Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Raheem]

Perhaps... though the problem with the puppet government idea is that such a government can't stand without the current leadership (or other legitimate leadership) in place and able to deliver it all the time; anything else would need an occupation force of Russians / from the republics (or both) which they are never going to accept.

True, but I think that goes to underscore that what we are talking about is not a serious or workable idea.

It also highlights a fundamental problem that Russia's whole adventure relies on there being a level of resignation and acceptance from the Ukrainian public which just isn't there.

 

[gosub]

 

[Cid]

Just gonna repost the reuters piece that quotes Peskov for reference.

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Kremlin says Russian military action will stop ‘in a moment’ if Ukrai…

archived 7 Mar 2022 12:48:29 UTC

archive.ph

 

[gosub]

 

[ska invita]

Yeah but this is all very easy to say from a distance... Principles are easy when it's not you making the choices. You are saying that the inhabitants of those places should just put their hands up and spend the rest of their lives under occupation. These aren't insignificant markers on a map; Mariupol is the size of Cardiff. Kherson Belfast. Melitopol York. The people who live there have turned out to protest in the face of armed troops... They have and need agency in this and shouldn't be used as bargaining chips. Carving up nations like this is Imperialism. It's what got use here, and it's no solution.

That said yes, there may be some compromises that can be made, I don't now enough about Donbas (or indeed the rest of the place) to have the vaguest idea about what might be acceptable there. I'm more disagreeing with this principle that a lack of compromise on some things represents a bullish desire to cling onto lost territory.

i dont know if my tone of voice is coming across in my posts
if you think im saying "Hey it easy why dont they just stop fighitng and give away the Donbas" that couldnt be further from the truth. If it sounds like "its easy for me to say" , of course its not.
People are sacrificing their lives over this - i very much appreciate that.

 

[agricola]

True, but I that goes to underscore that what we are talking about is not a serious or workable idea.

It also highlights a fundamental problem that Russia's whole adventure relies on there being a level of resignation and acceptance from the Ukrainian public which just isn't there.

Their idea isn't, but what I am trying to say is that I think there is a possibility of getting a serious and workable idea out of it.

It presents the opportunity for the rest of the world to become involved in it, without taking a side and in their interest; if the Russians go on to reject something reasonable then it then presents the opportunity of getting them more involved in measures to stop the war (edit) too.

 

[Dogsauce]

It’s not going to be viable as a state if they keep fucking up all the infrastructure like this. And I know that is kind of the point.

For civilians facing some very cold temperatures over the next few nights it’s going to be bleak. Hope the invaders suffer greater discomfort.

 

[LDC]

Russia may not treat any foreign volunteers well if they get caught. See my earlier Angola note

No, I would expect a nasty ending in a ditch, or if you're lucky some kickings and then paraded in front of the Russian/world media.

 

[gosub]

UKrane already DID a peace deal with Russia, they gave up their nukes as part of it so they could go their seperate ways. Then Russia starts redrawing the map....and uKraine fights back. SO now Russia wants to keep the bits of the map that it has redrawn and wants Ukraine to rid itself of a military that has given Russia a bloody nose. How can you not look at that and go "won't that just make it easier for Russia to redraw the map again?"

 

[Indeliblelink]

Trying to claim Ukraine was developing WMDs to justify the war?

Ukrainian biolabs working with pathogens of plague destroyed

More than 320 containers were destroyed in Lviv, in which pathogens of leptospirosis, tularemia, brucellosis and plague were found

english.pravda.ru

On March 6, the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said that the special operation in Ukraine revealed facts of an emergency cleansing of traces of a military biological program that Kyiv was developing. The program was funded by the US Department of Defense, Konashenkov added.

https://tass.com/world/1418311

"The list and excessive amount of biopathogens are clear evidence experiments under military-biological programs had been staged there," he stressed.
Kirillov said that the program’s supervisors from the Pentagon were perfectly aware that if Russian specialists had a chance to study these collections, it would be possible to prove with a high degree of probability that Ukraine and the United States were in breach of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.
"In particular, it would become clear that synthetic biology methods were being tested there to enhance the microorganisms’ pathogenic properties. This is the sole explanation why the samples were disposed of in such haste," Kirillov said.

 

[LDC]

Just gonna repost the reuters piece that quotes Peskov for reference.

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Kremlin says Russian military action will stop ‘in a moment’ if Ukrai…

archived 7 Mar 2022 12:48:29 UTC

archive.ph

Just been to a talk where that gets mentioned, the expert opinion was he's a Kremlin mouthpiece who lies for cash, and is to be trusted as much as a not very trustworthy thing.

 

[LDC]

Where are Pravda going with this? Trying to claim Ukraine was developing WMDs to justify the war?

Ukrainian biolabs working with pathogens of plague destroyed

More than 320 containers were destroyed in Lviv, in which pathogens of leptospirosis, tularemia, brucellosis and plague were found

english.pravda.ru

Lies, obfuscation, denials, excuses, setting the scene, etc etc.

 

[ska invita]

UKrane already DID a peace deal with Russia, they gave up their nukes as part of it so they could go their seperate ways.

I thought it was the USA who convinced Ukraine to give up all the nukes they ended up with on their patch after the Soviet Union collapsed?
Doesnt matter either way tbh

 

[andysays]

Report on the situation at Chernobyl mentioned above

Ukraine war: Chernobyl workers' 12-day ordeal under Russian guard​

More than 100 workers at Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear power plant - the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster in 1986 - have been stuck there for more than 12 days, unable to leave after Russian forces seized the plant on the first day of the invasion. Another 200 Ukrainian guards, who'd been in charge of security at the time of the assault, also remain trapped.

Workers continue to go about their duties and the atmosphere is said to be calm, but the BBC has been told that the conditions inside are difficult, with food and medicine limited. There are also growing concerns that stress could be impacting their ability to safely carry out their duties at the nuclear site

 

[bimble]

It’s not going to be viable as a state if they keep fucking up all the infrastructure like this. And I know that is kind of the point.

For civilians facing some very cold temperatures over the next few nights it’s going to be bleak. Hope the invaders suffer greater discomfort.

The Russian soldiers must be suffering very seriously from the cold. Where do they go to get any heat, or sleep. Must be a complete hell for them.

 

[Ax^]

Ha just saw that.
Really nicely written article about it here:

Protective barriers erected at Russian embassy after truck drives through gates

‘I’ve done my bit, lads,’ says Leitrim businessman Desmond Wisley

www.irishtimes.com

i'm just pissed of the first line from the fella when arrested by the guard and asked why he did it was not to report

"that would be an Ecclesiastical matter"

 

[two sheds]

I see it's been described by some irish as a "special parking operation"

 

[kebabking]

The Russian soldiers must be suffering very seriously from the cold. Where do they go to get any heat, or sleep. Must be a complete hell for them.

To an extent, they are used to it: Russian soldiers get treated like shit. Barracks that are little more than sheds, food you wouldn't give a dog, and some eyewatering brutality and indifference.

 

[two sheds]

Yes I remember seeing a programme years ago about the evil bullying that goes on in the russian military

 

[Dogsauce]

7-year out of date ration packs I think were shown in some recent footage.

 

[ohmyliver]

Lies, obfuscation, denials, excuses, setting the scene, etc etc.

Also tying in with stuff that's being pushed via QANON Telegram channels, and places like r ed pil l news.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

If the Russians capture a couple of have-a-go English knobends, how does that play out? Who's to say them being there isn't state sanctioned, particularly in light of Lamentable Liz's public endorsement.

That'd just be spun as NATO member sending troops.

Nah, some randoms signing up to fight, even if they are ex-forces, and even if they were daft enough to do so because of what Liz Truss said, doesn't equate to a NATO member sending troops. Might be nice cover for some private sector special ops though, ex-forces means deniability.

 

[friedaweed]

It’s all very strange. they look excited in that way that soon to be dead boys do on the hundred year old off to war photos. Idk what is going on with the dude right at the back. View attachment 313344

Is that the Jolly Green Giant in the middle or the Dwarf from LOTR?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Report on the situation at Chernobyl mentioned above

Ukraine war: Chernobyl workers' 12-day ordeal under Russian guard​

I was talking earlier about the Zaporizhzhia power station, where a similar thing happened. Nobody in or out for I think 10 days. Mrs Frank has relatives who live in the nearby town.

 

[Dystopiary]

Hope these trains are some that get disrupted by Belarusian hackers!

 

[Dogsauce]

Also tying in with stuff that's being pushed via QANON Telegram channels, and places like r ed pil l news.

Which is kind of weird given Ukraine is somewhere where communism is explicitly banned (and treated like other countries ban nazis), I would have thought the US far right would eagerly have their back, but that would involve thinking about it for themselves rather than sticking their faces straight in the misinformation trough and guzzling up whatever shit Putin has coiled out for them.

 

[Bingoman]

BBC are reporting Loud explosions heard in the port of Odessa

 

[elbows]

I appreciate the effort to retain some skepticism and avoid getting carried away - but I think it is also an error to trust too much that people in charge of operations have a good, well thought out plan and know what they are doing. History is replete with examples of people in similar positions to Putin making catastrophic misjudgements, and this looks like it is another one. Main misjudgement being that Russian speaking Ukrainians would welcome them, and that the government in Kyiv would flee.

I just dont understand what information we are supposed to have that can provide confidence that even if the Russian plans have been full of mistakes and failures, that they cannot still take Kyiv within weeks. If they fail to take it within 2 weeks of the start of the invasion, have we actually been provided with detailed analysis that we can use to presume they cannot take it after 3 weeks or 4 weeks or a bit longer?

I dont even know what strength of force Ukraine has positioned to defend Kyiv. I dont know if they have the ability to get even a single plane up in the air at the moment, but then I'm not exactly spending multiple hours a day searching for that information. It seems like a good while since we heard about any Ukrainian planes taking on the Russians, but again I may have missed news on that front. Does anyone have any recent examples that would help fill that void?

I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility that things could drag on for a very long time, but there are a lot of possibilities somewhere in between. And I cannot bring myself to lurch from the idea that they would take Kyiv in a few days to concluding that they cannot possibly take it in weeks. Even when I factor in numerous failings and setbacks on the part of Russia, analysts seem to have left plenty of wiggle room for major Russian gains in the weeks to come. I appreciate what narratives are popular here and elsewhere at the moment, and I would like to entertain such possibilities, but its still too soon for me to do so. And since my opinions are of no relevance to things like morale on the Ukrainian side, I dont have to.

 

[NoXion]

Which is kind of weird given Ukraine is somewhere where communism is explicitly banned (and treated like other countries ban nazis), I would have thought the US far right would eagerly have their back, but that would involve thinking about it for themselves rather than sticking their faces straight in the misinformation trough and guzzling up whatever shit Putin has coiled out for them.

The US right has proven again and again that they wouldn't know communism if it suddenly rose up and collectivised their entire arses. "Communism" is just a synonym for "something I don't like".

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Curious to see how the balance of power in the EU has flipped from Germany to France in the space of 10 days. Seems they thought economic might Uber Alles.

Wonder if Germany are too compromised because of Gerhard Schröder's commercial interests?