Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[teqniq]

The state of it. When the UK announced asset freezes what actually happened is that they are giving them 30 days (!) to move their money out leisurely.

'the Treasury unit in charge of enforcing the UK’s sanctions quietly issued a 30-day licence granting permission for any individual or entity to “wind down any transactions” with VTB until 27 March.."

"This is a ridiculous position for Britain to put itself in. An asset freeze needs to be immediate and total. If you are leaving those subject to it a month for the sanction to become active then anything you want to freeze will be long gone. It is absurd.”

Russian bank customers have 30 days to wind down assets under 'absurd' UK sanctions loophole

Russia's second largest bank, VTB, has been granted a 30-day exemption for clients to close transactions and move assets

inews.co.uk

I'm afraid I'm not in the least bit surprised.

 

[bimble]

i understand better about the no fly zone after reading this.

A "no-fly zone" in Ukraine is a catastrophically bad idea

The West can’t treat Putin like he’s Saddam Hussein.

www.vox.com

 

[Diamond]

That military convoy that now looks stuck near to Kiev. I wonder if this has anything to do with it:

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm afraid I'm not in the least bit surprised.

I'm not either, but it still needs calling out as absurd, cos it is.

 

[spitfire]

In todays new thing I never thought I'd see, a convoy measuring website.

kyiv_convoy

coscher510.users.earthengine.app

 

[teqniq]

I'm not either, but it still needs calling out as absurd, cos it is.

It's not absurd it's the vermin feeling obligated to their oligarch donors and therefore telling the civil servants to go easy on the brakes. It's criminal.

 

[Spymaster]

On that level its not complicated and others already made the point. The material differences between the two make all the difference in the world.

A no fly zone in practice means a we fly zone, and a 'we prevent the enemy flying' zone. Which in practice means a NATO-enabled no fly zone means direct engagement between the military of some NATO powers and Russia, which means war, the big war, the war neither side will want to trigger.

Supplying planes is not the same. Russia wont like it, but there are many things it doesnt like that still dont trigger that war, there is no automatic trigger because it does not involve direct engagement in the way a no-fly zone does.

Just look at what sort of weapons countries have openly agreed to supply already, including weapons that can be used to bring down Russian aircraft. Why are those not in the same category as supplying planes as far as you are concerned?

Christ. Stop telling me what a no-fly zone is. I know. Very well. You’re still arguing something I’m not.

Im disagreeing with you that Russia wouldn’t see the supply of aircraft as just as provocative as a NFZ, and they’re both are a very bad idea.

Now, have you found anything to support your assertion that the EU are still supplying planes to Ukraine, that isn’t from Twitter?

Did you used to post on here as Bungle?

 

[spitfire]

In todays new thing I never thought I'd see, a convoy measuring website.

kyiv_convoy

coscher510.users.earthengine.app

No, I can't figure out how it works either.

 

[Diamond]

A few things worth flagging from the following source:

• Chechen kill squad supposedly neutralised
• The reason being that FSB Kiev-sympathetic elements disclosed details of their mission to the Ukrainians(!)
• Does that mean that the Russian state is turning against Putin?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is that a reliable source, diamond? Who is Mykhailo Golub?

 

[gosub]

That military convoy that now looks stuck near to Kiev. I wonder if this has anything to do with it:

Nah stopped at the Zdvyzh river. might be having a picnic, doing a spot of fishing , playing pontoon but

 

[IC3D]

A few things worth flagging from the following source:

• Chechen kill squad supposedly neutralised
• The reason being that FSB Kiev-sympathetic elements disclosed details of their mission to the Ukrainians(!)
• Does that mean that the Russian state is turning against Putin?

Sadly the entire Muslim world saw them getting ready for the job by dipping bullets in pig fat on Al Jazz.

 

[Diamond]

Is that a reliable source, diamond? Who is Mykhailo Golub?

It's a Ukrainian govt announcement, widely reported.

 

[gosub]

Nordstream 2 filed for bancrupcy, whod have thunk it

 

[Gramsci]

The madness angle goes nowhere useful, it remains more useful to look at the strategic stuff via testimony like the following instead:

Its from the start of February and it includes stuff about Georgia, Armenia and Belarus, as well as the Kremlins perception of the USA and Europe. Its got plenty of stuff in it that demonstrate why Putins Russia sensed a window of opportunity was there to be exploited, and also some of the ways they may have miscalculated.

Russia's assault on Ukraine and the international order: Assessing and bolstering the Western response | Brookings

Fiona Hill testifies before the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe on Russia's assault on Ukraine and the international order.

www.brookings.edu

Thanks for the article. Shows, whatever one thinks of Putin, there is a logic behind what he's doing.

Article is written from US foreign policy export angle. Still it implies NATO expansion east is something that Putin has grounds to criticize.

Putin regards NATO now as not a purely defensive organisation. It's outlived the Cold war. That now its American led organisation. It's not a benign institution.

Russian requests for promise of no further expansion of NATO have been rebuffed

Also over years Putin has tried to encourage western business to Russia. To undermine any attempt at sanctions. As this would hurt business.

Johnathan steele says similar.

Understanding Putin’s narrative about Ukraine is the master key to this crisis | Jonathan Steele

His bulwark against Nato is to create a ‘frozen conflict’, like those in Georgia and Moldova, says former Moscow correspondent for the Guardian Jonathan Steele

www.theguardian.com

So no Putin is not mad.

Had disagreement today with friend who now thinks Putin wants world domination. Destroy democracies. Afraid some people are getting carried away. Trying to say there reasons behind this conflict is tantamount to "appeasement".

 

[Dystopiary]

I feel so sorry for the people asking desperately for a no fly zone. But it seems it would be catastrophic to implement.
There are no winners here, except maybe a few unimaginably rich people.

 

[Pickman's model]

A few things worth flagging from the following source:

• Chechen kill squad supposedly neutralised
• The reason being that FSB Kiev-sympathetic elements disclosed details of their mission to the Ukrainians(!)
• Does that mean that the Russian state is turning against Putin?

You're a couple of days behind the times with the Chechen thing

 

[bluescreen]

non breaking news, good writing.

The Battle of Kyiv

Russia's forward advance in Ukraine is a journey backward in time

theswordandthesandwich.substack.com

BTW, I started a thread in the books, films TV and writing forum for writing about Ukraine and there's a link there to three poems by Iya Kiva (she's quoted in bimble's link):

Writing about Ukraine

A thread for responses to the invasion of Ukraine by writers intimately involved. A War Diary by Yevgenia Belorusets Ominously, her last entry at the time of writing is Sunday 27 February (day 4 of the war) https://isolarii.com/kyiv A thoughtful and moving piece by Russian writer and...

www.urban75.net

 

[elbows]

Christ. Stop telling me what a no-fly zone is. I know. Very well. You’re still arguing something I’m not.

Im disagreeing with you that Russia wouldn’t see the supply of aircraft as just as provocative as a NFZ, and they’re both are a very bad idea.

Now, have you found anything to support your assertion that the EU are still supplying planes to Ukraine, that isn’t from Twitter?

Did you used to post on here as Bungle?

I have never posted here under any other username, and although I was no part of this forum in its early years, much time has since passed and so I have still ended up being an active poster here for a very long time.

What I've been saying on this subject was just based on what everyone else was saying and linking to when this subject was first discussed, and I made that clear. Some of which you didnt see when it was first mentioned, causing some initial confusion between us. I assumed that the supplying of military equipment did not cross a classic MAD red line in the way a no-fly zone would, because it has not in the past in various other conflicts, and because of the number of countries that openly stated their intention to supply things to Ukraine that will very much be used to fight Russia this time around. This included the initial EU statement about the supply of planes. However I had until minutes ago missed the more recent article which makes clear that Russia has since let everyone know what stance it is going to take in regards that stuff, that they have indicated a new red line on this. And it seems the EU and individual countries have now back-peddled to various extents in response. It is currently unclear to me how far that back-peddling will go, and where exactly all the red lines will settle in practice in this conflict. I've got a pretty clear sense about the classic red lines, and thus some of the support that Ukraine was never going to get from the west. But it appears I made too many assumptions about other ones that are not so clear and rigid and well-defined, and it appears that EU etc rhetoric has blundered in some of these areas already. I suppose I should have known better because this sort of situation often involves countries testing their luck and seeing how far they can push things before they face a response that leaves them in little doubt that they need to back off.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

On the subject of drones, could supplying a lot more of them be more acceptable then more MIGs? You don't loose a highly trained pilot each time one is shot down and they can operate out of much small spaces? I'm actually really surprised these little Turkish ones are proving as effective as they are and they seem to relatively cheap.

 

[Orang Utan]

Everyone’s an expert again suddenly

 

[Pickman's model]

BTW, I started a thread in the books, films TV and writing forum for writing about Ukraine and there's a link there to three poems by Iya Kiva (she's quoted in bimble's link):

Writing about Ukraine

A thread for responses to the invasion of Ukraine by writers intimately involved. A War Diary by Yevgenia Belorusets Ominously, her last entry at the time of writing is Sunday 27 February (day 4 of the war) https://isolarii.com/kyiv A thoughtful and moving piece by Russian writer and...

www.urban75.net

Ffs all these threads should be in one forum

 

[Pickman's model]

Everyone’s an expert again suddenly

I get the impression you take a govian attitude to these experts

 

[bimble]

A bomb was dropped today on Babi Yar, reports saying. Casualties.
If you don't know what that place is look it up.
somehow that news is too bleak for me to process.

 

[Cid]

A bomb was dropped today on Babi Yar, reports saying. Casualties.
If you don't know what that place is look it up.
somehow that news is too bleak for me to process.

I believe it was linked to the attack on the TV tower, which is nearby. At least that's what I saw mentioned earlier... Obviously am in no position to comment on motivations etc beyond that.

 

[bimble]

i'm not suggesting it was the target.

 

[chilango]

Everyone’s an expert again suddenly

Once you've taught yourself European Constitutional Law - from scratch - you pick up skills and knowledge that are easily transferable to fields such as, say, epidemiology or military hardware (after all that's not exactly rocket science now is it?)

 

[Cid]

i'm not suggesting it was the target.

Sorry, I just got that impression from your post. I have precisely zero disagreement on the bleakness and meaning of that site being affected.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Everyone’s an expert again suddenly

I'm bewildered by just about all of it, fwiw.

I admire the spirit being shown by millions of Ukrainians. I also fear for them because of that spirit. And I have fuck all idea what is going to happen.

 

[Cid]

Yep, save for a few opinions on quite specific areas, we are all well into Dunning-Kruger territory on this.