Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[TopCat]

Zelensky planned to put his peace plan to Biden, Congress and Trump this week. It doesn’t seem to have happened as no leaks.

Meanwhile other peace plans immediately dismissed by the man.

• China and Brazil on Friday pressed ahead with an effort to gather developing countries behind a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s dismissal of the initiative as serving Moscow’s interests. Seventeen countries attended a meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly chaired by China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, and Brazilian foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim. Wang told reporters they discussed the need to prevent escalation in the war, avoid the use of weapons of mass destruction and prevent attacks on nuclear power plants. Zelenskyy, in a speech to the assembly earlier this week, questioned why China and Brazil were proposing an alternative to his own peace formula. Proposing “alternatives, half-hearted settlement plans, so-called sets of principles” would only give Moscow the political space to continue the war, he said.

 

[TopCat]

I stand corrected. Zelensky has presented the plan to Trump. I assume then Biden as well. Surprised no details have emerged yet.

• Zelenskyy later described the meeting as “very productive”. He wrote on X: “I presented our Victory Plan, and we thoroughly reviewed the situation in Ukraine and the consequences of the war for our people. Many details were discussed. We share the common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must prevail.”

 

[Yossarian]

I don't know, why would anybody take issue with a plan led by those fascist motherfuckers in Beijing who have declared a "no limits" partnership with Russia?

 

[The39thStep]

Zelensky planned to put his peace plan to Biden, Congress and Trump this week. It doesn’t seem to have happened as no leaks.

Meanwhile other peace plans immediately dismissed by the man.

• China and Brazil on Friday pressed ahead with an effort to gather developing countries behind a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s dismissal of the initiative as serving Moscow’s interests. Seventeen countries attended a meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly chaired by China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, and Brazilian foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim. Wang told reporters they discussed the need to prevent escalation in the war, avoid the use of weapons of mass destruction and prevent attacks on nuclear power plants. Zelenskyy, in a speech to the assembly earlier this week, questioned why China and Brazil were proposing an alternative to his own peace formula. Proposing “alternatives, half-hearted settlement plans, so-called sets of principles” would only give Moscow the political space to continue the war, he said.

Aljazeera on 23rd September quoted Zensky as saying the “entire plan” will be ready by “early November” . Elements of the plan have already been circulated to key US officials presumably for briefing Biden before the 'presentation' and some have been mentioned publicly.

Aljazera's summary is quite useful

What is Zelenskyy’s ‘Victory Plan’ against Russia?

Long-range missiles and urgent NATO membership for Ukraine: Here’s more about Zelenskyy’s plan for victory.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[TopCat]

Aljazeera on 23rd September quoted Zensky as saying the “entire plan” will be ready by “early November” . Elements of the plan have already been circulated to key US officials presumably for briefing Biden before the 'presentation' and some have been mentioned publicly.

Aljazera's summary is quite useful

What is Zelenskyy’s ‘Victory Plan’ against Russia?

Long-range missiles and urgent NATO membership for Ukraine: Here’s more about Zelenskyy’s plan for victory.

www.aljazeera.com

Thanks. Yes several details now revealed.

What do you think of them?

 

[The39thStep]

Thanks. Yes several details now revealed.

What do you think of them?

Firstly I think the US elections provide a disincentive to any immediate rejection/agreement by the US . I can't see a debate about red lines and the threat of nuclear war being helpful to either Trump or Harris. It's also been reported that Zelensky and Scholz have agreed to a further 'peace' conference that this time will include Russia. Scholz, who is facing electoral issues himself, is quoted as saying "I believe that now is the time to discuss how to arrive at peace from this state of war, indeed at a faster pace," I can't see any momentum in more countries coming on board to support Ukraines peace conferences and tbh I can't see Russia accepting an invitation. So this might be background noise and just a way of trying to hold on to those countries outside of NATO who attend these things.

As for the proposals, that we know about, it reads more like a wishlist than a strategy and I suspect that the most likely outcome would be some concessions and lots of fudge. I think the bigger question is what is plan B, or should there be a plan B, and if this is the case and bearing in mind the fall out after the failed second Ukraine offensive how this is framed by both Ukraine and NATO. The narrative that Ukraine did its best but was let down by its allies is one that Ukraine's allies will want to avoid but one that may well be pushed by some elements in Ukraine itself.

 

[StoneRoad]

"Double tap" attack on Sumy hospital

Double attack on medical facility, dead and wounded: Сonsequences of shelling of Sumy

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

7 dead and 12 seriously wounded - including a Dr & nurse from the now destroyed A&E department.

e2a - sadly, I suspect that these figures will increase.

​

 

[Dystopiary]

"Double tap" attack on Sumy hospital

Double attack on medical facility, dead and wounded: Сonsequences of shelling of Sumy

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

7 dead and 12 seriously wounded - including a Dr & nurse from the now destroyed A&E department

​

8 now known to have been killed in the attack on the Sumy hospital and "at least six other civilians were killed throughout Ukraine over the past 24 hours, authorities said."

link from the Guardian

 

[teuchter]

Meanwhile other peace plans immediately dismissed by the man.

Can you summarise what the China/Brazil peace plan actually is, and why it should not be dismissed?

 

[ska invita]

What do you think of them?

Theres nothing new in it apart from wanting to fire into Russia more

 

[Dogsauce]

Putting aside your attempt to personalise this. I ask you, which major allies of Russia has Putin antagonised? Russia is cementing relationships rather than fracturing them.

Russia has no ‘major’ allies. And they’ve pissed off Israel at least.

 

[TopCat]

No real news yet on the victory plan.

 

[cupid_stunt]

No real news yet on the victory plan.

You expect it to be made public?

That would be odd.

 

[Pickman's model]

You expect it to be made public?

That would be odd.

Either it works out and it's made public or it doesn't and it's made public.

 

[TopCat]

You expect it to be made public?

That would be odd.

BBC goes into some detail about the visit last week and the reception Zelensky got. Zelensky gives his Ukraine 'victory plan' a hard sell in the US - did the pitch fall flat?

 

[teqniq]

This does not look good:

Ukraine faces its darkest hour

 

[Pickman's model]

This does not look good:

Ukraine faces its darkest hour

there's a famous irish song which observes that night is darkest just before the dawn.

 

[teuchter]

there's a famous irish song which observes that night is darkest just before the dawn.

Which, of course, is nonsense.

 

[TopCat]

You expect it to be made public?

That would be odd.

I would expect Zelensky to give a speech about the slightest agreement.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I would expect Zelensky to give a speech about the slightest agreement.

I wouldn't, at least not until any agreement is reached, which is unlikely until sometime after the US presidential election.

 

[Pickman's model]

surprised no mention of the plight of the ukrainian forces in vuhledar

MSN

 

[The39thStep]

Can you summarise what the China/Brazil peace plan actually is, and why it should not be dismissed?

Summary

1. Non-escalation or provocations by either side.
2. An international peace conference accepted by both Russia and Ukraine, which includes a "fair discussion" of all peace plans.
3. An increase of humanitarian assistance to "prevent a humanitarian crisis on a larger scale," as well as an exchange of prisoners of war, and no attacks on civilians.
4. All possible efforts must be made to "prevent nuclear proliferation and avoid nuclear crisis."
5. Attacks on nuclear power plants and other peaceful nuclear facilities "must be opposed."
6. Enhanced international cooperation on several issues in order to "protect the stability of global industrial and supply chains."

Following a presentation by China and Brazil at the U.N a further statement agreed by 17 countries was released which also included references to the U.N charter regarding respecting "respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, respecting the legitimate concerns of states" . Also some reference to ' inclusive diplomacy' ( which hopefully might be based on the processes used in Northern Ireland and Columbia ?)

Joint Communique_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

In short it's an attempt to set out principles and processes for diplomacy and conflict transformation rather than define the content of any negotiated settlement.

 

[editor]

This does not look good:

Ukraine faces its darkest hour

Imagine being the kind of person that gives a thumbs up to an article detailing how an illegally invaded democratic country - which has suffered mass civilian casualties at the hands of a neo fascist invader - is facing its darkest hour.

 

[Pickman's model]

such an article might receive approbation for raising the difficulties faced whereas so often we're told how well ukraine either are doing or will do - as per eg the incursion into russia or the way success was eagerly anticipated in last year's summer offensive

 

[Elpenor]

the article states that attempts to end the war by way of a peace treaty or negotiations with Russia that means compromising on Ukraine’s demands may trigger a far right coup by factions that want the war to continue, though it’s unclear if any of those factions post on this thread.

If they do perhaps we can expect a revision of the house / wife / neighbour analogy to accommodate the coup

 

[Elpenor]

Imagine being the kind of person that gives a thumbs up to an article detailing how an illegally invaded democratic country - which has suffered mass civilian casualties at the hands of a neo fascist invader - is facing its darkest hour.

I don’t think that is at all fair - I think we all know that the reaction “like” on here does not always equal “approval” as it can also mean “thank you for this useful information”

If it was a “love” reaction you may have had a point but it wasn’t.

 

[two sheds]

You'd imagine there's a high probability that just before Ukraine does succumb, so at a point where it doesn't matter whether or not they get any more armaments from the west, they decide to launch everything they've got into Russia.

 

[tim]

You'd imagine there's a high probability that just before Ukraine does succumb, so at a point where it doesn't matter whether or not they get any more armaments from the west, they decide to launch everything they've got into Russia.

Neither side is likely to succumb any time soon.

 

[TopCat]

This does not look good:

Ukraine faces its darkest hour

A fascist coup against Zelensky’s government during negotiations is a real prospect.

 

[two sheds]

Neither side is likely to succumb any time soon.

Hopefully that's true of Ukraine, but when one side succumbs it does often happen all of a sudden