Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[discokermit]

Ukraine Russia live as Putin agrees ceasefire & gives civilians 5 hours to flee

Tensions continue to rise in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with over a million people having fled the latter due to missiles raining down upon their cities

www.irishmirror.ie

5 hours ceasefire.

"From 10am Moscow time (7am UK time), the Russian side declares a ceasefire and the opening of humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to leave Mariupol and Volnovakha," Russian news agencies quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying."

what if the azov battallion doesn't let them leave? as has already been reported.

 

[andysays]

This doesn't look great

10:00 Ukraine says ceasefire not holding along evacuation route

A ceasefire agreed between Russia and Ukraine to allow civilians to leave the city of Mariupol is not being fully observed, according to the city council.
In a message posted on Telegram, the council said that fighting was taking place in the Zaporizhzhia region, which is where the humanitarian corridor ends.
Ukrainian officials are negotiating with the Russian side to confirm the temporary ceasefire along the entire evacuation route, the message said

 

[scalyboy]

The Finnish President is in Washington today. He had a meeting this morning with the Director, CIA, and one this afternoon with President Biden.

I doubt he'll be going to Moscow anytime soon...

Finland (and Sweden) are in a very tricky position right now, aren’t they? Putin has openly threatened them with dire consequences if they attempt to join NATO.

Yet the evidence of the past fortnight (Ukraine) is that if a country isn’t a NATO member and is invaded by Russia, NATO / USA / EU won’t come to their aid by sending their own armed forces to assist, or by enforcing a no-fly zone (understandably so, not wishing to start WW3).

Seems to me this would tend to encourage rather than discourage Finland / Sweden from applying to join NATO (despite this further adding to Putin’s fears of NATO encirclement).

But to do so would go against these two Nordic countries’ long-standing position of neutrality / non-alignment, something I believe they are quite proud of, hence hosting various peace talks (Helsinki Accords etc); being seen as a neutral ‘honest broker’ with no axe to grind either way.

I was in Finland last year, and - while this probably sounds naive - I hadn’t before realised how close the border with Russia is.
You could drive from Helsinki to St Petersburg in around the same time it would take to drive from London to Newcastle.

This proximity is bound to be an ever-present reality for Finland.

Especially as there are a few elderly Finns still alive who remember the Winter & Continuation Wars during WW2, 1939 when the USSR grabbed a big chunk of Karelia in eastern Finland, which it still possesses, and 1941 when Finland was part of Barbarossa in an unsuccessful attempt to regain these lost territories. In the end they had to fight a third war in 1945 to kick out German troops from northern Finland)

I was told that one reason why Helsinki had such a modern appearance, with few old buildings, is because of USSR bombing during WW2 (“Russkies bombed our sauna”)

 

[IC3D]

Could end up with? There are already organised fash fighting on both sides - and Putin has a huge amount of support on the US alt right, which has the easiest access to weapons.

The US alt right?

 

[The39thStep]

If there's a "But who are the real fascists?" competition, I think the autocratic, nationalist regime currently bombing the shit out of civilian areas while invading its neighbour wins.

In Spain in 1936, fighting for freedoms would have involved being on the same side as Stalinists, and I can only imagine how many thousands of pages the thread would have extended to if Urban75 had been around at the time.

Let me make it abundantly clear that I am not saying that Ukraine is fascist. Claims by Putin to be fighting an antifascist war are absolute bollocks. On the other hand, it would be ridiculous to deny that there are armed fascist groups in Ukraine and have been for over a decade. They are a minority, however, they are a dangerous minority and have embedded themselves in training civilians and are looking to recruit international fighters. Anyone foolish enough to be thinking up of following the link that Bimble posted needs to exercise extreme caution.

Take your point about Spain 1936.

 

[nogojones]

Brave fucjers!

I'm more hopeful for this sort of resistance and the hope that it spreads to Russia.

 

[nogojones]

As the The39thStep posted fighting for freedoms weirdly might envolve joining a battalion of neo Nazis alongside other neo Nazis from across Europe.

To fight contingants of neo-nazis from Russia.

 

[bimble]

Yeah it's a bit of a stretch to think it's an endorsement.

tbf if i thought this website was frequented by lots of young able bodied gung-ho types, i'd not have linked to it.

 

[scalyboy]

Interesting to note that Norway, which, unlike Sweden, has a land border with Russia in the very far north, is a NATO member, indeed a founding member since 1949.

Maybe one reason why Norway joined NATO (while Sweden & Finland didn’t) was because of their experience of German occupation during WW2, a puppet leader (Quisling), and an active resistance movement…

 

[nogojones]

i have never worked at a place, in britain, where stealing from work isnt ubiquitous. and that is just on the shop floor. at management level the corruption is at a much higher level. f'rinstance i personally built parts for a very big house extension in richmond belong to a feller dishing out work on a very big government project, that all got booked to the very big government project.

We used to steal on principle. Anything that wasn't screwed down. If it was screwed down, we'd pinch a screwdriver first.

 

[LDC]

Gonna be a fuckton of unaccounted-for weaponary lying around after this is over as well. Just like there was for ISIS to pick up and run with after the Iraq war, and the Taliban last year etc.

I think that's a massive over-stated worry. There's already a fuck tonne of weaponry in that part of the world, this stuff is likely not going to make a big difference. Most of the more sensitive hardware (AT and AA stuff) will get used or destroyed. And Russia will be to blame for taking far more to the area anyway.

 

[Aladdin]

Finland (and Sweden) are in a very tricky position right now, aren’t they? Putin has openly threatened them with dire consequences if they attempt to join NATO.

Yet the evidence of the past fortnight (Ukraine) is that if a country isn’t a NATO member and is invaded by Russia, NATO / USA / EU won’t come to their aid by sending their own armed forces to assist, or by enforcing a no-fly zone (understandably so, not wishing to start WW3).

Seems to me this would tend to encourage rather than discourage Finland / Sweden from applying to join NATO (despite this further adding to Putin’s fears of NATO encirclement).

But to do so would go against these two Nordic countries’ long-standing position of neutrality / non-alignment, something I believe they are quite proud of, hence hosting various peace talks (Helsinki Accords etc); being seen as a neutral ‘honest broker’ with no axe to grind either way.

I was in Finland last year, and - while this probably sounds naive - I hadn’t before realised how close the border with Russia is.
You could drive from Helsinki to St Petersburg in around the same time it would take to drive from London to Newcastle.

This proximity is bound to be an ever-present reality for Finland.

Especially as there are a few elderly Finns still alive who remember the Winter & Continuation Wars during WW2, 1939 when the USSR grabbed a big chunk of Karelia in eastern Finland, which it still possesses, and 1941 when Finland was part of Barbarossa in an unsuccessful attempt to regain these lost territories. In the end they had to fight a third war in 1945 to kick out German troops from northern Finland)

I was told that one reason why Helsinki had such a modern appearance, with few old buildings, is because of USSR bombing during WW2 (“Russkies bombed our sauna”)

They have a massive underground bunker / city for all of Helsinki.

City beneath Helsinki offers shelter from Russia's potential threat

Beneath Helsinki's surface lies nearly 500 separate underground facilities and 300 kilometres of tunnels that exist as the last line of defence against Finland's superpower neighbour.

www.abc.net.au

And

Underground Helsinki | My Helsinki

Helsinki now has some 400 separate facilities and tunnels, the deepest of which is about 100 m below sea level. Some of these can be turned into a shelter in just 72 hours....

www.myhelsinki.fi

 

[Yossarian]

Anyone foolish enough to be thinking up of following the link that Bimble posted needs to exercise extreme caution.

I looked at the link, out of curiosity - there was more of a filter for recruits than I expected, it gave me the address of the nearest Ukrainian consulate and instructed me to apply for an interview and specify what documents I had proving a record of service in the military or law enforcement.

 

[LDC]

I looked at the link, out of curiosity - there was more of a filter for recruits than I expected, it gave me the address of the nearest Ukrainian consulate and instructed me to apply for an interview and specify what documents I had proving a record of service in the military or law enforcement.

Traffic warden anti-tank brigade or train penalty fares inspector commando?

E2A: of course this sprung to mind...

 

[bimble]

This doesn't look great

10:00 Ukraine says ceasefire not holding along evacuation route

from that it looks like there’s been no ceasefire at all. Could it be just total failure of communications within Russian army ? What would be the point of announcing a ceasefire and then going ha tricked you.

 

[LDC]

What would be the point of announcing a ceasefire and then going ha tricked you.

Propaganda war, Russia just making noises to look reasonable.

 

[scalyboy]

Thinking of the courageous anti-war demonstrators in various Russian cities, does anyone know whether there were similar protests during the two Chechen wars, Grozhny in particular being pummelled into oblivion?

I don’t recall seeing video clips of demos & protests (although TBF the Chechen wars preceded mass phone / camera phone ownership)

 

[andysays]

from that it looks like there’s been no ceasefire at all. Could it be just total failure of communications within Russian army ? What would be the point of announcing a ceasefire and then going ha tricked you.

Yeah, it could be failure of communications rather than deliberate bad faith, but either way it's bad news for those in and around Mariupol

10:52 Evacuation of Mariupol has been postponed

The evacuation of civilians from Mariupol has been postponed, according to the Mariupol city council. It says the Russian side has not been observing the temporary ceasefire in place.
It says residents should disperse and find places of shelter, and that more information will be given soon.
A few minutes ago the city's deputy mayor told the BBC that Mariupol was still being shelled, and there are also reports that fighting is ongoing near the end of the evacuation route.

 

[Yossarian]

Traffic warden anti-tank brigade or train penalty fares inspector commando?

My only experience of enforcing laws would qualify me to serve as a "lackadaisically asking underage drinkers for ID" commando.

 

[scalyboy]

Propaganda war, Russia just making noises to look reasonable.

Agree with this.
Putin says any old shite without feeling in any way bound to adhere to any assurances he’d made. Remember how, just before the invasion, he or Lavrov was saying that talk of invasion was untrue and was simply ‘the West’ stirring the shit.

(Not that ‘the West’ is innocent of such double-talk and deception - assuring Russia in the early 1990s there would be no eastward NATO expansion, for example…)

 

[The39thStep]

I looked at the link, out of curiosity - there was more of a filter for recruits than I expected, it gave me the address of the nearest Ukrainian consulate and instructed me to apply for an interview and specify what documents I had proving a record of service in the military or law enforcement.

My point was more about the fash on the ground over there and their assimilation into the resistance rather than the interview process.

 

[bimble]

Propaganda war, Russia just making noises to look reasonable.

To look reasonable for half an hour & then look the opposite? Idk. Lots of stuff around about communications & chain of command being one of their big problems, could well be a fuckup.

 

[rekil]

Good call, I think middle-aged men with bad eyesight who can't speak Ukrainian and seem lukewarm at best on the merits of resisting the Russian invasion are probably not the kind of recruits they are looking for.

Always room for someone to play the role of the whining coward that can't do anything right and just wants to surrender but eventually redeems himself by jumping on a grenade to save the rest of the unit. I'd apply but in this instance I'm happy to defer to someone even more qualified.

 

[LDC]

To look reasonable for half an hour & then look the opposite? Idk. Lots of stuff around about communications & chain of command being one of their big problems, could well be a fuckup.

Yeah that also possible. One of the things that people here (UK/EU/etc.) really struggle to get their heads round (not saying you) is the confusion and chaos that Russia uses as a weapon. Announcing something and then not doing it, funding far right groups while claiming to be anti-fascist, saying they'll negotiate with no intention of doing so, is not incompetence, but calculated behaviour.

 

[scalyboy]

They have a massive underground bunker / city for all of Helsinki.

City beneath Helsinki offers shelter from Russia's potential threat

Beneath Helsinki's surface lies nearly 500 separate underground facilities and 300 kilometres of tunnels that exist as the last line of defence against Finland's superpower neighbour.

www.abc.net.au

And

Underground Helsinki | My Helsinki

Helsinki now has some 400 separate facilities and tunnels, the deepest of which is about 100 m below sea level. Some of these can be turned into a shelter in just 72 hours....

www.myhelsinki.fi

They are well prepared then. I guess that’s what happens when you’ve lived through 45 years of Cold War with a bloody great bear next to you And more recently with Putin’s ‘greater Russia’ rhetoric.

I think I went into a section of this bunker system last year - a below street level shopping mall in Helsinki.
Imagine if Shopping City in Wood Green, the Kings Mall in Hammersmith, or Westfield (Shepherds Bush or Stratford) doubled up as bomb shelters

As a citizen of the UK I feel so very fortunate not to be living in a country that’s under threat like Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine obvs - or like many of the world’s people in other countries who are similarly under threat…

Not forgetting the privileges of plentiful food, a home, a welfare state & NHS (though admittedly both are rapidly being dismantled), democracy (again, of sorts - democracy in the UK is many respects in name only)

[edit: added last two paragraphs - off my nut on espresso and war fear this morning]

 

[LDC]

Apologies if already posted, Bellingcat and others OSINT map of stuff happening in the area Follow the Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map - bellingcat

Map is here Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub

 

[platinumsage]

(Not that ‘the West’ is innocent of such double-talk and deception - assuring Russia in the early 1990s there would be no eastward NATO expansion, for example…)

Not true:

Myth 03: ‘Russia was promised that NATO would not enlarge’

www.chathamhouse.org

Exposing the myth of Western betrayal of Russia over NATO’s eastern enlargement

Thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is still peddling the old myth of Western betrayal of Russia by expanding NATO eastward after the end of the Cold War. Both Vladimir Puti…

blogs.lse.ac.uk

 

[planetgeli]

To look reasonable for half an hour & then look the opposite? Idk.

For me, this war has been characterised by the Russians largely saying the opposite of the truth when speaking of external (of Russia) affairs. It's all very 1984 Orwellian.

I wouldn't trust them (well, Putin) to tell me the colour of the sky. Let alone adhere to a ceasefire.

 

[frogwoman]

He's the absolute master of doing it on his own population that's for sure.

Yeah that also possible. One of the things that people here (UK/EU/etc.) really struggle to get their heads round (not saying you) is the confusion and chaos that Russia uses as a weapon. Announcing something and then not doing it, funding far right groups while claiming to be anti-fascist, saying they'll negotiate with no intention of doing so, is not incompetence, but calculated behaviour.

 

[Aladdin]

Propaganda war, Russia just making noises to look reasonable.

Yep.
Putin pretending to be human.

They are well prepared then. I guess that’s what happens when you’ve lived through 45 years of Cold War with a bloody great bear next to you And more recently with Putin’s ‘greater Russia’ rhetoric.

I think I went into a section of this bunker system last year - a below street level shopping mall in Helsinki.

They have enough to feed the city for 2 weeks underground if necessry.
Last time I was in Helsinki was in 2006.
Everyone was wary of Russia. They grow up wary of Russia.