Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[two sheds]

You're forgetting tradition. Poison has always been a somewhat lowbrow means of assassination; far better to have a good, visible event that sends the right message.

"if it comes to a choice between having a good, visible event that sends the right message and on the other hand just taking the money and running, then I for one could do with the exercise”

 

[steeplejack]

Just read a thing that pointed out nobody has seen anything of Russian casualty evacuation or medical response personnel, nothing with red crosses on, and this being one factor in why their losses are so high, they are more likely to just leave their men to die.

Not true- their wounded & dead end up in hospitals in southern Belarus. There are plenty of them. Hospitals in Mazyr, Gomel, Babryusk have all taken in significant numbers of Russian wounded.

Of course such is the nature of this war that plenty of bodies can’t be reached. Another utterly cretinous & pointless waste of young lives by greedy, paranoid old men.

 

[Aladdin]

For my part, the limit on assassination approaches would have to factor in a significant bit of "let them not make me be any more like them then absolutely necessary".

A quick and painless kill solves the problem, without debasing (any more than the minimum) everyone involved.

Oh sorry i thought you were looking for something that would send a message...? Feel a bit like I said the wrong thing now...☹

I dont actually care how he goes. I don't see him as a human anymore.. so...just so long as he does... and soon.

 

[bimble]

Not true- their wounded & dead end up in hospitals in southern Belarus. There are plenty of them. Hospitals in Mazyr, Gomel, Babryusk have all taken in significant numbers of Russian wounded.

Of course such is the nature of this war that plenty of bodies can’t be reached. Another utterly cretinous & pointless waste of young lives by greedy, paranoid old men.

Yes, I know the morgues are full in Belarus. I was just saying what I’d read, which was about the importance of mefhh oh so support in armies for survival rates & how crap Russia is at it. I’m sure they don’t abandon all the injured, just a lot more than Ukraine does, for logistical reasons.

 

[existentialist]

Oh sorry i thought you were looking for something that would send a message...? Feel a bit like I said the wrong thing now...☹

I dont actually care how he goes. I don't see him as a human anymore.. so...just so long as he does... and soon.

There are messages, and messages. There's probably some kind of rulebook on how to conduct a coup, but one of the things that is generally likely to be in such a book would be "make it unambiguously obvious that Entity A has removed Entity B from power, and is now - pro tem - in charge".

Item 2 in the rulebook is probably "take over the main means of broadcasting information".

 

[Dogsauce]

Russian military doctrine doesn't really espouse the "we bring everyone home" notion that Western, and especially US, militaries tend to go for. Cynically, it's probably mainly a motivating factor - if you know that taking one for the team is going to mean something to someone, and they'll at least try to save you or bring back your mortal remains, you're more likely to take that risk, and die - be recognised - as a hero. If you've seen your fallen comrades rotting by the side of the road, or dying slowly of treatable injuries, it's not exactly going to inspire you to do much beyond a) what you're told, and b) trying to survive.

This article (Kyiv Indepemdent) ie interesting, in that it states that most dead Russian soldiers have no identification documents or dog tags - these are said to be removed by officers, apparently the motivation is that you could die unrecognised, so best not bother dying. Grim stuff really. It does make you wonder how accurate their casualty figures might be, there are probably some injured unable to be identified, no idea if some are captured or MIA. How would they even know an accurate figure? This might just be the number of bodies recovered, in which case the total is probably much more.

I have seen pictures of ambulances, and also read reports of them being used to ferry ammunition.

 

[Supine]

This article (Kyiv Indepemdent) ie interesting, in that it states that most dead Russian soldiers have no identification documents or dog tags - these are said to be removed by officers, apparently the motivation is that you could die unrecognised, so best not bother dying. Grim stuff really. It does make you wonder how accurate their casualty figures might be, there are probably some injured unable to be identified, no idea if some are captured or MIA. How would they even know an accurate figure? This might just be the number of bodies recovered, in which case the total is probably much more.

I have seen pictures of ambulances, and also read reports of them being used to ferry ammunition.

I thought the dog tags were removed so officers could let management know who had died. Nothing nefarious. That’s how it was in WW2 films anyway.

 

[Dogsauce]

I thought the dog tags were removed so officers could let management know who had died. Nothing nefarious. That’s how it was in WW2 films anyway.

I think in the circumstances described in the article there were no survivors to remove tags or report back.

 

[Cid]

I thought the dog tags were removed so officers could let management know who had died. Nothing nefarious. That’s how it was in WW2 films anyway.

They're usually duplicates afaik. Either a kind of snap-off thing or two tags... One is left with the body, other sent to relevant authority.

And as above of course there are many circumstances where only opposing forces will be around for casualties.

 

[emanymton]

Quite a bit of chat that the Russians have released some casualty data.

Just short of 10,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces dead, another 14,000 injured. That figure - for what it's worth, and there's debate - won't include contractors from groups like Wagner, or from the Ministry of the Interior, who have their own troops in Ukraine.

It's broadly in line with some of the numbers that were being floated, but it's high - about two-thirds of all of Soviet losses in a decade in Afghanistan.

If this is accurate then there really is no chance of them taking a major city? Right? They just don't have the numbers to soak up the losses that would entail?

 

[Artaxerxes]

If this is accurate then there really is no chance of them taking a major city? Right? They just don't have the numbers to soak up the losses that would entail?

They have a lot of numbers and they probably can but they'll effectively destroy their own army and its institutional memory in the process.

 

[strung out]

If this is accurate then there really is no chance of them taking a major city? Right? They just don't have the numbers to soak up the losses that would entail?

I wouldn't be surprised to see them take Mariopol over the next couple of weeks, but it will be very bloody and costly. Once/if they do that, I reckon that's the point they might try and cut a deal, having effectively secured a land bridge from Donbas to Crimea. I don't expect Ukraine to take them up on that though.

 

[kebabking]

If this is accurate then there really is no chance of them taking a major city? Right? They just don't have the numbers to soak up the losses that would entail?

I think it's a moveable feast, it's a mix of what Russia can physically put into the field and for how long, what Russia is politically willing to put into the field and for how long - and what economic damage it's prepared to accept and for how long - the damage that each individual city is able to withstand before surrendering, and then the speed that the Russians can pivot their artillery from each captured city to the next target.

I do think there's a stalemate in the tealeaves - the Russians are burning a big hole on their ability to maintain an army in the field, it seems pretty obvious that the welfare of the average soldier isn't a priority, but keeping the guns firing is, and it takes a huge amount of ammunition and fuel to keep an artillery brigade firing at a target the size of Mariopol, or Kharkiev, and that all has to be brought by road through hostile territory - they may simply run out of trucks, which means the guns will run out of shells.

Quite how that stalemate might unfold,and how Vlad might try to dig himself out of it, is a matter beyond my tea leaves...

 

[Raheem]

Quite a bit of chat that the Russians have released some casualty data.

Just short of 10,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces dead, another 14,000 injured. That figure - for what it's worth, and there's debate - won't include contractors from groups like Wagner, or from the Ministry of the Interior, who have their own troops in Ukraine.

It's broadly in line with some of the numbers that were being floated, but it's high - about two-thirds of all of Soviet losses in a decade in Afghanistan.

The report has apparently now been removed, although plenty of people saw it, so it's not a faked image.

 

[teqniq]

Latest report from my Ukrainian in laws: some refugees from Mariupol have finally arrived in their town. Apparently there are several women who have been taken to the local kindergarten, all sitting catatonic on the floor. Able to sip water if it's physically tipped into their mouths from a cup but not eating, not speaking, not even responding to their children's cries.

It really is time we stopped letting weak, angry, cruel little men run entire civilisations.

What with that AP article I posted earlier and this thread originally posted apparently on FB by someone still there, it is not too hard to see why:

 

[Yossarian]

What with that AP article I posted earlier and this thread originally posted apparently on FB, it is not too hard to see why:

Was the one you posted before the edit the first-ever tweet?

 

[teqniq]

Was the one you posted before the edit the first-ever tweet?

I dunno sorry some sort of fuckup on my part I think. It certainly wasn’t what I intended to post, hence the edit. I’m using my phone as not at home so mistakes are more likely, apologies.

 

[gosub]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them take Mariopol over the next couple of weeks, but it will be very bloody and costly. Once/if they do that, I reckon that's the point they might try and cut a deal, having effectively secured a land bridge from Donbas to Crimea. I don't expect Ukraine to take them up on that though.

You don't do this much damage without causing some linguring anamosities, no matter what happens.

 

[LDC]

I've seen - and apparently so has twitter - stuff from Ukraine that suggests that medical support in the Russian Army means some rubber bands to act as tourniquets...

In Ukraine in 2015 I saw and handled a Russian military trauma kit; the equivalent of the tourniquet, hemostatics, dressing, etc that's commonplace and carried by pretty much every soldier in Europe now. It was like something from the 1970s, and I'm willing to bet the training they get matches it.

 

[bimble]

Biden has again been talking about ‘severe consequences’ should chemical weapons be used by Russia. Maybe that will mean something to Putin but I can’t imagine what it is supposed to threaten him with, seeing as direct engagement has been explicitly ruled out. If there are weapons they’re holding back from giving to the Ukrainians but intend to release only in case of a chemical attack that seems strange, like what’s happening is not quite bad enough to warrant fighter jets or whatever yet?

 

[LDC]

Biden has again been talking about ‘severe consequences’ should chemical weapons be used by Russia. Maybe that will mean something to Putin but I can’t imagine what it is supposed to threaten him with, seeing as direct engagement has been explicitly ruled out. If there are weapons they’re holding back from giving to the Ukrainians but intend to release only in case of a chemical attack that seems strange, like what’s happening is not quite bad enough to warrant fighter jets or whatever yet?

US/Russia relations do seem to be deteriorating, but no idea what will happen if chemical or biological weapons are used (more likely to be the former isn't it?). Could it be just more sanctions rather than military action?

 

[bimble]

Probably just more sanctions, yeah.

 

[Pickman's model]

US/Russia relations do seem to be deteriorating, but no idea what will happen if chemical or biological weapons are used (more likely to be the former isn't it?). Could it be just more sanctions rather than military action?

Don't suppose biden will want to have a red line that has no consequences if crossed

 

[Spymaster]

There's loads more thsat can be done non-militarily. So far the sanctions have been relatively limited to banks, individuals, and organisation that are said to have links to the regime. That's a small percentage of Russian interests. Sanctions could be extended to other businesses and people, assets seized (that hasn't happened yet; they've been frozen), maybe the decision no longer to recognise Russian passports, travel bans, expulsions ... all sorts.

 

[bimble]

Kind of interesting article here on the reluctance a lot of people have to acknowledging that, as he puts it, Ukraine is winning. Not a dovish voice.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[bimble]

There's loads more thsat can be done non-militarily. So far the sanctions have been relatively limited to banks, individuals, and organisation that are said to have links to the regime. That's a small percentage of Russian interests. Sanctions could be extended to other businesses and people, assets seized (that hasn't happened yet; they've been frozen), maybe the decision no longer to recognise Russian passports, travel bans, expulsions ... all sorts.

They should specifically mention Putin’s yacht.

 

[Rimbaud]

Not sure if this is deserving of its own thread, but there's a bit of talk of Russia using Republika Srpska to open up a new front in Bosnia.

I don't know a lot about that region tbh, but this article I found seems credible enough:

Russia’s New Front with the West in Bosnia

The West needs to act now to prevent the disintegration of Bosnia and the opening of a new confrontation with Russia in the Balkans. NATO integration under a shortened procedure offers a solution.

www.rusi.org

As the shelling of cities in Ukraine continues and the number of victims increases, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has found time in his busy war schedule to hold a call with Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the tripartite Bosnian presidency. The call was presented as the continuation of talks on the implementation of agreements reached in Moscow at a meeting between Dodik and Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2021.

Such a development signals Russia’s intention to expand its theatre of activity beyond Ukraine and the post-Soviet space. The West should act promptly before a new wave of Russian-led destructive activity hits the Balkans.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is experiencing the biggest crisis in its post-war history. Officials from the Republika Srpska (RS) entity, led by Milorad Dodik, are busy tearing up state-level institutions, initiating a number of processes that constitute secession in all but name. This could lead to the eventual disintegration of the country. After adopting a draft law establishing a High Judicial and Prosecution Council in RS, a move that essentially destroyed the rule of law in BiH, next on the agenda is tax administration and the re-establishment of an independent RS army – the same one that was convicted of ethnic cleansing and genocide during the war in Bosnia. To achieve these objectives, Dodik is ready to use violence.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns about what could happen in Bosnia – namely the use of brute force to redraw borders and carve out new territories. Dodik’s adventures are thoroughly supported by Moscow as part of its greater geopolitical objective of undermining Western support for Bosnia’s NATO and EU path. Not to be outdone, Dodik recently hailed the emergence of two new states in Ukraine, a talking point regularly employed by the Russian leadership. Moreover, local media in RS have started producing war-like propaganda boosting the pro-Russian Bosnian Serb separatist regime. These statements could be the catalyst in the implementation of a long-term plan for a new front in Moscow’s confrontation with the West.

As Russia’s invasion plan in Ukraine is clearly not going as Putin intended, Lavrov’s call to Dodik is understood by Sarajevo as a push to activate the already announced RS secession plan. In that case, Russia would recognise RS and provide all necessary support, particularly in the form of Wagner Group paramilitary units, which could provoke armed conflict in BiH. As was the case during the aggression on BiH in the 1990s, Serbia would serve as a logistical base for Serbian national and pro-Russian militias. Larger quantities of ‘Kornet’ ATGM recently purchased for the Serbian army, as well as other arms, are likely to find their way into the hands of Serbian secessionists in BiH.

Such a staged conflict in BiH – in the ‘soft underbelly’ of Europe, before the eyes of EUFOR and the NATO’s symbolic presence – would produce a considerable media and psychological backdrop, distracting the world from Russia’s plan to annihilate Ukraine. Predictions of a staged conflict are probably part of the reason for the decision to increase EUFOR troop numbers in BiH, which are still insufficient to guarantee peace and security in the country.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not sure if this is deserving of its own thread, but there's a bit of talk of Russia using Republika Srpska to open up a new front in Bosnia.

I don't know a lot about that region tbh, but this article I found seems credible enough:

Russia’s New Front with the West in Bosnia

The West needs to act now to prevent the disintegration of Bosnia and the opening of a new confrontation with Russia in the Balkans. NATO integration under a shortened procedure offers a solution.

www.rusi.org

Happy days are here again

 

[bimble]

There's loads more thsat can be done non-militarily. So far the sanctions have been relatively limited to banks, individuals, and organisation that are said to have links to the regime. That's a small percentage of Russian interests. Sanctions could be extended to other businesses and people, assets seized (that hasn't happened yet; they've been frozen), maybe the decision no longer to recognise Russian passports, travel bans, expulsions ... all sorts.

Those things I don’t think they’d much bother Putin though. He’d be quite happy if people can’t flee the country anymore and he doesn’t show any signs of caring about whether or not his population suffers as a result of his choices.

 

[Spymaster]

They should specifically mention Putin’s yacht.

Somewhere along the line, Lloyds syndicates will almost certainly have a hand in insuring it.

Pass a law banning Brit firms from insuring Russian owned assets. Alone, this would be an enormous blow to the oligarchs. If we then took their yachts to the middle of the Atlantic and had various (non-NATO, obvs) air forces use them for target practice, there'd be some very meaningful facepalming going on in Moscow, as well as giving the rest of us a jolly good grin.