’s called a no-score draw.

But if someone broke into my house & tried to steal my stuff and at the end of the altercation they buggered off empty handed you could but probably wouldn’t call it a draw.

 

[ska invita]

Kind of interesting article here on the reluctance a lot of people have to acknowledging that, as he puts it, Ukraine is winning. Not a dovish voice.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

its the appetite from the West to feel like Someone Is Winning like its a sport that annoys me - the reality is so much more complex and shit than that. When the peace deal is finally signed everyone will have lost

 

[Yossarian]

I think that’s called a no-score draw.

I think that's how the Americans like to see the Vietnam outcome.

 

[kabbes]

Nice. Does that mean that a lot of them are currently floating around uninsured, given Lloyd’s near monopoly on maritime insurance?

High Net Worth policies typically look something like this:

https://www.zurich.co.uk/-/media/Business/Documents/ZPC/722874.pdf

Note that it has a cancellation clause:

We may cancel your policy where there is a valid reason for doing so by giving you 7 days’ notice in writing to your last known address. We will give you a refund in proportion to the time left until your current period of insurance is due to run out.

Insurers are arguing that being an oligarch in a state that has been sanctioned for invading another state, with the risk that all assets will be frozen, comprises a valid reason. Cancellation notices were issued many weeks ago and I’ve not heard of any that were refused (although there may, of course, be some I don’t know about).

And yes, would you sell an oligarch insurance on their property right now? Especially given that expropriation for sanctions is a legally messy thing even if you are right that it isn’t insurable. Neither would I, and by “I”, I mean “insurers”.

 

[ska invita]

I think that's how the Americans like to see the Vietnam outcome.

Chomsky makes the good case that the US won that war - they achieved their broadest political objectives.
This could also apply to Russia in the end. Or not.

 

[kabbes]

But if someone broke into my house & tried to steal my stuff and at the end of the altercation they buggered off empty handed you could but probably wouldn’t call it a draw.

I also wouldn’t call it a “win”. What have I gained compared to before they invaded?

The problem with the attitude that not being annihilated comprises a “win” is not just academic. Arguably, it’s why Britain didn’t rebuild its broken institutions post-WWII. It was busy congratulating itself for “winning” the war. Historically speaking, if you won a war, that means you gained territory, riches, slaves or whatever. For the first time, really, it just meant that you hadn’t lost those things.

 

[bimble]

I also wouldn’t call it a “win”. What have I gained compared to before they invaded?

The problem with the attitude that not being annihilated comprises a “win” is not just academic. Arguably, it’s why Britain didn’t rebuild its broken institutions post-WWII. It was busy congratulating itself for “winning” the war. Historically speaking, if you won a war, that means you gained territory, riches, slaves or whatever. For the first time, really, it just meant that you hadn’t lost those things.

From the point of view of the invaded country though, existing is a win.

 

[emanymton]

But if someone broke into my house & tried to steal my stuff and at the end of the altercation they buggered off empty handed you could but probably wouldn’t call it a draw.

In real world terms Ukraine lost the moment they were invaded.

In military terms it depends on the objectives of the 2 sides, achieving yours and dennying the enemies theirs is victory.

I have little real knowledge of this but it seems to be that Ukraine's objectives are more modest than Russia's, wanting only to preserve as much of the status quo as possible. This I think is one of their advantages.

 

[tim]

Kind of interesting article here on the reluctance a lot of people have to acknowledging that, as he puts it, Ukraine is winning. Not a dovish voice.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

I've seen little such reluctance on this thread. I dread the carnage that is to come, as both sides seem quite capable of continuing the war.