Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Indeliblelink]

Reports on twitter that a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile hit Taganrog Airbase. That's in Russia.

 

[tim]

Getting a bit armchair generally, but moving the capital to Lviv, abandoning Kharkiv, maybe Kyiv. Reinforcing what they have on the Dnieper. Lengthen Russian supply lines... Russia's own 'land war in Asia' tactics.

Whether any of that would be 'good', fuck knows.

Seeing as that is probably the Russian objective, it might work. The misty-eyed Russian irredentists don't seem to really want "Silesia" that much.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Sort of. On the first point not much calculation is required, there are pretty well defined red lines when it comes to Russia vs NATO countries, which have been drawn very clearly over many decades as a result of mutually assured destruction via nuclear weapons. Indeed part of the rationale for invading Ukraine in the first place is to take the opportunity to get it back within the Russian sphere of influence before the opportunity to do so is permanently lost via it moving into the realm beyond one of those red lines (eg by joining NATO or being more closely integrated into the EU etc).

In terms of miscalculations about the ease with which they could win in Ukraine, the most optimistic possible scenarios have failed to materialise for Russia, but they probably werent banking on those and its still incredibly early, so I am waiting till at least a few weeks have passed before forming any conclusions about that. Russia has been sloppy with its initial attempts but these failings dont necessarily represent a massive setback or something unexpected. And they've certainly been used for propaganda and morale-boosting purposes on the Ukrainian side and in the west, to the extent that those aspects have tended to dominate the news narrative in ways which could mislead people as to the extent that Russia are 'losing'.

Yeah, fair enough, that makes sense. I was expecting some sort of Russian intervention in the seperatist territories at some point - what I didn't expect was for Putin to immediately go beyond those to Kyiv. I would hazard a guess (though could be wrong) that it will not be easy to maintain either an occupation or a pro-Russian government there.

 

[existentialist]

 

[elbows]

Kermlin warned everyone to leave thier homes n kyvi 40 minutes ago
don't think this is going to end well :/

I dont think they said everyone. For example this is what the BBC said they said:

"We urge Ukrainian citizens who are being used by nationalists to carry out provocations against Russia, as well as Kyiv residents residing near relay stations to leave their home," the statement added.

 

[elbows]

Yeah, fair enough, that makes sense. I was expecting some sort of Russian intervention in the seperatist territories at some point - what I didn't expect was for Putin to immediately go beyond those to Kyiv. I would hazard a guess (though could be wrong) that it will not be easy to maintain either an occupation or a pro-Russian government there.

The only reason I expected him to go beyond those regions was that the USA etc decided to take the approach weeks ago of telling the world publicly what Russia planned, and the detail of it seemed quite credible to me and included Kyiv. Plus the 'military training exercises' in Belarus offered further clues about intent. And that stuff was the first I really heard of the escalation, so I didnt get a chance to make my own guesses really.

 

[mauvais]

Would be funny if this actually revealed something we're not supposed to know yet:



Esp. the move into Moldova

That's the insignia of the US 1st Cavalry Division in the top right which is pretty nuts in itself.

 

[kebabking]

Yeah, fair enough, that makes sense. I was expecting some sort of Russian intervention in the seperatist territories at some point - what I didn't expect was for Putin to immediately go beyond those to Kyiv. I would hazard a guess (though could be wrong) that it will not be easy to maintain either an occupation or a pro-Russian government there.

Me too.

I was expecting a multi-stage job: annexed territories first, then additional advance to make them bigger/more defendable, then a land corridor to Crimea, then a grab for what's left east of the Dneiper.

Always going for the least confrontation, a bit of deniability, and cancellable at each point if resistance from the outside world got too stiff.

 

[Ax^]

Reports on twitter that a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile hit Taganrog Airbase. That's in Russia.

edit seen it was 3 hours ago

Ballistic does not have to me an hot one can be frag or HE missiles and seeming as they are firing them at ukraine citys only seems fair

 

[elbows]

Yeah, fair enough, that makes sense. I was expecting some sort of Russian intervention in the seperatist territories at some point - what I didn't expect was for Putin to immediately go beyond those to Kyiv. I would hazard a guess (though could be wrong) that it will not be easy to maintain either an occupation or a pro-Russian government there.

Yeah what comes later is the hardest bit to figure out, a total puppet regime or occupation doesnt seem like it will work very well. There may be other possibilities, such as leaving certain government figures intact and so not going for full on puppets, but getting that government to agree to various Russian demands in terms of levels of western integration, some autonomy for eastern regions, not building a strong military, etc. Russia could easily miscalculate how well such things will work though, agreements made under extreme duress may not last long. Perhaps they've learnt some faulty lessons from Georgia, where the invasion of that country managed to subsequently massively erode the political support of the Georgian leader who had been a thorn in Russias side. I've not got many clues about any of this at the moment, beyond the obvious stuff about how well the Ukrainian leadership have done so far. People in Ukraine will obviously take Russia threats seriously in future in ways they did not previously, but what the longer term consequences of those fears are remains to be seem.

 

[bimble]

Always going for the least confrontation, a bit of deniability, and cancellable at each point if resistance from the outside world got too stiff.

why do think they did not do that instead?

 

[MickiQ]

edit seen it was 3 hours ago

Ballistic does not have to me an hot one can be frag or HE missiles and seeming as they are firing them at ukraine citys only seems fair

Surprised no Ukrainian AF pilot has tried a kamikaze run at the Kremlin yet tbh.

 

[not-bono-ever]

possibly loss of face both at home and overseas

 

[Ax^]

striking against a symbol of Russia would not help with hearts and minds


also Putins in the urals

 

[Bingoman]

American intelligence suggests that some Russian units may have surrendered without a fight

 

[8ball]

Fully refundable. Looking forward to it though.

Factor 5 billion sun cream may be advisable.

 

[T & P]

So far Russia’s military strategy seems to have been as savvy as the ‘Rush B’ meme tactics employed by Russian players of the Counterstrike video game.

Sadly the Russian army has har more destructive weapons than those available to those playing the game

 

[Spymaster]

The point you are making is directly related to the point I was making - there is a vast diffence in terms of the Russian perspective on that stuff. One instantly crosses a major, well understood red line. The other does not, even though it might seem weird to us that supplying arms etc is not seen in that category, thats just how the rules and red lines about such things in war have developed over many decades. Plus I thought the stuff earlier about a change of mind in regards supplying planes was a misunderstanding anyway, and those planes were still supplied. But I havent had time to look into that myself today.

Well again you seem to be arguing against a point that I'm not making. I disagree with you that the Russians will consider the provocation vastly different, even though the difference is very clear to everyone else. Not sure what you mean by the planes still being supplied. To my knowledge no aircraft have been supplied to Ukraine by the EU, and none will be.

 

[andysays]

American intelligence suggests that some Russian units may have surrendered without a fight

Can you please post up links to this sort of thing, or at least tell us where you're getting this info.

Or alternately post it here

Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation​

 

[bimble]

The state of it. When the UK announced asset freezes what actually happened is that they are giving them 30 days (!) to move their money out leisurely.

'the Treasury unit in charge of enforcing the UK’s sanctions quietly issued a 30-day licence granting permission for any individual or entity to “wind down any transactions” with VTB until 27 March.."

"This is a ridiculous position for Britain to put itself in. An asset freeze needs to be immediate and total. If you are leaving those subject to it a month for the sanction to become active then anything you want to freeze will be long gone. It is absurd.”

Russian bank customers have 30 days to wind down assets under 'absurd' UK sanctions loophole

Russia's second largest bank, VTB, has been granted a 30-day exemption for clients to close transactions and move assets

inews.co.uk

 

[not-bono-ever]

Would be funny if this actually revealed something we're not supposed to know yet:



Esp. the move into Moldova

Looks like transnistria invading Ukraine rather than Russians into Moldova ? More likely as Russian forces have been in the statelet for years

 

[belboid]

striking against a symbol of Russia would not help with hearts and minds


also Putins in the urals

Not to mention the Kremlin is about 1000k from anywhere said pilot could fly from.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well again you seem to be arguing against a point that I'm not making. I disagree with you that the Russians will consider the provocation vastly different, even though the difference is very clear to everyone else. Not sure what you mean by the planes still being supplied. To my knowledge no aircraft have been supplied to Ukraine by the EU, and none will be.

This report, from just 6 hours ago, is still claiming it's going ahead.

The European Union has decided to provide Ukraine with 70 Russian-made fighter planes to help the country’s defence against invading Russian troops.

In a statement on Facebook, the Air Force Command of Ukraine’s armed forces said the country will get 16 MiG-29 and 14 Su-25 planes from Bulgaria, 28 Mig-29 planes from Poland and another 12 MiG-29 jets from Slovakia.

A Ukrainian government official told Politico magazine that Ukrainian pilots had reached Poland to begin the process of taking control of the planes.

Ukraine set to receive 70 fighter jets from EU nations, officials say

EU member states Bulgaria, Slovakia and Poland are providing MiG-29 and Su-25 planes to Ukraine

www.independent.co.uk

 

[existentialist]

Not to mention the Kremlin is about 1000k from anywhere said pilot could fly from.

And is rumoured to be quite well protected against air attack...

 

[elbows]

Well again you seem to be arguing against a point that I'm not making. I disagree with you that the Russians will consider the provocation vastly different, even though the difference is very clear to everyone else. Not sure what you mean by the planes still being supplied. To my knowledge no aircraft have been supplied to Ukraine by the EU, and none will be.

I read what everyone wrote and linked to on this subject on page 153 of this thread.

Does your point rely on there being a difference in anticipated Russian perceptions and your knowledge about aircraft supply if we are talking about individual countries that are in the EU rather than the EU itself? As per one of the articles linked to earlier:

Borrell walked that back slightly on Monday, acknowledging that any transfers wouldn’t come from the EU itself, but would instead be donated “bilaterally” by individual EU countries.

(from Ukrainian pilots arrive in Poland to pick up donated fighter jets )

Does that make any difference to Russian perceptions in your book? As for why the reality doesnt match the rhetoric in regards 'EU supply', thats just a combination of the EU being keen to be seen to provide as much support as it can to Ukraine, Ukraine being very keen to say all sorts of things that pressure the EU and individual countries to help more, and entirely typical language ambiguities when it comes to talking about the EU as its own thing and individual nations that are part of the EU.

 

[platinumsage]

This report, from just 6 hours ago, is still claiming it's going ahead.

Ukraine set to receive 70 fighter jets from EU nations, officials say

EU member states Bulgaria, Slovakia and Poland are providing MiG-29 and Su-25 planes to Ukraine

www.independent.co.uk

Yes it is still going ahead. Reports that it weren't appear to have been due to a mis-translation (mixing up "no fly zone" with "no aircraft").

 

[gosub]

This report, from just 6 hours ago, is still claiming it's going ahead.

Ukraine set to receive 70 fighter jets from EU nations, officials say

EU member states Bulgaria, Slovakia and Poland are providing MiG-29 and Su-25 planes to Ukraine

www.independent.co.uk

will be sorting out the paint jobs

 

[SpookyFrank]

Would be funny if this actually revealed something we're not supposed to know yet:



Esp. the move into Moldova

From Moldova possibly, either using Transnistria as a beachhead or bringing pro-Russian Transnistrians into the fight. Was always a possibility.

 

[Rimbaud]

More info on the 40 mile convoy heading for Kiev:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

Some clarity on that massive Russian armoured column heading south towards Kyiv.

Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:

• The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.
• The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.
• The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle.

Separately, the imagery examined by McKenzie Intelligence Services shows a Russian parachute battalion dug in to the area of Hostomel airfield - Ukraine's most important international cargo airport and a key military airbase near Kyiv.

But their artillery is assessed to be outside the range of most of the capital.

The analysts say they have noted very little Russian progress over the past 24 hours.

Seems maybe not as bad as it first appeared?

Also - don't want to sound like an armchair general, but is a long convoy in single file wise when you are yet to gain air superiority? Seems like it will be a sitting duck for those planes sent by Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria?

 

[vanya]

Just something to put Putin's Ukraine folly into perspective.

In 2013, Russia had an economy of 2.3 trillion. Sanctions over Crimea saw it decline to a 1.3 trillion economy by 2016. At present, it is a 1.65 trillion economy, substantially smaller than pre-Crimea.

So, as a result thus far of Putin’s obsession with historic greatness, Russia's economy is smaller than that of Canada and South Korea and is competing against Brazil to be 11th largest economy. If not for Crimea, it would likely be competing with France for 7th largest economy, if it had good growth in those years it is also conceivable it would be the 5th largest economy.

And after this? Hard to say how hard sanctions will hit, but I'd say at the bare minimum, within a year or two Russia will be competing with Mexico to be the 15th largest economy. If the economy shrinks from a 1.6 trillion to a 1 trillion economy - quite possible as these are far more severe sanctions than those on 2014 which reduced it from a 2.3 trillion economy to a 1.3 trillion economy - then the Russian economy may end up smaller than that of Iran, Indonesia and the Netherlands, barely in the top 20.

It would seem that Putin's obsession with Ukraine is Russia's greatest obstacle to greatness. He is leading Russia to ruin.

Yes Putin is holding back the prosperity of the Russian people and in two decades has done nothing to diversify the economy away from fossil fuels. If he had done what Norway have done with their good fortune maybe Russia would be even higher than 7th. And a lot of Russian people know this but are too cowed by a brutal system of repression holding them down because everything is geared up to keep Putin in power rather than to work for the interests of the country as a whole.