Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Spymaster]

Lost SU27 returns home sans missiles, best of luck to him/her.

The Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 That Landed In Romania Flown Back To Ukraine

The Ukrainian Su-27 that landed at Bacau a few days ago with a full load of air-to-air missiles, has returned home (completely unarmed). On Feb. 24, 2022,

theaviationist.com

Ace paint job.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes

rumours crackling away on telegram / twitter on Sunday, denied yesterday. Put down as an "unverified" although the hurried rush to deny it seems a bit fishy to me.

example tweet:



official denial

https://ura. news/articles/1036278272 (link broken)

So it's at best unclear if he's been sacked. It'd be nice if people highlighted uncertainty with things like this as we all know from much experience that in war even in America and the UK shit gets put about that's bollocks. Rather than deciding that one story ought to be true and taking it as such

 

[two sheds]

Watched bbc news for the first time in oooo must be 25 years. I note that they concentrated on the part of the question from the Ukrainian about no fly zone which was much easier to answer than for example the question about russian oligarchs and their dirty money.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What ru saying about Steeles piece? That what he's saying is wrong?

So your saying that Putin is mad? That this is explanation of the background to this conflict?

I would say that it is wrong, yes. It's something I'd have read a week ago and thought sounded right, but events are quickly showing otherwise. This has gone beyond a limited mission to stop countries from joining NATO by supporting separatists.

What should replace that kind of analysis, I don't know, but we have to take seriously the idea that Putin thinks now is the time to start a grand mission to reunite the Russian empire. He appears to have miscalculated massively, and Steele's piece really was all about how he doesn't do that.

 

[discokermit]

That is the bit referred to as 'sustained siege' in my post.

wont take long i dont think. allow safe passage out for refugees then pretty soon you could claim to the folks back home that the only ones left are fighters as you bombard them with thermobaric bombs or poison them with fentanyl or whatever.
anyway, i dont want to get into any sort of tactics talk.

 

[brogdale]

Watched bbc news for the first time in oooo must be 25 years. I note that they concentrated on the part of the question from the Ukrainian about no fly zone which was much easier to answer than for example the question about russian oligarchs and their dirty money.

Yeah, true...but then again, it is the most important element of what he was asked and, thankfully he is giving the correct answer.

 

[two sheds]

yes fair play

 

[rekil]

Btw Jonathan Steele's last paragraph in that piece hasn't aged well has it?

Steele is conspiraloon assadist filth.

I first became aware of Steele’s politics back in 2012 when he cited a Doha poll expressing support for Assad, once again in an opinion piece for the Guardian. The poll revealed that 55% of Syrians wanted Assad to stay, motivated by fear of civil war. If you took a few minutes to analyze the polling methodology, you’d learn that only ninety-eight Syrians living inside the country took part in the survey. To participate in the poll, they had to be on the Internet. In other words, if you were a farmer or a baker from the countryside with nothing more advanced than a flip phone, your opinion did not count.

Douma, Chlorine Gas and Occam's Razor

On June 21, 2019 I wrote an article for CounterPunch titled “The Douma Gas Attack: What’s the Evidence It was a False Flag?” It was a critique of a

www.counterpunch.org

Fucking guardian.

 

[discokermit]

I would say that it is wrong, yes. It's something I'd have read a week ago and thought sounded right, but events are quickly showing otherwise. This has gone beyond a limited mission to stop countries from joining NATO by supporting separatists.

What should replace that kind of analysis, I don't know, but we have to take seriously the idea that Putin thinks now is the time to start a grand mission to reunite the Russian empire. He appears to have miscalculated massively, and Steele's piece really was all about how he doesn't do that.

If you dont know what his calculations were, you cant know if he has miscalculated.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

when did empires end?

They'll end us.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If you dont know what his calculations were, you cant know if he has miscalculated.

I can't work out a good endgame for him here, so while you're right that I can't know, I can be extremely puzzled. I certainly can't put together a coherent analysis showing how this is part of a rational wider plan.

 

[Orang Utan]

I can't work out a good endgame for him here, so while you're right that I can't know, I can be extremely puzzled. I certainly can't put together a coherent analysis showing how this is part of a rational wider plan.

I don’t think anyone expects or even wants you to

 

[not-bono-ever]

my coherent analysis is that Putin is a cunt. its not Russia, its Putin

 

[discokermit]

I can't work out a good endgame for him here, so while you're right that I can't know, I can be extremely puzzled. I certainly can't put together a coherent analysis showing how this is part of a rational wider plan.

your lack of coherent analysis is your failing. it would be unwise to project that on to others.
"endgame", as a chess player you should know, if you dont understand what your opponent is doing, it doesnt mean that they dont.

 

[Gramsci]

I would say that it is wrong, yes. It's something I'd have read a week ago and thought sounded right, but events are quickly showing otherwise. This has gone beyond a limited mission to stop countries from joining NATO by supporting separatists.

What should replace that kind of analysis, I don't know, but we have to take seriously the idea that Putin thinks now is the time to start a grand mission to reunite the Russian empire. He appears to have miscalculated massively, and Steele's piece really was all about how he doesn't do that.

I think article elbows posted and Steeles guardian article are to the point.

I didn't think Putin would actually do a full on invasion.

What I'm sensing is that now anyone who says anything about the background to this conflict is going to be labelled an "appeaser"of Russian imperialism. As said on radio four today this is now about "good and evil". With EU and NATO being the forces of good.

I'm finding I'm unwilling to get caught up in this Black and white version of events.

If I was in Ukraine I'd be supporting the Ukrainian government. Given the choice between Ukrainian government and the ongoing influence of Ukrainian Oligarchs I prefer that to Putin.

Ukraine has all the problems of post Soviet countries with Oligarchs having to much power and influence . From what I've been reading the Oligarchs aren't pro Putin. But just seeing Ukraine as bastion of "Western" democracy and values against Putin and his oligarchs is simplification imo.

 

[brogdale]

my coherent analysis is that Putin is a cunt. its not Russia, its Putin

But war is the desire of the Russian state...just not of all of the people that live in that state.

 

[discokermit]

They'll end us.

could be true.
didnt really answer my question though. was there an empire free year? in the last five thousand years?

 

[zahir]

A thread on how the propaganda war is playing out in Russia.

 

[Orang Utan]

could be true.
didnt really answer my question though. was there an empire free year? in the last five thousand years?

Probably goes back to the dawn of agriculture, sedentary societies and overexploited resources

 

[Humberto]

Probably goes back to the dawn of agriculture, sedentary societies and overexploited resources

War too.

 

[Humberto]

Otherwise > pagga.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I see many corporates is now dropping russia as a punter / partner as if it were a wet turd- Boeing and Ford are the latest. its a rush for the exit to remove russia from their brand. plenty more to come as this accelerates. shitty times for the russian people

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Meh pissy post deleted. Need to stay off this thread for a while.

 

[brogdale]

I see many corporates is now dropping russia as a punter / partner as if it were a wet turd- Boeing and Ford are the latest. its a rush for the exit to remove russia from their brand. plenty more to come as this accelerates. shitty times for the russian people

They need a bloody revolution

 

[tim]

Yeah what comes later is the hardest bit to figure out, a total puppet regime or occupation doesnt seem like it will work very well. There may be other possibilities, such as leaving certain government figures intact and so not going for full on puppets, but getting that government to agree to various Russian demands in terms of levels of western integration, some autonomy for eastern regions, not building a strong military, etc. Russia could easily miscalculate how well such things will work though, agreements made under extreme duress may not last long. Perhaps they've learnt some faulty lessons from Georgia, where the invasion of that country managed to subsequently massively erode the political support of the Georgian leader who had been a thorn in Russias side. I've not got many clues about any of this at the moment, beyond the obvious stuff about how well the Ukrainian leadership have done so far. People in Ukraine will obviously take Russia threats seriously in future in ways they did not previously, but what the longer term consequences of those fears are remains to be seem.

We can see from the relationship between Britain and Ireland what the long-term consequences could be. If the Russians impose a puppet regime that doesn't have a strong base of popular support, it won't survive. For a country with a population of 120 million to directly occupy a large neighbouring country with a population of 40 million would seem, even in the medium turn impractical, even more so if a large proportion of that population has access to fire-arms.

 

[xenon]

thats not how a siege works. they encircle and wait for those inside to run out of food and water. in the meanwhile bomb gas pipelines and tv towers and whatever else they fancy to make life harder inside.

Whilst demanding the Ukrainian government step down and the defence forces surrender. Presumably if as speculated Putin wants to put a puppet regime in, he already has those people ready to move in as well. Which will obviously necessitate leaving a significant military presence to defend and all that flows from that...

I still can't quite see what Putin thought was going to happen. Surely he didn't actually think the majority of Ukrainians would just sit back and grumble a bit. Is he poisoned by his own misinformation. One problem with removing anyone close who disagrees with you is this dangerous loss of perspective.

 

[tim]

Rimbaud
Basically yes. I recommend Catherine Belton's book Putin's People for the story of how Putin and his KGB entourage relentlessly seized control of private companies, took over the economy, siphoned billions, blurred the lines between organised crime and political power, shut down their opponents and then used their riches and power to extend influence in the West.

The one good thing to come out of this tragic war is that the West might finally get serious about cracking down on the oligarchs and all their ill gotten gains being laundered in the City of London. If enough of their assets are frozen they might decide that Putin is a liability and move against him.

They may move against Putin, but the Government and the City of London will continue laundering the money of those who steal and oppress in a more circumspect manne.

 

[smokedout]

NATO may not intervene directly (which would be a tragic mistake, too) but NATO countries and the EU have been a lot more resolute than most expected. After all ten days ago if you'd said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to enormous economic sanctions, the indefinite pausing / bankruptcy of Nordstream, supplies of military hardware and civilian aid from around the EU & neighbouring states, Putin careesers being publicly shamed (Gerhard Schröder's entire private staff resigned from under him today), SWIFT deconnection, that a fast track EU membership for Ukraine would not only be discussed but actually put in motion, you'd probably have been thought pretty mad, naive, or both. Yet, here we are.

Not really interested in a bunfight, but many of those things were under speculative discussion several months ago let alone ten days ago so it's likely they were factored in to Putin's plans and their implementation has done little to dissuade him. There's only one thing that would dissuade him, other than an internal coup or Ukraine victory, which is broader military resistance and he's convinced the world that if anyone tries that it's the end of everything. And maybe it is, it doesn't really matter from his perspective, if that's how he's seen he can do what he wants and you'd have to be a fool to test him. That's put him in a very strong strategic position.

 

[two sheds]

They may move against Putin, but the Government and the City of London will continue laundering the money of those who steal and oppress in a more circumspect manne.

think of peoples' pensions why don't you

 

[Ax^]

which is why someone will have to test him

cannie capitulate to an ego like that to often