Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Very good analysis on Novara tonight, particularly talking about the two key issues on my mind:
-addressing the presentation of Russian failure and questioning the media narrative of the war
(im not totally convinced by the narrative of Ukraine 'winning' and Russian failure - much as I would like that to be true)
and
-the degree of the west further arming Ukrainian forces and what the consequences of that really are
(im cautious if not outright against the west putting endless arms in and standing back to watch the carnage and tutting how sad it is, meanwhile achieving their imperial objectives and also risking wider escalation)

first half hour

One of the consequences of the west arming Ukraine may well be China and Russia getting their hands on things they otherwise wouldnt

 

[tim]

.

Dad's army always won through tho

They never had to face the might of the Kharkiv ARP elite Green Grocer division.

 

[ska invita]

One of the consequences of the west arming Ukraine may well be China and Russia getting their hands on things they otherwise wouldnt

definitely....especially if the Russians grip is coming soon, which I expect it is.... and we are not being shown a realistic representation of the war and the way it is going which makes that even harder to judge, and the narrative to throw in arms all the more appealing to the general public

 

[two sheds]

If the russian oligarch assets are seized they could perhaps go to rebuilding ukraine after this shitshow is over, depending on the outcome.

 

[Bingoman]

Not good

 

[Wilf]

Speak for yourself and the analogy is stretched here. We could move discussion to a specific thread but I'm not going to be quiet about it when it's relevent.

But what's the relevance? Justification type relevance?

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

If the russian oligarch assets are seized they could perhaps go to rebuilding ukraine after this shitshow is over, depending on the outcome.

One yacht down:

MSN

www.msn.com

I'm surprised that when Putin moved his boat, that he didn't warn this guy that he should move his. Personally, I think putting pressure on the oligarchs is probably the way to go. I don't think anyone in power really cares about the average citizen in Russia or elsewhere, so many of the sanctions won't work.. Many Russians live in abject poverty, especially ones in rural areas, while people with power, such as this guy, swan around in $600 million dollar superyachts. Only hitting them where it hurts (their money and assets), will move them. I think if you put enough pressure on the oligarchs, they'll replace Putin themselves. (No one should expect Putin to resign and walk away. He's not the type. He'll have to be carried out.) I'm not certain if that will be better in the long-term tbh.

 

[Idris2002]

I see Kherson has fallen.

 

[LDC]

One of the consequences of the west arming Ukraine may well be China and Russia getting their hands on things they otherwise wouldnt

definitely....especially if the Russians grip is coming soon, which I expect it is.... and we are not being shown a realistic representation of the war and the way it is going which makes that even harder to judge, and the narrative to throw in arms all the more appealing to the general public

Like what are you both bothered about Russia and China getting their hands on weapons wise from what's being given to Ukraine? Unless I've misunderstood you?

 

[YouSir]

The Kyiv Independent put out a statement from Ukrainian special forces saying that they’d be executing captured Russians from now on. Tweet subsequently deleted but suggests that things are already decaying into a war crime free for all.

 

[Bingoman]

I see Kherson has fallen.

Looks like it which ones next i wonder?

 

[YouSir]

The Kyiv Independent put out a statement from Ukrainian special forces saying that they’d be executing captured Russians from now on. Tweet subsequently deleted but suggests that things are already decaying into a war crime free for all.

Reinstated...

 

[frogwoman]

4

The Kyiv Independent put out a statement from Ukrainian special forces saying that they’d be executing captured Russians from now on. Tweet subsequently deleted but suggests that things are already decaying into a war crime free for all.

I was afraid of something like that

 

[tim]

If the russian oligarch assets are seized they could perhaps go to rebuilding ukraine after this shitshow is over, depending on the outcome.

They could do that just by seizing the Ukrainian oligarch's assets

 

[existentialist]

Reinstated...

View attachment 312594

I think we can safely file this under "propaganda" - fuck it, it's exactly the kind of thing I'd be saying in the same position, even if I decided not to follow through on it.

 

[YouSir]

I think we can safely file this under "propaganda" - fuck it, it's exactly the kind of thing I'd be saying in the same position, even if I decided not to follow through on it.

It's a stupid thing to say, even if it does reach Russian troops it just tells them never to surrender and it's OK to execute any Ukrainians you capture. And even if it's intended solely as propaganda there are still troops on the ground who may take it completely seriously.

 

[NoXion]

I think we can safely file this under "propaganda" - fuck it, it's exactly the kind of thing I'd be saying in the same position, even if I decided not to follow through on it.

Seems a bit foot-shooty to me. Surely one would want to encourage the enemy to surrender? If they face death if captured then that would tend to make them fight rather than surrender, no?

 

[Artaxerxes]

The Kyiv Independent put out a statement from Ukrainian special forces saying that they’d be executing captured Russians from now on. Tweet subsequently deleted but suggests that things are already decaying into a war crime free for all.

All those videos of sobbing prisoners are already warcrimes.

Article 13 of the Geneva Convention

Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.

 

[Artaxerxes]

It's a stupid thing to say, even if it does reach Russian troops it just tells them never to surrender and it's OK to execute any Ukrainians you capture. And even if it's intended solely as propaganda there are still troops on the ground who may take it completely seriously.

Seems a bit foot-shooty to me. Surely one would want to encourage the enemy to surrender? If they face death if captured then that would tend to make them fight rather than surrender, no?

Special Forces, they only have one job and its not taking prisoners.

 

[Orang Utan]

.

 

[YouSir]

Special Forces, they only have one job and its not taking prisoners.

Makes you wonder why they're on Facebook confessing to planned war crimes and endangering the lives of their comrades really. Imagine they'd be busy elsewhere.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Makes you wonder why they're on Facebook confessing to planned war crimes and endangering the lives of their comrades really. Imagine they'd be busy elsewhere.

Some idiot in the back office probably, its bad enough keeping interns in check in Labour

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Some idiot in the back office probably, its bad enough keeping interns in check in Labour

Are you saying Keir Starmer's behind it?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Are you saying Keir Starmer's behind it?

Tonty Blair

 

[dilute micro]

Makes you wonder why they're on Facebook confessing to planned war crimes and endangering the lives of their comrades really. Imagine they'd be busy elsewhere.

I take it as a sign of frustration and maybe a little desperation.

 

[YouSir]

I take it as a sign of frustration and maybe a little desperation.

I take it as intent to commit war crimes.

 

[dilute micro]

I take it as intent to commit war crimes.

They could do that anyway without announcing it.

 

[YouSir]

They could do that anyway without announcing it.

They could and I imagine they will. Generally what war is.

 

[Yossarian]

They've been making blood-curdling threats since the start, though I don't know what was apparently mistranslated as "fry you right in the technique."

 

[tim]

Special Forces, they only have one job and its not taking prisoners.

Yes, it's writing books exaggerating their heroics and flogging them to the credulous.