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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I really hope Ukraine has a good plan. This is tough to watch because Ukraine is going to fight for their country's existence. And they most likely won't win. If the anger in Putin is an indicator of what happens on the other end its going to be ugly for politicians, military and anyone who keeps on fighting.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Does have the feeling that it won't just be the Ukrainian military Russian troops will have to watch out for. Plenty of stories like this kicking about

www.theguardian.com

Business brisk at Kyiv gun shops as Ukrainians rush to buy arms

Threat of invasion, and draft law giving Ukrainians permission to carry firearms, leads to long queues inside weapons stores
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

Reading that makes me think, if Putin does try to annex Ukraine beyond Donetsk and Luhansk, he may lose in the end.
 
Rimbaud said:
Reading that makes me think, if Putin does try to annex Ukraine beyond Donetsk and Luhansk, he may lose in the end.
Click to expand...

They must know that, unless the plan is install some regime and then retreat, but surely it won't last if they did that? Unless there's some long standing brutal repression. The likelihood of an invasion being a successful plan long term does make me hold onto some hope that maybe the invasion won't happen...

But if he has gone this far and then doesn't surely he'll look weak? Unless it's just the domestic audience he's bothered about, as he can spin it to them however he wants.
 
Last edited:
steeplejack said:
Maximise the chaos, maximise the division, appear to risk all whilst risking not all that much...I suspect even he doesn't know how this will end. Putin is an opportunist rather than a grand strategist.
Click to expand...

Yeah, he's winging it.
Unfortunately he's better at winging it than Europe and the USA would be had they been handed the full plan.
 
TopCat said:
A senior US administration official said that Russia could be cut out of the international electronic payments system, Swift, in a future raft of sanctions.

“We are not taking Swift off the table. It will remain an option that we can deploy, depending on how Russia makes its next move,” the official said.
Click to expand...
That sounds like it'll lead to some bad blood, but Putin be rattled or will he just shake it off? Either way, looks like it could be one of the most unstable times for the region since 1989.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Does have the feeling that it won't just be the Ukrainian military Russian troops will have to watch out for. Plenty of stories like this kicking about

www.theguardian.com

Business brisk at Kyiv gun shops as Ukrainians rush to buy arms

Threat of invasion, and draft law giving Ukrainians permission to carry firearms, leads to long queues inside weapons stores
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

Going to be a lot of very confused people on the right / libertarian right in the US on reading things like that - on the one hand there is Trump and Pompeo (and Carlson and most of the other alt-right types) boosting Putin, on the other there is several hundred thousand people about to do a live action Red Dawn remake (something many of the right wing part of the gun lobby has dreamed of doing for years).
 
splonkydoo said:
There's a lot of obvious disagreements here between folk, but yeah, I agree with a lot of this. Especially about his statements. He was a trained KGB officer and knows how to wage an information war better, and more confidently, than any other current leader on the world stage.

Despite some underlying political disagreements between people here, it's also why I don't like some of the tit for tat posts going on. I'm pretty sure 99% of people on urban here are not pro-war, or 'Putinist', but are all just trying to understand what the fuck is going on. And let's not pretend either that we are mostly arm-chair experts.
Click to expand...

He's never struck me as being particularly skilled in this confidently waging the information war malarky. That brow-beating of the minister was embarrassing, if you're going to do live broadcasts, you need to make sure that everyone knows their lines. He also looked tired and old: a long way from all those bare-chested horse-riding photo-heroics.

He comes across, at least to me, as a chancer, not a scheming eminence grise from a cheap 1930's novel.
 
tim said:
..
He comes across, at least to me, as a chancer, not a scheming eminence grise from a cheap 1930's novel.
Click to expand...
Doesn't matter though how he comes across, it only matters what he does and so far it isn't looking pretty, in fact his view of the immediate future seems grim and bleak for quite a lot of people.
 
agricola said:
Going to be a lot of very confused people on the right / libertarian right in the US on reading things like that - on the one hand there is Trump and Pompeo (and Carlson and most of the other alt-right types) boosting Putin, on the other there is several hundred thousand people about to do a live action Red Dawn remake (something many of the right wing part of the gun lobby has dreamed of doing for years).
Click to expand...
I bet it will be the utter Nazi adoring arses who led the so called Ukrainian gran dad revolution who rush first into the abyss. Hope so anyway.
 
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