Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

apologies for the mail link but this is a more sober analysis, Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

Absolutely nobody has said they think Ukraine is 'winnning' just that there is no way that this ends up, from here, long-ish term, as a win for Russia, or for Putin himself.
But your man there says "Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest".
I don't see how that stands up? I mean if you calculate something totally wrongly you're not very good at calculating are you.

 

[bimble]

Interesting claim, seems to be saying that the FSB is leaking on purpose?

 

[kebabking]

resting claim, seems to be saying that the FSB is leaking on purpose?

View attachment 312609

I'd be tending to think less the FSB, and more someone in FSB.

Assuming it's true. Which given the familial links between Russia and Ukraine, it might we'll be.

 

[Pickman's model]

Like what are you both bothered about Russia and China getting their hands on weapons wise from what's being given to Ukraine? Unless I've misunderstood you?

On a scale of 1-10 I'm about a 3 about tech theft of that sort, but governments and companies may rate things differently

 

[Pickman's model]

Interesting claim, seems to be saying that the FSB is leaking on purpose?

View attachment 312609

I don't think anonymous are necessarily drawing the right conclusions, or perhaps asking the right questions.

 

[existentialist]

Do you really think I take notice of a nothing like you?

Ooooooh, you so much bettah than us. It must be purgatory having to hang around with such ciphers.

 

[Cid]

On a scale of 1-10 I'm about a 3 about tech theft of that sort, but governments and companies may rate things differently

God forbid that Russia gets hold of a downed Su-27, imagine what they could do with that kind of technology.

 

[weepiper]

We haven't been invaded for a thousand years? We've only even been a 'we' for three hundred-odd, for a start. England and Scotland invaded each other loads of times in the early modern period. England last invaded Scotland in the 17th century.

 

[kebabking]

...ciphers.

Ooh... Are you imagining RD2003 hunched over a radio in the loft taking instructions from the Centre...

 

[bimble]

is it time to try to adjust brain to the idea that for the foreseeable future we are all going to be living in a more or less 'hot' war situation as this drags on for years? Or is it more likely that events will continue to unfold quickly & unpredictably, resulting in some different outcome idk.

 

[existentialist]

Ooh... Are you imagining RD2003 hunched over a radio in the loft taking instructions from the Centre...

Er, not exactly, no

 

[existentialist]

is it time to try to adjust brain to the idea that for the foreseeable future we are all going to be living in a more or less 'hot' war situation as this drags on for years? Or is it more likely that events will continue to unfold quickly & unpredictably, resulting in some different outcome idk.

TBH, I think that - barring some miracle - Russia will achieve its goals, will complete its takeover of Ukraine, and the West will stand powerlessly back, wringing our hands and wishing it were otherwise. While an insurgency beds itself in Ukraine, and goes on for a good long while. I'm in a pessimistic mood this morning.

But I do think that the West's relationship with Russia has changed irrevocably, and the relationship between the two is going to be a lot more militarised from here on in.

 

[TopCat]

it was more the thread i was referring to. there are many more examples on it.

The general theme though is to avoid any criticism of the Ukrainians. Plus make offensive remarks about Putin's imagined state of mental health (and by implication all people with mental health issues).

 

[bimble]

TBH, I think that - barring some miracle - Russia will achieve its goals, will complete its takeover of Ukraine, and the West will stand powerlessly back, wringing our hands and wishing it were otherwise. While an insurgency beds itself in Ukraine, and goes on for a good long while.

And sanctions are lifted and Putin is shaken hands with etc? eta oh i see you added that bit at the end, yep.

 

[Pickman's model]

God forbid that Russia gets hold of a downed Su-27, imagine what they could do with that kind of technology.

Indeed. But I'm told that other weapons are being supplied they may be rather more interested in

 

[tim]

Do you really think I take notice of a nothing like you?

A380's so vain, he probably thinks this post is about him. He's so vain he probably thinks this post is about him, doesn't he?

He had you several years ago when you were quite naive.
And his scarf it was apricot

 

[bimble]

offensive remarks about Putin's imagined state of mental health (and by implication all people with mental health issues).

yes, thats me that is.

 

[andysays]

We haven't been invaded for a thousand years? We've only even been a 'we' for three hundred-odd, for a start. England and Scotland invaded each other loads of times in the early modern period. England last invaded Scotland in the 17th century.

That wasn't an invasion, it was a special military operation to demilitarise and denazify.

 

[kebabking]

And sanctions are lifted and Putin is shaken hands with etc?

I think that depends on the insurgency in Ukraine and the pictures of Russian clamping down that we see.

It probably also depends on to what extent, and how quickly, Europe finds other energy sources.

I do think however that there's a whiff of blood in the water, and that the US, and perhaps Europe, might decide to keep going because this time they think there's a good chance of getting rid of Putin, and for (particularly the Eastern states) putting Russia back in its box.


I'm not convinced that China is going to provide the resolute support that they might otherwise have done - too much of the loose cannon about Putin's actions...

 

[Pickman's model]

We haven't been invaded for a thousand years? We've only even been a 'we' for three hundred-odd, for a start. England and Scotland invaded each other loads of times in the early modern period. England last invaded Scotland in the 17th century.

And has the glorious revolution of 1688 and the landing of the future Henry vii been so easily forgotten, let alone the 1798 year of the French. Sadly, weepiper, ignorance rather than splodgeness abounds

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh and the capture of the channel Islands by hitler

 

[Smangus]

Oh and the capture of the channel Islands by hitler

Don't forget that other dodgy separatist insurgency as documented here...

 

[rubbershoes]

Ooh... Are you imagining RD2003 hunched over a radio in the loft taking instructions from the Centre...

Listening out for the Lincolnshire Poacher on shortwave.

It could explain the numbers in their name...

 

[two sheds]

Analysts identify top 10 ‘war myths’ of Russia-Ukraine conflict

NewsGuard warns disinformation channels extend beyond sites and accounts with direct Kremlin links

www.theguardian.com

All look to have been spread by Russia, so not seen any of them on here.

 

[emanymton]

It's interesting that RD2003 endlessly uses Russia's history of invasion to justify Russia's concern about NATO being on it's borders, but never considers the easterns states experience of Russian invasion/domination as being an understandable reason for them wanting to join NATO....

What I find interesting is that blaming it all on NATO casts Putin/Russia in a completely passive role with no agency. When in fact he is as active and willing participant in shipping the current world political situation as any NATO leader.

I'm not sure what the word is for this is heads a little in the direction of racism bit not quite. But it says that only the West matters it is only the west that has agency.

 

[LDC]

On a scale of 1-10 I'm about a 3 about tech theft of that sort, but governments and companies may rate things differently

AFAIK everything that's going is not new or important tech. Likely all they''ll end up with is a fuck load of used NLAW tubes and some small arms, the place is awash with weapons already anyway.

 

[LDC]

I'm not sure what the word is for this is heads a little in the direction of racism bit not quite. But it says that only the West matters it is only the west that has agency.

One of the recent anti-anti-imperialist type articles goes into that, in that it always situates 'the West' as the focus and most important player in whatever is going on.

 

[Rimbaud]

is it time to try to adjust brain to the idea that for the foreseeable future we are all going to be living in a more or less 'hot' war situation as this drags on for years? Or is it more likely that events will continue to unfold quickly & unpredictably, resulting in some different outcome idk.

I've been kind of thinking that February 2020 was our last taste of normality. A lot of people were saying when Trump got elected that we were living in the 1930s, I think that was a sort of correct intuition, informed by a general sense that the underpinnings of the old order were unravelling and that we're due one of history's periodic reshuffles, even if it isn't a direct parallel to the 1930s.

I think now we are indeed living in the 1940s. That doesn't mean we will necessarily have World War 3, but that a lot of stuff is going to happen over the next decade and it is going to end in some kind of reset of the global order. Even if Ukraine is peacefully resolved soon, Putin has kind of opened Pandora's box and there will be unforeseen consequences we haven't recognised yet.

 

[bimble]

I do think however that there's a whiff of blood in the water, and that the US, and perhaps Europe, might decide to keep going because this time they think there's a good chance of getting rid of Putin, and for (particularly the Eastern states) putting Russia back in its box.

getting rid of him how? If that would be part of the motivation for US-Europe not normalising relations it's because they think prolonging the war will lead to him being toppled internally?

 

[frogwoman]

My Bulgarian colleague seemed to think that the Americans were bombing Kyiv.