Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[elbows]

On the subject of drones, could supplying a lot more of them be more acceptable then more MIGs? You don't loose a highly trained pilot each time one is shot down and they can operate out of much small spaces? I'm actually really surprised these little Turkish ones are proving as effective as they are and they seem to relatively cheap.

Turkish drones were credited with changing the direction of the civil war/power struggle in Libya (helping to repel Hafters forces when they were threatening the capital).

 

[chilango]

I should apologize that my only contributions here are flippant attempts at humour. I'm shitting myself tbh and sat watching powerlessly in horror at it all. Once again.

 

[Pickman's model]

I should apologize that my only contributions here are flippant attempts at humour. I'm shitting myself tbh and sat watching powerlessly in horror at it all. Once again.

And we've only just begun

 

[Artaxerxes]

A few things worth flagging from the following source:

• Chechen kill squad supposedly neutralised
• The reason being that FSB Kiev-sympathetic elements disclosed details of their mission to the Ukrainians(!)
• Does that mean that the Russian state is turning against Putin?

Even odds they just didn't like Chechens.

 

[Pickman's model]

Even odds they just didn't like Chechens.

Sending a death squad composed of men with bushy beards into a country where people are less hirsute is really fucking stupid

 

[elbows]

I should apologize that my only contributions here are flippant attempts at humour. I'm shitting myself tbh and sat watching powerlessly in horror at it all. Once again.

We need humour at times like these. I refuse to shit myself in fear but may well shit the bed in other ways.

If my bowels get too loose its not because I think I'm an expert in numerous fields or am happy to 'stray from my lane', its because I tend to fancy that I am reasonably well equipped to comment on propaganda, bias, and excessively narrow, premature narratives. And when it comes to trying to make sense of current events, there is a weary sense that the patterns are all too familiar.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Ffs all these threads should be in one forum

agreed

 

[ska invita]

Just to try and counter the of course correct gloom - possible reasons to be hopeful:

Russian offensive might be over sooner than we think
Putin might have fucked himself once and for all
People in Russia might be a step closer to being rid of him and his ilk
Europe might have to fastforward its green energy supplies
Dirty laundered oligarch money might be stamped on, likewise influence in government
House prices might come down lol

 

[David Clapson]

The RAF must be quietly getting ready to hit some Russian mobile AA in case the no fly zone happens. Let's say we hit one, to make the point. What would Putin do next? Cruise missiles to RAF bases? And then what? We do the same to air force bases in Russia? At what point would Putin stop? Would his own people stop him?

 

[Cid]

Anyone know why some Russian banks are excluded from the SWIFT sanctions? And also what the timeline on actually implementing them is?

 

[Doctor Carrot]

I'm bewildered by just about all of it, fwiw.

I admire the spirit being shown by millions of Ukrainians. I also fear for them because of that spirit. And I have fuck all idea what is going to happen.

This. I think most posts on here stem from a bewildermnet and trying to make some sort of sense of it.

I feel quite angry about it. I just see this as yet another thing where some stupid old cunt thinks it's still the 19th or 20th century and acts accordingly. You've got right wing old cunts wanting to hark back to days of empire, left wing old cunts who think capitalism is going to collapse any moment because they voted to leave a trading block and despotic old cunts bombing their neighbours flat because some bigger old liberal cunts won't let said despotic old cunt be as big a cunt as he wants to be. All this while the possibility of a livable environment in the future slowly slips away.

In summary old cunts need to fuck off out of it, the cunts.

 

[Orang Utan]

I get the impression you take a govian attitude to these experts

Nope, I trust the experts. I just don’t believe there are any contributing to this thread.

 

[Orang Utan]

Ffs all these threads should be in one forum

They should be in one thread

 

[belboid]

They should be in one thread

no they shouldnt because then many of us would skip past too much on a busy day. Stand alone threads in a single forum stand out, and any arguments about their content can be kept to that thread.

 

[Orang Utan]

no they shouldnt because then many of us would skip past too much on a busy day. Stand alone threads in a single forum stand out, and any arguments about their content can be kept to that thread.

And that forum shall be called NEW POSTS

 

[bimble]

That huge convoy, they’re speculating it’s about laying siege to the capital now.

Vast Russian military convoy may be harbinger of a siege of Kyiv

Analysis: convoy estimated to be 40 miles long raises fears of siege tactics and escalating civilian casualties

www.theguardian.com

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Nope, I trust the experts. I just don’t believe there are any contributing to this thread.

Thank fuck we have you here to set us straight.

 

[locomotive]

I've been using this thread as a bit of a rolling news feed. Probably a bad idea but I've definitely seen content I otherwise wouldn't have. So thanks to lots of you for sharing.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Anyone know why some Russian banks are excluded from the SWIFT sanctions? And also what the timeline on actually implementing them .

Because they deal with fuel sales to Europe.

 

[Cid]

Because they deal with fuel sales to Europe.

Yeah I figured as much, just wondering on the details.

 

[Spymaster]

That huge convoy, they’re speculating it’s about laying siege to the capital now.

Vast Russian military convoy may be harbinger of a siege of Kyiv

Analysis: convoy estimated to be 40 miles long raises fears of siege tactics and escalating civilian casualties

www.theguardian.com

Isn't that what we've all been assuming for the last couple of days?

I think 'xx mile long convoy heading for Kiev' was a hefty pointer.

 

[bimble]

Isn't that what we've all been assuming for the last couple of days?

I think 'xx mile long convoy heading for Kiev' was a hefty pointer.

I didn’t think so.
Siege means nobody can leave no food or anything else can enter doesn’t it.

Different to just going in.

From that article .

 

[a_chap]

Sending a death squad composed of men with bushy beards into a country where people are less hirsute is really fucking stupid

Walking Lily along the canal towpath this afternoon, someone said I "looked like a Russian". I have a bushy beard.

I replied that I was a Cossack.

I'm sure it was meant as a joke but it was pretty surreal

 

[frogwoman]

they shouldn't be all on one thread because this thread is fast moving enough as it is, i haven't read 159 pages of it

 

[Flavour]

elbows you are a hugely valuable poster and I think your work in assessing and analysing the covid pandemic was some of the most useful information on the Internet regarding the subject, that is to say, much respect...but...

It wouldn't hurt you to maybe split up some of your longer posts into paragraphs. I know I sound like a year 9 English teacher but for me at least these long walls of text are hard to read. Tiny bit of concision/brevity would be really appreciated.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

This. I think most posts on here stem from a bewildermnet and trying to make some sort of sense of it.

I feel quite angry about it. I just see this as yet another thing where some stupid old cunt thinks it's still the 19th or 20th century and acts accordingly. You've got right wing old cunts wanting to hark back to days of empire, left wing old cunts who think capitalism is going to collapse any moment because they voted to leave a trading block and despotic old cunts bombing their neighbours flat because some bigger old liberal cunts won't let said despotic old cunt be as big a cunt as he wants to be. All this while the possibility of a livable environment in the future slowly slips away.

In summary old cunts need to fuck off out of it, the cunts.

TBH, I don't think we were ever going to do anything real about the environment. As a species, we're really bad at recognizing problems on the longer term and dealing with them. We're even worse when those in power are able to cash-in on the short-term. We always wait until its smacking us in the face or worse. With the climate, we'll be long-past climate tipping points (and recent data suggests we already are) before we change course. As climate change progresses, we're likely to see more war, not less.

 

[Artaxerxes]

World's largest shipping firms stop shipping anything but essentials to Russia.




This is absolutely going to fuck over so much of the economy and day to day life.

 

[smokedout]

I have never posted here under any other username, and although I was no part of this forum in its early years, much time has since passed and so I have still ended up being an active poster here for a very long time.

What I've been saying on this subject was just based on what everyone else was saying and linking to when this subject was first discussed, and I made that clear. Some of which you didnt see when it was first mentioned, causing some initial confusion between us. I assumed that the supplying of military equipment did not cross a classic MAD red line in the way a no-fly zone would, because it has not in the past in various other conflicts, and because of the number of countries that openly stated their intention to supply things to Ukraine that will very much be used to fight Russia this time around. This included the initial EU statement about the supply of planes. However I had until minutes ago missed the more recent article which makes clear that Russia has since let everyone know what stance it is going to take in regards that stuff, that they have indicated a new red line on this. And it seems the EU and individual countries have now back-peddled to various extents in response. It is currently unclear to me how far that back-peddling will go, and where exactly all the red lines will settle in practice in this conflict. I've got a pretty clear sense about the classic red lines, and thus some of the support that Ukraine was never going to get from the west. But it appears I made too many assumptions about other ones that are not so clear and rigid and well-defined, and it appears that EU etc rhetoric has blundered in some of these areas already. I suppose I should have known better because this sort of situation often involves countries testing their luck and seeing how far they can push things before they face a response that leaves them in little doubt that they need to back off.

It's interesting that it seems to be Putin who is getting to draw all the red lines. I wonder if the initial reticence in the invasion was in part to not over commit until he was sure what NATO would do. I can think of more than one former president who might have been minded to call his bluff and go face to face with him, and Biden is an unknown quantity from Putin's perspective*. Now it's clear that NATO is unlikely to lift a finger to help Ukraine miltarily he's got free reign to do what he wants. And not only that but half the West seems convinced that the second a NATO soldier sets foot in Ukraine then Putin is prepared to launch WW3. My guess is that's not the case, and Moscow in ruins - even if everywhere else is too - is pretty far from any of his desired outcomes, but the fact that people think that gives him a huge strategic advantage not just in this conflict but in those to come. In this sense the madman rhetoric may well have actually helped him.

*I'm glad NATO didn't call his bluff obviously. I don't think gambling hundreds of millions of lives, including mine, in a game of brinkmanship with Putin is worth it despite the heart breaking events taking place in Ukraine. Anyway that's my uninformed speculation of the day.

 

[ska invita]

In this sense the madman rhetoric may well have actually helped him.

Which is why I think it was quite carefully cultivated - youve got to look like you mean it

 

[discokermit]

This. I think most posts on here stem from a bewildermnet and trying to make some sort of sense of it.

I feel quite angry about it. I just see this as yet another thing where some stupid old cunt thinks it's still the 19th or 20th century and acts accordingly. You've got right wing old cunts wanting to hark back to days of empire, left wing old cunts who think capitalism is going to collapse any moment because they voted to leave a trading block and despotic old cunts bombing their neighbours flat because some bigger old liberal cunts won't let said despotic old cunt be as big a cunt as he wants to be. All this while the possibility of a livable environment in the future slowly slips away.

In summary old cunts need to fuck off out of it, the cunts.

when did empires end?